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In the midst of one of the most disappointing Twins seasons in memory, it's natural to look around for something, anything, to explain or distract from what promises to be a long, hard campaign. That's where pulitizer-winning, grammy-winning, genius-crafted (even if said genius is a Yankees fan), best-selling, award-monopolizing musical Hamilton comes in. Sure you can listen to it and distract yourself from the announcement of yet another dropped fly ball, blown lead, or ill-timed strike out. But you can also catch a glimpse of what how it might feel and what can still be done this year. My favorite example of Hamilton as metaphor for the Twins Season comes from the voice of George Washington in his first appearance on stage (starting at 0:52) So how does this explain...and offer a possible solution to the Twins situation? I'm glad you asked We are outgunned (witness the Pitching); outmanned (witness the ill-timed injuries); outnumbered (witness the teams lack of statistical acumen); outplanned (witness seemingly every decision that the manager or front office has made in the past six months). Still, we have model of a "modern major (field) general", the "venerated...veteran" Joe Mauer, who must be dumbstruck that just as he gets back into form, the entire squad built to support him has gotten blown into smithereens. The players he could be leading "keep retreating", regressing in their performance or being sent back down to Rochester to work out their kinks. And great as Joe has been, he "cannot be everywhere at once people", and remains: outgunned, outmanned, outnumbered, outplanned. While some, including me, have long preached patience, confidence and trust in that the same tactics that led to past success, it may be time to stop admiring "how [we] fire...from a distance" and just see "how things work out" and try something different. Mauer (L) and an unnamed rookie ® Or Christopher Jackson (L) and Lin Manuel Miranda ® So, Mauer needs a "right hand" man, a Hamilton to his Washington. Someone fearless enough to stick it out through the problems, and get aggressive now and then. Someone who is optimistic, ready to "rise up", and capable of acknowledging that doing the same thing over and over can end your career, but adapting and adjusting is what's necessary to survive. Put another way, in the big leagues: "dying is easy, living is harder." We can't expect that the "right hand man" is going to come galloping to our rescue from outside the organization. Mauer and company can do battle on the field, but they're going to have to make do with "what our Congress [aka the Twins Front Office] has promised". We can't beat other teams at their own games, but for all the rookies who rise up "young, scrappy, and hungry" we can't afford to "throw away their shot". We are outgunned, outmanned: so whichever youngster is ready to step up, they can and should help to lead the way and promote the culture of winning with the fellow prospects who fought with them on the fields of Fort Meyers, Chattanooga and Rochester. We are outnumbered, outplanned: but if you can adapt and bring in a few strong skills from outside the organization (maybe defensive metrics? maybe different attitudes about pitch selection) you can "master the element of surprise" and even if we lose the battle, we can win the war. So, who is it going to be? Berrios? Sano? Buxton? Chargois? Any of them...all of them...because while our general might need a right hand man, there's more to it that one silver bullet, or one pump up song

That New Pack Smell Every year, I treat myself to one pack of baseball cards. I've always enjoyed recapturing the glee, the confusion and the memories of stale bubble gum. This year, with the Twins careening below .500, it seems that plenty of fans would appreciate a diversion like this, but, as a curious soul, I wondered. Would the Twins be any better, if I replaced players on the team with those individuals in my particular deck of cards? Or, put another way, is the Twins Front Office any better at assembling talent than a random machine at the Topps factory? The results, both of my nostalgia and my exercise in Random GMing are as follows. *** PART THE FIRST: RANDOM MUSINGS *** Really? Parker? I always trick myself into thinking the top card will be someone of magic and wonder, someone to trick you into saying: YES! BEST