Dozier-to-Dodgers Feedback

[markos]

I've found the conversations within the various Dozier-to-Dodgers threads to be facinating. Not only has the conversation been smart, but everyone has been very respectful of each others opinions - and wow, those opinions vary wildly! Since it sounds like the hot stove will be only slowly simmering over the holidays, I'd like to do a little project. In order to get a broader sense of the breath of opinions out there, I'd like people to share their thoughts about the Dodgers system and Dozier's value. Feel free to message me directly if you don't feel like commenting publicly. Once 2017 rolls in, I'll compile the results and share what the broader community thinks about the value of Dozier and the Dodger prospects.

 

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions:
1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?
2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?
3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?
4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?
5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?
6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?
7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?
9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?
10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?
11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

[markos]

My answers:

 

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez
2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

Alvarez, De Leon, <gap>, Buehler, Stewart, <gap> Sheffield, Stripling
3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

Bellinger, <gap>, Diaz, Verdugo, <gap>, Lux, <gap>, Calhoun
4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

Taylor, Thompson, Toles
5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?

Caleb Ferguson, Mitch White
6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?

Calhoun, Van Slyke, Barnes
7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

De Leon, Stewart, Thompson
8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?

De Leon, Buehler, Stewart
9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?

Yes
10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?

4 & 3.5
11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

25

[AZTwin]

I've found the conversations within the various Dozier-to-Dodgers threads to be facinating. Not only has the conversation been smart, but everyone has been very respectful of each others opinions - and wow, those opinions vary wildly! Since it sounds like the hot stove will be only slowly simmering over the holidays, I'd like to do a little project. In order to get a broader sense of the breath of opinions out there, I'd like people to share their thoughts about the Dodgers system and Dozier's value. Feel free to message me directly if you don't feel like commenting publicly. Once 2017 rolls in, I'll compile the results and share what the broader community thinks about the value of Dozier and the Dodger prospects.

 

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions:

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?

6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?

7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?

9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?

10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?

11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

My answers:

 

1. Urias

2. Alvarez, de Leon, Buehler, Sheffield, Stewart

3. Bellinger, lux, verdigo, Calhoun

4. Maybe as a 4th piece assuming Alvarez, de leon and Bellinger or lux are already included

5. Keibert Ruiz

6. Anybody can be had if they are valued properly. For example if dodgers value a 5'8" DH as a top 100 prospect in baseball I probably don't want him. If he's a 4th piece then sure.

7. At least 2 of Bellinger, de Leon, and Alvarez and then some high upside. I'll say Bellinger, Alvarez, Keibert Ruiz and then maybe a fringe prospect like de Jong

8. All 3 of the big 3 mentioned above plus high upside player.

9. No

10. 5-7 both years

11. I'll set it at 30

[Mike Sixel]

) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?
Urias, Bellinger,
2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Jose De Leon, ????
3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, massive gap, massive,  not sure I care
4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): I actually don't care about the third piece at all.....get the first two right
5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?
not sure
6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?
no one
7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?
De Leon, Stewart, Thompson---as stated above, this seems about minimum to me De Leon and Stewart and ????
8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?
De Leon, Alvarez, best available OF from their system
9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?
Yes--100% yes. If you won't trade your older stars as a rebuilding team, you never finish your rebuild
10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?
4.5 & 3.728564354 (as you know, WAR is super precise....)
11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?
28

[beehles]

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions:

 

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable? Urias, Bellinger
2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

De Leon, Alvarez, Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield, Stripling
3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

Bellinger, Lux, Verdugo, Calhoun, Diaz
4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

Barnes, Toles, Thompson, Puig
5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like? Mitchell White
6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list? DH type, other than Calhoun as a possible 3rd/4th piece
7) What is your minimum acceptable trade? De Leon, one of Alvarez/Buehler, one of Stewart/Barnes/Toles/Thompson/Puig

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)? De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart
9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day? Yes, love Dozier but he's our best chip to improve the rotation/team sooner than later
10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018? 6 & 5
11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017? 34

 

Good stuff, thanks!

