Baseball America's Top 10 Twins Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

We all know that it is Mike Berardino that does the Twins Top 30 list. The Top 10 prospect list is now available online. Take a look at what was written. Here is his Top 10:

 

 

1.) Byron Buxton

2.) JO Berrios

3.) Max Kepler

4.) Nick Gordon

5.) Tyler Jay

6.) Jorge Polanco

7.) Byung Ho Park

8.) Kohl Stewart

9.) Stephen Gonsalves

10.) Nick Burdi

 

What do you think? Have at it? As lots of questions so Mike can see this and prepare for his Baseball America chat at noon today!

[Mike Sixel]

How nervous should I be that Park, who has faced AA quality players maybe, is only 7th, but is slated to be the DH?

 

Is the Burdi ranking based on value of RP, or is he that far from MLB?

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 2:28 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How nervous should I be that Park, who has faced AA quality players maybe, is only 7th, but is slated to be the DH?

 

Is the Burdi ranking based on value of RP, or is he that far from MLB?

 

Good questions... I have Park 5 and Burdi 7. And, I'm typically one to rank relievers lower than most. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rank Berrios higher, he has more certainty to me. But I get it.

[markos]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 2:28 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How nervous should I be that Park, who has faced AA quality players maybe, is only 7th, but is slated to be the DH?

 

Is the Burdi ranking based on value of RP, or is he that far from MLB?

Also surprised by the Park rating. Kind of expected him to be #4 or so. 

[South Dakota Tom]

I think those are the right questions for Berardino, and I have no heartburn about his rankings.   How much is the ranking influenced by 1) importance of position; 2) proximity to the majors; 3) projection of the player as a future star/regular/contributor?

 

Specifically, we've seen Polanco ranked highly for awhile, yet his defense is typically considered inadequate and his offense is not sufficient to move out of the middle infield.   How do you project him, other than a utility player until Dozier is traded or fades, or is Polanco the trade chip?   If he's not MLB-ready on both offense and defense, why is he ranked so highly?

 

And the standard question:  who would you put "just outside" the top 10?

[BoomBoom]

Buxton in 4 minor league seasons totaled 108 XBH in 276 games (.39 / pg)
80 of his XBH are doubles and triples / 28 home runs / & .78 runs / pg
33% of hits are XBHs

Kepler in 6 minor league seasons totaled 163 XBH in 427 games (.38 / pg)
129 of his XBH are doubles and triples / 34 home runs / & .59 runs / pg
36% of hits are XBHs

Rosario in 6 minor league seasons totaled 194 XBH in 450 games (.43 / PG)
134 of his XBH are doubles and triples / 60 home runs / & .67 runs / pg
36% of hits are XBHs

Walker in 4 minor league seasons totaled 200 XBH in 452 games (.44 / pg)
103 of his XBH are doubles and triples / 97 home runs / & .61 runs / pg
45%% of hits are XBHs

 

Amazing he doesn't make the list.  Not to mention 4 championships in 4 years.  

[drjim]

I would have Park 5th, but otherwise agree with the list.

 

Burdi is probably 10 because of RP discount. They remain stubborn with Stewart.

[gunnarthor]

I think if your opening day DH is your 7th best prospect, that's a pretty good system.  

I'm more interested to see Mayo/Callis' rankings at mlb.com but this isn't a horrible ranking.  I'd have Kepler behind Park, Jay and Gordon and probably put Burdi 8th.  I really like him.  Nice system.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not surprised by Park, only because how to evaluate him is pretty gray. He's not a typical prospect as he's 29, from Korea and most importantly he is assumed to play DH which is going to be a drawback. Of course the only reason he is playing DH instead of 1B is because the Twins already have someone there. I'd still have him 4th but only because the three ahead look pretty special. Also, the Twins only have him for four years as opposed to the six+ for all of the other guys.

 

I also like Gonsalves more than Stewart and Jay at this point. I'll probably like Jay more after we actually see him start. Start and still miss bats that is.

 

[Bob Sacamento]

Apparently they are still high on Stewart and believe that pitch sequencing is his problem for low Ks.  BA thinks he is going to start in AA next year.

