Tyler Jay Traded to Reds

[Seth Stohs]

I was just notified that the Twins have traded LH RP (and 2015 first-round pick) Tyler Jay to the Cincinnati Reds for Cash Considerations... 

 

I think it is now officially OK to say that the selection of Jay with the 6th overall pick in that 2015 draft did not go well. 

[Mike Sixel]

Yikes. Every "expert" was fairly sure he'd at least be a RP.....wow. 

[Vanimal46]

Good luck to Tyler. What a shame the previous regime went with this pick at #6 overall.

[nicksaviking]

Wow, there wasn't even a need for that in terms of 40-man consideration. 

 

Are they trying to make a statement to the other struggling former prospects? Or was he really one of the first on the chopping block to make room for the new draftees? Looks like there are plenty of guys in Ft Myers ready for the next level.

[Steve Lein]

This bums me out probably more than it should.

 

I came around to liking him as the potential pick for the Twins while researching that draft for the site. Saw a Glen Perkins like path as his floor, though that assumed he would stay healthy.

 

That certainly didn't happen and his control disappeared this year. Hope he does well in his new organization.

[SwainZag]

What a shame.  The injuries just really got him.  From the looks of it his control is non existent...not good for a 25 year old in AA ball.

[bird]

Yep. This happens. I feel badly for the guy.

 

But he's one of the 14 out of 18 pitchers taken in the first round of that 2015 draft who haven't made it up to MLB.

 

Many of those 14 won't, although a handful still have a way better shot at it than Jay, that's for sure.

 

And even of the four that have so far, two of them have given their teams a total of 5 innings their teams might have been better off without (Fulmer and Allard).

 

More fuel for the argument that maybe focusing on position players at the top of the draft isn't such a crazy idea.

[nicksaviking]

I think if anything, this along with guys like Eades and Wimmers show that there's no such thing as a "high floor" when drafting pitchers. More often than not, just draft the guys with the most potential because the percent chance that a "safe" player might make it compared to a "risky" player probably has a difference in the single digits.

[JW24]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 6:59 PM, nicksaviking said:

Wow, there wasn't even a need for that in terms of 40-man consideration. 

 

Are they trying to make a statement to the other struggling former prospects? Or was he really one of the first on the chopping block to make room for the new draftees? Looks like there are plenty of guys in Ft Myers ready for the next level.

 

I think the nature of minor league baseball is such that no statements ever need to be made to struggling prospects. First round picks get a longer leash than most, but anyone can be traded/cut at anytime, and every player in the minors is aware of that.

 

Looking back at the 2015 draft, it is a bummer the Twins took Jay instead of Walker Buehler or Mike Soroka, but that is the way things go.

[Han Joelo]

Kind of a courtesy move, maybe?  Trying to be classy and whatnot.  Hopefully a fresh start jump starts things for him.  Make way for Hackimer?

[Dakota15]

The player taken immediately after Jay, Andrew Benintendi, wasn't the worst alternative either (I know hindsight is always 20/20)

[MMMordabito]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 6:46 PM, Seth Stohs said:

I was just notified that the Twins have traded LH RP (and 2015 first-round pick) Tyler Jay to the Cincinnati Reds for Cash Considerations... 

 

I think it is now officially OK to say that the selection of Jay with the 6th overall pick in that 2015 draft did not go well. 

 

Damn, only cash considerations .... I was hoping to get Chicago involved on a three-way deal that would somehow also get Brian Duensing moved from Iowa to the Reds and the Twins end up with Amir Garrett!

[drivlikejehu]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 7:35 PM, nicksaviking said:

I think if anything, this along with guys like Eades and Wimmers show that there's no such thing as a "high floor" when drafting pitchers. More often than not, just draft the guys with the most potential because the percent chance that a "safe" player might make it compared to a "risky" player probably has a difference in the single digits.

 

It's really not that different with position players (though pitchers are riskier, all else being equal). The main issue for most amateur players is that they aren't good enough to play in MLB and never will be. So there's really no such thing as a "safe" pick, unless a player is ready for MLB on the day of the draft. That's rarely the case even for the #1 overall pick.

