What Now? Trade Rosario for starting pitching? Trade Kirilloff?

[tony&rodney]

 

We don't want to trade Sano even if we get Donaldson. Despite his strong finish, he still won't fetch fair value in the trade market and we'd be right back to looking for another corner infielder.

I totally agree, especially with the values that are heard on TD. I would not trade Sano straight up for Bryant. My thought was how someone else might value Miguel, because clearly I am too high on him.

 

On another front -what is a way to pry an innings beast like Alcantara from Miami? Cave, Gordon, and Duran fair?

[tvagle]

First of all I'm suspect of the Trade Simulator's need to balance trades but here's what My Blueprint trades with the Reds and Pirates would look like if TradeSimulator almost Approved

 

edit: Still leaves plenty of room for JD at 3rd or roll with Arraez/Gonzo at the hot corner

 

 

I think the Twins will be overpaying for any trade so the idea of getting Taillon included won't happen and I'd still do these deals with him removed (only added him to show how imbalanced the TradeSimulator can be)

 

Frazier adds to the Multi-positional versatility

Bell plays everyday as a Switch-hitting Witch

DeSclafani and Archer make the staff better with Wes

 

Pirates land a local hero in the making

Pick up a young catcher from the Reds

and Shelton gets his buddy Sano

 

Reds land the CF they want (unbeknownst to them it's Jake Cave not Marte)

and a Bullpen arm to help them fight (on the field and in a brawl)

6 years of Utility Gordon

 

My original Blueprint Trades below (Reds save Stephenson in this version):

 

Trade #1: WE'RE STILL FRIENDS SO LETS MAKE SHELTON'S LIFE EASIER

 

Pittburgh Pirates trade:

 

1B - Josh Bell  Switch-Hitting Beast solves 1B need for a couple years

OF - Starling Marte Will open up opportunities for more moves

P - Chris Archer Wes can fix him

 

Twins Send to Pittsburgh:

 

3b - Miquel Sano See A. Rendon above

1B - Alex Kirilloff Gotta give to get and he instantly becomes the Face of the Pirates for 10 years

P - Blayne Enlow They'll want pitching in 3 years and Enlow fits that bill

SS - Nick Gordon Still has value and most important for Pirates is cheap for 6-7 years

C - Ben Rortvedt Read they will be looking for Catching...could change this to Jeffers if it seals the deal

OF - Jake Cave Someone has to play OF in Pittsburgh

P - Lewis Thorpe Young-ish arm to add to the deal

 

Trade #2: Twins and Reds do a 1-for-1 Swap

 

Newly acquired OF Starling Marte heads to Cincinnati

Cincinnati sends the Twins their choice of:

Sonny Gray / Anthony DeSclafani / Trevor Bauer

[bobs]

 

I think Archer is an interesting candidate for a trade. He had a bad year, but from a quick glance at his Fangraphs page it looks like his failure was driven by unusually high walk and homer rates. His K% was around 27, which is pretty dang good. I think if the ball is de-juiced and his walk rate normalizes, he could be a really nice addition for a pretty low prospect cost.

Agree.  Not sure the prospect cost will be low...after what Bucs gave up for Archer, I'm afraid they'll try to hold out for a larger return than his numbers would indicate.  I just don't know if he's that "top of the rotation" guy they need?

[bobs]

 

Clevinger is the best pitcher on this list, but Cleveland's not doing that unless they absolutely rob us blind.

 

I also don't think the Rockies will trade Gray unless we overpay significantly. Same with Boyd and Ray to a lesser extent.

 

Realistically, taking on Price and paying $25/15/15 of his salary with the Redsox picking up $41 million is the only realistic option unless you can convince yourself to get excited about Archer.

Agree on all points

[tvagle]

 

Agree.  Not sure the prospect cost will be low...after what Bucs gave up for Archer, I'm afraid they'll try to hold out for a larger return than his numbers would indicate.  I just don't know if he's that "top of the rotation" guy they need?

See 3 posts above

[Doctor Wu]

 

I don't see most of these guys as being available even. Boyd is if Avila gets an overpay. And from a Central rival he'll likely ask for more even. Luchessi, maybe SD would let him go if they could get rid of Wil Meyers. I'd bet they still want a prospect back besides. Most of the players you list are for competing teams and players they will be relying upon themselves.

 

We are behind the eight ball. I'd suggest signing both Walker and Wood if we can. A name I threw out in a thread last night might be someone we could pry loose. Tousi Toussaint from Atlanta. He's buried in their depth charts and maybe for someone well regarded in A ball they might would let him go.

