Article: What Do The Twins See In Tyler Kinley?

[Nick Nelson]

It's no secret around here that I have mostly been a fan of what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done since taking over the Twins front office. Their decisions seem to be consistently guided by good data, intel, and intuition.

 

So when I see a perplexing course of action like this year's Rule 5 draft, I wonder what I'm missing.When the deadline arrived for teams to protect players from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota conspicuously added only three, leaving a number of vulnerable prospects exposed. Among them were several hard-throwing relievers in their mid-20s, including Nick Burdi and Luke Bard, both of whom ended up being selected last week.

 

The Twins, desperate for quality relievers and evidently playing the internal numbers game by signing a one-year plug, in the person of Fernando Rodney, might have let two essentially MLB-ready arms with real upside get away... for nothing.

 

The Twins did need some space on the 40-man, so they could add Rodney (and hopefully Yu Darvish!), but one spot was clearly designated for a Rule 5 addition of their own. That ended up being Tyler Kinley, a 26-year-old right-hander plucked from the Marlins organization.

 

What is it about Kinley that made him appealing enough for the Twins to lose Bard and especially Burdi, who could've been stashed back on the 60-day DL at the start of the season while rehabbing from Tommy John?

 

On the surface, there's no obvious answer. Kinley was a 16th-round pick for Miami back in 2013, and has since put up a 3.83 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162 pro outings (all but three out of the bullpen). He has averaged slightly more than a strikeout per inning but his control has been mediocre, and terrible above Single-A. In 27 appearances with Class-AA Jacksonville in 2017, he posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.

 

Kinley wasn't among John Sickels's preseason top 20 Marlins prospects. He wasn't even an honorable mention. In fact, Kinley has never made any kind of prospect list I could find. The consensus seems to be that he's a big (6'4", 204) righty with a live fastball and quality slider, plus a history of control problems.

 

That profile doesn't exactly differentiate him from a litany of minor-league relievers – much less a pair of high-performing high draft picks whose development the club had invested in significantly. Bard was the 42nd player taken in 2012 and signed for $1.2 million. Burdi was the 46th player taken in 2014 and also received a $1.2 million bonus. Both have mostly looked the part when healthy.

 

Kinley, meanwhile, was drafted 472nd overall in 2013, and has been very inconsistent on the mound since then. The only thing that really stands out on the stat sheet is his performance this year in the Dominican Winter League, where he has allowed five hits in 18 2/3 innings with a whopping 31 strikeouts. However, he has also issued 11 walks.

 

It bears noting that Justin Haley was also coming off a sterling performance in the DWL when the Twins took him a year ago, somewhat out of the blue. That selection didn't really pay any dividends, and it now seems clear that Minnesota could have found a better way to use its No. 1 pick in the 2016 Rule 5 draft, or just given the roster spot to someone else.

 

I'm calling on you all to help me figure this out. What do the Twins see in Tyler Kinley?

 

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[D.C Twins]

No good answer...Best case senario they outsmarted themselves...If they really wanted him (and were ONLY ones who knew he'd be good , they could have likely had him for much less than Burdi and/or Bard. I've generally been a fan of the FO but they tried way too hard here to be the smartest kid in the room.

[Monkeypaws]

Same initials as Tom Kelly?

 

That's all I got.

[Seth Stohs]

I got nothing... I kind of went off on Twitter last Thursday to the point that someone tweeted back at me saying I probably was losing an exclusive interview with Kinley.

 

To be fair, Burdi and Bard were probably 5th and 7th on my list of prospects to protect. I definitely understood that likelihood. And I'm sure Falvey and Levine understood that likelihood as well. They clearly were ok with that risk.

 

But then why select a right-handed relief pitcher who isn't nearly as good (in terms of stuff or MLB-readiness) as Bard. Burdi will miss probably all of 2018, but the Pirates can just put him on the 60 Day DL all season and then let him dominate starting in 2019. 

 

If they would have taken a pitcher who could start long-term, I may be OK with it. If they had taken Niko Goodrum from the Tigers, I would have been OK with that... but to watch two potentially strong RH RP  go and then take one, made no sense. 

 

But, Kinley has pretty much zero chance of sticking with the Twins... and I think there's a decent chance Bard comes back to the Twins, so maybe it's much ado about nothing. 

[DocBauer]

I also have been largely impressed by the new FO braintrust thus far. And it's still possible...very possible...that both Burdi and Bard will be returned to the Twins or completely wash out do to injuries and the such.

 

I can only believe that A] history shows either Burdi and/or Bard will be returned negating their initial rule 5 picks anyway, thus negating the risk to make them available, B] their own viewpoints, and those they trust, believe Kinley is one of those guys who is ready to break out and worth the risk.

