The case against: .264/.322/.414.

I definitely agree that Marwin could be a great 3B defensively. My issue with handing him the keys full time is his offense. He was a below average offensive player last year, and has been just barely above average in his career. The bar to clear for league average at corner infield is even higher. I think you would lose a significant amount of his value by making him an everyday player at one position as well.

I know it's assumed that we can make some sacrifices on offense, but how much do we want to do that? Can we just assume that Sano is going to take to 1B right away and that the defensive improvement will offset the value lost by downgrading the offense and losing Marwin's versatility? 

I know that Marwin would be a solid defender at 3B, but I'd argue that coming into the offseason off 101 wins with a head full of steam and settling for moving our utility player to a full time role, paired with the other positions we've had to settle on, would be disappointing.

Is OAA a season’s total? What does It translate to in terms of runs? And even wins? 

For example, does this mean Sano’s -5 gives up a little less than an out per month? If that’s accurate, when I think of it that way, that doesn’t seem like much to be overly worried about. Sure, that theoretical out might open the floodgates for a four-run inning that costs the game, but if It happens when they’re up 6-0 and May strikes out the next guy to end the inning, that’s minimal effect. I wouldn’t want to sacrifice much offense anywhere for that degree of poor defense. 

Is OAA a season’s total? What does It translate to in terms of runs? And even wins? 

 

For example, does this mean Sano’s -5 gives up a little less than an out per month? If that’s accurate, when I think of it that way, that doesn’t seem like much to be overly worried about. Sure, that theoretical out might open the floodgates for a four-run inning that costs the game, but if It happens when they’re up 6-0 and May strikes out the next guy to end the inning, that’s minimal effect. I wouldn’t want to sacrifice much offense anywhere for that degree of poor defense. 

There's no situational context for these stats but it's "outs above average". That doesn't mean that Sano is responsible for 5 outs not being converted, it means it's 5 less than the average 3B. The significance of that -5 is much more than just the 5 outs it displays.

But the objective is not simply to 'find' someone that can handle the 3rd-base (or first-base) role defensively.

The objective is to construct a roster with the best possible lineup options, day in and day out. And to do that you want...

a: corner infielders that can hit like corner infielders

b: competent utility player (or players) available on a daily basis

Inserting Gonzalez as the every-day third-baseman fails on both accounts.

But the objective is not simply to 'find' someone that can handle the 3rd-base (or first-base) role defensively.

 

The objective is to construct a roster with the best possible lineup options, day in and day out. And to do that you want...

a: corner infielders that can hit like corner infielders

b: competent utility player (or players) available on a daily basis

 

Inserting Gonzalez as the every-day third-baseman fails on both accounts.

But who can do that? If the Twins are able to sign Donaldson, great, but outside of him I'd rather just slide Sano over to first than sign any of the other remaining options. Minnesota still would have a really good lineup and Gonzalez's bat should be around league average. As the season moves on someone like Kirilloff (1b) or Lewis (3B) could emerge and send Gonzalez back to a utility role anyway.

There's no situational context for these stats but it's "outs above average". That doesn't mean that Sano is responsible for 5 outs not being converted, it means it's 5 less than the average 3B. The significance of that -5 is much more than just the 5 outs it displays.

Right, but what I'm asking is whether this is saying that Sano performed at a level where we missed out on approximately five outs over the course of the season compared to if we had an average 3B there? Or that he missed about 12 outs compared to having Marwin there?

I recognize that it doesn't identify which specific outs he cost us over the course of the season. I'm just saying that costing us an average of less than one out per month compared to the average 3B doesn't seem like much of a cost to have a monster hitter there. I don't know if this is an accurate way to think about it, but if 4.5 earned runs over 27 outs converts to about 0.83 runs per 5 outs, that's not much.

If nothing changes like author states, he suggests Gonzalez to play 3B  which I believe is the best solution too. People argue that Gonzalez bat isn`t good enough which I disagree. Late spring training gave Gonzalez a slow start. A full ST will give him better preparation to start stronger. But I`m hoping that a trade at 3B or SS will happen, still I believe pitching is the priority

I am on board with Gonzalez playing third if we don't get Donaldson. Playing the utility roll and not knowing where or if you are playing any particular day is not conducive to getting any flow at the dish. I think he would likely put up 25 HR and hit 250 which would be respectable.... given the other choices I think he would be fine there.