Noah Syndergaard

[labcrazy]

If the Mets were to be willing to move him to the Twins what sort of package would it take? Would something like Graterol, Javier and Larnach be enough? That too much? What do you think?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If the Mets were to be willing to move him to the Twins what sort of package would it take? Would something like Graterol, Javier and Larnach be enough? That too much? What do you think?

If Graterol was healthy, I think that'd be close to a fair price, though the Mets may want a fourth throw-in from the low minors.

 

With Graterol down... *shrugs*

 

Not likely.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think he's going to be traded. Almost no way.

 

I'd think you need a top 50, top 80, and two more in the 100-150 prospect range. So, Lewis or Kiriloff another guy you don't want to give up, and two from their depth of OF or SS prospects.

 

Your deal would probably be fair if Gaterol were not injured. Now? I doubt it.

[labcrazy]

 

If Graterol was healthy, I think that'd be close to a fair price, though the Mets may want a fourth throw-in from the low minors.

 

With Graterol down... *shrugs*

 

Not likely.

Ok maybe we keep Graterol and put in Balazovic (sp?)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ok maybe we keep Graterol and put in Balosavic (sp?)

 

I really think Lewis or Kiriloff needs to be in there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really think Lewis or Kiriloff needs to be in there. 

I tend to agree but the Mets might want pitching. Hard to say.

 

Probably a no to Lewis but maybe to Kirilloff.

[labcrazy]

 

I really think Lewis or Kiriloff needs to be in there. 

Boy, that would make it hard to do. 

[Thrylos]

I think that it will take the equivalent of Humber (top 50 BA&BP), Mulvey, Gomez,(~ 50 BA&BP) & Guerra (top 50 BA).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think that it will take the equivalent of Humber (top 50 BA&BP), Mulvey, Gomez,(~ 50 BA&BP) & Guerra (top 50 BA).

agreed, Johan in reverse sounds about right

[DocBauer]

IF he was on the market, it would also depend on near ML ready talent vs farther off but equal or better prospects.

 

I will get pushback, and that's fine, but in any major trade, I think I'd almost rather trade Lewis than Kiriloff. And understand, I dont want to trade Lewis! And I know OF/1B depth, but I just feel Kiriloff is going to be special. And with Polanco, Arreaz and some others, I just think I'd move Lewis first, if forced to.

 

The initial proposal is mostly fair, but if I were the Mets, I'd be looking to sweeten the deal for Gordon or Blankenhorn to give me some infield depth.

 

That also might let me look at someone lower on the pitching rung like Alcala or Duran or even possibly Enlow.

 

5 to 1 hurts! That usually means it's a good trade for both parties.

 

And yet, almost all of the top 10 stays intact for the Twins.

[dgwills]

Syndergaard hasn't had a great year so far. May drive down the price a bit. If he's available the Twin's absolutely need to make a deal. Hate to lose Lewis or Kirriloff (which would be necessary), but if would be a good move.

[Thrylos]

 

Syndergaard hasn't had a great year so far. May drive down the price a bit. If he's available the Twin's absolutely need to make a deal. Hate to lose Lewis or Kirriloff (which would be necessary), but if would be a good move.

 

a. .376 BABIP and 56.8 LOB% in wet and cold April really drag his numbers.

b. something is up with his slider; he lost 4 mph this season.

c. Mets changed their pitching coach about a month ago

d. That clubhouse is a zoo.

e. That fanbase belongs in a zoo.

[Riverbrian]

If I'm the Mets

 

I'd keep Syndergaard to pair with Degrom for the next two years at least and try to continue what they started. 

 

If they want to do something shocking selling. Instead of moving Thor... Consider trading Conforto for Pitching instead.

 

They have more depth on the offensive side so they can absorb Conforto easier than Syndergaard. 

 

I wouldn't tear down the Mets just yet. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think that it will take the equivalent of Humber (top 50 BA&BP), Mulvey, Gomez,(~ 50 BA&BP) & Guerra (top 50 BA).

