New draft thread

[gunnarthor]

The other one was getting long - so maybe time for a new one?

 

In any event, Klaw tweeted that Aiken might make his next start, although it isn't official.  I wonder if it's possible that Aiken psyched himself out a bit and over reacted to anything strange in his arm.  For the last year, he's probably had thousands of people troll his twitter or any article on him about how his arm will fall off.  In any event, if Klaw is right, it's good news for the Twins

[gunnarthor]

McDaniel had a prospect/draft chat at fangraphs - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-32415/

A few notes:

 

He said the three best college arms (counting junior college) are Tate, Matuella and, surprisingly, Bickford.  

 

He's worried about Aiken and views the silence as a bad sign.

 

Thinks Lewis Thrope will need TJ surgery.

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

The other one was getting long - so maybe time for a new one?

 

In any event, Klaw tweeted that Aiken might make his next start, although it isn't official.  I wonder if it's possible that Aiken psyched himself out a bit and over reacted to anything strange in his arm.  For the last year, he's probably had thousands of people troll his twitter or any article on him about how his arm will fall off.  In any event, if Klaw is right, it's good news for the Twins

 

Man, I hope so.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

He's worried about Aiken and views the silence as a bad sign.

 

 

Yup, can't uncry that wolf.  Even if he pitches symptom free the rest of the year, every front office will now put much more weight on the Astros original concerns, and for all we know, they were putting weight on the Astros concerns even while the fans were not.

[gunnarthor]

Duke's Matuella had a good outing this week and looks to go in the top 5 again.  That's good news for us, although he won't slide to #6, because he's making the draft a bit deeper - which is needed with injuries to Aiken and Allard.  There have been/still are questions about whether Matuella can stick as a starter or is better suited to relief but for now it looks like he can start.  He's probably more a #2 than a true ace but looks to be gone by the time we draft.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dukes-michael-matuella-returns-to-top-5-pick-form/

[Hrbowski]

I hope that we draft Kolby Allard or Dillon Tate.

[cmb0252]

BA week 6 college draft prospect stats article is up and features notesvon potential top 10 picks in Happ and Kirby:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-6-3/

[cmb0252]

Draft to the Show article on how far Aiken could fall:

 

http://www.drafttotheshow.com/brady-aiken-img-academy-injury-2015-draft/

[markos]

Chris Crawford posted his top-50 draft list on BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25886

 

He still has Aiken #1 pending injury updates. 

 

Right now I like how this draft is shaping up for the Twins. Obviously, it would be nicer if there was more talent and they were drafting higher. But it certainly seems like there isn't a huge disadvantage to be drafting #6 versus, say, #3, unlike past years (ex. 2013) where there were obvious talent tiers. Things may still shake out that way, but at the moment there are probably a dozen names that could fit at #6 depending on one's personal preference. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Chris Crawford posted his top-50 draft list on BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25886

 

He still has Aiken #1 pending injury updates. 

 

Right now I like how this draft is shaping up for the Twins. Obviously, it would be nicer if there was more talent and they were drafting higher. But it certainly seems like there isn't a huge disadvantage to be drafting #6 versus, say, #3, unlike past years (ex. 2013) where there were obvious talent tiers. Things may still shake out that way, but at the moment there are probably a dozen names that could fit at #6 depending on one's personal preference. 

Uggh, behind the paywall. If you have access, can you tell us their ordering beyond Aiken and Rodgers? Would really appreciate it. Also, amazing they still have Aiken first.

[gunnarthor]

 

Chris Crawford posted his top-50 draft list on BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25886

 

He still has Aiken #1 pending injury updates. 

 

Right now I like how this draft is shaping up for the Twins. Obviously, it would be nicer if there was more talent and they were drafting higher. But it certainly seems like there isn't a huge disadvantage to be drafting #6 versus, say, #3, unlike past years (ex. 2013) where there were obvious talent tiers. Things may still shake out that way, but at the moment there are probably a dozen names that could fit at #6 depending on one's personal preference. 

Agreed.  I think this draft is going to be really hard to predict b/c the Astros are going to be such a crapshoot.  Did they ruin their relationship with Close?  Because he is representing a number of the top guys again in this draft - I think I read something on fangraphs that said he and Boras represented 9 of the top 15 guys on their list.  Do the Astros stay away from HS pitchers? HS hitters?  They have a ton of money, do they go underslot? Do agents trust them to come up with a pre-draft agreement?  I have no idea how that plays out.  They could end up with a really lame draft.

 

I think Matuella will be gone before the Twins pick and Rogers will be gone. Buehler looks like the "safe" college arm pick and will probably be gone too (I could see Houston nabbing him at 2 and Kriby at 5). And Tate is probably a top 5 guy at this point.  Allard and Aiken's injuries probably mean both will be available at #6.  And a few HS guys (Cameron) haven't really started yet.  So the Twins will have some nice choices, esp among college pitchers.

