Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target

[Nick Nelson]

How differently might Twins fans at large view this offseason had the team succeeded in signing Yasmani Grandal?

 

The front office came up short in its pursuit of the top free agent catcher on the market, but that doesn't mean the Twins will give up on securing an upgrade behind the dish.Robert Murray of The Athletic tweeted last week that Minnesota was one of four teams to offer a multi-year deal to Grandal before the catcher signed with Milwaukee for one year and $16 million. KSTP's Darren Wolfson did some digging of his own and confirmed the report, adding that the Twins' offer "was for multiple years in the $13M/year range."

 

"Talks never gained traction, unfortunately," according to Wolfson. "But the Twins definitely tried."

 

This development is striking, for a couple of reasons.

 

1: The Twins have been allergic to long-term commitments this offseason, so the fact they were prepared to hand a hefty one to Grandal seems significant.

 

2: This is especially true when you consider that the Twins were also said to be in on Robinson Chirinos before he signed with Houston.

 

Although they've come up empty thus far, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seemingly had their sights set on acquiring an impact catcher, and perhaps even a long-term solution at the position. It's natural to wonder what this says about their confidence in Mitch Garver sticking at the position, as well as their confidence in Jason Castro coming back from knee surgery at age 31.

 

For now, I'm more interested in sizing up other options the Twins might consider, should they remain intent on adding a backstop.

 

The free agency pool has mostly dried up. The "best" remaining names include Matt Wieters, Martin Maldonado and Stephen Vogt. If the Twins want to land a real difference-maker, they'll need to look to the trade market, where J.T. Realmuto's name has been floating around all offseason.

 

Here's the skinny on Realmuto: He turns 28 in March, and has been one of the league's elite catchers for the past three years, rising to the top of the pack in 2018 when he was an All-Star and Silver Slugger.

 

YEAR | WAR (Rank Among MLB Catchers)

2016: 3.7 (3rd)

2017: 3.8 (3rd)

2018: 4.8 (1st)

 

He'll earn $5.9 million in 2019 and is arbitration-eligible once more in 2020. For a team looking to upgrade at catcher, the splashes don't really come bigger than Realmuto. Needless to say, the Marlins are aiming high in trade talks.

 

The latest report has Miami targeting catcher Francisco Mejia in talks with the Padres. Mejia ranks #32 on Baseball America's new Top 100 prospects list. Last week, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reported the Marlins were seeking Keibert Ruiz in discussions with the Dodgers, who have been in hot pursuit of Realmuto for sometime. Ruiz, also a catcher, is at #20 in BA's new rankings.

 

The Twins can't compete with those teams when it comes to young catching talent, but they do have prospects that would surely pique Miami's interest, with three making Baseball America's list (Royce Lewis at #9, Alex Kirilloff at #15, and Brusdar Graterol at #55). For what it's worth, Mr. Frisaro responded to one of my tweets on the topic by stating, "Kirilloff and you have a deal."

 

Now, Frisaro is a reporter and not a front-office exec, so take that remark as you will. But clearly, he's got some insight into the team's thinking, and beyond that, his assertion seems completely reasonable.

 

If it's true, and the Marlins would go for a package headlined by Kirilloff, then... that's something. I'm not saying it's a no-brainer by any means, but it would need to be strongly considered. I theorized about putting together a Kirilloff-centered package for Realmuto ahead of last year's deadline. The match makes a lot of sense for multiple reasons.

 

By bringing in Realmuto, the Twins would add another building block and some major assurance to a shaky core. It'd vastly improve the club's outlook for both 2019 and 2020. Given that he's still fairly young and improving, a long-term extension would make sense, and I wonder if Minnesota might be able to take advantage of its short-term spending flexibility to frontload such a contract.

 

What do you think? Is the biggest splash of this offseason yet to come? Would you be willing to part with Kirilloff as the centerpiece for baseball's reigning top catcher?

 

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[Danchat]

A trade is worth looking into, but I don't think this team should be trading away one of their 3 "super-prospects" for two years of a great catcher. If you're thinking about sending a package of the lower tier guys like Rooker/Larnach/Enlow/Duran/Gordon/Garver, then I'd be more supportive of it. With the Buxton/Sano core tipping towards "bust" and the front office not making any moves to acquire MLB talent, I don't think it makes sense to do the move with a team that doesn't look primed to win now.

[SF Twins Fan]

I don’t think I’d trade one of the top 3 prospects for another position player. I’d really only be willing to move one of them for a top of the rotation pitcher, which the Twins desperately need.

[Nick Nelson]

 

A trade is worth looking into, but I don't think this team should be trading away one of their 3 "super-prospects" for two years of a great catcher. 

I assume an extension would be part of the plan if they gave up a Kirilloff-caliber player for him. Give him a big up-front bonus to keep the later years in check. To add some perspective here: Realmuto is three months younger than Mitch Garver.

 

You bring him in and the window is open now, as well as for the foreseeable future. We're talking about a guy with a legit case as the best catcher in baseball. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I assume an extension would be part of the plan if they gave up a Kirilloff-caliber player for him. Give him a big up-front bonus to keep the later years in check. To add some perspective here: Realmuto is three months younger than Mitch Garver.