 

ABWII has got to be #11, getting squeezed out by the Park addition.  The power is great but the contact is suspect

[Seth Stohs]

I like trying to compare other lists to mine, just to see where there might be some differences. Mine is:

 

1.) Buxton

2.) Berrios

3.) Kepler

4.) Gordon

5.) Park

6.) Gonsalves

7.) Burdi

8.) Polanco

9.) Jay

10.) Walker

 

Just missed where guys like Chargois and Stewart.

[Seth Stohs]

Berardino is now answering questions at Baseball America. Click here to send your questions or watch the chat. 

[nicksaviking]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 6:02 PM, Seth Stohs said:

I like trying to compare other lists to mine, just to see where there might be some differences. Mine is:

 

1.) Buxton

2.) Berrios

3.) Kepler

4.) Gordon

5.) Park

6.) Gonsalves

7.) Burdi

8.) Polanco

9.) Jay

10.) Walker

 

Just missed where guys like Chargois and Stewart.

 

I like this one better. I still like Thorpe in the top 10 though and would push Walker out for him.

[h2oface]

The fall of Alex Meyer. Stewart still rated just because he was a high draft pick. Hasn't Park signed a major league contract? If so, how does that make him a prospect? And is Buxton trying to set a record for how long he can be on the top prospects' lists?

[nicksaviking]

Hmm, I recognize this name from Berardin's chat:

 

Mike Sixel (MN): Should I be worried that the Twins' starting DH isn't much of a prospect, or is that ranking not a ceiling one, but about control and other things? Or, are the other 6 so awesome that their starting DH can be ranked that low?

Mike Berardino: Park turns 30 in July. He's relatively untested coming from the KBO. Many factors. I actually had him a little lower originally but the BA guys wanted to move him up.

 

Interesting. A: Berardino does not appear to have final say over the list and B: He's much more skeptical than most of Park.

[Thrylos]

Given that only the following would satisfy my criteria:

 

2.) JO Berrios
4.) Nick Gordon
5.) Tyler Jay
8.) Kohl Stewart
9.) Stephen Gonsalves
10.) Nick Burdi

 

I'd say Gordon and Stewart are way too high.  

 

Stewart has re-invented himself as a pitch to contact guy.  Even Nic_ Blac_burn had a higher K% rate in AA in 2006 than Stewart did in A+ last season (14.3 vs 12.8%).  Sorry, if you are striking out as many as Blackburn, you should not be that high in that list. 

 

Gordon second season in a row under .700 OPS, second season in a row under .970 fielding percentage, not sure if his focus is baseball or celebrity; the only thing I hear about this guy is a. excuses about his performance ("started cold", "had a bad month", etc) b. how much potential he has and c. bloodlines.  Speed was supposed to be a virtue:  He stole 25 bases (75% success rate) in 535 PAs.  This is right at Daniel Palka (24 SB, 77% success, 575 PAs) vs Ben Revere (44 SB, 77% success, 374 PAs in Midwest League in 2008) 

 

Even trying to think where Park might rank in this list is kind of a silly exercise because he is not a prospect.  He is a guy with a major league job and a 4-5 year major league contract.

 

Mike's list seems to want to be a potential and stuff vs actual results and injury proneness list, but if you go that way and include players who, you got to have Alex Meyer pretty close to the top, for the same reason you got Buxton up there...  Meyer has the best stuff by far in the organization, but last year he had issues (which cost the AAA pitching coach his job, and hopefully will be fixed with a new coach.)  Buxton cannot hit the curve and has hard time not hurting himself.  Something gotta give ranking those guys that far apart.  I don't care what approach one is using, if it is consistent.  And Mike's is not.

[Bob Sacamento]

Well I got 4 questions answered (3 as self, 1 as "Nolasco") but he left off whether he thought it was Stewart's boom or bust year in 2016.  Personally, if there's no improvement on K or BB rate, he's legit prospect status has to drop

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 7:33 PM, nicksaviking said:

Mike Berardino: Park turns 30 in July. He's relatively untested coming from the KBO. Many factors. I actually had him a little lower originally but the BA guys wanted to move him up.

 

I wonder why the BA guys don't just make the list themselves?  I mean, I like Berardino, but he's an MLB beat writer.  I get that whoever ultimately compiles the list will not have done all the scouting, but given the requirements of Berardino's main job, it seems like he would have personally done even less scouting than other prospect hounds.  Does Berardino have to conform his list to the BA Top 100 too?