[Thrylos]

1. Urias, Alvarez, Buehler, Bellinger - mainly because of the investment already in Alvarez
2. Alvarez, De Leon, Stewert, Buehler, Stripling
3. Bellinger and then pick from a hat
4. Barnes only. 
5. Melvin Jimenez, Chase De Jong, Leonardo Crawford, Shea Spitzbarth
6. Any position player other than Barnes, esp with 40-man roster requirement
7. De Leon, Stewart
8. De Leon, Stewart, De Jong, Spitzbarth 
Ideally, I would add more players though.  Something like Dozier + Park + Santiago for those 4 + Puig + Hyun-Jin Ryu
9. Total failure
10. 8ish for both seasons
11. 30- check out the NL West Park sizes

[Mike Sixel]

I think Thrylos just made a good point, if the 2nd and third pieces need to be on the 40 man, but aren't MLB ready, that could be an issue (I think that was his point)...

[AZTwin]

I'm not sure what twins fans facisnation with Stewart is. A 4 or 5 starter. De Leon is good but he has durability issues and his stuff isn't fooling major league hitters. Already 24 too. He carries a lot of risk and profiles as a 3. If it's just those two then dodgers fleeced the twins. To get one of the top MIF in baseball you should have to give up at least 1 prospect that hurts a bit. Bellinger or Alvarez absolutely need to be included. You can keep your stud Urias and be happy you did

[Oxtung]

 

I've found the conversations within the various Dozier-to-Dodgers threads to be facinating. Not only has the conversation been smart, but everyone has been very respectful of each others opinions - and wow, those opinions vary wildly! Since it sounds like the hot stove will be only slowly simmering over the holidays, I'd like to do a little project. In order to get a broader sense of the breath of opinions out there, I'd like people to share their thoughts about the Dodgers system and Dozier's value. Feel free to message me directly if you don't feel like commenting publicly. Once 2017 rolls in, I'll compile the results and share what the broader community thinks about the value of Dozier and the Dodger prospects.

 

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions:
1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?
2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?
3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?
4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?
5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?
6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?
7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?
9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?
10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?
11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

 

1) Urias (actually I just don't think the Twins have anything that could fetch him. My guess is he's available for the right piece)

2) De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, Buehler, Sheffield, Wood, Stripling

3) Bellinger, Verdugo, Toles, K Ruiz, Diaz, Lux, ... , Calhoun

4) Toles, Barnes

5) Brito, K Ruiz, White

6) Calhoun

7) Alvarez, Verdugo, Stewart, Sheffield

8) De Leon, Bellinger, Buehler, K Ruiz

9) Certainly not a failure.  He provides things the Twins needs other than getting to the playoffs

10) 6-8 WAR total

11) 29.5

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions:

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

 

Urias

 

2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

 

De Leon

Alvarez

Buehler

Stewart

Sheffield

Stripling

 

3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

 

Bellinger

Verdugo

Lux

Calhoun

Diaz

 

4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

 

Any of them, if the first two are what DaveW says his source says. But Barnes at the top of that list,

 

5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?

 

No clue. Rookie ball or low A guys with flaws and upside? Quantity is important in this trade.

 

6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?

 

People have made a compelling argument for Calhoun to be on this list, but I don't know.

 

7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

 

De Leon, Buehler and Stewart

 

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?

 

De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, and Barnes

 

9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?

 

Yes

 

10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?

 

4.5 and 4

 

11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

 

26

 

Bonus: What do you predict the actual trade will be and when?

 

De Leon, Alvarez, and two throw-ins we likely have never heard of...I'll guess Dustin May and Ismani Abdullah. January 3.

[70charger]

My unsophisticated answers, based mostly on listening to the discussion here. Yes, this does include reading more than 100 forum pages of the Dozier trade discussion. All of it. For better and for worse.

 

 

1. Urias, Bellinger, Buehler

 

 

2. Urias, Alvarez, de Leon, Buehler, Sheffield, Stewart

 

 

3. Bellinger, Verdugo, Lux, Calhoun, Diaz

 

 

4. Pretty much any of them if we're talking about a 3rd of 4th piece. I really just think those first two players ought to knock our socks off. I'm fine with taking an older guy like a Van Slyke as well, but you gotta get the headliners right.

 

 

5. Don't have enough expertise for this one. Maybe Chase de Jong?

 

 

6. I don't think I'd lock anybody out. I don't know that Puig has a good fit on the Twins, but if we say absolutely no to anyone, we give up leverage. Who knows, we could even flip a guy like Puig, or use him or others to create a three-team trade. 