 

Even beyond that, bench players/role players are relatively easy to acquire for MLB teams. So "high floor" players might make the Majors but provide very little value beyond what could have been acquired in free agency, off waivers, etc. 

[twinsfanstreif]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 7:50 PM, Dakota15 said:

The player taken immediately after Jay, Andrew Benintendi, wasn't the worst alternative either (I know hindsight is always 20/20)

Twins fans would have revolted had we taken Benintendi, we were all in on pitching that year, (as fans) no one was even considering other options. This is why we don't get stuck on position when drafting

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 7:11 PM, birdwatcher said:

Yep. This happens. I feel badly for the guy.

 

But he's one of the 14 out of 18 pitchers taken in the first round of that 2015 draft who haven't made it up to MLB.

 

Many of those 14 won't, although a handful still have a way better shot at it than Jay, that's for sure.

 

And even of the four that have so far, two of them have given their teams a total of 5 innings their teams might have been better off without (Fulmer and Allard).

 

More fuel for the argument that maybe focusing on position players at the top of the draft isn't such a crazy idea.

 

That's the reality of the draft. They all go into the draft with a ton of information and have seen all the players and they take the guy they feel is best... and sometimes it's right and sometimes it's wrong. 

 

Got hurt, and that's too bad. 

[nicksaviking]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:14 PM, twinsfanstreif said:

Twins fans would have revolted had we taken Benintendi, we were all in on pitching that year, (as fans) no one was even considering other options. This is why we don't get stuck on position when drafting

 

It wasn't me, but I seem to recall several Benintendi fans around here; some people swear by the Golden Spike Award winners, and good lord, after seeing the past winners, maybe we all should, the odds don't get much better than that:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Spikes_Award

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 7:50 PM, Han Joelo said:

Kind of a courtesy move, maybe?  Trying to be classy and whatnot.  Hopefully a fresh start jump starts things for him.  Make way for Hackimer?

 

Hard to know. It's possible that he asked for a trade and the front office was fine with it. 

 

And... Hackimer is already in Pensacola. 

[twinsfanstreif]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:26 PM, nicksaviking said:

It wasn't me, but I seem to recall several Benintendi fans around here; some people swear by the Golden Spike Award winners, and good lord, after seeing the past winners, maybe we all should, the odds don't get much better than that:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Spikes_Award

I don't recall a single person on here calling for him. In fact I don't recall anyone calling for a non pitcher at all

[markos]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:26 PM, nicksaviking said:

It wasn't me, but I seem to recall several Benintendi fans around here; some people swear by the Golden Spike Award winners, and good lord, after seeing the past winners, maybe we all should, the odds don't get much better than that:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Spikes_Award

Ha. I was going to point out that this Twins fan <points at self/> would have been very happy with Benintendi. 

[70charger]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:26 PM, nicksaviking said:

It wasn't me, but I seem to recall several Benintendi fans around here; some people swear by the Golden Spike Award winners, and good lord, after seeing the past winners, maybe we all should, the odds don't get much better than that:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Spikes_Award

 

That IS an impressive list.

 

I doubt the Twins will have the 2019 Golden Spikes winner available to them when they draft next, considering they'll have the last pick in the first round and all.

 

[rdehring]

Interesting that it was cash.  Aren't the Reds one of the teams that the Twins may look to when finalizing that deal for a good, youngish reliever?  If so, one would think that Jay could have been a throw-in on such of a deal.   

 

I guess we can hope that this creates good will that the Reds will remember next month, or next week, when talking about a transaction we Twins fans can get excited about.

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:31 PM, twinsfanstreif said:

I don't recall a single person on here calling for him. In fact I don't recall anyone calling for a non pitcher at all

Several people here wanted Benintendi on the day of the draft.

[MMMordabito]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:26 PM, nicksaviking said:

It wasn't me, but I seem to recall several Benintendi fans around here; some people swear by the Golden Spike Award winners, and good lord, after seeing the past winners, maybe we all should, the odds don't get much better than that:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Spikes_Award

 

Well, that's just freakin' great, because now those odds favor the White Sox ... 

