Starting Pitchers

[Mike Sixel]

These pitchers:

 

a: have an ERA, FIP, XFIP under 5

b: play for a team not better than the Twins

c: aren't young (Fulmer) on a bad team (under 28 with years of control are off the list)

d: have pitched at least 80 innings this year

 

JC Ramirez Angels---I got no idea
Sonny Gray Athletics---gonna cost 4 players to get
Jaime Garcia Braves---old
Jeff Samardzija Giants---one of those "worse ERA than stuff" guys
Johnny Cueto Giants--can opt out if good, expensive if bad
Dan Straily Marlins---one of those "better ERA than stuff" guys
Edinson Volquez Marlins
Jacob deGrom Mets---I can't see any way they trade him, probably shouldn't be on the list
Dylan Bundy Orioles---gotta be approaching his innings' limit, and the owner won't allow a rebuild
Jhoulys Chacin Padres---does anyone trust a SD pitcher outside SD?
Ivan Nova Pirates---only 3 games out of the playoffs, are they folding?
Gerrit Cole Pirates---only 3 games out of the playoffs, are they folding?
Yu Darvish Rangers---probably pricey, rumor has they want to keep him to show Otani they are serious
Andrew Cashner Rangers---only good years were in SD
Scott Feldman Reds---I got no idea
Justin Verlander Tigers---huge contract, not been good for a bit now

 

that's your likely list of guys the Twins could get. I suppose you could get guys with big ERA and big xFIP and FIP, but why? I suppose you could empty the farm for young, cheap pitchers, but that seems unlikely.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trevor Cahill, Padres, probably doesn't meet your innings requirement, but he's right up there for available SP rentals.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Jaime Garcia it is

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzijas-oddly-dominant-season/

 

this points out that maybe Jeff isn't worse than his stuff over and over....

[gunnarthor]

Shark is owed nearly 60m the next three years and is older than Garcia. B-R WAR really doesn't like him. Only 1 season with a WAR over 3 and only two seasons with a WAR of 2 or better. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Shark is owed nearly 60m the next three years and is older than Garcia. B-R WAR really doesn't like him. Only 1 season with a WAR over 3 and only two seasons with a WAR of 2 or better. 

 

Oh, I don't like him either, but if Garcia falls thru, look at that list!

 

Ugh city.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzijas-oddly-dominant-season/

 

this points out that maybe Jeff isn't worse than his stuff over and over....

I believe the Twins defense could help that .329 BABIP he's sporting, too.

[Twodogs]

I believe the Twins defense could help that .329 BABIP he's sporting, too.

He already plays in a pitcher friendly park?

[drew_7726]

what about stroman?

[kab21]

In fairness, Verlander was pretty good in 2015 and great in 2016. This season is odd since his velocity is up but BB are way up. I wouldn't trade for him since his contract would completely block any 2018 FA pick ups. If I was a team with money to burn, I might take a chance.

 

I think that list (great work btw) shows that Garcia is a better option than his thread shows. If you don't like Garcia then accept that you are getting Gibson/Colon/random dude 2-3 times/wk. Yes, Gibson is better than whatever AAAA pitchers that the Twins can acquire for nothing since we can't trade a prospect because they aren't competing for a World Series this season.

[mikelink45]

Only Grey interests me.  Otherwise get the young guys up.  What is the stubbornness about - Romero and Gonsalves should debut and soon. 

[Riverbrian]

 

 

Dan Straily Marlins---one of those "better ERA than stuff" guys
 

 

Every time I've seen Straily pitch.  

 

I think "Better Stuff than ERA". 

 

He's my first choice off your list. 

 

 

 

 

[Oxtung]

I think the Twins FO needs to take a very open and honest look at this team and make a hard decision. Are the Twins legitimate contenders in their eyes? If yes, then they will be in 2018 as well and the FO needs to go get Grey, Cole, Straily, etc... Someone that is going to shore up this rotation for multiple years (plus I think they need to sign an above average arm this winter). I think they also need to add a multi year reliever as well.

 

If they look at the Twins and decide we are not contenders now, they won't be next year either. Dozier, Santana and Kintzler all need to go in that case. Get back the players that are going to push this core and team into relevancy.

 

This half a step, dip your toe in the water thing, doesn't help the short term nor the long term.

 

Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios are a great core but they aren't enough alone. The Twins need to decide if Mauer, Dozier, Santana, etc... are the role players to take this team needs to bring home a championship. If they are, make it happen. If they aren't then go find the players who will be.

 

If the Twins chose the middle route they will be shooting themselves in the foot not only the first two years of this core by not bringing in legitimate help, but also the next several as well by depriving the 2019-2020 Twins of much needed fresh blood.

[nicksaviking]

I'd actually be curious about J.C. Ramirez. He's been recently converted to a starter and still has a 95 MPH FB and a slider. It looks like he just added a curve this year which is probably raw but he gets good break on it.

 

He's a no-name journeyman so he's got bust potential, but that also probably means he's cheap.

[jorgenswest]

Carl Pavano would not have been near the list in 2009. We like to recall that deal as a success, but there was little competition for his services. He was pitching poorly and hadn't been good and mostly injured since 2004. The Twins were very fortunate. Maybe Anderson saw something tha helped turn Pavano's career around.