 

You bring him in and the window is open now, as well as for the foreseeable future. We're talking about a guy with a legit case as the best catcher in baseball.

The player has to be amicable to the extension as well though.

Escobar reportedly turned down a Twins extension offer, only to sign a pretty reasonable extension in Arizona.

That tells me one of two things.

Either the Twins FO has unrealistic expectations of what they can get away with offering for extensions- which might make sense considering rumors of lowball extension talks that never went anywhere with young "core" players last offseason.

Or, this just isn't a place that players want to stay.

[curt1965]

I agree! I’d do that trade in a heart beat, but only if there was an extension. Kidilloff might be elite, but Realmuto is “elite-er!”

[MN_ExPat]

I assume an extension would be part of the plan if they gave up a Kirilloff-caliber player for him. Give him a big up-front bonus to keep the later years in check. To add some perspective here: Realmuto is three months younger than Mitch Garver.

 

You bring him in and the window is open now, as well as for the foreseeable future. We're talking about a guy with a legit case as the best catcher in baseball.

 

You make a very good point, though I for one would be loath to give up a player like Kirilloff. Makes me very glad I don’t have to or get to make those decisions.

 

So I’ll just go sit quietly in the corner eating my crayons (red are my personal favorite).

[ScooterDance]

This feels like one of those trades that - if we make it Realmuto gets hurt or sucks and Kirilloff is a HoFer. And if we don’t Realmuto is a 9 time all star and 2 time MVP and Kirilloff never amounts to much.

[ChrisKnutson]

Realmuto may be better than AK, but are we really in a good position to make that kind of move right now?? Not really... Especially since he’d be this team’s only “superstar,” while most postseason teams tend to have at least 2-3. Doesn’t mean this is a bad team, but there’s no doubt that a lot would need to go our way in order for us to beat Cleveland, even with Realmuto. Simply put, there’s too many question marks on this team for us to make stupid trades like that, we just don’t have that luxury at the moment. Besides, even if we we’re able to outbid the Dodger, Padres, Reds, Braves, Rays, etc, by the time we actually start seriously contending for a WS, Realmuto will already be gone.

[Tom Froemming]

I'd certainly entertain this idea, but I'd be more inclined to get a big-time starting pitcher if I'm trading away Kirilloff. Noah Syndergaard?

[Hollywood42]

Absolutely not

[h2oface]

I remember when, just a couple of years a ago..... Jonathan Lucroy was the Realmuto du jour. How quickly his stock was not even close. 

 

2 years...... to "assume" a trade is coming with an extension is just that. An assumption. A building block needs to last way longer than 2 years. Being way low on Grandal isn't really trying, is it? My bet on Grandal is that he will go the way of Lucroy, and this next season will get him on the market again with Dozier like attractiveness. That is after watching him fall apart defensively and offensively (may, june, and august = horrible) for months of the season out here in LA.

 

Just what was wrong with trying to bring Wilson Ramos home for a couple of years? The money sure was right.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by h2oface

[Aerodeliria]

While I would love Realmuto, a catcher is a catcher...until he's not a catcher because he tweaks a knee, takes a foul-tip on his throwing hand or gets conked on the noggin. I am always leery of trading away big assets for catchers because they are so prone to injury. Maybe I would trade Garver + May or Garver + Duran or Garver + Larnach + Reed/Hildenberger or something along those lines, but I would be hesitant to send Kirilloff until we know how much upside he really has.

 

[jimbo92107]

I would rather have a solid defensive catcher at an affordable price, even if his BA is .200. Hitters like Kirilloff are rare, too. A player that hits in the .300 range with power belongs in the outfield, like Bryce Harper. Twins made that mistake with Mauer, and the Giants made that mistake with Posey. 

 

Great bats are hard to find, and catchers get beat up. Same thing could happen to Realmuto at any time. A few fastballs to the facemask, and he's out for half the season. A hard slide collision, and he's out for a year. 

 

I would rather see the Twins get Drew Butera back, and keep their great farm hitters. 

[Platoon]

You can't have an operation philosophy the Twins currently seem to be using, of waiting to see how their best on the MLB roster pan out and make the Kirilloff/Realmuto trade. It doesn't mesh. An extension helps, but clubs who are going to try and develop their own talent, can't trade away the top of the list. They need to make develop the major core of their talent, and then spot fill as the seasons progress. What's more concerning here is Grandal turning down a multi year offer for a one year deal for that difference in dollars.

[old nurse]

Grandal's salary for 2019 is 16 million. He signed a contract with a mutual option and a 2.25 Million buyout.  2/32 is not such a steep drop from 3/39 or 4/50 which the Mets reportedly offered.

[beckmt]

Mets offer was supposed to be 4/60,  Don't think the Twins went that high, guessing like 4/52 or 3/42.  That was not going to get it done.

[MMMordabito]

Here we go again

[killertwinfan]

I wouldn't invest a lot into the catcher position. It creates too much risk with the new sensitivities to brain injuries.  It just creates too much risk for middle market teams.  

