Article: Brian Dozier: I'll Be A Free Agent

[John Bonnes]

FT. MYERS – If you’re a Twins fan hoping for a contract extension between Brian Dozier and the Minnesota Twins, prepare for some disappointment. It sounds like Dozier is resolved to hit the free agent market at the end of the season. He’s even excited about it.

 

“You mentioned “intriguing.” [Free agency] is very intriguing,” said Dozier. “And it’s something that to get excited about. I feel like it’s always a goal of anybody at this level to reach free agency. And that’s no disrespect to this organization because I love this organization. It is all I know. But I do know I’ll be a free agent at the end of the season.”It is not clear if there have been any discussions between the Twins and Dozier this offseason. Dozier didn’t want to go into the details, and also wanted to emphasize it is not a distraction.

 

“I don’t want to elaborate too much on this, but I will say: my focus really is just on this year. All that stuff takes care of itself," said Dozier, when asked about possibly his last spring training as a Twin. “But also at the same time, I do know this is it. I mean, this is it. I’ll be a free agent.”

 

Of course, hitting free agency doesn’t necessarily mean that he won’t be on the Twins next year. It is the organization that he has been with since he was drafted out of the University of Southern Mississippi. So it isn’t safe to assume that this is his last year with the Twins. “I’m not going to say anything is going to happen or anything,” said Dozier. “But I do know: I’m a free agent at the end of the year.”

 

Ok then. Apparently Brian Dozier will be a free agent.

 

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[nater79a]

Could be a nice trade chip rental at the deadline if the Twins fall out of the race in July.

[Tuba]

Every single player on an expiring contract should be saying these things. Simple negotiating tactic. 

[dgwills]

Good to know Dozier's not an idiot. Of course he should hit free agency. This is his one shot for a huge contract.

[ashbury]

TD Exclusive?

[Vanimal46]

I don't blame anyone for wanting to explore free agency. Teams control a player for long enough.

 

I'd like to keep him as a Twin for the foreseeable future. Next winter it's time for the Twins to bid against the big market teams.

[Thrylos]

Well, then the Twins should give him a qualifying offer.  The draft pick they will get will have more value than Dozier for them, especially, since apparently he does not seem to want to be a Twin any longer.  Not very smart for him to start talking about this, especially in this environment regarding FA compensation and offers...

[Jax]

Need to keep him! Very good player and a much needed leader.

[Vanimal46]

Well, then the Twins should give him a qualifying offer. The draft pick they will get will have more value than Dozier for them, especially, since apparently he does not seem to want to be a Twin any longer. Not very smart for him to start talking about this, especially in this environment regarding FA compensation and offers...

A 2nd round pick is more valuable than Dozier? No need to take this personally. He's going to continue playing the best he can for Minnesota so he can cash in as much as possible.

 

It's up to Minnesota if they want to compete against LA, NY, and Chicago for his services.

[ashbury]

apparently he does not seem to want to be a Twin any longer. 

Let's please avoid mind-reading.

[Thrylos]

 

A 2nd round pick is more valuable than Dozier? No need to take this personally. He's going to continue playing the best he can for Minnesota so he can cash in as much as possible.

It's up to Minnesota if they want to compete against LA, NY, and Chicago for his services.

 

You are over-rating Dozier.  If he were worth anything more, he would had been a Dodger last off- season.  An overpaid second baseman is a huge luxury for most teams out there.

[Deduno Abides]

Dozier is great, or at least highly very good, and he deserves whatever he can get, but it will be interesting to see if he has a better market while looking for a multi year big bucks contract than the Twins were able to find two years earlier when he was cost-controlled and younger.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins look like they are strong up the middle, but they will miss Dozier when he is gone. I hope he gets all the money in the world.

[Doomtints]

Darn tootin.

[Vanimal46]

You are over-rating Dozier. If he were worth anything more, he would had been a Dodger last off- season. An overpaid second baseman is a huge luxury for most teams out there.

He's a top 3 2B by most every offensive statistic and WAR out there. And proved his worth by slugging 34 HRs last year after his career year in 2016.

[Thrylos]

 

He's a top 3 2B by most every offensive statistic and WAR out there. And proved his worth by slugging 34 HRs last year after his career year in 2016.

 

If you compare his 2017 with his 2015, you will find that his numbers were almost identical, other than the ones driven by his BABIP that was about 40 points higher in 2017 than 2015, and about 25 points higher than his career. 

 

To add to that, he will be 31 this season and age-based regression will continue.  Already lost a step on the bases (16/23 SB, 69.5% last season) and will not improve.  

 

How many 31 year old players got big money this off-season?   He will be older than Jay Bruce was this off-season.  Will he get a Jay Bruce type contract?   And there should be no argument that Bruce is more valuable than Dozier.

 

Edited February 28, 2018 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

No surprise at all. Good luck to him, I hope he goes the jackpot!

[slash129]

 

A 2nd round pick is more valuable than Dozier? No need to take this personally. He's going to continue playing the best he can for Minnesota so he can cash in as much as possible.

It's up to Minnesota if they want to compete against LA, NY, and Chicago for his services.