 

Who would be on the Pavano list this year?

[Deduno Abides]

This year

Carl Pavano would not have been near the list in 2009. We like to recall that deal as a success, but there was little competition for his services. He was pitching poorly and hadn't been good and mostly injured since 2004. The Twins were very fortunate. Maybe Anderson saw something tha helped turn Pavano's career around.

Who would be on the Pavano list this year?

This year, it would be great for Falvine to find a Kluber or Arrieta, or even a Pavano, but the fans won't like it. Just about everyone on Mike's list is a known entity, with known upside, and the cost will approximate the known upside and not factor in the risk, especially this time of the year.

[Mike Sixel]

It shows how few pitchers are really available.

[ahart10]

Bundy would be an interesting buy low candidate. Nova is my dream acquisition.

[Oxtung]

Bundy would be an interesting buy low candidate. Nova is my dream acquisition.

I had similar thoughts on Bundy and Gausman. I think a buy low candidate could work. At least it's better than a back of the rotation rental as there is future value possibilities. As always it depends on the price.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I wonder what it would take to get the last two and a half years of Verlander. 

 

Of course, with Jim Pohlad demanding veto power over tiny salary moves like Jaime Garcia, I think the chances are pretty close to zero that any halfway decent free agent pitcher is ever signed here. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I had similar thoughts on Bundy and Gausman. I think a buy low candidate could work. At least it's better than a back of the rotation rental as there is future value possibilities. As always it depends on the price.

I would guess that Baltimore would ask for (if they thought Gordon was off-limits) both Gonsalves and Romero as a starting point. That might be light.

[ahart10]

I would guess that Baltimore would ask for (if they thought Gordon was off-limits) both Gonsalves and Romero as a starting point. That might be light.

For one of Bundy, Gausman or both? Gausman is having a "very rough" year and can't have much value.

[gunnarthor]

 

For one of Bundy, Gausman or both? Gausman is having a "very rough" year and can't have much value.

For Gausman. Sure, he's having a tough year but he's still under team control until 2021. He is relatively affordable and Baltimore isn't going to give up on him anymore than we were going to give up on Berrios.* They'll want a strong return or they just keep him.

 

* the two situations are not identical. I know that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For one of Bundy, Gausman or both? Gausman is having a "very rough" year and can't have much value.

Baltimore is resisting selling altogether, and there would be no need to sell low on Gausman anyway right now -- he's controlled for 3 more years after this one.

[ahart10]

For Gausman. Sure, he's having a tough year but he's still under team control until 2021. He is relatively affordable and Baltimore isn't going to give up on him anymore than we were going to give up on Berrios.* They'll want a strong return or they just keep him.

 

* the two situations are not identical. I know that.

They gave up on Arrieta

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They gave up on Arrieta

Arrieta always sucked for the Orioles.  77 ERA+, peaked at 89 in his rookie year.  Gausman had a 118 last year, and is still at 95 career even with his poor 2017 numbers.

[HitInAPinch]

 

In fairness, Verlander was pretty good in 2015 and great in 2016. This season is odd since his velocity is up but BB are way up. I wouldn't trade for him since his contract would completely block any 2018 FA pick ups. If I was a team with money to burn, I might take a chance.

 

I think that list (great work btw) shows that Garcia is a better option than his thread shows. If you don't like Garcia then accept that you are getting Gibson/Colon/random dude 2-3 times/wk. Yes, Gibson is better than whatever AAAA pitchers that the Twins can acquire for nothing since we can't trade a prospect because they aren't competing for a World Series this season.

Verlander probably has weak legs from hanging out with Kate Upton too much.....

[Siehbiscuit]

Well the Twins just got Jamie Garcia and someone else for RHP Ynoa.

[jimbo92107]

 

Only Grey interests me.  Otherwise get the young guys up.  What is the stubbornness about - Romero and Gonsalves should debut and soon. 

Pretty much same here. All these rentals assume the Twins want to load up for a Series run, which is unrealistic with this year's team. Otherwise it's far, far better to keep the farm intact, sell nothing, nurture your prospects, bring up a few guys like Gonsalves, Garver, Stewart, Slegers, Hurlbut, etc. See how they look in September, then reload in spring 2018. Guys doing well in AAA and AA should get a cuppa coffee this season. Let that experience motivate them and provide information for further improvements. 

 

Felix Jorge is a good example. He came up, had one good game, one bad game. Went back down to AA and isn't doing that well. I'm assuming that's because he's working on key improvements that will help him succeed later. Surviving in the mlb is different from dominating in the minors, where hitters swing more often at junk. Hopefully Jorge will learn to attack the zone and use his fielders to get more quick outs. Nibbling doesn't work in the bigs, ask Kyle Gibson. 

 

Meanwhile, Twins should stand pat with their system. Enjoy this developing team, but don't expect them to do much this season. The FO should be ready to deal Dozier this winter, move Polanco to 2B, Adrianza at SS, or we see if Vielma or Gordon are better next spring. We might even see Adranza SS and Gordon 2B, who knows. I do expect Gonsalves and Stewart in the rotation next season, and Romero in the mix fairly early. Almost time to shuck the lame old veterans for serious young talent. 

[nicksaviking]

They gave up on Arrieta

Which surely will be in the back of their mind when considering former top prospects.