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Twins 2019 - minimalistic approch


beckmt

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As the Twins 2018 season ends - this is my attempt to prodict what the Twins will do for 2019.

Assumptions:

1. Joe Mauer retires

2. The FO decides the Twins are too far away to put a lot of money into next year.

3. With Gibson, Pineda, and Ordrizzi all having expiring contracts at the end of next year Twins decide to see what they have coming up, rather than throwing a lot of extra money into trying to catch lightning in a bottle and Cleveland at the same time.

 

40 man roster:

Twins let a number of players depart. Belise, Slegers, Morrison, Forsythe, McGill, Pettit, Gimminez, Granite, Gratarol This should leave plenty of room to move pieces around as I now have 10 openings on the 40 man.

Adds from 60 day DL Mejia, Pineda

Adds not on 40 man. Thrope, Wade, Gordon (they may be others I have missed)

 

Free agents: One mid level or 4/5 type to compete for a starter job, 1 significant FA (upper range 3/36 range) reliever, 1 - 2 mid level relievers to compete for jobs next year. One FA to play MI on a 1 - 2 year contract or maybe Escobar (this may take 3/30 type money give or take).

Other choice would be to send 1 - 3 of starting pitcher depth for a #3 type on a bad club with 2 - 3 years of control (Duffy - but this is just an example).

 

This leaves us with:

Starters: Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Oderizzi, Stewart(or FA)

Bullpen: FA1, FA2, May, Rodgers, Hildenberger, Drake, Reed

Catcher: Castro

Infield: Austin, Polonco, Sano, FA

Outfield: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave (Grossman, Wade)

Utility: Adrianza, Garver, Astudillo

 

Spend: Depends on whether Twins sign Berrios and/or Rosario to long term contracts and spend on FA pitching. My guess based on this roster would be in the $80 million range (less if no current players are extended).

 

Other assumption is that Buxton makes the team (otherwise have room for both Grossman and Wade in this scenario.

Have a desire to have players that can make a pitcher work and less swing and miss (they tend to strike out in key situations).

 

Having stated this (have at it). Will hope to post a balanced and a higher spending assumption later this week.

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Interesting. The Twins have to make a decision of Kyle Gibson. Does he work into the plans. That will be an interesting negotiation to watch.

 

They also need to think about extending Berrios and Rosario. They have to make a decision on where Kepler and Polanco fit into longterm plans.

 

Sano is the wild card. Is he a first baseman. Is he a Designated hitter. Is he a third baseman. If he is the DH, you don't need Grossman AND Cave, especially with Lamonte in the wings. But then again, what about Buxton?

 

Man, Sano and Buxton blew it, but will be given every chance to succeed still again as youth and service time is still on the side of the Twins.

 

The Twins have 10 names to write into the rotation, so they basically have a full major league staff and full Red Wings staff, plus a couple of names that should be at AA (Wells for one). I think you stick with rebuilding from within and that the September looks gave you enough to know if Gonsalves, Littell, Stewart can pitch in the majors. Remember, we still have Romero. And people, don't write-off lefty Mejia.

 

Same with the bullpen. The most expensive arm is Addison Reed. I doubt that he will step into the closer role, although he could be the backup if Trevor May doesn't happen. And, sign a bunch of fringe guys and look for some glory. It worked this season with Magill and Drake, both of whom will stay on the 40-man and have a chance to break camp. The Twins will add Jake Reed and Nick Anderson. They might see future still in Luke Bard. A lot of fine hard-throwing arms that just need the experience. Be curious to see if the Twins keep Baxendale and Eades at the minor league level. You never know.

 

So the Twins could have $50-70 million to spend in this off-season to reach payroll levels of 2018. I doubt they will sign 4-5 free agents to fill all big holes and be a challenger in that way with the Indians. Instead, they may just gamble on sneaking a rebuild.

 

But not sure how they are going to sell these guys to us fans!

 

 

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I tend to agree with a minimalist approach.