I'd love to see the Twins pick up Toussaint. the Braves practically stole him from Arizona few years ago and he's developed well since that time. I still think he's better used as a starter.

[Doctor Wu]

 

First of all I'm suspect of the Trade Simulator's need to balance trades but here's what My Blueprint trades with the Reds and Pirates would look like if TradeSimulator almost Approved

 

edit: Still leaves plenty of room for JD at 3rd or roll with Arraez/Gonzo at the hot corner

 

 

 

I think the Twins will be overpaying for any trade so the idea of getting Taillon included won't happen and I'd still do these deals with him removed (only added him to show how imbalanced the TradeSimulator can be)

 

Frazier adds to the Multi-positional versatility

Bell plays everyday as a Switch-hitting Witch

DeSclafani and Archer make the staff better with Wes

 

Pirates land a local hero in the making

Pick up a young catcher from the Reds

and Shelton gets his buddy Sano

 

Reds land the CF they want (unbeknownst to them it's Jake Cave not Marte)

and a Bullpen arm to help them fight (on the field and in a brawl)

6 years of Utility Gordon

 

My original Blueprint Trades below (Reds save Stephenson in this version):

 

Trade #1: WE'RE STILL FRIENDS SO LETS MAKE SHELTON'S LIFE EASIER

 

Pittburgh Pirates trade:

 

1B - Josh Bell  Switch-Hitting Beast solves 1B need for a couple years

OF - Starling Marte Will open up opportunities for more moves

P - Chris Archer Wes can fix him

 

Twins Send to Pittsburgh:

 

3b - Miquel Sano See A. Rendon above

1B - Alex Kirilloff Gotta give to get and he instantly becomes the Face of the Pirates for 10 years

P - Blayne Enlow They'll want pitching in 3 years and Enlow fits that bill

SS - Nick Gordon Still has value and most important for Pirates is cheap for 6-7 years

C - Ben Rortvedt Read they will be looking for Catching...could change this to Jeffers if it seals the deal

OF - Jake Cave Someone has to play OF in Pittsburgh

P - Lewis Thorpe Young-ish arm to add to the deal

 

Trade #2: Twins and Reds do a 1-for-1 Swap

 

Newly acquired OF Starling Marte heads to Cincinnati

Cincinnati sends the Twins their choice of:

Sonny Gray / Anthony DeSclafani / Trevor Bauer

Thanks for that. Some interesting ideas in there. Hmm .... at this point I'm willing to try a gamble or two like this one. Gotta shake things up.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a great read.  I don't have access to the trade values but let's just say it raised my eyebrows a bit.  The way this works I guess, is that even though Rosario is 28 and a proven, productive big league hitter with some team control still left, Kiriloff is much more highly valued based on POTENTIAL and much longer team control.  I've been all for trading Eddie to someone like the D-Backs straight up for Robbie Ray but based on these values, that just ain't gonna happen.  I understand the skepticism of using these values, but I'll accept them for the sake of argument.  O.K.  so Eddie for Ray won't work.  I've also been pushing to trade Eddie because I believe Kiriloff and Larnach will be better overall hitters in 2-years or so.  But if the Twins would decide on a win now posture without selling out the future I could see trading Kiriloff for a young, controllable SP.  Why not?  You've got Larnach and Rooker right behind him !  The name that intrigues me the most is Frankie Montas of the A's.  Yes, I know he got popped for a PED violation, but the kid has super stuff and he knows how to pitch.  The other name that intrigues me is Jon Gray of the Rockies.  (I also like Lance McCullers but Houston has so many young OF'ers that Kiriloff isn't a good fit).  How about a trade of Kiriloff, Duran, Enlow and Thorpe for Gray and Trevor Story?  This would allow the Rockies to possibly keep Arenado and plug their top prospect, Brendon Rogers in at SS.  Gives them a great young OF'er to replace Blackmon very soon and several young pitchers.  Maybe it would have to be more.  It's obvious what the Twins get out of it.  If this is really how front offices look at these things, I guess I'm ready to move Kiriloff and hang onto Rosario.  If you can't get decent value for 32 HR's and 109 RBI's (and none of the comps to Rosario did a thing for me) then trade Kiriloff and keep Eddie.

[akmanak]

I can't see the Twins messing with any chemistry when it comes to the infield now. They also hardly ever do these type of trades.

 

Since they didn't score with pitching they need to pick up Donaldson and hopefully just outscore their opponent by the long ball.