Before anyone gets the wrong idea from this post, no, Humber was no longer a top 100 prospect anywhere by the time we acquired him. (He had been ranked sporadically previously.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Before anyone gets the wrong idea from this post, no, Humber was no longer a top 100 prospect anywhere by the time we acquired him. (He had been ranked sporadically previously.)

Thank you for the clarification because that didn't seem right in my head. Guerra and Gomez highlighted that deal in my mind.

[Bavarian]

I think some of the trade scenarios are for a Syndegaard that's still tearing up the league.   He's not.   He has injury concerns.   I don't think Kiriloff is required in such a deal nor do I think they dangle him.   We've got some solid secondary OF options.   We also have some good IF options that not many can match.   Must we throw in one of our top 2 pitching prospects?   If we must, I pass on the deal.

[Linus]

I would include Lewis in a heartbeat. Syndergaard is better than anybody in the Twins system will ever be and he has team control. I would protect Graterol before Lewis. If he gets moved off SS which many scouts think he will his value is diminished greatly

[gunnarthor]

Honestly, I think the price would be pretty high. He's arguably a true ace, only 26 years old and 2.5 more years of control at reasonable cost. MLBtraderumors reported the Mets want an arm and a leg. Thor and Berrios would be a tremendous 1-2 punch in the playoffs. Thor isn't as good as Chris Sale but he's younger. He has half a season team control left when Boston made that big trade. Mets will start in that neighborhood. Chicago got the #1 prospect in baseball along with another top prospect, Michael Kopech (Mayo had him #17 pre-2017 season although others had him in the 30-50 range). Plus another top 10 Red Sox prospect and a lottery ticket. An equivalent trade might be Lewis, healthy Graterol, Duran and Rijo.

 

My guess is that there isn't a way we could do it without one of Lewis or Kiriloff. It also might be a trade where we give four prospects but also get a low level lottery ticket back. I don't think Falvine would make this kind of trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From the tangent in the other thread:

 

One other thing that should be noted about deGrom is that the Mets are paying him like a 5+ WAR pitcher and he has met that threshold that all of once in his career. Sure, there's a chance he'll reach that mark this year but probably not by much and it's far from a given.

 

He's not Clayton Kershaw. He's not even Chris Sale.

 

On top of the other issues that come with looting the farm for an expensive pitcher, I don't have a ton of faith he's going to be great going forward given his age and just how much of an outlier 2018 was compared to the rest of his career.

 

Good? Sure. Very good? Probably. Great? Eh... that's a hard one to answer.

Are you using fWAR?

 

deGrom has two 5+ bWAR seasons through age 30, despite not debuting until age 26. The same number as Greinke through the same age, and just one fewer than Scherzer, despite both debuting earlier.

 

Age 26-30

deGrom: 18.2 WAA, 25.3 WAR (24.4 fWAR) in 139 GS (he was first called up in his age 26 season)

Scherzer: 15.3 WAA, 24.7 WAR (24.7 fWAR) in 163 GS

Greinke: 8.8 WAA, 17.2 WAR (20.9 fWAR) in 155 GS (to be fair, Greinke's big year was age 25)

 

Sale so far: 14.5 WAA, 22.9 WAR (27.4 fWAR) in 141 GS

Kershaw: 21.6 WAA, 29.0 WAR (30.6 fWAR) in 134 GS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=26,30&filter=&players=2036,3137,1943,10954,10603&startdate=&enddate=

 

I think deGrom fares pretty well in this comparison, no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also from the tangent thread:

 

Not saying this is how it would work out, but if you traded Buxton/Berrios for Degrom would that be worth it?

First of all, Buxton was still the consensus #1 prospect at that point in his career. Lewis is still a good prospect but not particularly close to #1 overall anymore, is he?

 

Additionally, while Graterol still seems to be ranked close to where Berrios was at that point, it should be noted that Graterol has already had TJ surgery and is on track to miss most of his age 20 season due to shoulder issues too. He's much, much riskier now than Berrios was at the same point.

