2021 Twins PECOTA Projections: 5 Free Agents Team Could Target

[Matthew Trueblood]

With the release of Baseball Prospectus’s 2021 PECOTA projections this week, we have a clearer sense than ever of the Twins’ strengths and weaknesses, and we can estimate the value various remaining free agents could add. Here are five good options for the Twins.Adam Duvall

 

PECOTA projections aren’t unimpeachable—especially this year. However, the projections for Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and (especially) Brent Rooker are pretty ugly. The Twins can cover themselves even if those dire predictions are realized, by moving around pieces already on their roster, but Duvall does multiple things well, and his projections suggest that he would be a major upgrade over Rooker as a lefty-masher and left fielder.

 

Duvall, 32, topped 30 home runs twice with the Cincinnati Reds and posted a career-high 122 DRC+ last year with the Braves. (Baseball Prospectus uses DRC+, a proprietary, holistic metric, to give offensive value in a single number. The stat is indexed to 100, which means that that number is average, and higher is better.) Atlanta chose to spend their resources on reinforcing their starting rotation this winter, however, which led them to non-tender Duvall in December.

 

If PECOTA is to be believed, whichever team scoops up Duvall will have themselves a solid role player. Though his generic projection is for only 350 plate appearances, the system has him hitting 20 home runs. His DRC+ of 112 would make him a pretty good replacement for Eddie Rosario in left field, especially if it could be raised slightly by shielding him from tough right-handed pitchers. (Luis Arraez and LaMonte Wade make that feasible, in theory.) Duvall also plays average-plus defense, and would thrive in Target Field’s fairly simple, confined left field space. At times, he might fit the lineup best as the designated hitter, if the Twins don’t sign (ahem) a higher-echelon player for that role. He’s almost certain to sign a one-year deal, and the deals signed by Rosario and Joc Pederson last week imply that Duvall could be had for $5 million or less.

 

Nelson Cruz

 

We’ve made Cruz-backers wait long enough. Obviously, he remains the Twins’ top target, and re-signing him would form the neatest hierarchy and build the simplest set of potential lineups for Rocco Baldelli. PECOTA projects the 40-year-old to continue flicking Father Time in the forehead, with 27 home runs in 525 plate appearances. Cruz’s projected slash line of .262/.346/.492 would be good for a 134 DRC+. That (and his raw numbers) would be more in line with his production in his final season with the Mariners than in either of his first two years with the Twins, which is the reasonable way to manage expectations, considering his age. Still, he projects to be a better hitter than any current Twin.

 

Marcell Ozuna

 

Cruz is not, however, the best hitter remaining on the free-agent market, and the guy who does claim that title might be the better fit for Minnesota’s roster, in 2021 and in years to come. That’s not to say that the Twins would or should actually prefer Ozuna. Cruz is a beloved part of the clubhouse, and (in some sense) the Minnesota baseball community. He’s much better-known to the Twins. They know his recent injury history, his habits, and his relationships to everyone involved in the organization.

 

Still, it would be silly not to seriously consider Ozuna, because he has a chance to be the fits-like-a-glove roster salve that Duvall could be, while hitting at or above Cruz’s level. He’s been on the national radar ever since his breakout 2017, but Ozuna has been somewhat inconsistent throughout his career. That’s not an indictment, per se. Even when he hasn’t been living up to his obvious potential (especially with regard to power), he’s been pretty good. He just hadn’t fully turned the corner and accessed his whole offensive toolkit, until 2020.

 

In the shortened season, though, playing for his third team, Ozuna did become a bona fide superstar slugger. In previous seasons, his unorthodox swing had led to strange batted-ball spin, which led too many well-struck balls to tail, flag, and die just shy of doing real damage. In offseason work and with the help of the Braves, he fixed that last year. He still has a delightfully idiosyncratic set of actions in the batter’s box, defying the modern trend toward hyper-efficient launch angle-optimizing, but he’s cleaned things up just enough to become truly lethal.

