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TwinsGeek.com

A blog by John Bonnes in Twins Daily

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Entries in this blog

Stealing Second With Runners On The Corners

I just listened to Denard Span short circuit a potential rally by trying to steal second base with runners on the corners and one out. He was caught. I wondered if that was an especially stupid decision.   It turns out, it's not that risky. Or at least it's not if you accept that a baserunner usually needs to steal bases about 2/3 of the time to be effective.   Generally, one studies something like this using Palmer & Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certai

Changing Focus: The Danny Valencia & Francisco Liriano Moves

At some (very depressing) point, as a season becomes turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight.   At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight.   Tonig

Opening Presents Too Early

Brian Dozier turns 25 next Tuesday.   That’s not young for a prospect. This spring he barely made the cut of Baseball America’s top 10 Twins prospects. Above him on that list were Chris Parmelee (who is hitting .203), Liam Hendriks (who is being demoted to AAA-Rochester) and Joe Benson (who was demoted yesterday to AA-New Britain yesterday). He has never hit even double-digits home runs in his minor league career. Prior to this year, he was never a fulltime shortstop in the minors.   Anticipatio

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 40: Morneau down, Dozier Up

Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau's latest injury, Brian Dozier's arrival, swapping Clete Thomas for Erik Komatsu, giving Scott Diamond a chance in place of Liam Hendriks, their new PickPointz game, Ron Gardenhire's job security, bad news for Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla, answering questions submitted by listeners via Twitter, and the latest from the minor leagues with special guest Seth Stohs. Here are:   the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on

Just Better Than Awful

Even prior to tonight’s shellacking, the Twins collective ERA sits at 5.59, last in the major leagues. On the Gleeman and the Geek show last week, I asked “Can a team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in pitching even pretend to be competitive?” It turns out they can.   Since 2000, there have been five teams that made the playoffs even though they ranked in the bottom third of the league in ERA. One of them was the Twins. In 2009, after a tense game 163 versus the Tigers, the Twins sn

Anatomy Of A Mauer Boo

I’m not particularly fond of how Minnesota treats its sports stars. The Puckett-like love affair is rare. More often, we pick nits. Kevin Garnett doesn’t score enough, or isn’t clutch enough. Joe Mauer doesn’t hit for enough power or doesn’t show enough leadership. Fran Tarkenton can’t win the big one, Harmon Killebrew is too quiet, Rod Carew is self-absorbed … the list goes on and on.   (There are forces at work here that are slicker and far more powerful than subjective analysis. It f

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 39: Ragged Rotation

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' terrible starting pitching, Delmon Young not going to Hebrew school, booing Joe Mauer, putting past division titles in proper perspective, Ben Revere's brief return, skipping Francisco Liriano, Ron Gardenhire's odd bullpen usage, and jinxing anything and everything. Here are:   the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can listen, rate and subscribe).

Red Sox 6, Twins 5

I blame myself.   I do. Heading to the middle of the eighth inning, I’m forced to leave my seat to pick up my kid at 10:00. By the time I walk through the stadium, I’ve heard the roar and see Jamey Carroll standing on third base with no outs and the third through fifth batters coming up.   If I didn’t have to pick up my kid in 10 minutes, I SWEAR I would’ve stuck around. I mean – you know me by now. Is there anyone MORE superstitious?   Four blocks away from Target Field I say to The Voice of Re

A Neanderthal's Rebuttal

I wrote this in 2003, but somehow haven't revisited it for a while. Give the recent stadium kerfuffle, it seems like a good story to revisit, especially because it reflects a core tenet of this site: sports ARE important, and we don't shouldn't apologize for thinking so. ~~~~   Reject the fundamental assumption. After that, the arguments start answering themselves.   This Sunday morning I was awakened by our 3-year-old son, at the customary time of 0-dark:30.   "Dad. Is it mording?"   "Do

MLB Payroll By The Numbers

Every year USA Today examines the salaries of the Major League Baseball teams and their players and publishes them. Let's see that their numbers tell us about the Twins recent payroll cut....   Swimming Upstream Twins payroll went from $112.7M last year to $94.1M this year, a decrease of $18.6M or 17%.   Overall, MLB payrolls increased 6%. If the Twins payroll from 2011 would have increased 6%, the payroll would have been $119.5M, $25.4M more than actual level.   Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 36: Radio Radio