[James Richter]

Reading the chat answers I thought his appraisals of Burdi and Chargois were pretty interesting - particularly that he thought the latter could be in the Majors by May 1. If the Twins' evaluators are on the same page, it could explain a lot about their complacency with respect to FA bullpen additions.

 

Also comforting to read that he still sees hope for Meyer in the rotation eventually. And about Stewart: "The pitches still grade out as having plus potential across the board. The declining K/9 rate is troubling, but the Twins were pleased with the way Stewart stayed healthy after an early hiccup in 2015. He pounds the zone with that sinker and gets lots of weak contact early in the count."

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 7:15 PM, h2oface said:

The fall of Alex Meyer. Stewart still rated just because he was a high draft pick. Hasn't Park signed a major league contract? If so, how does that make him a prospect? And is Buxton trying to set a record for how long he can be on the top prospects' lists?

 

Prospect - by Baseball America's, MLB's, my, etc definition - is someone who is still eligible to be rookie of the year. If it was Major League contract, then no one could win the award. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, and now Walker will all be signing MLB contracts (they'll likely all be split contracts, but still...)... 

 

If so, Buxton is probably now tied with Mauer, who I believe was #1 Twins prospect in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Mauer was also the #1 prospect in all of baseball two years in a row.

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 8:04 PM, spycake said:

I wonder why the BA guys don't just make the list themselves?  I mean, I like Berardino, but he's an MLB beat writer.  I get that whoever ultimately compiles the list will not have done all the scouting, but given the requirements of Berardino's main job, it seems like he would have personally done even less scouting than other prospect hounds.  Does Berardino have to conform his list to the BA Top 100 too?

 

I think that Mike does a ton of work for this ranking. In fact, I know he does. He is talking to a lot of people. I was surprised by that response too, but I think like 99% of it and the writing is Mike's. 

 

The team rankings haven't always 'conformed' to the Top 100. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 7:39 PM, Thrylos said:

Given that only the following would satisfy my criteria:

 

2.) JO Berrios
4.) Nick Gordon
5.) Tyler Jay
8.) Kohl Stewart
9.) Stephen Gonsalves
10.) Nick Burdi

 

I'd say Gordon and Stewart are way too high.  

 

Stewart has re-invented himself as a pitch to contact guy.  Even Nic_ Blac_burn had a higher K% rate in AA in 2006 than Stewart did in A+ last season (14.3 vs 12.8%).  Sorry, if you are striking out as many as Blackburn, you should not be that high in that list. 

 

Gordon second season in a row under .700 OPS, second season in a row under .970 fielding percentage, not sure if his focus is baseball or celebrity; the only thing I hear about this guy is a. excuses about his performance ("started cold", "had a bad month", etc) b. how much potential he has and c. bloodlines.  Speed was supposed to be a virtue:  He stole 25 bases (75% success rate) in 535 PAs.  This is right at Daniel Palka (24 SB, 77% success, 575 PAs) vs Ben Revere (44 SB, 77% success, 374 PAs in Midwest League in 2008) 

 

Even trying to think where Park might rank in this list is kind of a silly exercise because he is not a prospect.  He is a guy with a major league job and a 4-5 year major league contract.

 

Mike's list seems to want to be a potential and stuff vs actual results and injury proneness list, but if you go that way and include players who, you got to have Alex Meyer pretty close to the top, for the same reason you got Buxton up there...  Meyer has the best stuff by far in the organization, but last year he had issues (which cost the AAA pitching coach his job, and hopefully will be fixed with a new coach.)  Buxton cannot hit the curve and has hard time not hurting himself.  Something gotta give ranking those guys that far apart.  I don't care what approach one is using, if it is consistent.  And Mike's is not.

 

I disagree with so much of this, but to the first half of the first sentence of the last paragraph (Mike's list seems to want to be a potential and stuff vs actual results)... Yes, that's what prospect rankings do. It has very little to do with stats and numbers and much more to do with upside, potential and stuff.

[Sam Morley]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 2:28 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How nervous should I be that Park, who has faced AA quality players maybe, is only 7th, but is slated to be the DH?

