Berrios and the 40 Man Jam

[Platoon]

An interesting piece by Bernadino regarding Berrios, the 40 man roster, and the names of those who have to be put on that list or become rule 5 eligible. I am by no means conversant in roster maneuverings, but this could be one of the issues holding him back? The pertinent part is about a 1/3 of the way into the article.

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/09/01/twinsights-twins-havent-ruled-out-a-promotion-for-jose-berrios/

[DaveW]

That shouldn't be an issue and it sounds like more convienant excuses. The rule 5 thing is overblown, eventually berrios is going to have to take SOMEONES spot on the 40 man roster, and at that point the 41st guy will either be exposed to waivers or the rule 5 draft. Not only is berrios one of the best 40 in the org, he is one of the bet 25 ready to help the team now, and arguably one of the best 5 overall pitchers the Twins could count on the rest of the season.

 

If calling him up now means there is a 5% chance we lose someone like Levi Michael in the rule 5 draft, I say take that chance all day!

[stringer bell]

"Eventually" wouldn't be until whenever he debuts in 2016 (if it comes to that). IIRC, they wouldn't have to protect him at all if he doesn't debut this fall.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From the article:

 

  Quote

 

Rogers, Walker, Melotakis, Jorge, Jones, Chargois, Vielma and Harrison figure to have the highest priority

 

That's 8 guys you'd even think about protecting right now.

 

With the 60-day DL, we've got 42 guys on our 40-man at the moment.  5 of them will be FA and automatically removed after the season, 3 more are strong non-tender candidates who could be brought back on nonroster invites (Fien, Nunez, and Robinson), and at least two more can and should be dropped at anytime (Thompson and Fryer).

 

That gets you to 40, so all you have to do to find a spot for Berrios is decide one of those 8 above are not worth protecting (Jorge hasn't even pitched in high-A yet, Vielma hasn't appeared above high-A, Melotakis has apparently been injured all of 2015, Jones and Chargois are both walking 6 per 9 at AA while they are league average age, and we know about the flaws and slumps of Walker and Harrison).  And/or decide to drop a guy like Achter, Darnell, or Pinto, all of whom will be 27 next year and are way down the pecking order (or Tonkin who will be 26 and out of options next spring).

 

Upon closer inspection, probably several of those 8 will not require protection, leaving us room to sign an additional MLB FA or two too (or acquire 1-2 MLB players in trade) as needed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Shorter version: plenty of room 40-man wise to see if Berrios can help us in 2015.

[USAFChief]

"Don't sell the farm" in July becomes " the 40 man is too crowded" in September.

 

Gosh, it's surprising someone couldn't have seen this coming.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Terry probably thinks he has a tough decision on his hands. I hope he comes to a decision, whatever it may be. It's interesting to read that Berrios leads all pitchers in strikeouts in all of the minor leagues, however. Not many pitchers would get the opportunity to do that like Berrios has.

[Badsmerf]

This is seriously an issue? Finding a spot on the ****ing 40 man for one of the best pitching prospects in baseball? Incredulous. I really can't get behind any of the decisions Terry Ryan makes at the major league level. Berry is in AAA right now is ridiculous in its own right.

[Shane Wahl]

I just about had a stroke reading this:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/09/01/twinsights-twins-havent-ruled-out-a-promotion-for-jose-berrios/

 

 

That Terry Ryan worries about the 40-man in November with regard to calling up Berrios right now (or awhile ago) is simply beyond my comprehension.

 

Berardino does a nice job of listing the players under consideration for addition to the 40-man roster to avoid being plucked in the rule 5. They are:

 

Taylor Rogers, Adam Walker, Mason Melotakis, Felix Jorge, Zach Jones, J.T. Chargois, Engelb Vielma, Travis Harrison, Levi Michael, Luke Bard, Corey Williams, Brett Lee, Alex Wimmers, Cole Johnson, Dereck Rodriguez, Alex Muren, D.J. Baxendale, Tim Shibuya, and Randy Rosario.

 

19 guys. That is a lot.