In which Aaron and John take the podcast to the radio with their KFAN debut and talk about Clete Thomas' big first impression, Ben Revere's demotion to Triple-A, what the rotation looks like after injuries to Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, why Liam Hendriks is sticking around, what the future holds for Francisco Liriano and Alexi Casilla and what Delmon Young and porn have in common. Here are:   the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can a

Twins Bats Defeat Twins Gloves 6-5

The Twins won their first game of the season last night as their bats defeated Jared Weaver, the Los Angeles Angels, and the Twins own defense by a score of 6-5.   It was a victory not just for the players on the field, but for the front office and coaching staff, as it finally validated decisions they had made throughout the offseason and spring training. Those decisions, contrary to the popular view of the Twins as a fundamentally sound team, have emphasized scoring runs over solid baseball. T

Chasing Offense

Let me count the ways in which the Twins focused on adding offense this year:   Of the ~$18M the Twins spent this offseason, $14M were spent on adding hitters. The only exceptions were bargain-shopping acquisitions of Jason Marquis and Joe Zumaya. Jamey Carroll was one of the first free agents signed this offseason, and he was given a 2-year deal, despite being limited defensively and being 38 years old? Why? Because he could get on base. He doesn’t have a hit this year. Ryan Doumit ha

Series Preview: Angels By The Numbers

Series Preview: The Angels By The Numbers   92.5 – The “over/under” estimate from casinos on the number of games the Angels will win this year. That’s the highest number of any team in the AL West.   73 - The “over/under” estimate from casinos on the number of games the Twins will win this year.   Offseason   317,500,000 – The dollars the Angels guaranteed to pitcher CJ Wilson and slugger Albert Pujols when they signed them this offseason.   154,000,000 – USAToday’s computation of the Angels pay

Series Preview: Orioles By The Numbers

I know the Twins still have five days until they get to play the Orioles, but I can’t wait. The roster is set. There are a couple more meaningless games against the Rays, because you can’t play enough meaningless games against the Rays. And then a game versus the Miracle? Really? I’ll be damned if I’m not going to look forward to Friday. Orioles By The Numbers   Overall 69.5 – The over/under Vegas set for Orioles wins this year. Which means if they go 70-92, they would still exceed expectati

Threatening The Media

"My gawd - THEY are afraid of US? Really?"   That's the thought that went through my head last night when a flame war broke out on Twitter between two local groups that had established a uneasy truce in recent years: corporate media and independent writers, commonly labeled bloggers. The critical topic? Baseball.   Or rather, that’s the subject matter about which the involved parties write. The topic was the power of independent writers and the checks and balances from which they are seemingly

TwinsDaily Update: A Half Million Strong

Five weeks. Just five weeks. Here's what you magnificent people have been doing in the five weeks since pitchers and catchers reported:   We’re up to 1100 registered members, and nearly 500 of them have contributed to the community. The forum holds 500 discussion threads that have generated over 5000 individual posts, or about 100/1000 per week. 321 individual blog posts by our members on 62 blogs, or about nine every day. Those have been read by 34,765 unique visitors who have stopped by 13

Good Days & Bad Days

Fueled by interviews with assistant GM Rob Antony and manager Ron Gardenhire, yesterday became the best day of the year for Twins spring training news. The result? Almost every projected lineup you saw this offseason was probably wrong. Instead, you’ll like see a whole lot of Josh Willingham playing left field, Ryan Doumit playing right field, Justin Morneau as the designated hitter and Chris Parmelee playing first base.   The shakeup happens twelve days before the regular season starts and abou

Mining For Twins

When the Twins sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka down, they admitted that they might need to replace him with a guy from another team’s roster. They’re right. Looking at the guys that remain in camp, there isn’t another really good option, at least not one that can play shortstop.   Fortunately, this is the right time to find just such a player. At the end of spring training, teams make all kinds of guys available: players without options, Rule 5 draft picks or just guys that are dropped from the 40-man ro

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 33: Nishi, Baker and Bullpen Ace Makers

In this week's episode, John and Aaron sip some Nordeast and talk about Nishi's demotion, Baker's injury, some surprising Twins performances, and what it all means for the Twins Opening Day roster. Here are:   the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

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