Article: Best Remaining No-Risk Starters on the Free Agent Market

[Nick Nelson]

As we march into mid-January, with spring training suddenly only weeks away, the Twins' roster is coming into focus. Through various avenues, they've supplemented both the offense and the bullpen.

 

If they are to address the rotation, it's looking less likely they'll do so through a major-league contract. That doesn't necessarily rule out an interesting addition though.The Twins haven't signed a starting pitcher of note this offseason, and haven't really been connected to any via rumors. It's becoming apparent the front office is comfortable with a rotation of Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Adalberto Mejia. That's rational. The first four are clearly viable, and Mejia's out of options. (I wouldn't be surprised if Mejia operated as a "primary pitcher" behind an opener. In fact, it'd surprise me if he didn't.)

 

What's needed now is depth. They've got some with Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Chase De Jong and others. But they need experience behind the top five. And the way to get it, without having to commit a 40-man spot or guaranteed salary, is a minor-league contract plus spring training invite.

 

With a sizable pool of free agents remaining, and serious question marks attached to many of them, plenty of starters should be available on non-guaranteed deals. The Twins are in good position to attract such players, offering ample opportunity (Mejia's grip on the fifth job isn't exactly ironclad).

 

Here are six starting pitchers who may end up having to settle for minor-league contracts, and look like potential good fits for the Twins:

 

Clay Buchholz, RHP (34)

Buchholz is, to me, exactly the type of pitcher Minnesota should be targeting. He's a talented arm whose only risk point is health. Granted, it's a considerable risk point – he's thrown only 105 total innings over the past two years, and his 2018 ended with a worrisome flexor strain – but before he went down he had a 2.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 16 starts for Arizona, and his career numbers are rock solid. If he comes into camp healthy and looking good, he's probably the team's best fifth starter option. If he proves to be damaged goods, nothing hurt.

 

Marco Estrada, RHP (35)

From 2015-16, Estrada was a fantastic pitcher, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 357 innings in the power-packed AL East. In each season he was one of the stingiest starters in the league when it came to allowing hits. He's fallen off over the past two years (5.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) and is hitting the market with his stock way down after posting a 7.17 post-break ERA in 2018. While not always healthy, he's been durable enough to throw 128+ innings every year since 2012. Estrada would be nice to have around in the event of a spring training injury in the rotation.

 

Drew Hutchison, RHP (28)

Once upon a time, Hutchison was considered a premier young pitching talent in the game, debuting at age 21 for Toronto after rocketing through the minors. The righty has snuffed out most of his own intrigue through many seasons of poor performance and injuries, but preserved enough to get chances with three different teams in 2018. He's only 28 and would be an interesting low-risk camp project for new pitching coach Wes Johnson.

 

Chris Tillman, RHP (30)

Similar deal here. Tillman hasn't shown many promising signs over the past two seasons (8.42 ERA in 120 innings) but from 2012 through 2016 he put up a 3.81 ERA for the Orioles while rarely missing a start. He might be cooked, but what if he's not? What if Wes could help him turn it around?

 

Josh Tomlin, RHP (34)

Ken Rosenthal reported last week that the Mets were interested in Tomlin on a non-roster deal, but nothing has come to fruition as of yet. If he doesn't go to New York he'd be a logical target for Minnesota, given the Derek Falvey connection (Tomlin has spent the last nine years in Cleveland). The right-hander was brutal last year, and at his best he's merely an average MLB starter, but as a strike-throwing fly ball pitcher he could benefit from the Twins defense.

 

Ervin Santana, RHP (36)

Reunion? Red Sox reporter Chris Cotillo relayed a month ago that Santana was "drawing widespread interest" but "more likely to sign when he feels he is fully healthy later in winter." Presumably he'll put on a showcase within the next month, and if he looks good he might get a big-league deal. If not, he'd make sense for Minnesota. His 2018 was a loss, but we saw how good Santana could be during the balance of his time here. He would infuse veteran familiarity. Then again, this bridge might be burnt after sourness emerged toward the front office late last season.

 

There are plenty of other starters on the market who could land on minor-league deals, including Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields and Martin Perez. Any of these names interest you? Or do you still feel the club should aim higher on a guaranteed big-league contract?

 

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[TheLeviathan]

Woof.

[Danchat]

Buchholz is an intriguing option, but the rest of the guys are the types where you cross your fingers and hope they pitch well. No thanks. If they want to add a starter, I'd look towards the trade market for somebody like Sonny Gray. But methinks the Twins won't be adding a starter until the trade deadline... if they're looking to add pieces, that is.

[Kirbek]

I agree with Danchat.  Buch is the only option I would like to consider.  With payroll so low, go get someone with a high floor.

 

[darin617]

If we have to dumpster dive for a SP why not Wade Miley?

[travkro]

No thanks...I'd rather roll with one of the young arms and see what they have.

