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  1. Sam Dyson, RHP, 31-years-old San Francisco Giants (31-41, fifth in NL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2020. 2019: 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 in 33.0 IP 2018: 2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 in 70.1 IP What’s to Like? Among the 171 relievers who’ve logged a combined 60 innings the past two seasons, Dyson ranks 26th in ERA (2.61) and 25th in WHIP (1.04). He has a five-pitch repertoire, which is unusual for a reliever. He sinker and cutter are his primary offerings, and he induces a lot of grounders. In that same sample referenced above, Dyson ranks eighth in ground ball rate (60.7%). Another attractive thing about Dyson is that he’s on a nice roll. After an uninspiring first 10 appearances of 2019, Dyson has pitched to a 1.31 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 21 games since. He’s issued just two walks over that stretch, limiting opponents to a measly .197/.240/.296 batting line (.536 OPS). His 3.9 BB% ranks 10th among the 250 pitchers to log at least 30 innings so far in 2019. Dyson also has some experience in the ninth inning, boasting 58 career saves to his credit, and has been very durable. He’s averaged nearly 70 appearances over the past four seasons. Concerns While being a very effective pitcher, Dyson is far from overpowering. In that sample of 171 relievers who’ve thrown 60+ innings the past two years, Dyson ranks 122nd in K% (21.5) and 132nd in swinging strike rate (10.2%). The Twins could really use another lefty in the bullpen, or at the very least a right-hander who can hold his own against opposite-side hitters. Dyson has a .264/.354/.395 line against lefties for his career (.749 OPS), though he’s been a more effective so far this season (.238/.304/.357, .661 OPS). He’s been incredible at home this year (0.52 ERA, .417 OPS against) but suspect on the road (4.60 ERA, .724 OPS), though those splits were reversed to some degree in 2018. See Also Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  2. Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016. After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year. One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target. See Also Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  3. As we move into July, we are getting closer and closer to the time where the Minnesota Twins need to make a move in order to solidify their bullpen for a postseason run. As we have seen in recent years, it’s of upmost importance for teams to have as many relievers that they can trust to get big outs in the postseason as possible. Fortunately for the Twins, relievers who can help a team in the postseason seem to be in abundance. Here at Twins Daily, we have already posted an article on more than a dozen potential relievers the Twins could target, and today we continue that list with Kansas City Royals closer Ian Kennedy.Ian Kennedy has been an established MLB starting pitcher for more than a decade now. Kennedy was the New York Yankees first-round draft pick back in 2006 out of the University of Southern California. It didn’t take Kennedy long to get to the majors, as he made his MLB debut just a year later in 2007. After not having much success in his first few seasons with the Yankees, they traded Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Max Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers. After a couple of good seasons as a starter for the Diamondbacks Kennedy started to struggle in 2012 and was eventually traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2013 July trade deadline. After a couple of decent seasons with the Padres, Kennedy signed a five-year $70 million-dollar deal with the defending champion Kansas City Royals in January of 2016. After the 2018 season, it was clear that the 34-year-old pitcher was losing a step, which played a part in the Royals transitioning Ian Kennedy to the bullpen this offseason. This move has paid off big for both Kennedy and the Royals. In 32 innings, across 31 relief appearances, Kennedy has a 3.38 ERA (2.06 FIP), with a 11.25 K/9 and just a 1.41 BB/9. Among the 173 qualified relievers this season, Kennedy’s 8.0 strikeout to walk ratio ranks 4th. This will be very attractive to the Twins front office which has shown an affinity for pitchers with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. We often hear how a move to the bullpen helps a starting pitcher gain some velocity on his fastball, and all of a sudden, he are a new and improved pitcher. In a game with so much complexity it’s hard to believe something as simple as this can make such a big difference, but with Ian Kennedy it has. In 2018, Kennedy averaged 91.