 

I will submit, however, that no one is going to try to take Luke Bard, Dereck Rodriguez, Randy Rosario, Felix Jorge or Alex Muren because they are not close to ready to be involved on any major league roster. Only Muren has even touched AA, and that hasn't gone well. Tim Shibuya is not ready either. There are four guys in Johnson, Baxendale, Lee, and Wimmers who are pretty borderline--that is on the border of being either totally expendable or very not likely to be selected in the rule 5. But let's just say that those 13 players are left and the Twins have to magically add them to 40-man roster.

 

Here are some current 40-man Twins who are just highly likely to be elsewhere in baseball next season:

 

Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Thompson, Eric Fryer, and Shane Robinson. That's six.

 

Here are some more who are likely to be elsewhere in baseball next season:

 

A.J. Achter, Casey Fien, Tommy Milone, and Eduardo Nunez. That's four more.

 

And then there's Torii Hunter. Who would be crazy to not retire.

 

There's 11 guys, easily removable. This doesn't include Logan Darnell, who could sign somewhere else (probably should!). This doesn't include the Arcia-Vargas-Pinto group, which almost has to be reduced by one or even two somehow. And that doesn't include Trevor Plouffe, who should be traded in my view (though for a catcher, who would hopefully join the Twins--and thus Chris Herrmann would be removed).

 

This is clearly not a situation where the Twins really have 6-8 potential spots only, with 10 or more needed additions. So what in the hell is Terry Ryan talking about? How does any of this weigh in *at all* with regard to adding Berrios right now?

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be fair, Berardino narrows it down to 8, but even among those 8, only Rogers seems a likely Rule 5 pick this winter. There is no upcoming 40-man crunch, certainly none that should affect talent like Berrios (as it did not affect Buxton a few months ago).

[Halsey Hall]

I wouldn't bring him up at the expense of losing one of those other guys.

However, the front office may feel he deserves a reward for a good season. So is the reward worth almost certainly losing another player?

I don't think so, and Berrios wouldn't help the team anyway.  Not in relief and probably not starting either. I'd give him a verbal reward, let him know he's in the mix for a starting rotation job next year and tell him I just don't want to lose one of those other players.  Everyone is better off that way. He's a smart kid, he'll understand.

[Seth Stohs]

They have some tough 40 man decisions, but they can still make tough decisions if they want to get him up here. 

 

I was looking and only 5 of those guys do I think they would lose if left unprotected... Rogers, Zack Jones, JT Chargois, AB Walker and Engelb Vielma. 

 

And that happens in November, after 8-10 players come off the roster.

[Mike Sixel]

If Berrios can't help, this team is in trouble in the long run. I doubt more that 10 people on the planet think that is true today.

[Shane Wahl]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 4:22 PM, Halsey Hall said:

I wouldn't bring him up at the expense of losing one of those other guys.

However, the front office may feel he deserves a reward for a good season. So is the reward worth almost certainly losing another player?

I don't think so, and Berrios wouldn't help the team anyway.  Not in relief and probably not starting either. I'd give him a verbal reward, let him know he's in the mix for a starting rotation job next year and tell him I just don't want to lose one of those other players.  Everyone is better off that way. He's a smart kid, he'll understand.

What? They wouldn't just lose one immediately! I don't understand this post.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 4:33 PM, mike wants wins said:

If Berrios can't help, this team is in trouble in the long run. I doubt more that 10 people on the planet think that is true today.

 

At this point with his innings building up I wouldn't call him up unless you could guarantee him at least 4 starts this month.  IMO it would be dumb to burn an option to have him throw a handful of innings out of the pen, especially since the pen has been much better in the last month or so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 9/2/2015 at 5:22 PM, SwainZag said:

At this point with his innings building up I wouldn't call him up unless you could guarantee him at least 4 starts this month. IMO it would be dumb to burn an option to have him throw a handful of innings out of the pen, especially since the pen has been much better in the last month or so.

FYI, calling up Berrios now wouldn't burn an option year in 2015. You only use an option year when you get sent down.

 

Once added, he would have to be optioned in 2016, but presumably they will be willing to do that anyway. I doubt they are concerned about having an option year available for him in 2019 (although they might if he missed time to injury anyway).

[SwainZag]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 5:34 PM, spycake said:

FYI, calling up Berrios now wouldn't burn an option year in 2015. You only use an option year when you get sent down.