 

PECOTA projects Ozuna to hit .279/.354/.501 in 2021, good for a 135 DRC+. He projects to play more, hit more home runs, walk more often and strike out less often than Cruz or Duvall. He’s also just 30 years old. Presumably, he’s looking to sign a four- or five-year deal, but the Twins have the flexibility to do just that, having only $47.2 million committed to their 2022 payroll. If Ozuna were willing to have a chunk of his 2021 salary deferred, or paid out across multiple years as a signing bonus, he could fit both this year and into the future.

 

Tyler Clippard

 

At the moment, the Twins’ bullpen projections are not very rosy. Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers project to be quite good, but not elite, and the system is lukewarm on Jorge Alcalá, Caleb Thielbar, Cody Stashak, and Hansel Robles, rating them all as roughly average pitchers. One of the members of last year’s terrific bullpen gets a very favorable projection, though. Clippard, with his neutral splits and apparently age-proof soft-tossing skills, is pegged for an 86 DRA- (where 100 is average, and lower is better) and a 3.34 ERA in 50 innings of work. Bringing him back would stabilize a bullpen short on star power, and thus in need of as many reliable, versatile arms as possible.

 

James Paxton

 

Having already signed J.A. Happ for a high seven-figure guarantee, the Twins have a fairly sturdy starting rotation, with a high floor. They should only further add to that group if they can push at least Happ further down the likely hierarchy, and raise their ceiling. If Happ is a somewhat stronger version of Homer Bailey, then the mystery man who would fit this roster now is someone more akin to Rich Hill.

 

As it happens, if you sort the list of pitchers projected to pitch over 100 innings in 2021 by PECOTA’s forecasted DRA-, Hill is sandwiched by two pitchers who were free agents when the offseason began. Just behind Hill (projected for a very slightly worse performance, that is) is Corey Kluber. Just ahead of him stands Paxton.

 

In fact, Paxton’s projected 88 DRA-, 3.67 ERA, and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings are all better than even those of José Berríos. The strikeout rate even edges out Kenta Maeda’s. This is what Hill’s projections looked like last winter (and, of course, is essentially what they look like this year, too). As with Hill, the questions around Paxton center on his health, as well as sagging fastball velocity. If he’s healthy, he’s a great bet, and someone whose profile would fit perfectly with the Twins’ pitching preferences.

 

Re-signing Hill is a fine option in itself, but given his age, it’s easy to make the case that he’s too risky. Paxton is nine years younger, and as a resident of Eau Claire, Wis. during the offseason, he’s very likely to find the Twins a good fit for his family.

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nice article. Thanks.

[mikelink45]

I do not want Hill again.  If we have questions about signing Cruz at his age then we should not consider Hill based on age and health.

 

And I would not write off our rookies because Pecota does not know how to project them.  We know them; now we need to play them.

[TopGunn#22]

The PECOTA projections for Nellie do not infuse me with a lot of optimism.  

To me, that's pretty pedestrian production and would constitute an over pay with a LOT of risk (he'll be 41 years old this season).

 

Ozuna seems like a MUCH wiser investment at this point and he could even play some LF in addition to being the primary DH.

 

Duval looks like a "cheaper" but very attractive and cost efficient option.

 

I've been pining for the Twins to sign Paxton all off season.  They should get him.

 

An addition of Paxton and Duval would be good.

An addition of Ozuna AND Paxton would be tremendous !!

And would quite possibly thrust us over the White Sox as the dujour pick to win the division.

[RaoulDuke]

I wouldn't mind to Clippard back he was solid last year.  Another former friend I think would fit well is Brandon Kintzler, ground ball machine to feed the defense and should be in their price range.

[mnfireman]

I would be open to Ozuna, but in a couple of years the teams DH spot becomes cloudy as presumably him, Sano and Donaldson would all be better as a DH than as fielders.