 

 

7. De Leon (should we call him De Rigeur at this point?) and Alvarez. Throw-ins after that don't matter much. I'd also consider De Leon plus at least three from a list of high-upside younger guys (guys like Lux or Sheffield) and major-league-ready role players (guys like Van Slyke or Andrew Toles). I'd really prefer that the next guy after De Leon be a very-high-upside guy like Alvarez, because quality over quantity, but I am also of the opinion that this trade really needs to happen.

 

 

8. De Leon and one Alvarez or Buehler if they'll give him up (they won't) or Bellinger (also won't), plus two more pieces probably in the minors for another year or three.

 

 

9. Yeah, pretty much. I mean, I'm willing to avoid baying for front-office blood if it doesn't happen because we probably won't ever know for real what was and wasn't on the table. But I really think that something ought to happen here. For the future of the club.

 

 

10. Most likely between 4 and 6. Leaving room for injuries or for a repeat of his awesome 2016.

 

 

11. 35.

[AZTwin]

I'm not sure why people have 3 untouchables. I mean we are giving them dozier and letting them keep their top prospect. They should let us pick the first two, any two in their system and then high upside guys

[Darius]

The breath of the options is garlicky, I'd imagine.

[Squirrel]

I'm not sure why people have 3 untouchables. I mean we are giving them dozier and letting them keep their top prospect. They should let us pick the first two, any two in their system and then high upside guys

For the purposes of this thread, let's not make this yet another discussion/debate thread. Markos started this for the purposes of gathering information, not to rehash debate already occurring in another thread. It's already a given we all have varying opinions based on the other threads, so let's let people freely submit their answers to the questions, without questioning their answers.

 

Thank you everyone.

[puddle]

Hi everyone, Dodgers fan here to give my perspective!

 

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions:
1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

Urias isn't really a prospect anymore, but Urias of course. Bellinger. Probably Alvarez as well, considering how much they invested in him and passed on Yoan Moncada in order to spend on Alvarez, Diaz and Sierra.

 

2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

1a) Alvarez (if you prefer high ceiling)

1b) De Leon (if you prefer high floor)

...

3) Buehler

4) Stewart

...

5) Sheffield

..

6) Stripling

 

3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

1) Bellinger

...

2) Verdugo

3) Calhoun

...

4) Lux

5) Diaz

 

4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

From a Dodgers fan perspective, in order of most want to keep to least:

Barnes (he's old for a prospect, but Dodgers are win-now, and he's a perfect backup)

Toles

Thompson

...

Taylor

Van Slyke

 

5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?

Trevor Oaks seems like a future 200 IP #4/#5 workhorse in the mold of Brett Anderson, without all the injuries

Keibert Ruiz is a really interesting catching prospect with both offensive and defensive promise

 

6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?

I guess I'll list the Dodgers prospects who I think are overrated: Diaz, Lux, Smith, Heredia, Estevez

 

7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

I'd be unhappy if they sacrificed more than JDL/Calhoun/40 prospect. Lots of people here seem down on Calhoun though, so call it JDL/Lux/40 prospect if you prefer.

 

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?

I don't love giving up JDL - I think he's ready to be a great pitcher right now - but assuming he's the minimum price, JDL + Diaz or Lux would make me happy. If you can't tell, I'm really high on De Leon.

 

9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?

I'd be a disappointment from my perspective because I do like Dozier, but I'd trust the Dodgers FO to find another option. I think the Twins are selling high right now and will kick themselves if they wait.

 

10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?

I expect he'll compile around 7 fWAR over the next two seasons.

 

11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

29

[snepp]

Apologies for not contributing to the thread itself, but wanted to acknowledge the great outside contribution from puddle.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

Urias

 

2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

De Leon, Alvarez --- Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield --- Wood, Stripling

 

3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

Bellinger --- Verdugo, Calhoun --- Lux, Diaz

 

4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

Puig, Thompson --- Barnes, Toles

 

6)Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?

I have no idea

 

6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?

The only thing I don't want is a sub par headliner with De Leon

 

7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

De Leon, Buehler, Puig

 

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?

De Leon, Alvarez, Puig, Sheffield (maybe we have to throw in another player like Santiago or Perkins)

 

9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?

No, is value may not be as high at the trade deadline but we may possibly have more suitors. Maybe we'll even be in the playoff race (very optimistic assuming)

 

10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?