[markos]

 

Uggh, behind the paywall. If you have access, can you tell us their ordering beyond Aiken and Rodgers? Would really appreciate it. Also, amazing they still have Aiken first.

 

 

Focusing mostly on players that have been under discussion on this thread already:

Matuella, Tate and Buehler round out the top 5. He considers Matuella a 1-1 candidate, and thinks Tate has the highest upside.

Allard, Happ and Kirby are all top 10.

Funkhouser and Cameron are both in the teens.

Cody and Hooper are in the early thirties.

 

Though he didn't say this explicitly, I got the sense that he hasn't yet adjusted player's positions based on their current injury status. Make sense since they all have several more weeks to prove they are healthy/effective.

 

P.S. Does anyone else struggle with just how much paid content to divulge without crossing a line? I know that many writers (like KLaw) are fine with posting snippets here and there for discussion, but against blatant copy-paste. I'm never sure where to draw the line. Anyway, I hope this isn't too much...

[gunnarthor]

 

Focusing mostly on players that have been under discussion on this thread already:

Matuella, Tate and Buehler round out the top 5. He considers Matuella a 1-1 candidate, and thinks Tate has the highest upside.

Allard, Happ and Kirby are all top 10.

Funkhouser and Cameron are both in the teens.

Cody and Hooper are in the early thirties.

 

Though he didn't say this explicitly, I got the sense that he hasn't yet adjusted player's positions based on their current injury status. Make sense since they all have several more weeks to prove they are healthy/effective.

 

P.S. Does anyone else struggle with just how much paid content to divulge without crossing a line? I know that many writers (like KLaw) are fine with posting snippets here and there for discussion, but against blatant copy-paste. I'm never sure where to draw the line. Anyway, I hope this isn't too much...

I think summarizing their thoughts is fine but don't do a ton of cut and paste.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Focusing mostly on players that have been under discussion on this thread already:

Matuella, Tate and Buehler round out the top 5. He considers Matuella a 1-1 candidate, and thinks Tate has the highest upside.

Allard, Happ and Kirby are all top 10.

Funkhouser and Cameron are both in the teens.

Cody and Hooper are in the early thirties.

 

Though he didn't say this explicitly, I got the sense that he hasn't yet adjusted player's positions based on their current injury status. Make sense since they all have several more weeks to prove they are healthy/effective.

 

P.S. Does anyone else struggle with just how much paid content to divulge without crossing a line? I know that many writers (like KLaw) are fine with posting snippets here and there for discussion, but against blatant copy-paste. I'm never sure where to draw the line. Anyway, I hope this isn't too much...

I think you are well on the legit side of the line here. I'm not excited about Buehler, Funkhouser or Cameron. Assuming Tate and Matuella are gone, I'd be more interested in Allard, Happ or Kirby, probably in that order (assuming Allard's health problems are resolved by this summer).

[diehardtwinsfan]

The site policy is that snippets are OK, entire articles are not. Summaries are perfectly fine, and make sure you link to it.

 

 

That said, the Astros have ZERO leverage with 1-2 as they do not get it back if the person doesn't sign. I'd expect them to take a college senior who has no leverage with that pick, and preferably not one represented by Boras or Close, who I suspect will take advantage of every piece of leverage to extract the maximum dollar value.

[gunnarthor]

 

The site policy is that snippets are OK, entire articles are not. Summaries are perfectly fine, and make sure you link to it.


That said, the Astros have ZERO leverage with 1-2 as they do not get it back if the person doesn't sign. I'd expect them to take a college senior who has no leverage with that pick, and preferably not one represented by Boras or Close, who I suspect will take advantage of every piece of leverage to extract the maximum dollar value.

I thought the new rules gave them one more year if they failed to sign.  But it's academic, just from a practical stand point, they can't punt the #1 overall of 2014 to the #3 in 2016.  The FO would be tarred and feathered out of town.

[markos]

Kiley McDaniel is hearing lots of deal-making rumors.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Kiley McDaniel is hearing lots of deal-making rumors.

 

Well, with us not having a second round pick, I think it's less likely that they abandon BPA.  But maybe it lets us get a bit better talent than normally you would get at #6.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I know the Twins are risk averse, but given that Aiken will start his TJ recovery before he's a member of the Twins (and at an optimal time to do it), I'd like to think he's in the conversation (especially if he has James Andrews or someone like that do it). I know success rates are questionable, but 1-1 talent at 1-6, especially if they can get him for a discount would be huge. I'd strongly consider him here.

[Mike Sixel]

Comment From Abe Froman
Given the weak draft class, how much do you think Aiken's TJS hurts him? Chance he falls to the Cubs at 9?

 

Kiley McDaniel
I think he'll drop even further than that, if I had to guess.
via·less than a minute ago
 

[gunnarthor]

MLB released the draft slot amounts.  Twins first round pick is worth 3,889,500.  They lost their second round pick to get Santana (ouch) and the corresponding amount to go with it, just under 1.3m.

