Max Kepler is ready for AAA.

 

He is currently dominating AA pitching, to the tune of a .332/.413/.517 triple-slash line.  How good is that?  If he had enough AB's to qualify, his OPS (.930 OPS) would be the only in the Eastern League north of .900.  Despite an unsustainably high BABIP (.381), Kepler's spectacular plate-discipline suggest that he should be able to maintain this run of success: he has drawn a walk in 11.9% of plate appearances and struck out in just 13.2%, good for a BB/K ratio of .90.  In fact, since 6/1, Kepler's BB/K ratio is an even 1.0

 

All of this screams that Kepler is ready for AAA pitching.  Some might argue by claiming that, with just 73 games at AA, he simply needs more experience.  However, don't forget that Kepler has now spent 2 offseasons in the Arizona Fall League, logging a combined 36 games.  Nor did Kepler dominate in the Florida State League a season ago.  While that is true, he did display good plate discipline (8.4% BB: 15.2% K) and his lack of power and low BABIP could be attributed--at least partially--to nagging injuries.  A month in AAA now could help put Kepler on track for an early-mid season call-up next year.

 

I've always felt that Kepler has been underrated: the great plate discipline he has shown throughout his career, especially considering his lack of baseball experience relative to his appears, has made me extremely confident in his hit tool.  Regardless of whether or not Kepler spends the rest of the season in AA, he should shoot up prospect rankings this offseason.  He has appeared on Fangraph.com's weekly "Fringe 5" prospect articles 4 times since mid-June.  Take a look: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549507&position=OF.

I agree. The numbers say that Kepler should be advanced to AAA. However... the Twins Front Office may something that we don't know.  

Max is having an exceptional season.  Fangraph could not be more off with its 2015 projections for Max:

(ZiPS; Depth Charts; Steamer;).  He exceeded their projections and some.  He may be hitting only .275 in July, but he is still showing great plate discipline and deserves AAA.  Agreed!

So maybe promote him to the majors and have him play twice a week? Robinson could go away and nobody would even notice.

For the record, the Twins AA players now play in the Southern League where Kepler does have enough qualified ABs and is second in OPS.  The Southern League seems to be slightly hitter friendly, while the Eastern League was always slightly pitcher friendly.  Regardless, the main point about Kepler having a great season stands.

 

Considering that Kepler was already placed on the 40-man before the 2014 season and next year will be his final option year, I'm absolutely on board with sending him up to AAA before the end of the season.  I wouldn't worry about it too much though, the front office clearly doesn't think AAA is much more challenging than AA for most prospects.

 

Max is having an exceptional season.  Fangraph could not be more off with its 2015 projections for Max:

(ZiPS; Depth Charts; Steamer;).  He exceeded their projections and some.  He may be hitting only .275 in July, but he is still showing great plate discipline and deserves AAA.  Agreed!

 

These project what the player would be expected do in the major leagues this year, so they tend to be--understandably--quite low on guys who haven't made it out of A-ball yet.  Kepler will probably look pretty good according to these projections next year, and I would expect that he will be a top-100 prospect on most pre-season lists.

Kepler has 4 option years, so he could be optioned in 2017 too.

 

For the record, the Twins AA players now play in the Southern League where Kepler does have enough qualified ABs and is second in OPS.  The Southern League seems to be slightly hitter friendly, while the Eastern League was always slightly pitcher friendly.  Regardless, the main point about Kepler having a great season stands.

 

Considering that Kepler was already placed on the 40-man before the 2014 season and next year will be his final option year, I'm absolutely on board with sending him up to AAA before the end of the season.  I wouldn't worry about it too much though, the front office clearly doesn't think AAA is much more challenging than AA for most prospects.

 

Next year is not his final option year.  He's one of those guys who gets 4 options based on how he progressed. 

 

That said, I do agree with the premise that he needs to move up. 

 

Max is having an exceptional season.  Fangraph could not be more off with its 2015 projections for Max:

(ZiPS; Depth Charts; Steamer;).  He exceeded their projections and some.  He may be hitting only .275 in July, but he is still showing great plate discipline and deserves AAA.  Agreed!

Steamer and Depth charts projected every player on the 40 man (and maybe more) as to what they would do if they played in the majors this season.  Notice the games played stat for Kepler on depth charts and steamer?  Each say ONE game.You don't think they projected him to play one game in the minors, do you?