Combined 10

 

11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

27

[DocBauer]

I'm going to keep things very simple here and focus in just a couple points.

 

Untouchable? Arias and Bellinger.

 

What do I want? (And see as fair) JDL, Alvarez, and Stewart-Buehler-Sheffield. I'd be happy to stop right there and be happy as can be and call it fair for both sides. But if I could come away with Van Slyke as a 4th player and an excellent 4th OF/role player for the Twins you could color me pink.

[puddle]

 

Apologies for not contributing to the thread itself, but wanted to acknowledge the great outside contribution from puddle.

Hey, thanks! Seems like a great blog with level-headed people. I'll be stalking you all from a distance

[puddle]

 

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

Urias

 

2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?

De Leon, Alvarez --- Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield --- Wood, Stripling

 

3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?

Bellinger --- Verdugo, Calhoun --- Lux, Diaz

 

4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?

Puig, Thompson --- Barnes, Toles

 

6)Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?

I have no idea

 

6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?

The only thing I don't want is a sub par headliner with De Leon

 

7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?

De Leon, Buehler, Puig

 

8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)?

De Leon, Alvarez, Puig, Sheffield (maybe we have to throw in another player like Santiago or Perkins)

 

9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?

No, is value may not be as high at the trade deadline but we may possibly have more suitors. Maybe we'll even be in the playoff race (very optimistic assuming)

 

10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?

Combined 10

 

11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?

27

 

If De Leon, Buehler, Puig is your minimum, I think you're going to be very disappointed, because there is zero chance the Dodgers front office does that. Let's talk values.

 

Puig is only 25 and projects to be a 3 fWAR player on a $6m salary for the next 2 years. Assuming 1 fWAR = $8.5m, that's about $39m in surplus value over the course of the next two seasons. Dozier is also projected to be a 3 fWAR player. He's on a $5m salary for the next 2 years, meaning that's $41m in surplus value. Despite Puig having the age advantage, let's add in a few million more to Dozier because his success is more recent and Puig's had a rough last 2 years, both on and off the field. Let's call it a $8.5m difference - 1 fWAR - to make it easy. That's almost nothing. Maybe a guy like Will Smith who projects for 2.5 fWAR over the next 6 seasons would be the extra piece if Puig was the headliner. But De Leon alone projects for 10.1 fWAR over the next 6 seasons. Using this formula to approximate prospect values (and updating for $8.5m per WAR), we'd use we get $69.7m of gross value and a Prospect Cost During Team Control of $29.65. That leaves an excess value of... almost exactly $40m.

 

Based on these values, De Leon for Dozier straight up, frankly, would be a reasonable deal. Puig for Dozier straight up would also be a reasonable deal, although now it's tilting towards the Dodgers, which is why it'd be reasonable to throw in a mid-level prospect with Puig.

 

Puig + De Leon + Buehler is about $100m of excess value. Dozier alone is about $40m. Maybe that helps you understand why, as a Dodgers fan, I would be disappointed if the Dodgers gave up much more than De Leon for Dozier.

[Lonestar]

Great thread.

 

1. Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?

Technically, only Urias. 

Likely Bellinger because the starting point should be JDL and the two combined would be an overpay. 
JDL might also make Stewart unavailable because it eats too much into their 2017 rotation depth that they can stash in AAA.
I don’t see Alvarez and Buehler available in the same deal.

2. How do you rank the pitching prospects?
JDL, Alvarez, Buehler, Stewart, White, Sheffield, Sborz, Abdullah
Stripling is not a prospect, but I like him more than Haley. In other words, there is likely a place for him on the 25 man roster. I think I would slot him after Sheffield.

 

3. How do you rank the hitting prospects?
Bellinger, Verdugo, Diaz, Calhoun, Barnes, Toles,  Lux, Ruiz.

4. Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece: Barnes, Taylor, Thompson, Toles, Van Slyke?
Part of this depends on who the 2nd piece is, assuming JDL is the first piece.
I would love for Austin Barnes to be the third piece.  I think he could be the regular catcher (although we likely won’t have to worry about that for 3 years) and I love his versatility.  For those reasons, I doubt he is available. I could include JR Murphy in the deal, if necessary.
Toles would be a great 3rd piece although not a great fit for the Twins with his platoon splits, given Kepler’s and Rosario’s splits. I think he ticketed to start against RHP’s for the Dodgers.
I don’t see how the Dodgers can fit Van Slyke and Thompson on the same 25-man roster, but I think Thompson has an option left. I would much prefer Thompson as our 4th OF over Grossman. Toles is worth more than Thompson.
Chris Taylor could be a 4th piece. Emphasis would be on 1st and 2nd piece.