 

I had to go all the way back to 1996 to find a player (Jacques Jones) that would even be in the conversation as a 2nd rounder as good as Dozier.

 

Scott Baker and Anthony Swarzak are the only other two whose career WAR was higher than a single season WAR from Dozier.

 

The Twins have not done well in the 2nd round.

 

Baddoo, Rortvedt, Miranda and Leach have a chance at changing that, but all are low minors prospects at this point.  I'm pretty sure Eades and Melotakis won't even make the Baker/Swarzak list.  All other 2nd rounders are out of the system.

 

Anyway, Vanimal, I think the answer to your question is: Likely not.

 

Isn't prospect dreaming fun?!!

 

Edit:  My bad ... I missed Jesse Crain (Still half the career WAR of Dozier so far)

[kab21]

There are reasons to not sign Dozier to an extension or a new contract next offseason. His production during the last 5 years are not one of them. He has unarguably been GREAT. The lack of trade value is also meaningless. Very few contending teams needed a 2B last offseason and that drove down his value.

For the record I wouldn't sign Dozier to an extension or a new contract unless the market for him collapses for him. This could happen for similar reasons that FA has been slow this year. Teams don't seem keen on big contracts for aging players. This is justified by how many end up being dead weight for half of the contract.

[BJames]

Well, if the Twins didn't (don't) extend him by the end of March, yes, he'll be gone next year.  I see this as good and bad.  He's a solid player, but we have some good young players on the way up that cost less and can do more as far as run and hit for AVG. Will we miss him as a lead-off? not that much. 

[Broker]

I imagine Dozier will resign with the Twins. He might get a hefty raise to boot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He will be older than Jay Bruce was this off-season.  Will he get a Jay Bruce type contract?   And there should be no argument that Bruce is more valuable than Dozier.

Your Dozier hatred continues to amuse me.

 

Jay Bruce: 31 years old, 5806 PA, 20.3 fWAR, 18.9 rWAR

 

past 3 year WAR total: 4.2 rWAR

 

Brian Dozier: 31 years old, 3770 PA, 20.8 fWAR, 22.9 rWAR

 

past 3 year WAR total: 13.4 rWAR

 

Come on, those numbers aren't even close.

[Vanimal46]

There are reasons to not sign Dozier to an extension or a new contract next offseason. His production during the last 5 years are not one of them. He has unarguably been GREAT. The lack of trade value is also meaningless. Very few contending teams needed a 2B last offseason and that drove down his value.

 

For the record I wouldn't sign Dozier to an extension or a new contract unless the market for him collapses for him. This could happen for similar reasons that FA has been slow this year. Teams don't seem keen on big contracts for aging players. This is justified by how many end up being dead weight for half of the contract.

I think it's going to be difficult to replace what Dozier does for the team. Assuming that Gordon takes over at 2B, we'll miss out on 20+ HRs that would have came off of Dozier's bat instead of Gordon.

[less cowbell more neau]

Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Deep, dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren't for bad luck, Twins'd have no luck at all
Gloom, despair, and agony on me

 

There's always 2020

[slash129]

 

I imagine Dozier will resign with the Twins. He might get a hefty raise to boot.

 

QO will be north of $18 mill next off-season. He could just sign that and get a 100% raise.

[Dantes929]

 

There are reasons to not sign Dozier to an extension or a new contract next offseason. His production during the last 5 years are not one of them. He has unarguably been GREAT. The lack of trade value is also meaningless. Very few contending teams needed a 2B last offseason and that drove down his value.

For the record I wouldn't sign Dozier to an extension or a new contract unless the market for him collapses for him. This could happen for similar reasons that FA has been slow this year. Teams don't seem keen on big contracts for aging players. This is justified by how many end up being dead weight for half of the contract.

Exactly this.   He has been great and has been a great value.    Accept and hope that he will be a great value this year as well.    I like teams to plan for the future but there is something to having a great value in the present.     When Santana hit his last year I couldn't believe how much people wanted him traded because he would be gone the next year.    We had an undeniable ace for 11 mil for one more year.    That is a pretty awesome value in and of itself.    It was particularly annoying because that was the game 163 with Chicago season and I think it is safe to assume he would have made more than a 1 game difference and who knows how the playoffs might have gone.    Enjoy Dozier for what he can give us this year.

[Deduno Abides]

I hope he has a great 2018 to drive up his value.

[kab21]

 

I think it's going to be difficult to replace what Dozier does for the team. Assuming that Gordon takes over at 2B, we'll miss out on 20+ HRs that would have came off of Dozier's bat instead of Gordon.

Of course. Dozier is a great player right now. I am not convinced that he will be a great player from age 32-36+ though. And it is likely that he isn't even good by the end of his next contract.

The Twins have MI depth at all levels in the minors and they even have two very good backup infielders (EE is also an upcoming FA) to replace him in the starting lineup. His overall production will have to be replaced from elsewhere though.

[wabene]

He's not that bad for a guy from Mississippi.

[jctwins]

 

I hope he has a great 2018 to drive up his value.

 

Pretty much this. The FO seems ready to move to the next generation, and flip him at the deadline for younger talent.