The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best
Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $1
Terry Ryan has had success finding bargains in winter free agency. Kurt Suzuki was an all star. Jared Burton was a top set up man. Ryan Doumit provided a very good bat. In all three cases, the Twins chose to extend into their thirties rather than sell. It is not possible to know what the offers could have been for those players. They were all performing well enough to be valued by other teams and there would have been offers. All three could point to some aspect of their games or health that had
Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organizat
I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will lik
I thought and hoped this would be the year where the Twins would go with youth. I should have known better. The direction for the winter roster construction was made clear when they retained Josh Willingham last August. Earl Battey was the catcher when I first became a young Twin fan. I recall his western oil 8x10 card hanging my wall among other Twin heroes. Those years were great. I didn't know how lucky I was to follow a team that was competitive or at least entertaining every year. There h
With the signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier, comments overwhelmingly went like these below. No risk? No impact on the 40 man roster? Alex Presley Brooks Raley Darin Mastroianni Signing decline phase players (even to minor league contracts) does have a risk. It kept the Twins from seeking other younger solutions. It invests playing time into players with no upside. It costs a few younger players on the 40 man roster who have a better long term shot at being a role
As I read posts about the decisions the Twins have made and predictions about their roster, I wonder if they are in danger of entering a cycle of mediocrity. They have been there before, signing older players on the down side of their careers with the thought they would be the necessary difference in the coming season. Ultimately they were not and the Twins entered the following season with the same holes and questions. Of course there are many motivators for signing the veterans. Sometimes th
I was surprised at the suggestion earlier that the Twins should consider extending Burton. They have him locked up next year. In two years he will be 33. On the other hand, he has been very valuable this year. My first thought was it was a horrible idea. Take his season next year at the bargain level. Don't buy his 33 year old season now! That was clearly the minority opinion. I went to Baseball Reference for clarity. I searched for every season pitched by a 31 year old set up man from 2000-
I have a little different format for this one as much has been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in "Another Reason Closers are Overated". As I read his article is whether he was asking the right questions. The question should really be what happens to closers the following year. It should be how many teams have the same closer. How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn P
I think everyone would agree that the Twins greatest need is starting pitching. In order to get major league starting pitching, the Twins probably need to offer starting pitching prospects. Look at all of the Oakland deals where they traded established pitching for pitching prospects. The Twins don't have starting pitching prospects to offer. Conversely, the most attractive way to get starting pitching prospects is to trade major league ready starting pitching. Twins certainly don't have st
There are two teams with winning records the last three seasons in the Grapefruit League. The Twins and Tigers. In fact, the Twins have the longest string of winning records and haven't had a losing season since 2007 thanks to the performance of players like Aaron Hicks, Luke Hughes, Cole DeVries and Matt Maloney. ... and it means nothing. Spring training records and individual stat lines have no meaning. They shouldn't be used to argue that one player or another should make the roster.
I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the oth
I love this site. Thanks guys! I enjoy reading the thoughts and projections for the opening roster. However, I cringe every time I see anyone use spring data in support of a player making a roster. All winter long, I listened to Gleeman and the Geek remind me that Parmelee's 86 plate appeaeances last fall were not predictive of the future. They are essentially correct. There have been some significant studies about sample size and at that size we might start learning something about contact ra
This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration f
"I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus Read the article a
The early ZIPS projections were reported midweek and the AL Central has sobering information for the Twins. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8599684/projecting-american-league-central-players-teams-2013-mlb Note: Unfortunately, you will need an insider account to access the link above. The Twins in their construction are projected for 66 wins and 5th place in the AL Central. Entering the 2012 season they had a projected 70 win team from ZIPS so in the ZIPS lens the Twi
Baseball Prospectus has pitch framing data organized by battery. Framing data by battery The data looks at pitches where the umpire needs to make the call and compares actual strikes with predicted strikes. While looking at splits creates small sample sizes, I wondered if it would be clear that Josmil Pinto's framing skills are significantly worse than Kurt Suzuki. The natural place to start is Glenn Perkins. Chances Predicted Actual +/- Josmil Pint
Two topics that appeared in the forums led me to wonder which teams are getting the platoon advantage. How did the Indians do it? I look at their numbers and see a combined 6.1 WAR from Jan Gomes and Ryan Raburn. Those cheap additions will be the difference between contending for the wild card and being on the fringe. Francona has found a role for them to put up fantastic numbers. We also debated about how platooning might help the Twins. I wondered how often teams are getting the platoon
In the current era of baseball it doesn't make sense to quantify pitchers as #X starter. It used to be that #1 or #2 starters would get more starts because they would skip over guys at the back end of the rotation. I think Verlander and the Tigers are the only team that did that with any consistency. Virtually all teams roll their starters so that all slots get about the same number of starts. Even when the opportunity at the all star break comes to skip some starts at the back end, those oppo
Glen Perkins talked about Josmil Pinto and his ability to frame pitches. He didn't mention Kurt Suzuki. I guess he wasn't asked. Nor was he asked about Ryan Doumit in previous years. Since 2011 it has been debated about the Twins decision making on catcher and defense. At best, they are waiting to see if the data that has been available for many season has validity. At worst, they are ignorant and that ignorance shows in their roster decisions as well as their development of catchers in the mi
The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trad
It will be interesting to watch three teams as they try to pull themselves out of the basement. The Twins, Cubs and and Astros all have set out different path towards success. They also represent the three very different markets and revenue streams. The Cubs have purged salaries in trades and then are putting money back in for next year. They will probably not match last year's payroll, but they will spend the most of the three. They also have the most revenue. Will the additions be enough o
Mike Berardino reported yesterday that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to gibe the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has shown to be a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. P
The Twins are a team of many needs. Doumit fills the need of back up catcher and emergency RF. He hits well for a catcher, but at best adequately for a DH or RF. He doesn't defend well at either spot. As he declines, his best role will be back up catcher and pinch hitter. He will do that job well. He will be a good guy in the club house. Essentially by signing him now, they have begun the winter process of rebuilding this team through free agency. Is this the best first step? Is this one of
I really hold back what I would like to say about then payroll arguments here. The fact that people don't accept the amount taken in dictates the amount going out requires one of two things. Extreme financial ignorance or fanatical bias that prevents the acceptance of something some basic. I did not change the argument. It's the same idiocy over and over. Do you really want to be on the side that suggests revenues does not determine spending capacity?
At this point in the pre-season, I’m just so happy to be seeing games again, I don’t care about the Twins record in 2023. I think they’ll win it all, unrealistically speaking 🙂
I really hold back what I would like to say about then payroll arguments here. The fact that people don't accept the amount taken in dictates the amount going out requires one of two things. Extreme financial ignorance or fanatical bias that prevents the acceptance of something some basic. I did not change the argument. It's the same idiocy over and over. Do you really want to be on the side that suggests revenues does not determine spending capacity?· 0 replies
