Game Thread: Twins @ Astros, 7/15 @ 6:10 CT

Probable Starters: Ervin Santana (10-6, 2.99 ERA) vs Joe Musgrove (4-7, 6.04 ERA)

 

-5 Thoughts-

 

1. Examining Joe Musgrove
If the Twins are going to have any chance to beat the Astros for the first time this season, they’ll need to topple Musgrove. However, Musgrove has already been disastrous, allowing 27 runs (all earned) in 29.2 innings in his last six starts. In four of those starts, he’s given up 4 or more runs (including a 7 and 9 run game!). If the Twins work this right, they should be able to get him out before he throws five innings and start wearing down Houston’s bullpen. Musgrove has given up 10.7 hits per 9 innings and 1.8 HRs per 9, so the Twins need to hit him up to win this one.

 

2. Twins Hitters Summer Stats
Let’s take a look at how Twins hitters have fared from June to July so far, and perhaps we will find some interesting things in their stat lines. (stats come from Baseball-Reference’s Game Logs)

(if you’re not familiar with the triple slash line, it’s (.Batting Average, .OnBase %, .Slugging %).

Jason Castro (.223/.291/.340)
Joe Mauer (.287/.359/.400)
Brian Dozier (.238/.307/.424)
Jorge Polanco (.162/.208/.232)
Miguel Sano (.254/.329/.472)
Eddie Rosario (.310/.355/.491)
Byron Buxton (.237/.297/.347)
Max Kepler (.270/.333/.460)
Robbie Grossman (.242/.355/.333)
Eduardo Escobar (.330/.375/.500)
Kennys Vargas (.235/.303/.358)

 

My thoughts: Castro, Mauer, Dozier, and Kepler look about where they should be. Sano’s batting average and contact rate have dropped, though I never expected him to stay above .300. He’s probably going to be a .260 to .270 hitter with tons of power and strikeouts. Meanwhile Rosario and Escobar have been lighting things up. Rosario needs to be in the lineup every day until the hot streak ends and Escobar will probably be playing more often too with Polanco’s struggles. Grossman is still an OBP monster but he brings very little power as a DH/corner OF. Buxton’s numbers are actually a tad lower than I expected, but let’s take a closer look:
Two of the struggling bats in the lineup have been Buxton and Polanco. Each of their seasons have had turning points:

Byron Buxton Apr. 3 to Apr. 24 (.105/.177/.140)
Buxton Apr. 25 to July 14th (.250/.324/.360)
Jorge Polanco Apr. 3 to June 23rd (.253/.302/.366)
Polanco June 24th to July 14th (.115/.167/.164)

 

Wow, their stat lines during their positive and negative streaks are incredibly similar!  Polanco isn’t flailing away and striking out at a 50% clip like Buxton was, but he’s hitting more pop-ups and weak contact than usual. He needs to figure things out and get that bat going again. It’s his best tool and I believe he can get back to at least that his earlier 2017 line. Not sure about his defense though…

 

3. Lineups

Twins

 

Astros

1. George Springer ® CF
2. Jose Altuve ® 2B
3. Josh Reddick (L) RF
4. Carlos Correa ® SS
5. Carlos Beltran (S) DH
6. Yuli Gurriel ® 1B
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF
8. Evan Gattis ® C
9. Alex Bregman ® 3B

 

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5. Tomorrow’s Game Thread
I hope you guys will be around for tomorrow’s game thread, as I have a special event planned. Yes, the Strat-O-Matic Simulation will return. If you’re not familiar with what I’m talking about, Strat-o-Matic Baseball is a board game that simulates a baseball game quite accurately. I will posting how the simulation results in real time alongside the actual game, similar to how I did a couple times last season. Will the Twins finally be able to top the Astros, if only in a simulated game? We will find out tomorrow!

 

 

Alright Twins, time to beat the best team in the American league!

Edited July 15, 20179 yr by Danchat

I hope we win!

Here's the Twins' lineup:

 

1. Brian Dozier ® 2B
2. Zack Granite (L) CF
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B
4. Miguel Sano ® 3B
5. Max Kepler (L) RF
6. Robbie Grossman (S) DH
7. Eddie Rosario (L) LF
8. Jorge Polanco (S) SS
9. Jason Castro (L) C

 

Wow, they're serious about getting Granite some ABs. I'd also like to see Polanco on the bench...

