Keith Law Top 100 - no love for Graterol

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Twins have no-one in the 51-100 section. Interesting that Balazovic (102) and Graterol (108) were included in the "just missed" group, with Balazovic ranked slightly higher. Law seems to think Graterol is destined for relief which is the most bearish I've seen anyone on him. "Scouts see no projection.." seems overly harsh based on his performance to date.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25852941/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-100-51

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25833101/just-missed-top-100

[Mike Sixel]

The only time I miss my subscription to Insider (or whatever it is called now)....but when you get laid off, you make choices.

[bluechipper]

Hopefully this works out similarly to Klaw "hating on" Berrios back in the day.

[Seth Stohs]

Balazovic is about 6-4. 

Graterol is about 6-0. 

 

Scouts like to see 6-3 and taller. The knock on Graterol is his height, and he is very strong, so yes, 102 is probably the top of his potential velocity. 

 

Also, anyone who throws around 100 will almost always be seen as a reliever by many scouts, and understandably so. 100 with a slider can dominated for an inning at a time. But, teams are smart enough to give them every opportunity to be 170 inning guys rather than 60 inning guys. 

 

I do really like Balazovic and I got a lot of great reports on him. That said, he was my #29 Twins prospect. By this, my assumption is that he is Law's #3 Twins prospect (unless he has Javier in his Top 50). I can't see that. 

 

Also, it'll get people talking about his rankings, right? That brings in page views... 

[jkcarew]

Same thing with Romero. They’re short (stature), right-handed, power pitchers. Neither is going to project as a dominant, innings-eating, starter. Possibly, but not likely. Meanwhile, Balazovic’s peripherals were pretty similar to Graterol’s last year at Cedar Rapids...and Balazovic is actually a bit younger, although maybe a bit under the radar coming out of Canada at a very young age. Fair to say, IMO, that up to this point we’ve had Graterol a bit over-rated...mesmerized by that third digit on the radar gun...and Balazovic somewhat under-rated. Regardless of whether it makes sense for anyone to rank Balazovic ahead of Graterol at this point...I simply take this as very encouraging regarding Balazovic.

[gunnarthor]

What does Klaw say about Balazovic? His numbers in A ball were solid - esp his strike outs.  IIRC, he was a high riser on draft day and the Twins paid overslot for him. Scouts saw the potential in him. I can't find the thread but I remember posting some pretty encouraging scouting reports about him last year.

 

That 2016 draft is going to rival the 2012 draft for us.

[bird]

 

Hopefully this works out similarly to Klaw "hating on" Berrios back in the day.

 

 

Good catch. IIRC, did he not think Berrios a likely bullpen guy with a #3 ceiling? He cited his height and weight.

 

He may be under-estimating Graterol in part on the basis of height and physicality, which Reusse said is now 6'1" and 220lbs. But it also could be his sub par changeup, which he said he's been focused on improving. 

 

Wouldn't it be great if Law has Graterol at #108 and has under-rated him severely?

 

The helium on Balazovic is a fabulous development if the dreaming on him holds water.

[Mike Sixel]

Number 108 is no love?

[terrydactyls]

If only there was one place where all the information about the Twins' minor league prospects as available. I could then spend my leisure winter days prepping for the upcoming season. Seth - do you know of any such place?

[mikelink45]

Law is just a writer.  If he was as good as ESPN claims he would be with a team.  But at least he gives opinions and that generates great discussions and debates.

[Mike Sixel]

Law is just a writer. If he was as good as ESPN claims he would be with a team. But at least he gives opinions and that generates great discussions and debates.

He was in a front office. He wanted to have a different life style. And, plenty of ...just writers.... at fangraphs and other places have taken front office jobs.

[Mr. Brooks]

Number 108 is no love?

In comparison to his ranking on the other outlets, I'd guess.

[Dman]

 

Law is just a writer.  If he was as good as ESPN claims he would be with a team.  But at least he gives opinions and that generates great discussions and debates.

I don't know.  He seems to be right more often than wrong.  No one is perfect when rating prospects.  Even though I don't always agree with his opinions I do respect them because when I look back most of what he said was gonna happen did happen.

 

One example I remember was Kennys Vargas.  A lot of us on this board were very high on him but not Law.  Vargas never did quite make it so I think he won that one.  There are many other examples but that is just one that sticks out to me. 

 

Regrading Berrios if I remember correctly he didn't like that his fastball was so flat and Berrios did have some trouble adjusting to MLB.  He did start to come around on Berrios in the end though as well.  Player development can change opinions.

 

I think Law gets a bad rep here because he isn't as optimistic as we are in assessing our prospects.  He is more balanced in his approach.  He also comes off a bit cocky or non caring so his personality can rub people wrong but I still think his player analysis is pretty good.

[mikelink45]

 

He was in a front office. He wanted to have a different life style. And, plenty of ...just writers.... at fangraphs and other places have taken front office jobs.

I understand that, but as much as I enjoy reading his materials, I do not give him more credibility that the other writers and I am glad that baseball has started to grab the researchers from Fangraphs, Baseball Perspective and other places.  I like his rankings, but the fact he has Graterol lower or higher than someone else does not mean much at this point.  The fact that Graterol is at least in the discussion is good.  

[Splash45]

Law is just a writer. If he was as good as ESPN claims he would be with a team. But at least he gives opinions and that generates great discussions and debates.

Maybe he prefers writing to working for a baseball team? Or maybe the pay at ESPN is better then what he’d get with a team? Just because he works at ESPN doesn’t mean he doesn’t know what he is talking about for the most part.

[mikelink45]

 

I don't know.  He seems to be right more often than wrong.  No one is perfect when rating prospects.  Even though I don't always agree with his opinions I do respect them because when I look back most of what he said was gonna happen did happen.