[Linus]

If the choice is moving Eddie or Kirilloff I would keep Eddie. The Twins should be in win now mode and Eddie fits better with that timeframe

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is a great read.  I don't have access to the trade values but let's just say it raised my eyebrows a bit.  The way this works I guess, is that even though Rosario is 28 and a proven, productive big league hitter with some team control still left, Kiriloff is much more highly valued based on POTENTIAL and much longer team control.

Yup.

 

Another way to think of it: how much more valuable was Eddie Rosario in 2015, with his affordable 109 RBI season ahead of him plus 6 other seasons of team control (4 at league minimum salaries), compared to Eddie Rosario now, with that affordable 109 RBI season in the rear view mirror and only his last 2 arb seasons ahead?

 

Yes, there was some more uncertainty in Rosario's future performance in 2015, but position players near MLB aren't *that* hard to project with a reasonable level of confidence. Predicting Rosario's career 108 OPS+ to date would have probably surprised no one back in 2015.

 

 

And Kirilloff now would be closer in value to Rosario circa 2015, than to Rosario today.

 

[DocBauer]

FWIW, from my understanding, the Diamondbacks weren't recruiting Bumgarner. Rather, he pitched himself to them and went with a very team friendly deal to fit in. (Small 1st yr $ and deferred $, etc). That has lead to some speculation Ray may indeed be on the table for additional help now.

 

Makes me wonder.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

FWIW, from my understanding, the Diamondbacks weren't recruiting Bumgarner. Rather, he pitched himself to them and went with a very team friendly deal to fit in. (Small 1st yr $ and deferred $, etc). That has lead to some speculation Ray may indeed be on the table for additional help now.

Makes me wonder.

The Diamondbacks also just traded their top SP at the deadline and see themselves as contenders. Makes sense they would have been interested in adding a SP this offseason.

 

Could mean Ray is available, but with a contender, that's tricky. They might have a specific return in mind rather than a generic prospect package.

[Rosterman]

My biggest issue in a trade of Rosario is seeing another team put any longterm interest in the guy themselves. If the Twins are willing to move beyond Eddie, what value dos he bring to another team, especially if that team is giving up a comparable control piece. Of course, the Marlins just signed Dickerson for $17.5 million for two years. Sadly Eddie will probably play out his arbitration and hopefully looking for something much more than that (depending on his play).

[jorgenswest]

The Diamondbacks also just traded their top SP at the deadline and see themselves as contenders. Makes sense they would have been interested in adding a SP this offseason.

 

Could mean Ray is available, but with a contender, that's tricky. They might have a specific return in mind rather than a generic prospect package.

I think Ray might the best real option now and maybe a Larnach can get him.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

 

Not only should Rosario and Kirilloff be available so should Lewis. The best part is outfield is a position of surplus so it makes even more sense

 

 Nope. Personally would be more exited of a package of Buxton/Rosario/AA+ prospect for a stud pitcher(?) and a AA+ prospect (any position). Falvine should only consider Lewis and Kirilloff if the return is ridiculously lopsided....what would "ridiculously" be?

 

As a Supreme Court Justice Potter wrote in 1964 about obscenity:

"I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description...but I know it when I see it".

[Linus]

 

Nope. Personally would be more exited of a package of Buxton/Rosario/AA+ prospect for a stud pitcher(?) and a AA+ prospect (any position). Falvine should only consider Lewis and Kirilloff if the return is ridiculously lopsided....what would "ridiculously" be?

 

As a Supreme Court Justice Potter wrote in 1964 about obscenity:

"I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description...but I know it when I see it".[/quote

 

I said all of them should be available not necessarily in the same deal

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Understand Linus but gosh....but it would be gut wrenching to trade a Lewis or Kirilloff for short term success even if the the Twins are now in a "window of opportunity" in 2020. I want to see these guys wearing Twins uniforms 10 years from now...

[D.C Twins]

 

Understand Linus but gosh....but it would be gut wrenching to trade a Lewis or Kirilloff for short term success even if the the Twins are now in a "window of opportunity" in 2020. I want to see these guys wearing Twins uniforms 10 years from now...

Absolutely gut wrenching, but needed if there is a desire to maximize a 'window' of success. We have to give to get. Good deals still sting.

 

But, I believe that, for better or worse (for me, worse), the FO desires long term above-average-ness than ever sacrificing long term assets for the opportunity to be elite in the short term. 

 

And I think that the FO specializes in drafting and development which will provide long term above-average-ness, but I do not believe elite status can be achieved without occasional high impact trades or FA signings.

 

At the end of the day, I know that I references our 87 and 91 WS wins a whole lot more than our "sustained above-averageness in in the 2000s"