Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[jokin]

It was announced on Monday that Cubs hitting prospect, Kyle Schwarber is being called up for a 6 game look-see at DH as the Cubs play their next 6 games in AL parks, of course including 3 this weekend at Target Field.  Reporters were assured that he is to be promoted from AA and report to AAA immediately after Sunday's game.

 

Sano has actually slightly outhit Schwarber in the Southern League since April 30, after Sano had shaken off much of the 18 month rust.  Do you think Theo Epstein's move with Schwarber might give Ryan a similar idea (especially considering that Ryan could choose to utilize the DH option as a more normal everyday position- and especially with the current gaping power hole in the middle of the batting order)?

 

Sano's numbers since April 30:

 

PA 168 Slash: .303/.396/.577/(.973) ISO .274   XBH 20 HR 9

 

Schwarber's numbers, 4/30-6/14:

 

PA 172 Slash: 295/.427/.525/(.952) ISO .230 XBH 14 HR 9

 

More immediate June numbers illustrating Sano's power surge:

 

Sano BA .300 OPS .983

Schwarber BA .300 OPS .806

 

 

Schwarber was called up by the Cubs, despite only a temporarily open position for him to play.    But like the Twins, they too are also in a pennant race.    ESPN quoted Epstein about the plan for Schwarber:

 

 

"His next stop is to continue his development as a catcher at Triple-A. First, however, he is going to join the major league team for six days to contribute as a designated hitter, as a bat off the bench and as a third catcher. He will also use the time in the big leagues to experience firsthand all that goes into being a major league catcher. Regardless of how this week goes, Kyle will head to Triple-A after Sunday's game."

 

The plan sounds very sound.

Come on Mr. Ryan.  How soon for Sano?

[tobi0040]

 

It was announced on Monday that Cubs hitting prospect, Kyle Schwarber is being called up for a 6 game look-see at DH as the Cubs play their next 6 games in AL parks, of course including 3 this weekend at Target Field.  Reporters were assured that he is to be promoted from AA and report to AAA immediately after Sunday's game.

 

Sano has actually slightly outhit Schwarber in the Southern League since April 30, after Sano had shaken off much of the 18 month rust.  Do you think Theo Epstein's move with Schwarber might give Ryan a similar idea (especially considering that Ryan could choose to utilize the DH option as a more normal everyday position- and especially with the current gaping power hole in the middle of the batting order)?

 

Sano's numbers since April 30:

 

PA 168 Slash: .303/.396/.577/(.973) ISO .274   XBH 20 HR 9

 

Schwarber's numbers, 4/30-6/14:

 

PA 172 Slash: 295/.427/.525/(.952) ISO .230 XBH 14 HR 9

 

More immediate June numbers illustrating Sano's power surge:

 

Sano BA .300 OPS .983

Schwarber BA .300 OPS .806

 

 

Schwarber was called up by the Cubs, despite only a temporarily open position for him to play.    But like the Twins, they too are also in a pennant race.    ESPN quoted Epstein about the plan for Schwarber:

 

 

The plan sounds very sound.

Come on Mr. Ryan.  How soon for Sano?

 

I like the communication by Theo.

[jokin]

I like the communication by Theo.

And. Oh. Boy. Howdy!

 

Like a different language. Epstein's a whole lot less cryptic than what we've become accustomed to in Twinsland, where they seem to have made parsing every prospect update into painful artform-

 

"What's the Keepin' em Down Buzzword and Catchphrase for Today?"

[Mike Sixel]

I am a Theo fan.....this just makes it more so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sano seems to be heating up again so he's definitely back on the radar.

 

If Sano had a spot to play right now, I'd be all over a call-up... But with third base occupied, I think the prudent move is to let Vargas play for at least a couple more weeks and then reevaluate as we head toward the break.

 

As long as the Twins are in contention, Plouffe cannot move off third. He's one of the Twins' better overall position players and right now they have to think about what's best in 2015, not 2016 and beyond. Mauer isn't going anywhere so that leaves only DH for Sano in the short-term, which means that Sano plays at the expense of Vargas. While I'm not against that idea, I believe Kennys should get a little more time to earn a legitimate shot at DH before he's demoted in favor of Miguel.