 

5. Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?
I don’t know if they qualify as sleepers based on the fangraphs’ write-up, but Mitch White and Keibert Ruiz would be nice adds.

6. Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?
According to everyone but Fangraphs, Calhoun is the Dodger’s  5th rated prospect at worst. That means he should be in consideration. My biggest objections to Calhoun are that he is a year away from being MLB-ready and being possibly flappable. Also the market is not kind to DH’s. So Calhoun would have to be a 3rd piece.
Puig hit well since the end of May.  He did everything the Dodgers asked in AAA and hit well upon his return. They put him on their post-season roster. I don’t think Puig is available as a 3rd piece. I would take him if I was happy with the 2nd piece.

7. What is your minimum acceptable trade?
JDL and Alvarez or JDL, Stewart, White, and Ruiz or JDL, Calhoun, White and Ruiz

 

8. What is your dream trade?
JDL, Alvarez/Buehler, White and Ruiz or JDL, Verdugo, White and Ruiz.

 

9. Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?
It depends on what the Dodgers offer and if we know what they offered.  His trade value will never be higher. There is no comparable, affordable 2B on the market. There will not be a better match (in terms of need and talent) than the Dodgers. Forsythe will likely be available at the deadline.  Baez might become available at any time.

10. What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018?
9 total WAR.  $66M surplus value

11. If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?
25

[mudcat14]

 

1 - Urias, Bellinger

2 - De Leon, Alvarez, Beuhler, Stewart

3 - Bellinger, Diaz, Calhoun, Lux, Verdugo

4 - Taylor, Toles, Puig

5 - DeJong

6 - Thompson

7 - Alvarez, Beuhler, Lux, DeJong

8 - De Leon, Alvarez, Lux

9 - Not at all

10 - Comparable to last year

11 - 30

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

If De Leon, Buehler, Puig is your minimum, I think you're going to be very disappointed, because there is zero chance the Dodgers front office does that. Let's talk values.

 

Puig is only 25 and projects to be a 3 fWAR player on a $6m salary for the next 2 years. Assuming 1 fWAR = $8.5m, that's about $39m in surplus value over the course of the next two seasons. Dozier is also projected to be a 3 fWAR player. He's on a $5m salary for the next 2 years, meaning that's $41m in surplus value. Despite Puig having the age advantage, let's add in a few million more to Dozier because his success is more recent and Puig's had a rough last 2 years, both on and off the field. Let's call it a $8.5m difference - 1 fWAR - to make it easy. That's almost nothing. Maybe a guy like Will Smith who projects for 2.5 fWAR over the next 6 seasons would be the extra piece if Puig was the headliner. But De Leon alone projects for 10.1 fWAR over the next 6 seasons. Using this formula to approximate prospect values (and updating for $8.5m per WAR), we'd use we get $69.7m of gross value and a Prospect Cost During Team Control of $29.65. That leaves an excess value of... almost exactly $40m.

 

Based on these values, De Leon for Dozier straight up, frankly, would be a reasonable deal. Puig for Dozier straight up would also be a reasonable deal, although now it's tilting towards the Dodgers, which is why it'd be reasonable to throw in a mid-level prospect with Puig.

 

Puig + De Leon + Buehler is about $100m of excess value. Dozier alone is about $40m. Maybe that helps you understand why, as a Dodgers fan, I would be disappointed if the Dodgers gave up much more than De Leon for Dozier.

You bring up good points and clearly know what you're talking about. And that is a good amount to ask for, but Puig is a guy the Dodgers have had their trouble with as you would know, being sent to AAA and rumors about him being traded and was mostly a 4th OF in the playoffs, his value is low right now. De Leon and Buehler are just prospects. The odds of 1 turning out let alone both to be very good pitchers is low. I mean a Dodgers writer just wrote about trading both Bellinger and De Leon for Dozier, that's not gonna happen, but no way is it just De Leon in a trade.