PACK EVER!!...This year's magic man...Jarrod Parker...a good pitcher coming back from elbow surgery...oh boy...this might be more trying than one of Mike Pelfry's starts. Jose Lobaton (Catcher of the Washington Nationals) follows...Lobaton is fun to say, but I might prefer Loba-tron: Android Catcher of the Future. It's funny because he's a Tiger. Cody Ross of the Diamondbacks might be the most stereotypical Millenial suburban baseball boy name ever...but he was actually born in 1980 so he squeaks into the avant garde of Gen X suburban baseball names and the pack's determined outfield partner would be Rajai Davis, who is shown missing a catch...c'mon Topps, that's just mean! Oh boy, it's the middle of the pack time, hitting the role players, fringe prospects and journeymen part of the deck: Wily Peralta from the Brewers, Robbie Grossman from the Astros, and Robinson Chirinos of the Texas Rangers. These are all guys I could sit next to on a flight to New Delhi and never know they were major league baseball players (assuming they would A: fly to New Delhi and B: Fly coach) Ahh, memories of Mike Piazza Oh! We've got a throwback card! (Also known as fan service for the aging buyers of baseball cards) It's Mike Piazza from his Mets days. Side note: I was a big Piazza buff during my teenage years when the Mets were easier to see on Montanan TV than the Twins. I look forward to his induction in the Hall of Fame, even though I never actually did see him play live. Woah, it's time for some quality here at the end of the deck: Stephen Vogt (A's Catcher, and three pitchers who had strong seasons recently: Stephen Strasburg, Jhoulys Chacin, and Hisashi Iwakuma). Clearly my assumptions about the top of the pack being magical need to be re-evaluated. That might actually be the cleverer marketing ploy: save the best for last and convince the kids to go buy more...I'm on to you Topps, you and your diabolical machinations!! *** PART THE SECOND: "ANALYSIS" HERE BE HEARSAY AND CONJECTURE, BE YE WARNED *** So The Topps Pack of 12 contains 0 Infielders, 3 catchers (not counting Piazza), 3 Outfielders and 5 pitchers (all starters). So how would that do at replacing Twins players? In an unscientific study using baseball-reference's WAR so far this season (and a selection of Twins players who have logged most of the time in the line up, here's where the Twins players* (see note 1) stand. Starters: Suzuki/Mauer/Dozier/Plouffe/Santana/Rosario/Hicks/Sano Bench: Nunez/Escobar/Hermann/Robinson Line up Total (6.9) Starting Pitchers: Hughes/Gibson/Pelfry/Milone/Santana Relievers:Thompson/Duensing/Graham/Fein/Boyer/May/Perkins Pitching Staff Total (11.2) Twins Total: 18.1 WAR After that I hunted down the year for those players in this pack to see how they compare. Obviously I couldn't I didn't just want to replace bad players with someone better (any team is better if they choose better players), rather I wanted to see how the Twins could be expected to do if they brought in all 12 of these guys to replace others at similar positions (i.e. Starters, Catchers, and outfielders) So how would the Twins have done if they'd grabbed this pack of cards and plugged them into the rotation? Here's the results: SP1-Phil Hughes (1.8) Stephen Strasburg (-0.3) SP2-Kyle Gibson (2.4) Hisashi Iwakuma (0.6)--Only 10 starts SP3-Mike Pelfrey (1.7) Jhoulys Chacin (0.0)--Injured all year, hopefully maybe this would be May SP4-Tommy Milone (1.4) Willy Peralta (0.5) SP5-Ervin Santana (0.0) Jarrod Parker (0.0)--Injured all year, so it's a wash Regular Twins Staff: 7.3; Trading Card Staff: 0.8 Net Change (-6.5 WAR) The key take away, other than that my initial reaction to pitchers is based much more on name recognition than performance this year, has to be that despite even the worst outings of late for Twins pitchers, over the season, it's WAY better to have the devil we know than the devil we don't Maybe my initial pleasure with these pitchers was ill founded... If we acknowledge that Terry Ryan can build a rotation better than a completely random player generator, how about the line up? Here are the lineup replacements# (see note 2): C-Kurt Suzuki (-0.3) Stephen Vogt (2.5) LF-Eddie Rosario (1.0) Robbie Grossman (-0.4) Most games are in Left CF-Aaron Hicks (1.4) Rajai Davis (0.9) Most games in center. Utility IF- Eduardo Nunez (0.4) Jose Lobaton (-0.1) 2nd C-Chris Hermann (0.0) Robinson Chorinos (1.6) 4th OF-Shane