 

Mauer will replace Buxton, who's headed to the DL.

 

Here's the Twins' lineup:

 

4. Miguel Sano ® 3B

 

I know it's just auto-correct changing the ( R ) to the trademark sign, but maybe the Twins could trademark Sano and prevent him from leaving. 

I know it's just auto-correct changing the ( R ) to the trademark sign, but maybe the Twins could trademark Sano and prevent him from leaving.

I thought it was a copyright sign...

 

And i don't blame it on auto correct, but on this "text smiley faces just aren't visually entertaining enough for us" converter.

 

Ah for the days of asci art...

Here's the Twins' lineup:

 

1. Brian Dozier ® 2B

2. Zack Granite (L) CF

3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B

4. Miguel Sano ® 3B

5. Max Kepler (L) RF

6. Robbie Grossman (S) DH

7. Eddie Rosario (L) LF

8. Jorge Polanco (S) SS

9. Jason Castro (L) C

 

Wow, they're serious about getting Granite some ABs. I'd also like to see Polanco on the bench...

 

Mauer will replace Buxton, who's headed to the DL.

Doesnt make a lot of sense to me, I'd like to see Mauer 2nd and Sano 3rd so as to get those two more at bats. Have Granite hit just before Polanco.

Find out soon enough how it plays out...

 

Sad about Buxton.

 

But i am sure he will come back faster than we can possibly imagine.

Sell high!

Springer would have been out with an accurate throw

Hitter's count, little chopper for Polanco.

 

I can't remember his last hit!

Granite batting second? Escober not at short. Polanco is Molly's Santana at short.

Polanco looks more and more like Danny Santana.

Mauer being a ballhog, what else is new

Unbelievable that Mauer cut that throw. Eddie finally airmails one directly to the intended recipient and it gets cut off 15 feet in front of the plate.

Unbelievable that Mauer cut that throw. Eddie finally airmails one directly to the intended recipient and it gets cut off 15 feet in front of the plate.

Wouldn't Ervin be directing whether the ball should be cut, as the back up?

Gimenez should be the regular catcher right now, Escobar the regular shortstop

Wouldn't Ervin be directing whether the ball should be cut, as the back up?

Catcher calls that, if he can. I think; not sure.

Granite batting second in the order is being paralyzed by hope.

45 pitches for Santana after 2 innings.

Twins finally got Springer out once. It is possible, folks.

 

PS you were right about the other All Star game pitchers starting on Saturday, however with the big caveat that only three starters pitched in that game. Sale, Santana, Vargas. Interesting that Francona sent the Minny and KC pitchers out to pitch but not the others. Funny how that works.

Gimenez should be the regular catcher right now, Escobar the regular shortstop

Why? Neither one is an offensive impact. Castro is the better defender. Giminez's numbers are better because he gets a lot of playing time vs lhp, which he has always hit better.

The video is up on the Mauer cut-off play. Santana is hoping around. He couldn't believe he cut the ball off. Neither could Castro. It wouldn't have even happened if Rosario had made the play off the wall cleanly. But the throw probably would have gotten him. Good thing Rosario made the throw and not Granite.

So this Houston pitcher is actually not that good, though you'd never know it by watching this

Why? Neither one is an offensive impact. Castro is the better defender. Giminez's numbers are better because he gets a lot of playing time vs lhp, which he has always hit better.

Probably, as i wasn't considering platoon splits. Castro is doing zero defensively right now.

The video is up on the Mauer cut-off play. Santana is hoping around. He couldn't believe he cut the ball off. Neither could Castro. It wouldn't have even happened if Rosario had made the play off the wall cleanly. But the throw probably would have gotten him. Good thing Rosario made the throw and not Granite.

Did it look like Castro could have tagged the runner up on the shoulder or helmet, but well before he crossed the plate.

I feel good things happening....

Probably, as i wasn't considering platoon splits. Castro is doing zero defensively right now.

In his next start Gimenez will pass 130 plate apperances. That would be the second highest total of his career. The highest total is 155, just last year. I have a hunch playing more would result in reduced production. Not additional.

 

Jason Castro, btw, will likely establish his 3rd highest number of plate appearances in his career.

Kepler Grossman Rosario

 

out out out

 

 

Bring it home, game threaders

 

Kepler Grossman Rosario

out out out


Bring it home, game threaders

Can't we all just be thankful that we didn't have to watch Polanco hit with the bases loaded?