[Vanimal46]

  On 6/10/2019 at 8:31 PM, twinsfanstreif said:

I don't recall a single person on here calling for him. In fact I don't recall anyone calling for a non pitcher at all

There were several fans of him on this site. They may not be active anymore, but there certainly were people clamoring for him.

[markos]

So, I just wasted the past hour reading through past threads on the 2015 draft. Interesting (and humbling) to reread what everyone one (included myself!) said about Jay and the others available. 

 

My own comment about Benintendi:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18293-article-twins-draft-preview-andrew-benintendi/?p=344241

In many ways, Benintendi was another "miss" for me because I didn't foresee the flyball/launch angle/power revolution that was going to overtake baseball.

 

Interesting to read that thread and the Ben Revere comps he was getting.

 

Other draft pick threads from that day:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18540-article-official-twins-daily-draft-day-thread-cheat-sheet/

 

[bird]

Decade by decade, that Golden Spikes list became a better weather vane. I was around when the Twins drafted Oddibe McDowell. Oh, and Travis Lee, who refused to sign. No huge loss. Oh, and Jason Varitek, who rejected the Twins out of high school and went to college. Probably even went to classes since he had the brains to turn down the Twins back then.

[markos]

 

  On 6/10/2019 at 7:35 PM, nicksaviking said:

I think if anything, this along with guys like Eades and Wimmers show that there's no such thing as a "high floor" when drafting pitchers. More often than not, just draft the guys with the most potential because the percent chance that a "safe" player might make it compared to a "risky" player probably has a difference in the single digits.

From rereading a lot of the draft threads from 2015, there were a lot of people that liked Jay specifically because of his upside. He was a risky profile, not someone I would put under the label of a "high floor" or "safe" player. In many ways, his "floor" as a reliever was more as a hedge for his perceived risk, not as his value in and of itself.

[Vanimal46]

  On 6/10/2019 at 7:35 PM, nicksaviking said:

I think if anything, this along with guys like Eades and Wimmers show that there's no such thing as a "high floor" when drafting pitchers. More often than not, just draft the guys with the most potential because the percent chance that a "safe" player might make it compared to a "risky" player probably has a difference in the single digits.

I agree with your statement. Adding in that talking about a floor for any minor leaguer is kind of silly. The floor will always be flaming out in the minors, which is most likely going to happen with Jay. Happens to tons of players. Baseball is hard.

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 6/10/2019 at 9:31 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I agree with your statement. Adding in that talking about a floor for any minor leaguer is kind of silly. The floor will always be flaming out in the minors, which is most likely going to happen with Jay. Happens to tons of players. Baseball is hard.

I think this is understood though.

I think generally the term floor means a player's most likely minimum profile if they actually make it to MLB, not their ABSOLUTE lowest possible profile.

[gunnarthor]

BA on Jay when we drafted him: “The pitcher more scouts seem to believe in than ever is Illinois lefthander Tyler Jay. It is ironic to say the least that it’s the college closer in Jay—who leads the nation in ERA and ranks fifth in strikeout-to-walk ratio—whom most scouts believe can start, and the two starters scouts see as big league impact relievers in Fulmer and Tate. “If you’re going to take a short college pitcher,” one scouting director said, “and you compare Jay to Fulmer, Jay does it easier, does it cleaner. He throws as hard (92-96 mph), maybe not as firm as Tate but he’s no slouch. He has as good or better breaking ball (a devastating mid-80s slide piece). He’s shown a good changeup. He’s been extended. He’s as athletic. And he’s lefthanded.”

 

I remember hoping that Tate fell to us and sort of a mixed feeling toward the group of college pitchers, all had flaws. Buehler looks perfect in hindsight. But I remember discussing Fulmer, and some HS arms like Allard and Aiken and Bickford. I honestly don't remember much discussions or rumors for the Twins taking a position player although there was a rumor that we'd take C Stephenson. 

 

This draft also hurt b/c we lost a pick for signing Santana and then our next pick didn't sign. Blankenhorn might be a player. Wade might become a 4th OF type.