[puddle]

 

You bring up good points and clearly know what you're talking about. And that is a good amount to ask for, but Puig is a guy the Dodgers have had their trouble with as you would know, being sent to AAA and rumors about him being traded and was mostly a 4th OF in the playoffs, his value is low right now. De Leon and Buehler are just prospects. The odds of 1 turning out let alone both to be very good pitchers is low. I mean a Dodgers writer just wrote about trading both Bellinger and De Leon for Dozier, that's not gonna happen, but no way is it just De Leon in a trade.

I agree the Dodgers would be selling low on Puig, which is why, ultimately, I don't think they move him right now. The outfield is crowded, but he's 2 seasons removed from a 5.6 fWAR season and is only making $7m a year. The volatility in projecting his future performance makes it as hard for teams to want him as it is for the Dodgers to be willing to move him.

 

Yes, De Leon and Buehler are just prospects, but prospects have specific values, which are highly dependent on whichever forecast you trust. Each team surely has its own projections and so valuation can differ slightly, but I'm willing to bet the Twins and Dodgers both know that De Leon and Dozier's excess values aren't far apart.

 

That being said, small changes in the forecasts can make a big difference. If you're the Twins and you project De Leon to be worth 9 fWAR over 6 seasons and Dozier to be worth 8 over 2, that's $30m excess vs. $58m excess value. A difference in $28m excess value would necessitate you asking the Dodgers to add another top tier prospect, like Alex Verdugo, who, if you trust Fangraphs' KATOH projection, is projected to be worth 8.6 fWAR over 6 seasons, or, about $29m in excess value. If you're the Dodgers, though, and you project De Leon to be worth 13 fWAR over 6 seasons and Dozier to be worth 6 over 2, that's $44.8m in excess value vs. $41m in excess value, which, you could see, would make them hesitant to give up anything more than De Leon alone. Yes, there is risk in prospects, but that risk is factored in to the forecasts.

 

For this reason, I can understand why the Twins are asking for more than the Dodgers are willing to give up. I can also understand why the Dodgers are reluctant to give up a whole lot more than JDL. I do think the deal ultimately gets done with a package like JDL+Toles+Heredia or something along those lines, but expecting SEVERAL top tier prospects in return is just not going to happen. I don't have access to the Dodgers' proprietary data, obviously, but I know how Friedman/Zaidi think and how they evaluate trade options. I guarantee they're doing valuations similarly to how I am. It would shock me to see them give up many of the proposed returns posted on this board.

[AZTwin]

If the dodgers are that high on De Leon than let's not have him included. Let's let the dodgers keep him and go for Bellinger and Alvarez. You can't just look at WAR. In the knoblauch Yankees trade the twins got more WAR out of the deal but it was considered a win by the Yankees because they got the World Series. They would take the trade 100 out of 100 times if given the chance and so would the twins. If it's just even WAR then a deal isn't getting done. There is considerable value in getting the ring.

[puddle]

 

Dodger fans are delusional. They can talk about these advanced stats all they want but you can't put a price tag on a World Series ring and that's what they are passing up

I assume this was directed at me.

 

Brian Dozier would put the Dodgers about on par with the Cubs. It is no guarantee of a WS ring. The Dodgers front office has stated their desire to always balance winning today with maintaining a full cupboard of cheap talent on the farm to keep the team competitive in the future. You may think I am delusional, and that's fine, but I'm just trying to give you insight in to how the Dodgers FO typically operates.

[arm18]

My ideal trade for Dozier would be Urias, Puig, Verdugo and a project like Alvarez for Dozier, Santana, Gibson and a piece like D. Santana or Kintzler. Move Rosario back to second, where he played in the minors including AAA, have an outfield of Kepler, Buxton, Puig, Verdugo, infield of Sano, Polanco, Escobar, Rosario, 1b/dh Mauer, Vargas, Park, catcher Castro, Murphy or Garver, Starting pitching Urias, Berrios, Hughes, Santiago, Mejia or May, relief Perkins, Duffey, Light, Chargois, Melotakis. 

I also think the Twins should take advantage of two cardinals that might no longer be in their  teams plans and trade for them which would alter the pitching staff, they are Wacha and Rosenthal. Slide Wacha in three or two spot and Rosenthal in the closer role. 