Once added, he would have to be optioned in 2016, but presumably they will be willing to do that anyway. I doubt they are concerned about having an option year available for him in 2019 (although they might if he missed time to injury anyway).

 

Ah, thanks. I should have said started the clock early instead of using a option.  

[Mike Sixel]

We won't agree on how dumb it is, nor do the guys at Fangraphs agree with you. Worrying about 2022 when you are in the playoff hunt now, that is dumb, imo. No place in this post am I saying trade anyone away here.....I'm saying call up maybe your best pitcher, and have him pitch.

[zenser]

Don't forget we will need a spot on the 40 and 25 man roster next year for the rule 5 guy we will pick up to help out the bullpen.

[Shane Wahl]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 3:45 PM, Shane Wahl said:

I just about had a stroke reading this:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/09/01/twinsights-twins-havent-ruled-out-a-promotion-for-jose-berrios/

 

 

That Terry Ryan worries about the 40-man in November with regard to calling up Berrios right now (or awhile ago) is simply beyond my comprehension.

 

Berardino does a nice job of listing the players under consideration for addition to the 40-man roster to avoid being plucked in the rule 5. They are:

 

Taylor Rogers, Adam Walker, Mason Melotakis, Felix Jorge, Zach Jones, J.T. Chargois, Engelb Vielma, Travis Harrison, Levi Michael, Luke Bard, Corey Williams, Brett Lee, Alex Wimmers, Cole Johnson, Dereck Rodriguez, Alex Muren, D.J. Baxendale, Tim Shibuya, and Randy Rosario.

 

19 guys. That is a lot.

 

I will submit, however, that no one is going to try to take Luke Bard, Dereck Rodriguez, Randy Rosario, Felix Jorge or Alex Muren because they are not close to ready to be involved on any major league roster. Only Muren has even touched AA, and that hasn't gone well. Tim Shibuya is not ready either. There are four guys in Johnson, Baxendale, Lee, and Wimmers who are pretty borderline--that is on the border of being either totally expendable or very not likely to be selected in the rule 5. But let's just say that those 13 players are left and the Twins have to magically add them to 40-man roster.

 

Here are some current 40-man Twins who are just highly likely to be elsewhere in baseball next season:

 

Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Thompson, Eric Fryer, and Shane Robinson. That's six.

 

Here are some more who are likely to be elsewhere in baseball next season:

 

A.J. Achter, Casey Fien, Tommy Milone, and Eduardo Nunez. That's four more.

 

And then there's Torii Hunter. Who would be crazy to not retire.

 

There's 11 guys, easily removable. This doesn't include Logan Darnell, who could sign somewhere else (probably should!). This doesn't include the Arcia-Vargas-Pinto group, which almost has to be reduced by one or even two somehow. And that doesn't include Trevor Plouffe, who should be traded in my view (though for a catcher, who would hopefully join the Twins--and thus Chris Herrmann would be removed).

 

This is clearly not a situation where the Twins really have 6-8 potential spots only, with 10 or more needed additions. So what in the hell is Terry Ryan talking about? How does any of this weigh in *at all* with regard to adding Berrios right now?

Is something unclear in what I wrote here?

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 9/2/2015 at 5:39 PM, SwainZag said:

Ah, thanks. I should have said started the clock early instead of using a option.

Yes, it would start the clock, but that clock can also be paused with options. They could look at him for 2 weeks, then option him back down if it doesn't look like he will help. They are so close to the end of the season, he won't spend 20 days on optional assignment so he won't burn an option this year, so it will only cost them ~14 days service time and a 40-man spot to see if he can help. Pretty minimal cost, his chances of contributing don't have to be that great to make it worthwhile.

[stringer bell]

 

I would edit Mike's comment like this: If Berrios can't help the team in the long run, the Twins are in trouble. He's 21 and pitched more professional innings than he ever has. He might or might not be able to help this year. If he busts, the Twins really don't have many high-quality options in the next couple years, when the lineup should be much improved.

If Berrios can't help, this team is in trouble in the long run. I doubt more that 10 people on the planet think that is true today.