[Mike Sixel]

Why can't Mauer sit 2 times a week? Or, are they not interested in putting the best team out there?

 

2-3 days at DH, 2 at 1B, 1 at 3B......that seems like enough to help the Twins, and to get Sano ready for full time next year.....

[Dman]

 

And. Oh. Boy. Howdy!

Like a different language. Epstein's a whole lot less cryptic than what we've become accustomed to in Twinsland, where they seem to have made parsing every prospect update into painful artform-

"What's the Keepin' em Down Buzzword and Catchphrase for Today?"

 

Love your enthusiasm on Sano but I don't see it happening this early.  Comparing Sano to Buxton's call up doesn't work because Buxton's defense is better than what we had and his offense doesn't have to be that great to meet what was coming from that spot either.  Comparing Sano to Schwarber doesn't match either as Schwarber is only up to DH and then being sent down again to AAA.  We already have Vargas in that role so there technically is no need.

 

I don't think the Twins feel like they NEED Sano up this early so I doubt we will see him.  Once the Twins realize they are out of contention in July I would hope that they bring up the younger guys and see what we have as there are a lot of 40 man decisions that need to be made for next year and the year after.  They need to find out who will survive at the MLB level and who will not and at least give reps sop that we can play some of the younger guys next year without them learning on the job.

[jokin]

Love your enthusiasm on Sano but I don't see it happening this early.  Comparing Sano to Buxton's call up doesn't work because Buxton's defense is better than what we had and his offense doesn't have to be that great to meet what was coming from that spot either.  Comparing Sano to Schwarber doesn't match either as Schwarber is only up to DH and then being sent down again to AAA.  We already have Vargas in that role so there technically is no need.

 

I don't think the Twins feel like they NEED Sano up this early so I doubt we will see him.  Once the Twins realize they are out of contention in July I would hope that they bring up the younger guys and see what we have as there are a lot of 40 man decisions that need to be made for next year and the year after.  They need to find out who will survive at the MLB level and who will not and at least give reps sop that we can play some of the younger guys next year without them learning on the job.

Is Vargas the DH? Cause he sat on Sunday. And I'm proposing that the Twins start out by letting Sano DH, just like the role Schwarber is trying out.

 

What' wrong with letting Sano DH for a few games like Schwarber is? You've already raised the white flag on 2015 and made a summary judgement that the season is over by mid-July. Seems very premature, even for a glass-half-empty guy like me. And with 13 pitchers, there's actually a roster spot that can easily be occupied by him without any disruption.

 

The reality, for now anyway, is that the Twins are still in the thick of the playoff situation in a division that looks like 85 wins might get it done, and they're currently struggling for offensive production from the middle of the order. With the alternatives being Vargas and Nunez, it seems like a trial run for Sano makes a lot of sense, I don't see the downside.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And while I'm not one to yell about "TEH MONIES", it's a bit foolish to call up Sano today. If the Twins wait just a few weeks - giving Kennys a legitimate shot to be a DH solution - they pass over the Super 2 date and save an assload of money in 2019 and beyond, possibly as much as $15m.

 

That's the price of a really good player. It's not the kind of money you dismiss out of hand. In the case of Buxton, it made sense to ignore it because he's going to get over a month of service time before the deadline. In the case of Sano - who almost surely won't be called up in the next week - it could be as little as a few days.

 

And for a few days of playing time, you wait it out, particularly when you're interested in seeing what you have in Vargas.

[jokin]

And while I'm not one to yell about "TEH MONIES", it's a bit foolish to call up Sano today. If the Twins wait just a few weeks - giving Kennys a legitimate shot to be a DH solution - they pass over the Super 2 date and save an assload of money in 2019 and beyond, possibly as much as $15m.

 

That's the price of a really good player. It's not the kind of money you dismiss out of hand. In the case of Buxton, it made sense to ignore it because he's going to get over a month of service time before the deadline. In the case of Sano - who almost surely won't be called up in the next week - it could be as little as a few days.