[Otwins]

I think the Twins are in a perfect spot to take a chance on one of these guys. Mejia could go to the bullpen for awhile and help there while keeping his innings lower. Give the flyer a chance to prove if he has anything left and if not then Mejia is the fifth starter. Low risk move that the front office seems to like.  I would be surprised if it did not happen. And I think it should. Buchholz stands out on this list.  I am thinking he may get a major league deal with a lower guarantee and incentives for games or innings.

[Nick Nelson]

 

If we have to dumpster dive for a SP why not Wade Miley?

I believe Miley will require a major-league contract to sign. I'm looking for guys that won't require any commitment – no guaranteed deal, no 40-man roster spot required. All upside, no downside. 

 

If the Twins aren't getting Keuchel (and let's be honest, they're not), I'm not sure I wanna guarantee anyone else on the market a job over Mejia or Romero. 

 

 

No thanks...I'd rather roll with one of the young arms and see what they have.

This isn't an alternative to that. It's about having depth and creating competition for jobs. You want these young guys to earn it, right? Mejia did so over Vogelsong in 2017. Similar concept, except I think these players listed all have more legitimate upside than Vogelsong did. 

 

 

[baumannmd]

My biggest concern in this rotation, without a pitch being thrown yet, is whether Pineda is healthy and whether he can pitch anything like he did before he got hurt.

 

The cups of coffee that Romero, Gonsalves, and Stewart got last season were intriguing between ups and downs, but I’m confident we’ve got enough talent there to find someone capable of stepping up.

 

With all of that in mind, pitchers get hurt. Pitchers struggle. We need to add to this depth, so I think Nick’s options here make sense. Not as your go-to 5th man, but as an insurance policy on Pineda and the rest of the minor league replacements. Obviously, Bucholz looks like the best option of those proposed with a steep drop off after, but these are depth moves. If one of these guys is willing to come to Fort Myers on a minor league deal next month, it’s worth the investment.

 

Everyone (including myself) laughed at and dismissed Anibal Sanchez’s deal last spring and look what he did.

[wabene]

What I don't want to see is a long leash for anybody. That's why this might not be a bad option. Only bring the guy up if he's dealing in AAA. Then if they falter... next.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There is always downside.

[rdehring]

I like Mejia as #5.  But rather than using an opener, why not give the bullpen the day off and stack Romero with him.  Let Mejia go 4-5 and bring in Romero to close the game with another 4-5.  Would keep Romero's innings down to say 130-140 which works with previous year's work loads.

[mikelink45]

Romero over Mejia - that is where the upside is.  These pitchers are just fillers and if we had a weak rotation in Rochester they would be okay, but we have DeJong, Gonsalves, Littell, Thorpe, and Stewart with Grandal coming up quickly - we do not need fillers. 

[funoka]

I would like to see the Twins go after Gio Gonzalez -- Gio usually gives his team a chance to win the game.  

[caninatl04]

Sign 'em to a one year contract with a team option.  Then trade 'em for prospects.

 

Yup. Sign all of 'em.  Swallow salary and hope two of 'em bring back prospects.

 

I must admit, I enjoyed typing "'em."

 

My true opinion is that, as many of you concur, use the 5th starting spot to determine the rotation in '20 and beyond.  Any screeching sound associated with pulling dollars from the Pohlad's wallet should be for a quality reliever. 

[Tom Froemming]

Ervin Santana on a no-risk, nothing promised deal sounds better and better to me all the time. Give him a modest deal, if the finger is still a problem and the velocity is still down, you just cut him loose. Lots of potential upside there.

 

The big reason I could see the Twins not being interested is they seem to be motivated to turnover the leadership. Ervin had some not so professional things to say around the deadline, especially coming from a veteran guy who was hurt the majority of the season. They might not want to saddle Rocco & Co. with any more baggage from the previous year.

[Tomj14]

I would be willing to take a flyer on Clay, he had 10 QS in 16 starts last year and averaged over 6 innings a start.

I don't expect that kind of production out of anybody besides Jose and Kyle.

 

[bobs]

Yuck.  Can only wonder if any of these guys would be effective as an "opener" or if a guy like Bucholz would be able to be effective out of the 'pen.  Otherwise, no thank you.

[SomeGuy]

Mejia is a viable option when healthy.  I like him better than any of these options.

 

Grab a closer instead.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nick,

 

You and I have different opinions on what constitutes no risk. 

[jmlease1]

I'm fine with a minor league deal of Bucholtz I guess, but I think we need to move on from Ervin. There's definite baggage there and likely minimal upside at this point.

 

But I think I'd prefer to ride or die with the various pitchers we have then dumpster dive for a veteran. It's not like we don't have experienced pitchers (Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda have all been around for a while now, and even Berrios has multiple years in MLB), so unless we sign a guy who improves the top end (my "better than Gibson" plan) I think we're better off finding out if Mejia, Gonsalves, Stewart, or Romero are going to be options as consistent MLB starters for this team. Having three guys in AAA (or 2 + a guy in the 'pen) isn't bad depth, really. And Lewis Thorpe might be knocking on the door this summer too.