That would be my ideal off season. I think most people undervalue Dozier and his contract. He is a proven player, who improves every year at very affordable salary. In the trade I propose the dodgers are sending back a potential ace in Urias, but yet to be established so not a proven player. Puig a player who has been known to be a head case but with high upside and a couple of up and down seasons, Verdugo, a good prospect but still just a prospect. And Alvarez a high end prospect who could crash and burn. They receive Dozier an established power threat, who is more than competent at 2nd base with a little speed. They get Santana, who can slide in to their rotation, who is a proven veteran that is not injury prone, and gives you at least 180 innings a year. Gibson, a bounce back candidate, who only has one good season out of 2. And a final piece for either their bullpen or bench. The major hick up I can see is salary, the appearance of no interest by the twins of Puig. Otherwise I believe it to be a fair trade for a team looking to win next year and for a team that is rebuilding.

[Oxtung]

I agree the Dodgers would be selling low on Puig, which is why, ultimately, I don't think they move him right now. The outfield is crowded, but he's 2 seasons removed from a 5.6 fWAR season and is only making $7m a year. The volatility in projecting his future performance makes it as hard for teams to want him as it is for the Dodgers to be willing to move him.

 

Yes, De Leon and Buehler are just prospects, but prospects have specific values, which are highly dependent on whichever forecast you trust. Each team surely has its own projections and so valuation can differ slightly, but I'm willing to bet the Twins and Dodgers both know that De Leon and Dozier's excess values aren't far apart.

 

That being said, small changes in the forecasts can make a big difference. If you're the Twins and you project De Leon to be worth 9 fWAR over 6 seasons and Dozier to be worth 8 over 2, that's $30m excess vs. $58m excess value. A difference in $28m excess value would necessitate you asking the Dodgers to add another top tier prospect, like Alex Verdugo, who, if you trust Fangraphs' KATOH projection, is projected to be worth 8.6 fWAR over 6 seasons, or, about $29m in excess value. If you're the Dodgers, though, and you project De Leon to be worth 13 fWAR over 6 seasons and Dozier to be worth 6 over 2, that's $44.8m in excess value vs. $41m in excess value, which, you could see, would make them hesitant to give up anything more than De Leon alone. Yes, there is risk in prospects, but that risk is factored in to the forecasts.

 

For this reason, I can understand why the Twins are asking for more than the Dodgers are willing to give up. I can also understand why the Dodgers are reluctant to give up a whole lot more than JDL. I do think the deal ultimately gets done with a package like JDL+Toles+Heredia or something along those lines, but expecting SEVERAL top tier prospects in return is just not going to happen. I don't have access to the Dodgers' proprietary data, obviously, but I know how Friedman/Zaidi think and how they evaluate trade options. I guarantee they're doing valuations similarly to how I am. It would shock me to see them give up many of the proposed returns posted on this board.

There is just no way the Twins can do a deal anywhere close to JDL +Toles+Heredia. Even if The Twins braintrust agreed with your analysis and think that was an appropriate prospect return they still couldn't do the deal. The fan base would be outraged and the pressure on JDL would be immense to pitch like an Ace out of the gate because there is nothing else in that trade of any real value. After JDL inevitably fails to pitch like Johan Santana, Falvey and Levine's heads would be sure to follow shortly there after. The amount of risk in that deal makes it impossible to complete.

 

If that truly is how LAs FO views things than there just isn't a deal to be made and it explains why things are stagnated.

[shs_59]

Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler , Jose De Leon, Paul De Jong, Brock Stewart, Jacob Raihme.

 the first 3 names are the clear cutt best 3.

 

Cody Bellinger -(only other untouchable besides Urias)

Willie Calhoun

Alex Verdugo

*Gap*

Gavin Lux     -(who can't be traded yet, anyway)

Omar Estevez

Austin Barnes

Diaz

 

 

[olivia11]

1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable?  Urias
2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling?  Alvarez/De Leon, Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield, Stripling
3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo?  Bellinger, Verdugo, Diaz, Calhoun, Lux
4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke?  Thompson and Toles
5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like?  Mitch White and Jacob Rhame
6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list?  Calhoun, Puig
7) What is your minimum acceptable trade?  De Leon and one of Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield, Stirpling
8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)? De Leon, Bellinger, one of Buehler or Stewart
9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day?  Yes, absolutely.  His value will never be higher and Twins need to get De Leon while he's still available. 
10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018? 4.5, 3.5
11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017?  19