 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

I'll put the issue this way: There is a greater cost to recalling Berrios than there would be to recalling any other pitcher even remotely under consideration. Losing a player off the 40-man tomorrow or next week could end up costing the Twins a fairly valuable piece. Starting JO's clock is a lesser consideration. They will add more than current farmhards to the 40-man over the winter.

 

Having said all of the above, the issue is really, can Berrios help enough to be more than just another guy called up when the rosters expand. I don't think the Twins are convinced that is the case and we wouldn't know until he came on the big stage. Look at the top two prospects, one (the lower rated one) is playing like an MVP and the crown jewel of the minor league system is playing like what he is (an inexperiencd 22-year-old) despite impressive physical tools.

[Blackjack]

Whether you like the decision or not to bring Berrios up I thought it was a good piece by Bernadino outlining some of the factors in the decision.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Losing Aaron Thompson off the 40 man roster will not hurt in the least. I am flabbergasted that people keep suggesting this.

 

Seeing if one of the best prospects in the game, dominating at the minors highest level, could contribute to an MLB pennant race would be well worth dropping Aaron Thompson a month ahead of schedule. Dude turns 29 this winter, and is apparently well down our depth chart at the moment.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the biggest issue is that he doesn't need to be added and there's no room for him in the rotation for next year.  TR is going to have to dump a few guys (not to mention making room for May if that's in the plan) to open a spot for Berrios. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 6:37 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

I think the biggest issue is that he doesn't need to be added and there's no room for him in the rotation for next year.  TR is going to have to dump a few guys (not to mention making room for May if that's in the plan) to open a spot for Berrios. 

That's fine, Berrios can be optioned to begin next season.  Most posters think he should start next year in the minors anyway.

 

Doesn't really have anything to do with seeing if he can help us in a pennant race right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Oh, and an earlier thread brought up Tyler Glasnow as a comparable. I thought I refuted that partially (and Glasnow did some refuting with a disastrous start yesterday in AAA, 5 walks with only 1 out recorded).

 

But also, Pittsburgh is 6 games behind their division leader, and 4.5 games up on the second wild card. So they have a lot less to play for in the last month than the Twins too -- adding 1-2 wins for them probably won't change their postseason odds or seeding at all. (Additionally, they already have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, so it would be much harder for Glasnow to contribute marginal wins than Berrios for the Twins).

 

The Twins, trailing a playoff spot by a game, are much more in a position of need, and their below-average staff gives them a clearer opportunity to add marginal wins by upgrading some innings.

[Hrbowski]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 3:53 PM, spycake said:

To be fair, Berardino narrows it down to 8, but even among those 8, only Rogers seems a likely Rule 5 pick this winter. There is no upcoming 40-man crunch, certainly none that should affect talent like Berrios (as it did not affect Buxton a few months ago).

A team would pick Chargios or Walker for sure.

[jimbo92107]

Shane Wahl pretty much nailed it, except to mention that EVERY TEAM has loads of young guys in their minor league systems that they think might just pan out. That's why they picked them, and that may be why Rule 5 danger is extremely overrated. It should not be used as an excuse to hold back Jose Berrios.

 

Pick a handful of guys in AAA and AA to protect, and don't worry too much about the rest. Guys in A ball are too far away to put on any team's 40-man, or too young to matter. Other teams also have to worry about their own 40-man concerns, which may be why the actual amount of Rule 5 sniping is not that great.

 

Meanwhile, no team is dumb enough to let a star talent get sniped, unless they're coming off injuries, which is how the Twins got Pressley and Graham. According to that scenario, which previously injured but talented guys would the Twins lose if they tried to sneak them past waivers? From the list of 19, I see Wimmers, Chargois, Micheal, Bard, Williams, Melotakis. Of those guys, I'd put Wimmers and Chargois on the 40. The rest aren't much better prospects than most teams already have.

 

I still think Wimmers might be really good next season.

 

The 19: Taylor Rogers, Adam Walker, Mason Melotakis, Felix Jorge, Zach Jones, J.T. Chargois, Engelb Vielma, Travis Harrison, Levi Michael, Luke Bard, Corey Williams, Brett Lee, Alex Wimmers, Cole Johnson, Dereck Rodriguez, Alex Muren, D.J. Baxendale, Tim Shibuya, and Randy Rosario.