 

Time will tell. And I hope they are a hell of a lot smarter than the rest of us! But IMHO, they have indeed outsmarted themselves on this one. They balked at 2 guys with high risk and upside for a guy they like with high risk and upside. 2 to 1 doesn't equate to me at all.

[Dantes929]

Kinley for Baird and Burdi.   Rodney instead of Kintzler.   Not a good month in my book. Castro was ok but nothing spectacular.    I kind of liked the Garcia transactions but the success of this season was mainly guys that we had last year that simply played a lot better this year.   I am not disappointed.   Maybe nonplussed.   Go get Darvish, Lynn or Cobb and I will change my mind.  

[mikelink45]

As a person who has consistently said prove  it I can add this to a lot of decisions that have not impressed me.  Which might mean that I am just another fan who does not get it.

 

But this maneuver is one that just does not have anything that even looks like it could be one of those - I guess I knew best - moments for the FO.  

​We have had a lot of isn't that clever notes, but this is one of those - it really isn't clever ones. 

 

[dougd]

I think Haley was picked because of his pretty good performance as a starter in AAA. In the DWL he had 5.3K/9, but a good whip. Whereas Kinley has 14.7K/9. Something is there to work with if he has started to figure things out, even if the chances aren't good.

[joemama]

My guess is they had they eyes on someone (maybe even multiple guys) and figured he (or one of them) would be available when it got to their pick. But then they weren't, so they just rolled the dice on Kinley as their next best option. They gambled and lost.

[Jacksson]

Maybe he just needs some Ricky Vaughn eyeglasses???

[Brandon]

Remember Atlanta was going to trade for Burdi knowing full well he just underwent TJ. Then changed their mind when they saw his medicals. He may not be able to cone back or for very lobg....Bard was surprising though. I thought he was close enough to protect. Its atleast with the Angels, so unless they trade him he has to stick with a playoff contending team all season.

[TL]

“If you love someone, set them free. If they come back they're yours; if they don't they never were.”

 

The Burdi move is a mystery or at least I don’t know how to truly think about whether he ends up being offered back, with the DL rules. But if they plan to add to the 40 man through free agency or trades then instead of designating Bard for assignment isn’t it more likely they retain him long-term by losing him in the rule 5?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I think Haley was picked because of his pretty good performance as a starter in AAA. In the DWL he had 5.3K/9, but a good whip. Whereas Kinley has 14.7K/9. Something is there to work with if he has started to figure things out, even if the chances aren't good.

14 K/9 in lower leagues probably won't pan out in the Majors... Gotta have at least 28 K/9 for me to buy in.

 

Rule V draft does indeed make for interestig decisions...

[theBOMisthebomb]

Kinley has pictures of the Boy Wonders in compromising positions.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

“If you love someone, set them free. If they come back they're yours; if they don't they never were.” The Burdi move is a mystery or at least I don’t know how to truly think about whether he ends up being offered back, with the DL rules. But if they plan to add to the 40 man through free agency or trades then instead of designating Bard for assignment isn’t it more likely they retain him long-term by losing him in the rule 5?

Brilliant post.

[beckmt]

I can see Burdi coming back as the first year after TJ surgery if usually not good.  Bard could be well one where the new FO outsmarted themselves.  I can see the Angels using Bard as a chip if they need to acquire an asset at midseason.  He then will get to a club that can stash him for the rest of the year.  In my mind this was not a good move.

[Thrylos]

I am not sure what they have seen in Kinley because he is the devil you don't know.  But I am impressed that they have not seen enough of Buddy Bo (esp) and Slegers to give their spots to Burdi and Bard.  Those are both replacement level (and below) devils they should know by now.

 

On the other hand, there must have something against Burdi because they tried to trade him to Atlanta last summer.

[rv78]

Another bust pick just like Pineda and Rodney. Not impressed with last years additions and so far this years have been ho hum... Is Terry Ryan still running the show? 

[Linus]

They completely botched last year's Rule 5 situation. And it appears they did it again this year. Maybe they should not bother with this. I do think hubris might be an issue here.

[sploorp]

This isn't a them for him type deal and shouldn't be looked at as one.  It's two separate things.  The priority is still adding solid arms to the roster.  To keep Burdi and Bard, they would have had to put them on the 40 man.  That's two spots the team can't fill with free agents or trades without risking losing them forever.  Right now, there is still a good chance that both of these guys will be sent back at some point.  That's a much better scenario than gone forever if they need to fill those spots with a free agent or trade.

 

With Kinley, it's more of a draft somebody (anybody) and take a look.  They probably would have done that whether they put Burdi and Bard on the 40 man or not.  There is zero chance of this guy ever blocking a trade or free agent pick up.  If they need the spot, Kinley is gone.  He will probably get sent back anyway.

