Ted, a lot of these projections can differ widely depending on whether the author is talking about what "will" happen versus what the author predicts, or would like to see.    This is a perfect case in point.    I, too, like Thorpe's projectability, and feel he will show himself to be a strong rotation candidate.

OTOH, it sure appears that a rotation of Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey, and Maeda is going to be hard to dislodge, barring injury.    I would also suggest that, given the roster opening(s), Chacin would be easy for management to slot into the remaining spot.    That would leave Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Dobnak (all with options) as 1-3, with Duran and Balazovic in the wings, as well as the return of Pineda and Hill at some point in the season.

I know you are putting no timeline on any of this (nor am I); I'm just suggesting that Thorpe's opportunity arises primarily with an injury during spring training to one of the guys above him, occurring before Pineda's return.    My fear is that the leash on Chacin (even to exploit him as a showcase candidate for trade value) will be long enough that he alone will bridge the gap until 40 games in.    If TSD (Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak) doesn't crack the top 5 in the first month, it is going to be increasingly difficult for them to find a place when Pineda and Hill push them to the 8-10 slots, with Balazovic and Duran behind.    Once Balazovic and Duran have half a season more under their respective belts at AA or higher, I would put them on an even playing field with TSD - those 5 will fight for their own pecking order in spots 8-12.

For the 2020 season, however, my guess is that Thorpe is #8 on that list based on in-season performance.    Just not sure he will be so much better than 5-7, quickly enough, for it to matter.

With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the 26-man roster as the 5th pitcher.

 

Boy, I sure hope not. I hope Thorpe or Dobnak can seize that 5th spot, and let Chacin stay as depth at AAA (until he opts out or whatever). I'd much rather go with the guy with far more upside (Thorpe) or at least the guy who pitched great down the stretch (Dobnak) rather than the junkballer who's at the tail end of his career (Chacin).

Did Thorpe ever make any of the prominent top-100 lists? I don't recall that happening, but I could be mistaken.

Did Thorpe ever make any of the prominent top-100 lists? I don't recall that happening, but I could be mistaken.

He was 101st in 2014 and 91st in 2015 at Baseball Prospectus

I have not seen anything that excites me about Thorpe and that is why we have been cluttering up the rubber with players like Chacin.  I would love to have Thorpe make the move, but I think he really lost his chance last year when Dobnak passed him.

I have not seen anything that excites me about Thorpe and that is why we have been cluttering up the rubber with players like Chacin.  I would love to have Thorpe make the move, but I think he really lost his chance last year when Dobnak passed him.

Agreed on this - but every year is a new year, and I think with no lefty's in the starting 5, Thorpe or Smeltzer will be given every chance if all else is equal vs Dobs & Chacin. 

Thorp really hasn't proven himself at AAA yet.   Lets give him some time.  I would think he will start and probably stay in AAA for most of the season unless injuries hit very early.   Pineda coming back and Hill several months later, I don't see Thorp having much of an opportunity in 2020.

Thorp really hasn't proven himself at AAA yet. 

He's got an 11.1 K/9 2.4 BB/9 and 1.203 WHIP in over 115 Triple-A IP