 

One example I remember was Kennys Vargas.  A lot of us on this board were very high on him but not Law.  Vargas never did quite make it so I think he won that one.  There are many other examples but that is just one that sticks out to me. 

 

Regrading Berrios if I remember correctly he didn't like that his fastball was so flat and Berrios did have some trouble adjusting to MLB.  He did start to come around on Berrios in the end though as well.  Player development can change opinions.

 

I think Law gets a bad rep here because he isn't as optimistic as we are in assessing our prospects.  He is more balanced in his approach.  He also comes off a bit cocky or non caring so his personality can rub people wrong but I still think his player analysis is pretty good.

I think he is quite good, but so are so many that are making these lists.  I like combining all the lists and seeing how players are ranked by consensus.  Law is good, but I am not excited about whether someone is 102 or 108.  I think as you go down the list the rankings simply mean that they have done enough to become part of a conversation.

 

[jud6312]

Top-50 was posted this morning - he's got Lewis at #9 and Kirilloff at #11.

[jud6312]

Perhaps more surprisingly, he's got Tatis Jr. ranked #1 and Guerrero Jr. ranked #2.

[bird]

Give me a "writer" who can get Brad Steil or Tommy Watkins to return his call over someone with no connections who fancies himself an expert over "derivative" assessors like Law because he traipsed around during spring training and saw a guy in person. Even a truly credentialed guy like Law is more credible if he's made some calls on a prospect and is in possession of more than one opinion on a guy.

[bird]

 

Perhaps more surprisingly, he's got Tatis Jr. ranked #1 and Guerrero Jr. ranked #2.

 

 

Pitch forks are gonna come back out in White Sox territory. That Tatis, Jr. for Shields trade will be seethed about for a long long time on the south side.

[gunnarthor]

 

Perhaps more surprisingly, he's got Tatis Jr. ranked #1 and Guerrero Jr. ranked #2.

I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.

Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.

[bird]

 

I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.

Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.

 

Just a hunch that Law's first 1,375 chat questions will be on this subject.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

 

What does Klaw say about Balazovic? His numbers in A ball were solid - esp his strike outs.  IIRC, he was a high riser on draft day and the Twins paid overslot for him. Scouts saw the potential in him. I can't find the thread but I remember posting some pretty encouraging scouting reports about him last year.

 

That 2016 draft is going to rival the 2012 draft for us.

 

The write-up on Balazovic is short but the big take-aways are that he is athletic, still filling out, and he has plus control of four pitches while working in the mid-90s. KLaw used the phrase "blew scouts away" regarding his 11 Cedar Rapids starts.

 

I like to follow our prospects but I wasn't ready to see Jordan to be among the top 110. A pleasant surprise to learn he's so well regarded.

[nicksaviking]

I don’t agree with Klaw’s ranking of Graterol or Tatis over Guerrero, but he has always given guys who look certain to stick at shortstop extra favor and short right handed starters big demerits. I’ll disagree but he’s consistent, maybe stubbornly so. Predictable even, and that’s fine.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.

Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.

 

Lale
1:17 What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law
1:19 He's probably a DH. He's huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I'd want for 2019, it'd be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn't take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.

 

David
1:33 How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
Keith Law
1:33 Not really. See above - we're talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad's body that aren't there for Tatis.

 

randplaty
1:42 A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad's hit tool. You don't think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis' bat is better than others are giving credit for?
Keith Law
1:43 I don't think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out - and I think Tatis may be better than average at short - and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.

[Mike Sixel]

Jamie
1:23 Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge?  What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law
1:23 Look at what he did in AAA - and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.

 

Derek
1:24 Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law
1:25 Yes, and none is a good defender.

 

Randy
1:33 Hi Keith, do you think Kirilloff could make it up to Twins by the end of the year? Thanks!
Keith Law
1:33 Nonzero chance but very unlikely.

 

Larry
1:34 Is Fernando Romero still a prospect?
Keith Law
1:34 No longer eligible. Still love him, want to see him start.

 

Hank
1:36 Does BRUSDAR's height create the same plane concerns that Berrios' did on the fastball for you?
Keith Law
1:36 They aren't the same pitcher. Graterol's issues are more delivery-related - see the just missed column for more.

[Dman]

Ouch on the Gordon Comments.  I mean Nick had a very good OPS in AA gotta believe he is better than what we saw in a SSS in AAA.  Doesn't sound like Law is a believer though.

 

Not surprised about Rooker and Kiriloff, but surprised that he see's Romero as a solid starter.  I thought a fair number of scouts saw Romero as reliever a long time ago.

 

Will be interesting to see if his concerns about Brusdar come to fruition.

 

I like how he looks at things just hoping for more from the Twins Prospects.  Always fun to see what he has to say.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Number 108 is no love?

good point, how much difference is there 'really' between 90 and 110?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ouch on the Gordon Comments.  I mean Nick had a very good OPS in AA gotta believe he is better than what we saw in a SSS in AAA.  Doesn't sound like Law is a believer though.

 

Not surprised about Rooker and Kiriloff, but surprised that he see's Romero as a solid starter.  I thought a fair number of scouts saw Romero as reliever a long time ago.

 

Will be interesting to see if his concerns about Brusdar come to fruition.

 

I like how he looks at things just hoping for more from the Twins Prospects.  Always fun to see what he has to say.

 

And he's been a Gordon supporter up until now......

[Tomj14]

 

And he's been a Gordon supporter up until now......

Seems like another prospect they held onto too long. (Hope not)

Seems like two years ago Gonzo and Gordon would head line a deal, not so much the case anymore.