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. This year, that number is up two full ticks to 93.9 MPH. This has helped Kennedy hold opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a .214 wOBA against his fastball, both marks are easily the best of his career. What amplifies this effect is that Kennedy is throwing his fastball on a career high 65 percent of hit pitches. With such a drastic improvement on a pitch that he throws over 60% of the time, it is no wonder why Kennedy has been so much better this year. One thing the Twins will have to consider when trading for Ian Kennedy is the money left on his contract. Kennedy is currently on year four of that five-year deal I mentioned previously, which would give the Twins control through 2020 if they were to trade for him. While this would be a nice addition, the $16.5 million that Kennedy is due in both 2019 and 2020 will give the Twins some pause. The money for 2019 might not be so intimidating as he will only be owed roughly $5.5 million if the Twins were to trade for him at the July 31st trade deadline. The part that might keep them from wanting to deal for Kennedy is the $16.5 million owed to him in 2020. That is a substantial amount of money, for a reliever, and that could drastically alter their plans for this upcoming offseason. At the same rate, Kennedy’s contract will probably make him available for cheap in terms of prospect capital, so if their focus is on maintaining as many of their prospects as possible, while still adding to the team, Kennedy could be a great target. See Also Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
  4. It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we'll take a look Reds breakout reliever Robert Stephenson.Robert Stephenson, RHP, 26-years-old Cincinnati Reds (31-38, 5th in NL Central) Four more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 3.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in 27 IP 2018: 9.26 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 9.3 BB/9 in 11.2 IP in MLB (2.87 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts) As we here at Twins Daily continue to profile every reliever under the sun, we reach a reliever for the Reds by the name of Robert Stephenson. Now, I’ll answer what was most likely your first question; “what the hell is a Robert Stephenson”? Which is fair as he sounds more like a member of The Strokes or a young adult novel writer than a major league ballplayer but I digress. Stephenson was a top pitching prospect for the Reds for a number of years but suffered the typical struggles of a pitcher adjusting to the major league game. He would walk too many guys and not go deep into ball games which is not really a great combination for a starting pitcher. Add onto this the fact that the Reds could not develop a pitcher if their lives depended on it and Stephenson’s struggles in short major league stints from 2016-18 are not hard to understand. The Reds finally wised up and brought in Derek Johnson to be their new pitching coach for 2019 and Johnson took one look at Stephenson and decided to make him a reliever (or maybe someone else did. I’m not Johnson or Stephenson, just some random dude on the internet). The results so far have been tremendous as the move to the bullpen added a tick to Stephenson’s fastball velocity (~93 MPH before, now ~94) and he dropped his curve and mostly dropped his change in favor of throwing his slider almost 60% of the time. This development has led to 2.59 FIP in 2019 so far along with the second-highest swinging strike rate in all of baseball among qualified relievers. The downside is the Reds might not sell They find themselves last in the NL Central, but their run differential shows a better team than what their record indicates. And if they do sell, I don’t think the 26 year-old Stephenson would be at the top of the list of guys who would go. Of course, anyone could be traded for the right price, but the Reds may direct teams to David Hernandez or Jared Hughes if they are looking for relief help. Another one of the knocks on Stephenson was that he had a hard time staying healthy and as I currently write this article, Stephenson is on a rehab assignment thanks to a cervical strain in his neck, so those injury concerns may still exist. Stephenson also lacks the kind of consistent performance that may be desired from a reliever. While his 2019 numbers are nice, he has not had a long history of success and there’s a chance that the league adjusts back to the changes he has made. The upside is obvious, he has made tangible changes to his game for the better, has secretly become one of the more dominating relievers in baseball, and would obviously be a fresh breath of life to a bullpen that needs support. Not to mention that his small amount of MLB service time (free agent in 2024) means that he would not be a mercenary or a “hired gun” for a single-year playoff run but could instead be a contributor for many years down the road. The flip side is that he would cost more in the form of prospects but that’s an issue for the Twins and the Reds to hash out. Now, here are a few clips of his slide-piece and just try not to tell yourself how much you want him: See Also John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
  5. Robert Stephenson, RHP, 26-years-old Cincinnati Reds (31-38, 5th in NL Central) Four more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 3.