 

And for a few days of playing time, you wait it out, particularly when you're interested in seeing what you have in Vargas.

Super 2 is already passed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Super 2 is already passed.

Not under the new rules. They changed a couple years back with the latest CBA. It's sometime around the middle of July now.

 

Also, let's not forget that the season started really late this year. April 6th was Opening Day.

[Mike Sixel]

Yup, super 2 passed last week, according to the interwebs.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not under the new rules. They changed a couple years back with the latest CBA. It's sometime around the middle of July now.

 

Might want to check fangraphs, espn.com, and cbs.com, because they all had stories that it was last week or the week before.......

[jokin]

And the Twins appear to have absolutely little confidence in Vargas at the moment. He didn't play on Sunday, and he curiously didn't get one consideration to PH last night, while Robinson and Nunez did, and he was bypassed from pinch hitting in the 9th for Suzuki, despite hitting .349 vs. LHP.

[jokin]

Might want to check fangraphs, espn.com, and cbs.com, because they all had stories that it was last week or the week before.......

The estimate was that it would be ~140 days, it's below 120 now.

 

Free Sano!

[tobi0040]

 

Super 2 is already passed.

 

I agree.     Buxton, Correa, Gallo, and Lindor all called up between 6/2 and 6/13. 

 

Pre-season, these were prospects 1, 2 ,4, and 6 by MLB.com

 

[howieramone2]

 

Why can't Mauer sit 2 times a week? Or, are they not interested in putting the best team out there?

 

2-3 days at DH, 2 at 1B, 1 at 3B......that seems like enough to help the Twins, and to get Sano ready for full time next year.....

As far as I know Sano, has not played 1B at any level. That's not putting your best team out there. Also, very few would believe sitting Mauer twice a week would improve our team long term. He's earned as long a leash as any player in baseball. It's not anywhere near time to put a fork in him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As far as I know Sano, has not played 1B at any level. That's not putting your best team out there. Also, very few would believe sitting Mauer twice a week would improve our team long term. He's earned as long a leash as any player in baseball. It's not anywhere near time to put a fork in him.

 

I don't agree, but there is no way either of us can prove our belief.....but Mauer is a bottom five 1B for some time now.

 

As for Sano at 1B, I agree, I don't get why he isn't playing RF or 1B some now. Either trade Plouffe, or get Sano time at other spots. Or, heck, put Plouffe at 1B then......

 

Either way, if they won't use Vargas as a PH, they should have Sano up.

 

 

[jokin]

As far as I know Sano, has not played 1B at any level. That's not putting your best team out there. Also, very few would believe sitting Mauer twice a week would improve our team long term. He's earned as long a leash as any player in baseball. It's not anywhere near time to put a fork in him.

But if he just sits twice a week, isn't that only putting in one or two tines of a six-tined "fork"?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Might want to check fangraphs, espn.com, and cbs.com, because they all had stories that it was last week or the week before.......

Do you have any links? I'm trying to dig it up but I'm not finding anything concrete.

 

For example, Arcia played 200 games and was projected to just miss the cutoff. Had he played 220, he would have made it.

 

We're ~70 games into the season. If Sano is called up today, he'd get roughly 230 games before the end of 2016 (removing ~20 games just to be conservative). Unless teams have gone promotion-crazy this season - a real possibility given the amount of prospects hitting the show - the date is still nebulous and may not have passed.

[Dman]

 

Is Vargas the DH? Cause he sat on Sunday. And I'm proposing that the Twins start out by letting Sano DH, just like the role Schwarber is trying out.

What' wrong with letting Sano DH for a few games like Schwarber is? You've already raised the white flag on 2015 and made a summary judgement that the season is over by mid-July. Seems very premature, even for a glass-half-empty guy like me. And with 13 pitchers, there's actually a roster spot that can easily be occupied by him without any disruption.

The reality, for now anyway, is that the Twins are still in the thick of the playoff situation in a division that looks like 85 wins might get it done, and they're currently struggling for offensive production from the middle of the order. With the alternatives being Vargas and Nunez, it seems like a trial run for Sano makes a lot of sense, I don't see the downside.