 

So, my guess when it comes to free agents:

 

One targeted big spend reliever signed over the winter, plus:

 

Two "spring training / bargain basement" one-year signings. The new FO might see these one year signings as a means to an end to pick up prospects come the trade deadline.

 

Oh, and we'll have to wait and see who the Yankees lay out on their garage sale table.

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I think other 40-man roster candidates are Zander Weil, Tyler Jay and Jaylin Davis. I'm never sure about this issue, so correct me if I have the wrong group.

 

Romero will be in the running for 5th starter, along with Mejia (who is out of options).  

 

Lot of moving parts going into 2019 - Health, SP contracts, Mauer, free agency. It's going to be interesting. 

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Mejia will be pitching somewhere for us. And he will definitely get a rotation shot. With a little good luck, he and Romero will BOTH be in the rotation with Pineda or Odorizzi moving to the pen.

 

I tend to believe the FO will take a small step back and persue a more minimalist approach, as stated. I also believe they will make the one "major" pen move and then 1 or 2 minimal signings are sort through the depth they have. And while there are some unproven guys there, there is still depth to roll through. FA, May, Rogers, and a rebound by Hildenberger and/or Reed, (hopefully both), is not too bad of a beginning.

 

I also think there will be at least one quality infielder signed. Our depth, except for Gordon potentially, is all too low in the system. They will add one good piece there, and then look for another Adrianza type.

 

I'm having a hard time seeing a major move in the rotation. I wouldn't be opposed to it! But...especially if you consider the new "opener" strategy as an option...you have Berrios, Gibson, Romero, Mejia, Pineda and Odorizzi with Stewart, Gonsalves, Littell, maybe Slegers, and both Thorpe and Wells at some point for depth.

 

I'm speculating work on the pen and infield and pretty much status quo on the rotation at this point.

 

*Side note: All 3 of Gibson, Pineda and Odorizzi could potentially be gone after 2019. Not say any or all 3 will, but jt coukd happen for various reasons. This could change the dynamics of the FO thinking.

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Interesting. The Twins have to make a decision of Kyle Gibson. Does he work into the plans. That will be an interesting negotiation to watch.

 

They also need to think about extending Berrios and Rosario. They have to make a decision on where Kepler and Polanco fit into longterm plans.

 

Sano is the wild card. Is he a first baseman. Is he a Designated hitter. Is he a third baseman. If he is the DH, you don't need Grossman AND Cave, especially with Lamonte in the wings. But then again, what about Buxton?

 

Man, Sano and Buxton blew it, but will be given every chance to succeed still again as youth and service time is still on the side of the Twins.

 

The Twins have 10 names to write into the rotation, so they basically have a full major league staff and full Red Wings staff, plus a couple of names that should be at AA (Wells for one). I think you stick with rebuilding from within and that the September looks gave you enough to know if Gonsalves, Littell, Stewart can pitch in the majors. Remember, we still have Romero. And people, don't write-off lefty Mejia.

 

Same with the bullpen. The most expensive arm is Addison Reed. I doubt that he will step into the closer role, although he could be the backup if Trevor May doesn't happen. And, sign a bunch of fringe guys and look for some glory. It worked this season with Magill and Drake, both of whom will stay on the 40-man and have a chance to break camp. The Twins will add Jake Reed and Nick Anderson. They might see future still in Luke Bard. A lot of fine hard-throwing arms that just need the experience. Be curious to see if the Twins keep Baxendale and Eades at the minor league level. You never know.

 

So the Twins could have $50-70 million to spend in this off-season to reach payroll levels of 2018. I doubt they will sign 4-5 free agents to fill all big holes and be a challenger in that way with the Indians. Instead, they may just gamble on sneaking a rebuild.

 

But not sure how they are going to sell these guys to us fans!

Only note, Twins have about $100 Million to reach last years payroll, probably about 80 - 90 after arbitration and raises.  Depends on whether Twins are able to extend either/or Rosario and Berrios.  They would need to extend both I feel to come close to a $90 million payroll in 2019 in this formula.

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