[wabene]

Cruz saw something he liked here and decided to come. Says he sees a young talented team that reminds him of his days in Texas. Not everybody is going to feel that way. Grandal saw the same thing in Milwaukee. That's why I don't agree with comments stating the Twins didn't try hard enough or low balled an offer. Negative commentary without any proof. The Twins have been HORRIBLE for the better part of a decade and the area is unknown to most players who the vast majority of come from warm climates. The only way this team can consistently attract top talent is to build something players want to be a part of.

[ashbury]

A big-time catcher is a rich team's luxury. Acquiring one consumes resources that could have been applied to someone who plays 150+ games a year or starts 32.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Give me defense over offense up the middle at catcher, SS and CF. Give me offense over defense at 3B, 1B, LF. Give me some of both offense and defense at 2B and RF and utility IF and OF. A great hitter at DH (not a jumble of whom ever needs a rest that day). That is how I would look to build my team.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Cruz saw something he liked here and decided to come. Says he sees a young talented team that reminds him of his days in Texas. Not everybody is going to feel that way. Grandal saw the same thing in Milwaukee. That's why I don't agree with comments stating the Twins didn't try hard enough or low balled an offer. Negative commentary without any proof. The Twins have been HORRIBLE for the better part of a decade and the area is unknown to most players who the vast majority of come from warm climates. The only way this team can consistently attract top talent is to build something players want to be a part of.

I think that is very true, especially the last sentence. The Twins will never be able to compete with the elite money teams like New York and LA in attracting big name free agents, so we need to have some other qualities to entice them. What would work? A great manager and coaching staff? The chance to play with some great young talent? Free ice skating perks in the winter?

[Tomj14]

Weird Twins fans finding more reasons to not get an already established all star player, this time it is because he is a catcher, it is because of the cost, he might get hurt and because they can't give up a player that hasn't made it past high A yet.

 

 

 

[RedBull34]

I'm not a huge fan of trading for Realmuto, since he is a C, unless the Twins made a couple of other moves.

 

I think I'd need to see the Twins land Machado (which isn't going to happen) to make me a backer of trading for Realmuto (kinda like the Brewers with signing Cain and trading for Yelich last year, they needed both to be a WS contender)

[Riverbrian]

 

I'd certainly entertain this idea, but I'd be more inclined to get a big-time starting pitcher if I'm trading away Kirilloff. Noah Syndergaard?

 

Exactly... Umm... except for the entertain part. I won't even entertain it. 

 

Position scarcity over pay every time. Grow your own catcher and be on the other side of such over pay trades in the future. 

 

Realmuto would play 125 games tops and his best season ever was last year and he hit what Eduardo Escobar hit last year.

 

The reported price tag for Realmuto would get you someone like Kluber.  

[CLo]

Having seen Kiriloff & Lewis, I think both especially Kiriloff are untouchable. Twins have great prospect depth at shortstop so even though Lewis is a gem I would trade him for Realmuto only if an extension could be reached by the Marlins adding 2 or 3 years to his contract.  To be successful you have to be strong up the middle - catcher, 2nd base /shortstop & centerfield. The Twins are not exactly set up in those positions but the real Byron Buxton emerging would help ! Falvey & Levine (aka Batman & Robin) have only two or three more seasons to prove all their changes and moves have the Twins in a Championship caliber franchise. Maybe include Max Kepler in the deal ?!?

[HrbieFan]

Prospects need to be partially looked at as assets. I am not against adding an All-star catcher, but are we at that point? If we had one more sure thing at SP and fewer questions about Bux and Sano, then I'd be all in for a trade. From a GM standpoint, you also have to get talent when you can.

[SomeGuy]

Below are the top 10 catchers of 2015 in terms of WAR.  Only two of them were in the top 10 in WAR for 2018.  Four had less than 20 plate appearances in 2018.  I don't think it's a wise choice to trade a top 10 prospect for someone who is currently among the best at the vulnerable position of catcher.  I think there is a very good reason no one has bitten on the Marlins demands yet.

 

Buster Posey  (12th in 2018 WAR, age 31)

Francisco Cervelli  (3rd, age 32)

Russell Martin  (34th, age 35)

Brian McCann  (37th,age 34)

Derek Norris  (zero MLB plate appearances in 2018, age 29)

Stephen Vogt (zero MLB plate appearances in 2018, age 34)

Nick Hundley  (30th, age 35)

Travis dArnaud  (16 PA in 2018, age 29)

Yasmani Grandal  (2nd, age 30)

Miguel Montero  (13 PA in 2018, age 35)

[nicksaviking]

 

Exactly... Umm... except for the entertain part. I won't even entertain it. 

 

Position scarcity over pay every time. Grow your own catcher and be on the other side of such over pay trades in the future. 

 

Realmuto would play 125 games tops and his best season ever was last year and he hit what Eduardo Escobar hit last year.

 

The reported price tag for Realmuto would get you someone like Kluber.  

 

Speaking of growing, Garver's starting to grow on me, assuming the Twins continue to ride with him behind the plate. His bat isn't a liability unlike 70% of the catchers in the league these days.

 

If I'm trading some of the top prospects for a bat I want a great hitter. Not a great hitter.....for a catcher.