 

Mejia's issue is not getting deep enough into games, but we know he can pitch effectively at this level. Working with an opener might be the solution for him to get the team enough innings out of that 5th slot.

[ChrisKnutson]

Why not take a chance on Martin Perez?? Whether he remains a starter, or is sent to the bullpen, any lefty that’s capable of throwing 95+ is worthy of being signed.

.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I was hoping we had turned the page on dumpster diving by now. We have DeJong, Littell, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe and even Duffey who used to be a starter waiting in line behind Mejia should he falter. That's 7 guys right there for 1 spot, no shortage of competition if that's what you're wanting. 

 

I'm with others. Firmly move on from Erv, he was a late season problem so not likely a part of any solutions.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Romero over Mejia - that is where the upside is.  These pitchers are just fillers and if we had a weak rotation in Rochester they would be okay, but we have DeJong, Gonsalves, Littell, Thorpe, and Stewart with Grandal coming up quickly - we do not need fillers. 

What if Romero gets hurt in spring training and Mejia doesn't look ready for a starting job after throwing

 

Again, this isn't about pushing the young guys aside or robbing them of opportunities. That's why I'm looking exclusively at non-roster deal candidates.

[Nick Nelson]

 

There is always downside.

 

 

Nick,

 

You and I have different opinions on what constitutes no risk. 

What is the risk/downside in signing one or more of these guys to a minors deal? 

 

I'll tell you what's risky: going into camp with only what they currently have. In fact it is inexcusably risky. 

 

 

I was hoping we had turned the page on dumpster diving by now. We have DeJong, Littell, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe and even Duffey who used to be a starter waiting in line behind Mejia should he falter. That's 7 guys right there for 1 spot, no shortage of competition if that's what you're wanting. 

 

I'm with others. Firmly move on from Erv, he was a late season problem so not likely a part of any solutions.

Seven guys with almost zero starting experience between them (or at least almost zero track record of success as a starter). Thorpe and Duffy are not credible contenders for rotation spots. 

[bighat]

 

 

Ervin had some not so professional things to say around the deadline, especially coming from a veteran guy who was hurt the majority of the season. They might not want to saddle Rocco & Co. with any more baggage from the previous year.

In his defense, Ervin basically said that he wanted to win - and was disappointed when the Twins waved the white flag. Baseball players have said and done worse. I always liked a healthy Erv, he was very solid for the Twins. I'd be open to giving him a deal but would understand if the Twins want to move on as well. I like the fact he was brought up in the article, he'll certainly be a steal for someone out there.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Why not take a chance on Martin Perez?? Whether he remains a starter, or is sent to the bullpen, any lefty that’s capable of throwing 95+ is worthy of being signed.
.

He was a borderline choice for this list. His age (27) definitely makes him interesting. But I kinda expect him to get an MLB deal somewhere after finishing really strong last year. 

[by jiminy]

I understand the argument for using a down year to audition and improve young pitchers, not block them with one-year veterans who won't be here beyond that anyway.

 

But you usually need 8 to 10 starters by year's end, so I'm not convinced anyone would really be blocked. Several will fail due to injury or ineffectiveness, so it's not either/or.  Realistically we need them all.

 

Also, I'm not convinced the Twins should be playing for 2020 yet. Cleveland could suffer some injuries, and the rest of the division is weak enough that the Twins could be competitive.

 

I'm not optimistic about 2019. There is playoff upside on the hitting side. But this team is not a playoff team as currently constructed, because the pitching staff is far, far short of contender level. 

 

So if they have the budget to invest in a few more starter candidates and a few quality relievers, on one-year deals, why not?

 

These are all low risk players, in that they would not require guaranteed salaries past 2019, if that.

 

Would Mejia having to earn a spot (I'm not convinced he has yet), or Romero refining his pitches a bit more before starting his service clock, really be so bad?

 

You have to expect at least two injuries, and at least two guys not pitching well. Do we really want to work your way down to Dejong starting in the majors in 2019?  I'd hoped we'd put those years behind us.

 

Personally I'd love to see Buchholz or Miley on the roster, as well as anyone else the scouts think might bust out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What is the risk/downside in signing one or more of these guys to a minors deal? 

 

I'll tell you what's risky: going into camp with only what they currently have. In fact it is inexcusably risky. 

 

 

 

I suppose to a minors deal I could get behind that. The risk though, is locking up a roster spot for guys that we should be playing such as Romero or Mejia.

 

Truthfully, there's enough AAA depth that I'm not going into camp with what we have is risky. Risk, in my opinion, is not taking advantage of some of the relievers still on the market and ignoring the pen.

[USAFChief]

 

I like Mejia as #5.  But rather than using an opener, why not give the bullpen the day off and stack Romero with him.  Let Mejia go 4-5 and bring in Romero to close the game with another 4-5.  Would keep Romero's innings down to say 130-140 which works with previous year's work loads.

That results in both a 13 man staff and a 7 man bullpen. If you're going to have a 7 man bullpen, I'd prefer the benefits of a 12 man staff and a four man bench.

 

"Stacking" just doesn't work.