 

Is the Burdi ranking based on value of RP, or is he that far from MLB?

 

I agree. And I think he should start at AA, just like the last 29 year old DH we signed from an independent league- Chris Collabello. 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 8:38 PM, James Richter said:

 The declining K/9 rate is troubling, but the Twins were pleased with the way Stewart stayed healthy after an early hiccup in 2015. He pounds the zone with that sinker and gets lots of weak contact early in the count."

 

I think Berardino does a pretty good job in all he does for what it's worth.

 

However this indicates that at least in part, Berardino's ranking is influenced by what the Twins say about players. There's nothing inherently wrong with that but could certainly lead to league-wide inconsistency. Say the Astros had a clone of Stewart in their system and said that they WERE concerned about the plummeting K/9 despite his ability to be healthy. The identical players would be ranked differently simply because the Twins care less about strikeouts than the Astros do. Hypothetically.

 

Also, I have so come to detest the sinker; stop pounding the zone with a pitch that gets weak contact and start pounding the zone with a pitch that gets no contact.

[markos]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 7:39 PM, Thrylos said:

Even trying to think where Park might rank in this list is kind of a silly exercise because he is not a prospect.  He is a guy with a major league job and a 4-5 year major league contract.

I don't think it is a silly exercise at all. I don't have good insight into how Park is perceived around the league, so this is another data point for setting my expectations into how he will adjust and perform in the big leagues. And I think that having him at #7 is meaningful for two reasons:

1) Most of the other top international players that have come over (Darvish, Tanaka, Abreu, Ryu, Puig, et. al) have all been top-50 overall prospects from BA, and usually one of the best, if not the best, prospect in a team's system. That Park is #7 in the Twins top-10 certainly seems to indicate that Berardino (or the people he talked with) didn't think too highly of him relative to other big-name international signings. 

2) I am much more familiar with these Twins prospects, so ranking Park next to them gives me another comparison point. Now it is difficult to figure out exactly what balance of value/potential/ceilling/floor/tools/stats Berardino used when ranking this, but just based on who Park is near, I would guess that Berardino (or the people he's talking with) is expecting Park to be a average-regular at best, with limited upside.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 9:33 PM, nicksaviking said:

I think Berardino does a pretty good job in all he does for what it's worth.

 

However this indicates that at least in part, Berardino's ranking is influenced by what the Twins say about players. There's nothing inherently wrong with that but could certainly lead to league-wide inconsistency. Say the Astros had a clone of Stewart in their system and said that they WERE concerned about the plummeting K/9 despite his ability to be healthy. The identical players would be ranked differently simply because the Twins care less about strikeouts than the Astros do. Hypothetically.

 

Also, I have so come to detest the sinker; stop pounding the zone with a pitch that gets weak contact and start pounding the zone with a pitch that gets no contact.

 

From what I can tell, every ranking is influenced by the teams and scouts and many people.....so, I'm not sure (over every player) it doesn't wash out (though maybe not for an individual player).

[Thrylos]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 8:45 PM, Seth Stohs said:

I disagree with so much of this, but to the first half of the first sentence of the last paragraph (Mike's list seems to want to be a potential and stuff vs actual results)... Yes, that's what prospect rankings do. It has very little to do with stats and numbers and much more to do with upside, potential and stuff.

 

So, if that were the case, why is not the pitcher with the highest upside, potential and stuff in the list?

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 8:38 PM, James Richter said:

Reading the chat answers I thought his appraisals of Burdi and Chargois were pretty interesting - particularly that he thought the latter could be in the Majors by May 1. If the Twins' evaluators are on the same page, it could explain a lot about their complacency with respect to FA bullpen additions.

 

There is a lot of confidence on Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis and Rogers all being ready by May 1st.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 9:40 PM, markos said:

but just based on who Park is near, I would guess that Berardino (or the people he's talking with) is expecting Park to be a average-regular at best, with limited upside.

Scout I talked to who saw him in person comped him to Mitch Moreland, which would be good value.  ZiPs projections has Park with a line of .266/.333/.463/.796 with 27 HRs and good for 2.3 WAR - they comped him with Richie Sexson...  If he's anything close to either one of those two, then the Twins got a steal financially speaking.