 

I see nothing wrong with your premise and personally I would like to see what Sano can do at the MLB level.  In the end though I guess I am ambivalent on the timing as I don't believe his bat can save this team.  As long as he is up no later than August I am fine waiting.  If the FO does see issues with Sano playing third I would hope they would give him experience at first and the outfield so they nullify that issue.

[jokin]

Do you have any links? I'm trying to dig it up but I'm not finding anything concrete.

 

For example, Arcia played 200 games and was projected to just miss the cutoff. Had he played 220, he would have made it.

 

We're ~70 games into the season. If Sano is called up today, he'd get roughly 230 games before the end of 2016. Unless teams have gone promotion-crazy this season - a real possibility given the amount of prospects hitting the show - the date is still nebulous and may not have passed.

They never know for certain until late September, but 140 is the number that MLBtraderumors is going with, and they've been very close over the last 6 seasons.

 

I wrote an extensive piece here on TD, with Arcia and Vargas in mind, and Correa as the example piece. Arcia was at 0.126 (122 was the lowest number over the last 6-7), holding him down in AAA last week and this week, will have all but assured with certainty that he's not going to be a Super 2 candidate based on this year's accrued service time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ah, found Cameron's article. Thanks, everybody.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/steven-matz-the-mets-and-the-super-two-rule/

 

Wow, that's really early, especially considering how late the season started in 2015.

[diehardtwinsfan]

super 2 is a percentage if I remember right, so it generally will fluctuate from year to year and you won't know the exact number till after the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

super 2 is a percentage if I remember right, so it generally will fluctuate from year to year and you won't know the exact number till after the season.

True, but if the Astros were confident enough in the date to call up Correa, that's good enough for me.

[jokin]

super 2 is a percentage if I remember right, so it generally will fluctuate from year to year and you won't know the exact number till after the season.

I encourage you to read the Cameron article. Although your facts are accurate, the stat guys at MLBTraderumors have gotten their projections down pretty close. This year is projected to be 140, and the low over the last 6 years was 122 (twice).

 

My urgency in pushing for Sano in my article was prompted in part by this compelling evidence.

 

If Correa sticks for the remainder of the season, he will accrue 119 days of service time. Cameron estimated that the chances of Correa qualifying for Super 2 status are about 0.1%. The article was published a week ago today. There is now probably better chance to win the lottery than winning Super 2 status at this point for any new call-up.

[jokin]

True, but if the Astros were confident enough in the date to call up Correa, that's good enough for me.

Yep. The team with multiple Quantitative Analysts, a physicist, a GM with advanced finance degrees from Ivy League schools, plus a former NASA scientist with a degree in aeronautical engineering, probably have a pretty good handle on the data regarding Super 2 probabilities.

[jimmer]

 

I think one big misconception here is that if the Twins continue to be in contention, that call ups of top prospects are more likely.  The reality is the opposite - 

I've heard a few supposed experts disagree with you on this.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Schwarber, like Buxton, wasn't even on the 40-man roster.

 

Sano's already on the 40-man roster, and we're already passed the Super-2 date.  The time for Vargas' MLB audition this year was April and May, and the Twins already squandered much of that with benchings and a demotion.

 

Now is the time to call up Sano and see where he's at.  He can always go back down, perhaps to AAA, if he's not yet up to the task of DH.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think one big misconception here is that if the Twins continue to be in contention, that call ups of top prospects are more likely.  The reality is the opposite - if they are still winning the Twins will go with veterans that have been in the big leagues before.

We always hear about a team "sending a message" by signing/trading for a guy.

 

I think calling up a top-rated prospect, like Buxton, Sano, or back in the day Mauer, maybe even Garza (and hopefully Meyer again and Berrios), etc. can send a similar message.  We're playing to win, now.

 

(Lesser prospects, such as Pinto, Polanco, Harrison, etc. -- I agree, they are more likely to be called upon once the team's season goals shift away from immediate contention and back to development.)