[jud6312]

I think it's a case that if they're going to roll the dice on a big arm with questions they'd rather it be "their" big arm with questions, rather than someone else's big arm with questions.

 

They seem determined to leave their mark. Hopefully they don't get so blinded by that effort that they make poor and/or rash decisions.

 

I was encouraged by what they did in the draft as a whole - using the "saved" Lewis money to get Enslow helped that - but I'd call the first year of free agency mediocre at best and this postseason so far has been a bust.

 

Hopefully they either redeem themselves quickly or fall on their faces before they can do too much long-term damage.

[rdehring]

I still don't understand last year.  If Haley was the guy they wanted, why not draft him with their #1 pick?  Why go thru taking someone else and then the trade.  

[Old Twins Cap]

These Rule V picks and losses, they aren't going to matter one way or another.

 

Our Bards and Burdis will not amount to much, Kinley will get returned and end up selling used cars in Florida.

 

The most eventful recent Rule V development was when Justin Haley hit that Detroit outfielder in the head with a fastball and it lead to a near-brawl with Sano and James McCann.

 

Why even pick a guy off someone's scrap heap?

[Doomtints]

 

These Rule V picks and losses, they aren't going to matter one way or another.

 

Meh, if they don't matter then don't do it.

 

Rule 5 picks matter more than other minor league pick-ups because they gobble up roster spots.

[amjgt]

If a team can just stash a rule 5 guy on the 60 day DL then something is wrong with the system. I feel like the rules haven't caught up with the steep increase in injuries that cost players a year or more of development.

[olivia11]

I think they're trying to find their version of Corey Kluber. My guess would be that the Twins have developed some advanced metric that Kinley shows elite potential for.  Still, there's going to probably be a lot of trial and error in looking for their version of Kluber. And, as of now, I would prefer to have Burdi and/or Bard on the 40-man, but I'm going to wait and see what other moves they make this offseason.  

 

 

[mike8791]

Great analysis, Nick.  There is no logical reason for last year's and this year's Rule V decisions.  This year is totally inexplainable for all the reasons Nick and others cited above.  So why should a smart new managment team engage in such befuddling moves?

 

One answer found in the comments strikes a vibrant chord - hubris.  These guys have demonstrated they are out to prove to all the other 29 teams that they are smarter than everyone else.  I can point to several other blatant examples of this "attitude":

 

   1. With such a glaring need for pitching they drafted a shortstop rather than any one of 3 pitchers who were touted by many to be high ceiling pitchers.  As many have pointed out, middle infield is a strength in the system, high ceiling pitching is not.  Yes, much too soon to evaluate the pick(and this is no knock on Lewis) but wouldn't adding to pitching depth, especially college pitchers who could contribute far sooner than a HS SS, make more sense for this franchise?

 

   2. The selection of an untried pitching coach, Alston, over several highly regarded major league pitching coaches who suddenly came available this offseason, ranks very high on their list of puzzling decisions.  Are they smarter than 29 other organizations or are they just trying to prove how clever they are in unearthing a diamond in the rough who has never proven anything at the major league level.  This was their most consequential decision in the off season to date and to this observer, it smacks more of hubris than anything else.

 

We can conjure up a few other puzzling moves(41 year old Fernando Rodney as the new closer for one) but a pattern seems to be established to date: thjey want to prove they're the smartest men in the room rather than build on last season's success.  Sounds to me more like an "Enron" scenario than "Moneyball".

 

 

[2wins87]

I can't really defend the pick but saying "live fastball" is understating it a bit.  He's hit 100 MPH, which, while getting more common, is still rare.  I think Burdi may have hit 100 too, though I'm not positive about that, he's close at any rate.  I'm guessing that they gambled that no one would take him right after his Tommy John.  As for Bard, Kinley's definitely got more velocity but he's been wild as hell.  I like the overall package of Bard better, but the front office apparently thinks they can refine his control or something.

 

Like everyone else, I'm not a fan of the move.  I would have preferred that they fill another 40-man spot with one of their own rather than picking up a guy who's extremely unlikely to stick around for the season.

[USAFChief]

Another data point in my “I desperately WANT to like Falvine, but there’s precious little to actually base anything on so far” file.

 

Other than Castro, and some rearranging of peripheral off-field personnel, what is it someone can point out to me that I’m missing?

[nicksaviking]

No idea how this Kinley business will play out, my guess is not successfully, but fingers crossed.

 

If I had to guess why the Twins were turned on to Kinley, my money would be on the idea that the new guy, Josh Kalk, turned them on to him. He's the Pitch FX/analytics/injury prevention wiz kid the Twins stole from Tampa. Conventional data isn't giving this guy the thumbs up, it has to be something found on a deep dive.