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Twins Rotation Provides Intriguing Depth


Ted Schwerzler

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Over the weekend the Minnesota Twins inked Jhoulys Chacin to a minor league deal that’s worth roughly $1.5 million if he makes the big-league club. With the non-roster invitees yet to be unveiled, and some chatter going around, he’s probably not the last arm to be brought in. Although the rotation didn’t experience a big jolt, Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to have some interesting options.

 

A week ago, the assumed Opening Day rotation would have been Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Randy Dobnak, and Lewis Thorpe. With every new arm brought in, the thought is that the shift takes place from the bottom up. Now obviously a minor league deal is not guaranteed, and the reality is results must match some level of expectation during Spring Training. Assuming that happens though, Minnesota is putting themselves in a nice spot.

 

Chacin was downright terrible in 2019. Pitching for the Brewers and Red Sox, he posted a 6.01 ERA 5.88 FIP and walked four per nine while allowing 2.2 HR/9. A slider first pitcher that was very good in 2018 however, there’s a lot to like here. Jhoulys is an 11-year veteran with a career 4.03 ERA and three sub 4.00 ERA seasons from 2015-2018. It’s a decent gamble that he could have a better 2020 than Bailey, who is on a guaranteed contract from the Twins.

 

In 2019 Minnesota needed to get starts from just 10 different pitchers, and five guys made all but 16 of the initial trips to the mound. That’s extraordinary, reflective of strong performance, and more importantly indicative of superior health and good fortune. Rather than banking on that taking place again, Wes Johnson has been given an arsenal to utilize going forward.

 

Randy Dobnak posted a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in his debut season en route to a Postseason start. Lewis Thorpe is a former top prospect that looks the part of a breakout arm. Devin Smeltzer has become somewhat of an afterthought despite being a key acquisition from the Dodgers and having a strong rookie season of his own. That’s all before we even touch on Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic. Then you add in the Michael Pineda will be back after suspension and Rich Hill will be healthy down the stretch, it’s safe to see Minnesota is overflowing with arms.

 

We don’t yet know what level all the options will perform at, but the Twins have both opportunity and the mounts to feed in the year ahead. Plugging in the right guys in the most opportune situations will be the task of Johnson and Baldelli. There’s probably opportunity to flip an asset or two, and there’s definitely a level of insurance built into the roster construction here.

 

I have no idea which Chacin shows up in 2020, but it appears Johnson is intrigued enough to work on getting the 2018 guy to take the mound. If you throw Taijuan Walker or someone else into the mix as well, the rotation that didn’t get its impact arm has an inside track at being both very good as well as very well supplemented.

 

Who makes starts when should be up in the air for the next month or so, but give it to Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, they’ve done work stocking the cupboard with plenty of ammunition.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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I am not usually keen on the strategy of signing multiple down trending pitchers with the hopes one of them reverses course. But since Twins missed on "impact" pitching and have 2 pitchers returning during the season. It seems like a reasonable strategy. Low risk with possible moderate reward.

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I am not usually keen on the strategy of signing multiple down trending pitchers with the hopes one of them reverses course. But since Twins missed on "impact" pitching and have 2 pitchers returning during the season. It seems like a reasonable strategy. Low risk with possible moderate reward.

I'm not sure that either Bailey of Chacin are trending down. Bailey finished 2019 really strong, and Chacin was great in 2018. Given what Minnesota has internally though, they're stacking up pitchers on the back end that should be more than capable of quality innings.

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I feel like using guys like this to "bolster" the depth of the rotation is like shopping for meat at the dollar store.

 

Sure, not all of those dusty cans simply labeled "meat" are going to cause explosive diarrhea, but chances are there's also not a nice filet in there either. 

 

At the end of the day, you're going to wish you'd splurged and spent your money on on the steak or even the hotdogs and left the cans of mystery meat for someone else.

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I feel like using guys like this to "bolster" the depth of the rotation is like shopping for meat at the dollar store.

 

Sure, not all of those dusty cans simply labeled "meat" are going to cause explosive diarrhea, but chances are there's also not a nice filet in there either. 

 

At the end of the day, you're going to wish you'd splurged and spent your money on on the steak or even the hotdogs and left the cans of mystery meat for someone else.

Here's the thing though, you can't appreciate a steak from Manny's unless you also are good with having Outback every once in a while.

 

There's only so many premium options, and it's the quality of the whole that gets you to the Postseason and competes throughout the year. Minnesota can, and should, still add an arm. What they have done already is more than well-reasoned however.

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Here's the thing though, you can't appreciate a steak from Manny's unless you also are good with having Outback every once in a while.

 

There's only so many premium options, and it's the quality of the whole that gets you to the Postseason and competes throughout the year. Minnesota can, and should, still add an arm. What they have done already is more than well-reasoned however.

 

True, but so far they've added Spam (Hill), Gorton's Fish Sticks (Bailey), and the aforementioned mystery meat (Chacin) to the menu.

 

They haven't splurged at all, really. Maybe they're waiting for a coupon or something.

 

The only way adding all of these veteran question marks and retreads to the stash of already-existing young guys is if it "raises the floor," as everyone likes to say.

 

In order for that to happen you have to *really* believe that at 33 years old Homer Bailey reinvented himself completely; that at age 40, coming off of what is essentially experimental surgery and a 15-year career that has consisted of 2 healthy seasons, Rich Hill is going to give you anything; and a guy that somehow had his best years in Colorado a decade ago is anything more than a break glass in case of emergency option.

 

That's a lot of things that have to break right.

 

Personally, once they missed out on quality, I'd have preferred they skipped the quantity and let the young guys run with it. We probably haven't seen their ceilings, but we've definitely seen the floors of the veterans they brought in and it ain't pretty.

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I'd agree that I think Lewis Thorpe is a breakout waiting to happen. Duran and Blazovic aren't going to be blocked when they force there way in. From there, it's up to Chacin and Bailey to show their worth early, with Hill and Pineda supplementing.

 

I fully believe a deal is swung that adds to the Berrios/Odorizzi group by the time the Trade Deadline has passed.

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every case has different unique characteristics. Taking a no risk chance on Walker is no different than what they've done with Pineda not once but twice. I would argue Walker's career has been just as good if not better than Pineda's thus far. Bailey has been performing pretty consistently if not great ever since he got healthy. These two moves would be fine. However the Rich Hill situation plays out could really put us over the top...or not.

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every case has different unique characteristics. Taking a no risk chance on Walker is no different than what they've done with Pineda not once but twice. I would argue Walker's career has been just as good if not better than Pineda's thus far. Bailey has been performing pretty consistently if not great ever since he got healthy. These two moves would be fine. However the Rich Hill situation plays out could really put us over the top...or not.

 

After today’s report, I’m pretty much out on Walker even on an MiLB deal. His velo is at 86-88. That’s downright terrible. There’s no such thing as a bad MiLB deal, but if he’s that bad right now, he likely won’t be right by his opt outs. It’s also not close to the Pineda situation with that info. Pineda worked on rehab with the Twins and they monitored his progress getting him back. Walker sees himself as ready to go having completed rehab, and his stuff wouldn’t be close to worthy of an MLB shot. He’s closer to being cooked in that scenario than he is valuable.

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