Critical Point on Berrios Extension

Coincidentally I am writing this on the exact same date I suggested a similar result last year. The Minnesota Twins have not effectively developed a starting pitcher in quite some time, and with Jose Berrios being the best thing to happen in that period, locking him up long term makes some sense.

Last year the suggestion came on the heels of extensions for the Phillies Aaron Nola and Yankees Luis Severino. Those were both four-year extensions and paid $45 and $40 million apiece respectively. Going into 2021 Berrios is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. For 2021 he’ll pitch for $5.6 million, just over a $1.5 million increase from his 2020 salary. With a final year of arbitration eligibility in 2022, he should see a number get very near the $10 million mark.

Coming off somewhat of a down season, Berrios posted a 4.00 ERA for the first time in his career. It was just a 12-game sample size and the 5.92 ERA through his first five turns really did him in. From that point he posted a 2.79 ERA across 38.2 IP and allowed opposing batters just a .598 OPS the final seven times he took the mound.

Over the past few seasons velocity has been a chief concern regarding Berrios’ output. Having focused on an offseason training regimen that builds endurance to withstand the rigors of a full season, Minnesota had keyed in on their Puerto Rican starter being able to avoid his August and September swoon. We never got to see that in action during 2020 due to the truncated season, but the 9.7 K/9 was a career high, and a 94.9 mph average fastball velocity also topped the charts.

Jose is still just 26 years old and will turn 27 shortly after the 2021 campaign gets underway. He should just now be entering his prime, and looking for him to take another step forward remains a key focus for the Twins. If that should happen, he could find himself among the Cy Young conversation for the first time in his career, and knocking on the door of a big payday, that’s hardly a bad resume builder.

Minnesota has recently locked up Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sano. Although there’s been suggestion of a slightly decreased payroll, future cost certainty is always of importance to organizations, and Berrios provides a very compelling opportunity. Both Kepler and Polanco took what appear to be team friendly deals. The Twins had to rebuild some favor with Jose and did so in the form of a $500k incentive this offseason. Maybe there’s a middle ground where the two sides can hammer out something more substantial.

Even if Jose Berrios never develops into a bonafide ace for the Twins, pitchers of his caliber don’t come around too often, and he’s going to get paid handsomely on the open market. If there’s a way for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to keep him around long time, exploring that option this offseason makes a good deal of sense.

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