Robinson (0.2) Cody Ross (-0.9) He only played 9 games (so I kept him here) Regular Twins Line up: 6.9; Trading Card Line up: 7.9 Net Change: (+1 WAR) Clearly the outfield is hurt by that set of swaps, but shockingly (or unshockingly I suppose) any combination of these three random catchers would all outperform the Suzuki/Hermann Tandem with room left over for a third catcher and a couple of days of Vogt spelling Mauer at first base...heck Chorinos even has starts at 3rd on his resume. All told, if the Twins let a random pack of trading cards determine half their line up, they would be significantly worse than they are: 18.1 Team WAR to 12.6 Team WAR. I won't use this as some asinine proof that the Twins are secret geniuses, but at the very least, I won't tweet out some claim that monkeys at typewriters could bang out a better roster than the front office. ...At least...until I open a better pack.... *Note 1: A case could be made that I should have used some different players who either played better (i.e. drop Santana and include Vargas instead) or worse (i.e. Drop Santana for Nolasco), but like my warning says, it's hearsay and conjecture, stick with me guys. #Note 2: I suppose you could quibble and say that I should have removed Hunter for Davis and kept Hicks, or dropped Santana instead of Nunez for the third catcher, but whatever way you do it, the gain of 1-3 Wins above Replacement isn't enough to offset for the dismal pitching changes. And besides that: HEARSAY! CONJECTURE! Smarter writers will have better reasons, I'm just a shmuck who opens trading cards and writes about it.

It's strange to say for someone who has written this blog for nearly seven years, but I've never written in depth about my first Twins game. But I have a good reason for that. I don't really remember it. I've tried to. I've imagined Kirby Puckett legging out a triple. I wishfully think that it was the Orioles so I can say that I saw Cal Ripken in the midst of his streak. But I just don't remember it. Not the day. Not the year. Not the opponent. Not the outcome. But I remember my grandfather, the man who took me there. I remember coming to Minneapolis from Montana, over a single long day's drive. And knowing it we had made it, when I could see the lights on the porch and hear the game on the radio. I remember sitting on a porch swing on summer mornings looking over the box scores with him as he sipped his coffee in an old robe and I peppered him with question after question. I remember holding his hand and walking down the Metrodome's concrete steps to our seats. I remember him point to the turf, and the bases, to see if I was following along, and joining in the "Noooo Smoking at the Metrodome". http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/21U64pZLN9L.jpg I remember him bringing me a swirled sundae in a Twins helmet cup and smiling kindly as the sundae ended up half in my mouth and half on my shirt. I remember his kind questions, "did you like it?", "who was your favorite player?", "what was your favorite moment?" I remember him happily lobbing underhand whiffle balls to my brothers and me, when we asked to play in the front yard that night and many other nights there after. In the years that followed we didn't always go to Twins games, we out grew whiffle ball, and I actually became an adroit helmet sundae eater. But he still asked his questions while he sat in his barcalounger and I sat on the sofa beside him. He still poured over box scores with the morning paper, and watched, and listened and read whenever he could. He had opinions about who was doing well, and how the old players compared and he shared them with me regularly. We talked about Paul Molitor getting hired and remembered seeing him in downtown Minneapolis when I was a boy. We talked about Tony O missing the hall of fame again and how he used to watch the batting practice bombs. We talked about how he was convinced that my college friend should become my wife the moment he found out she was a singer with season tickets. He passed away yesterday morning, after beating back cancer for longer than the doctors had thought he could. I knew he was tough, I knew he was proud, but when he passed I could only think about how kind he was and how happy he must have been with family around him, singing and sharing their love. Just like he shared the game, and a sundae, and his hand with me. Whatever day it was.