 

They didn't project his minor league numbers.  Not sure where you found his ZiPS projection, but Dan S (the creator of ZiPS) said that his projections are for what player is projected to do if he made the majors.  When you see one game on a projection, tells you he thought there was zero chance he'd make the majors, but it also says he isn't projecting minor league numbers.

Edited July 25, 201511 yr by jimmer

Steamer and Depth charts projected every player on the 40 man as to what they would do if they played in the majors this season.  Notice the games played stat of depth charts and steamer?  Each say ONE game. They didn't project his minor league numbers.  Not sure where you found his ZiPS projection.

Yeah, to my mind that's a fairly favorable projection offered by Steamer. Based on a so-so high-A 2014 season with a BA of .264, they have him batting .236 if they had promoted him straight to the majors. Not numbers worthy of being kept in the majors, but would not totally embarrass himself had that been the alternate reality, and last winter nobody was proposing to jump him straight to there.

 

Next year's projection should be even more favorable, given the good AA results in 2015 at age 22.

Before his injury, Dalton Hicks was the regular 1B in AA and is about ready to return. I'd think Kepler or Vargas would go to AAA and Vargas certainly doesn't seem to be asking for a promotion.

Yes, there needs to be a test for Kepler after this domination. Hicks should have gotten one (though he clearly wasn't this dominant in 2012 in AA). AAA promotion should happen immediately.

 

These project what the player would be expected do in the major leagues this year, so they tend to be--understandably--quite low on guys who haven't made it out of A-ball yet.  Kepler will probably look pretty good according to these projections next year, and I would expect that he will be a top-100 prospect on most pre-season lists.

I hit projections once I got to the fangraph link for Kepler.  The ZiPS gave me an 100 game guesstimate.  I still didn't realize it was for MLB projections though.  Thanks.

 

Based on his 100 game guesstimates off of 2014 - I would agree that 2016 guesstimates should be excellent.

 

I agree. The numbers say that Kepler should be advanced to AAA. However... the Twins Front Office may something that we don't know.  

Not possible.  We have computers and the internet, therefore we know all.

When Plouffe goes on paternity leave, Kepler could debut. He would only be with the club for 2-3 days, but he could play RF while Hunter is the DH and Sano plays 3rd. It wouldn't be a lot, but it would be a nice little reward for his season at AA. Afterwards, they can send him to AAA and tell him if he has a nice month he'll be back in September.

 

Not possible.  We have computers and the internet, therefore we know all.

Well, it would be hard to debate hypothetical/theoretical info unable to us that most certainly tells us a completely different story than the info available to us.  I guess we could just assume all the info available to them and not us tells the right story, that they follow the info, and that they always make the right decisions. Not sure how blindly trusting the FO will work on a site like this that seems to flourish in debates, but it would be less interesting. :-)

While we are at it, we can do the same with the decisions made by the President and the rest of our government.  They have way more info than is available to us as well.:-)

Edited July 25, 201511 yr by jimmer

Question:  I don't follow ZiPS on players that closely [ ok, ok, pretty much not at all], but it seems to me that Kepler's ZiPS are being distorted by a 2015 season that seems out of character for him.  Yes?  No?

ZiPS is a projection of what he might have done if he had been in the majors.  Not at all projecting his minor league production

Given how Rosario and Hicks are playing right now, I'm fine with leaving him in Chat. or Rochester until September 1. He's been plagued by injuries for years. Let's let him play every day. If Rosario or Hicks gets injured or goes into a really bad slump, then I might change my mind. But right now both of them are on fire.

...

Edited July 26, 201511 yr by Thrylos

 

...

Kepler played last night and every game, I believe, since the 16th.  Before that, his last game was the 8th of July

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kepler001max&type=bgl&year=2015

 

Unless the Twins have internal info unavailable to us that says he didn't :-)

Edited July 26, 201511 yr by jimmer

I think people are making too much out of the difference between AA and AAA.  There isn't much reason to promote him right now.  Let him play out the final month in AA.

 

I like the idea of promoting him to the Twins for the 3 days though.

I too don't think it hurts him to stay in AA, where he's raking.  The main thing is that he plays somewhere in the OF, everyday.  Call him up for a taste in September.

 

Considering that Kepler was already placed on the 40-man before the 2014 season and next year will be his final option year, I'm absolutely on board with sending him up to AAA before the end of the season.  I wouldn't worry about it too much though, the front office clearly doesn't think AAA is much more challenging than AA for most prospects.

 

I think it's almost a certainty Kepler is granted a fourth option year, for what that's worth.

 

Edit: and I see others commented on this already, haha.

Edited July 30, 201511 yr by Steve Lein