[markos]

Law posted his updated top-50 draft prospects last week. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3843

 

Interesting name at #2: 

 

 

2. Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona
He stays at short, has hit everywhere he's played (including two summers leading the Cape Cod League in batting average) and is a plus runner. He doesn't have any power, but his wide stance may be the reason, and closing it could unlock some doubles power in no time.

 

Not really any surprises other than that. He still has Kolby Allard top-5 despite his back injury. 

 

Right now, the top of this draft has some depth in college bats (Newman, Bregman, Swanson, Happ), but the Twins haven't invested a top pick in a college position player since Travis Lee back in 1996. 

 

Also, Funkhouser pitched well last weekend. With so many injuries to the top players, he's now a viable option at #6. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Law posted his updated top-50 draft prospects last week. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3843

 

Interesting name at #2: 

 

Not really any surprises other than that. He still has Kolby Allard top-5 despite his back injury. 

 

Right now, the top of this draft has some depth in college bats (Newman, Bregman, Swanson, Happ), but the Twins haven't invested a top pick in a college position player since Travis Lee back in 1996. 

 

Also, Funkhouser pitched well last weekend. With so many injuries to the top players, he's now a viable option at #6. 

I have not heard Newman's name anywhere near that high before. Interesting. Also, surprised he has Matuella ahead of Aiken. That makes no sense to me.  I would be interested in Happ, and maybe Swanson, but otherwise would go with a pitcher or high school outfielder.

[gunnarthor]

 

I have not heard Newman's name anywhere near that high before. Interesting. Also, surprised he has Matuella ahead of Aiken. That makes no sense to me.  I would be interested in Happ, and maybe Swanson, but otherwise would go with a pitcher or high school outfielder.

He and McDaniel both commented in chats last week that they expect Aiken to fall.  McDaniel suggested somewhere after pick 16 and Klaw said he could fall out of the first round, IIRC.  The worry is apparently how different his injury is to "normal" TJ recipients.  Obviously, I don't know enough but I really liked the idea of us grabbing him ala Giolito.  But doesn't sound like it's in the cards.

[gunnarthor]

From BP chat:

 

Boo Radley (Alabama): Are there any draft-eligible players that you like right now?

Sahadev Sharma: Kyle Funkhouser from Louisville. I'm an Illini guy, so I'm curious as to what Tyler Jay can be. Aiken being hurt makes the Cubs at 9 very interesting... Brendan Rodgers seems to be the consensus one at the moment. These things changes so quickly, though, so I'll just keep looking on from afar and watching how it all goes down.

 

LucasDad (MPLS): I think that Sano outperforms Bryant from July on, and that Gallo will be right with them- possibly. Obviously, the Twins will be even slower to promote, hence July on. I know the Gallo prediction is a stretch, but I feel like Sano could be even better than Bryant. Is this crazy to believe?

Sahadev Sharma: Crazy? Nah, almost nothing's crazy when it comes to predictions in baseball. I think Sano has a lot to work on and a lot to prove (re-prove, maybe?), and I'm unreasonably high on Bryant. I'm the first to admit that. I love Gallo though. That BP show he put on prior to the Futures Game last summer will forever be etched in my memory, so fun.

 

 

[jimmer]

I've been saying all along I want Kyle Funkhouser for us, and I haven't changed my mind yet. Nathan Kirby is starting to intrigue me though.

[gunnarthor]

 

I've been saying all along I want Kyle Funkhouser for us, and I haven't changed my mind yet. Nathan Kirby is starting to intrigue me though.

It's early but I don't think there is much of a chance of either of them making it to us.  Looks like Rodgers is #1 right now but Funkhowser, Kirby should both go in the 2-5 range.  If those three are gone, than two of Cameron, Swanson, Happ or Buehler would probably also be gone.  (I think Matuella is injured, otherwise he'd be a top 5 pick).  And, as someone noted, Klaw says Newman is moving up the charts.

 

The two big questions in the draft are 1) how far does Aiken (and Allard) fall? and 2) The Astros.  Did they burn bridges with Close so much that they won't draft players he represents?  Do they draft a guy underslot and hoard money for later picks, letting a more talented player drop?

[Mike Sixel]

From what I'm reading Aiken is dropping far, far down the list.....since the issue was "not the normal" issue.

 

Go get a hitter, best hitter in the class. 

[Hrbowski]

 

From what I'm reading Aiken is dropping far, far down the list.....since the issue was "not the normal" issue.

 

Go get a hitter, best hitter in the class. 

Ian Happ?

[nicksaviking]

Do they draft a guy underslot and hoard money for later picks, letting a more talented player drop?

Let's hope so, it didn't work out too well for them last year, and depending how one likes Twins class of Buxton and Berrios vs the Astros in 2012.