 

That said, if deGrom has Scherzer's or Greinke's career from age 31-36, surrounded by a currently contending Twins team, it may still "work out" even if Lewis and Graterol go on to perform like Buxton and Berrios for some future Twins teams of undetermined contention status in 2022 any beyond.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

They want great players back and the kitchen sink Think Larnach, Lewis, Blankenhorn, Balozivic, Graterol, type talent plus probably some major league eligible pitching back, think Berrios and or some combination like that. I like this pitcher but we are not getting him 

 

Way, way off. 

 

Berrios alone is enough to get it done if that's what you want to do. What team trades Ace for ace though?

 

And the suggestion about trading Berrios AND Buxton for Degrom? Come on now, what kind of drugs do you think our front office is on? No way either of those 2 get packaged up and traded unless you get back 1-2 of the better players in the entire league for them. 

[darin617]

Before everyone gets all into these Mets pitchers just take a second and remember how great Matt Harvey was and how foolish the Mets were for not trading him while he was good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Before everyone gets all into these Mets pitchers just take a second and remember how great Matt Harvey was and how foolish the Mets were for not trading him while he was good.

Worth noting that when Harvey was the same age as Syndergaard now, he already had TJ surgery and was only a few months away from thoratic outlet surgery on his shoulder. If you assume that combo platter of injuries will happen to everyone, you'll never want to acquire another pitcher ever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

From the tangent in the other thread:

 

 

Are you using fWAR?

 

deGrom has two 5+ bWAR seasons through age 30, despite not debuting until age 26. The same number as Greinke through the same age, and just one fewer than Scherzer, despite both debuting earlier.

 

Age 26-30

deGrom: 18.2 WAA, 25.3 WAR (24.4 fWAR) in 139 GS (he was first called up in his age 26 season)

Scherzer: 15.3 WAA, 24.7 WAR (24.7 fWAR) in 163 GS

Greinke: 8.8 WAA, 17.2 WAR (20.9 fWAR) in 155 GS (to be fair, Greinke's big year was age 25)

 

Sale so far: 14.5 WAA, 22.9 WAR (27.4 fWAR) in 141 GS

Kershaw: 21.6 WAA, 29.0 WAR (30.6 fWAR) in 134 GS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=26,30&filter=&players=2036,3137,1943,10954,10603&startdate=&enddate=

 

I think deGrom fares pretty well in this comparison, no?

Yeah, was using fWAR, as I think it's a better indicator of defensive- and park-neutral performance.

 

(also clarifying that I *didn’t* check rWAR and then base a decision on what confirmed my opinion because had I checked rWAR, I would have referenced the discrepancy)

[Darius]

Before everyone gets all into these Mets pitchers just take a second and remember how great Matt Harvey was and how foolish the Mets were for not trading him while he was good.

When Harvey was good he was dominant. A Cy Young caliber guy. He was one of the most valuable players in the game, and they were attempting to win championships.

 

If you get rid of every high-end guy for a haul of prospects assuming he’ll get injured and have his career derailed by an obscure injury (especially in an age where TJ surgery, knee surgery, etc. are basically routine), then what’s the point? When do you ever win?

[nicksaviking]

Before anyone gets the wrong idea from this post, no, Humber was no longer a top 100 prospect anywhere by the time we acquired him. (He had been ranked sporadically previously.)

If I recall correctly, the Mets were unwilling to include Mike Pelfrey.

[nicksaviking]

I’d include Kirilloff for Syndergaard without thinking twice. The Twins have corner bats coming out of their ears, and don’t have any room for them at the MLB level as it is.

[cmoss84]

Madbum and Thor pitched gems. They are currently being instructed to pack bags. Hope we get one. Or both. Why not.

[cmoss84]

Thor

Madbum

Berrios

There's our playoff rotation

[Det95Twins]

TheTwins will not get Syndergaard. He’s a Mets pitcher and will burn out in a year or two...think Harvey. I think the Twins should be offering up Gordon rather than Lewis. He’s not getting ahead of Polanco and now has fallen behind Aereaz. Schoop will likely go for the money next year so Marwin will be the super utility guy along with Adrianza, who is the only plus defender in the infield.