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AL Central 2nd Half Outlook: Up the Middle


jorgenswest

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How does the Twins performance up the middle compare to the other teams of the AL Central? With the help of fangraphs, here is how the AL Central teams performed up the middle.

 

Catcher (Ranked by wRC+)

 

Tigers (4th) 100

Royals (7th) 87

Indians (8th) 86

White Sox (9th) 80

Twins (13th) 56

 

For fear of long discussion about WAR, I will leave it out. For the other positions, I will put some defensive rankings. We could start a thread and argue about catcher defense and framing also. I will state without numbers that the Royals and Indians get more help defensive from their catchers than the Tigers and Twins. The White Sox are probably below them

 

The Indians lost Yan Gomes for much of the first half. His return should improve their performance at catcher. Avila’s return should improve the Tigers. It is hard to imagine that Suzuki will improve given his workload.

 

On the farm: Josmil Pinto is suffering from concussions. Eric Fryer had a good half season with the bat that is out of line with several years of previous performance. Stuart Turner is a good defender and might project towards a Drew Butera type career. That isn't a knock. Truly good defensive catchers that can handle a pitching staff are not easy to find and not in abundance in AAA.

 

Secondbase

 

Indians (1st) 156

Twins (2nd) 132

Tigers (7th) 93

Royals (14th) 49

White Sox(15th) 27

 

Defensively the Royals are first followed by Tigers(3), Indians(7), White Sox(10) and Twins(11). I think that Dozier is a good defensive 2B. The other guys are also. I don’t think the difference between Dozier and Infante is very significant.

 

This looks to be a position that the Royals will get an upgrade in the second half. It is very unlikely that their second basement will have an OBP of 240 even if they remain the same. The Indians and Twins have elite players that should continue to play well.

 

On the farm: Beresford, Bernier and Polanco are all in AAA. None is Dozier of course, but all could do a respectable job as a utility player short term. Polanco has upside of a starter

 

Shortstop

 

Tigers (2nd) 113

Twins (6th) 84

Royals (9th) 82

Indians(14th) 45

Sox(15th) 38

 

Defensively, Tigers (1st), Royals (7), White Sox(11), Twins (12) and Indians (13)

 

I think both the Twins and Indians improve. Lindor is an upgrade. The Twins have a lot of innings of very shaky performance from Santana. Escobar and Nunez show better than league average SS bats and are getting a better percentage of the playing time. If Santana plays it is because he has improved. Unbelievable all star level play from Iglesias thus far, but I think he will regress some. Ramirez will be better for the White Sox.

 

Centerfield

 

Royals (2nd) 130

Tigers (8th) 104

Sox (11th) 88

Indians(12th) 81

Twins(15th) 60

 

Defensively, the Royals (1st) are kings followed by Twins (8th), Tigers (11th), Indians(14th) and White Sox(15th).

 

The Twins numbers are dragged down by Schafer. Hicks and Buxton should improve. Rosario looked respectable as a fall back option. Cain is elite and the Twins can't close this gap entirely in 2015. They can gain ground towards league average contribution.

 

On the farm: Hicks, Buxton and Rosario were all in the minors to start the season. Farris and Ortiz now play CF in AAA. Niko Goodrum started in CF the first two weeks after Buxton was called up but it has been Kepler in the last week.

 

Twins Outlook

 

Without a trade, I expect better performance centerfield in the second half. I think the performance at shortstop will also improve and it is already league average. The Twins can’t afford an injury to Dozier and his elite level play. He should continue to perform well. Catcher is the black hole. Suzuki’s performance dropped last year with the heavy workload. It has nowhere to drop this year in the second half. Up the middle, it is the one position where a trade can have a significant impact.

 

Next: On the Corners

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