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in 27 IP 2018: 9.26 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 9.3 BB/9 in 11.2 IP in MLB (2.87 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts) As we here at Twins Daily continue to profile every reliever under the sun, we reach a reliever for the Reds by the name of Robert Stephenson. Now, I’ll answer what was most likely your first question; “what the hell is a Robert Stephenson”? Which is fair as he sounds more like a member of The Strokes or a young adult novel writer than a major league ballplayer but I digress. Stephenson was a top pitching prospect for the Reds for a number of years but suffered the typical struggles of a pitcher adjusting to the major league game. He would walk too many guys and not go deep into ball games which is not really a great combination for a starting pitcher. Add onto this the fact that the Reds could not develop a pitcher if their lives depended on it and Stephenson’s struggles in short major league stints from 2016-18 are not hard to understand. The Reds finally wised up and brought in Derek Johnson to be their new pitching coach for 2019 and Johnson took one look at Stephenson and decided to make him a reliever (or maybe someone else did. I’m not Johnson or Stephenson, just some random dude on the internet). The results so far have been tremendous as the move to the bullpen added a tick to Stephenson’s fastball velocity (~93 MPH before, now ~94) and he dropped his curve and mostly dropped his change in favor of throwing his slider almost 60% of the time. This development has led to 2.59 FIP in 2019 so far along with the second-highest swinging strike rate in all of baseball among qualified relievers. The downside is the Reds might not sell They find themselves last in the NL Central, but their run differential shows a better team than what their record indicates. And if they do sell, I don’t think the 26 year-old Stephenson would be at the top of the list of guys who would go. Of course, anyone could be traded for the right price, but the Reds may direct teams to David Hernandez or Jared Hughes if they are looking for relief help. Another one of the knocks on Stephenson was that he had a hard time staying healthy and as I currently write this article, Stephenson is on a rehab assignment thanks to a cervical strain in his neck, so those injury concerns may still exist. Stephenson also lacks the kind of consistent performance that may be desired from a reliever. While his 2019 numbers are nice, he has not had a long history of success and there’s a chance that the league adjusts back to the changes he has made. The upside is obvious, he has made tangible changes to his game for the better, has secretly become one of the more dominating relievers in baseball, and would obviously be a fresh breath of life to a bullpen that needs support. Not to mention that his small amount of MLB service time (free agent in 2024) means that he would not be a mercenary or a “hired gun” for a single-year playoff run but could instead be a contributor for many years down the road. The flip side is that he would cost more in the form of prospects but that’s an issue for the Twins and the Reds to hash out. Now, here are a few clips of his slide-piece and just try not to tell yourself how much you want him: https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1136738401204334592 https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1136738759435669504 https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1136739124436582400 See Also John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  6. Brad Hand, LHP, 29-years-old Cleveland Indians (38-34, 2nd in AL Central) Under team control through 2020, with a team option in 2021. 2019: 0.88 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 30.2 IP 2018: 2.28 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 27.2 IP What’s to Like? Everybody loves left-handed pitching coming out of their bullpen. Brad Hand is not just a left-handed specialist, he’s tough on both right and left-hand batters. Lefties are hitting .115 off him while righties are only hitting slightly better at .154. Hand reminds me of Taylor Rogers, he’s a left-handed reliever who can be brought in whenever you need outs. Hand is tied the AL lead in saves (20), is the AL leader in FanGraphs’ WAR (1.4) for relievers, is a perfect 20/20 on saves this season, and 2nd in ERA (0.88) for AL relievers. According to Statcast, Hand has an average spin rate of 2,529 RPMs on his four-seam fastball, which is about the same as former Twin Ryan Pressly, and good for about 12th best in the league. Pressly left Minnesota, increased his spin rate and has been very good for the Houston Astros since. A higher spin rate means hitters will have a harder time hitting a fastball as it will have more “life” to it. Hand also was born in Minneapolis and drafted out of Chaska High School, so it would be a nice homecoming. Concerns The largest concern with landing Hand would be the sheer cost to obtain him. With Hand being on a Cleveland Indians team that is not in rebuild mode, the Twins would have to give up more than one top prospect. Add to that fact that Hand is still under team control through 2021, and you have one of the most expensive targets the Twins could consider. Another concern with Hand would be the number of innings he’s pitched over the last four seasons. Since 2016 Hand has logged 271.1 innings pitched. While he’s not old by any means, there is always concern that a reliever will fall apart with too much use. With Hand being a starter early in his career though, this might not be much of an issue. See Also Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  7. Taylor Rogers is currently the only left-handed pitcher in the Minnesota Twins bullpen. With the coaching staff embracing analytics and matchups, the team would love to add another southpaw to come out of the pen in any given situation. They could add that lefty arm while also taking something away from division rival Cleveland Indians if they make a play for reliever Brad Hand.Brad Hand, LHP, 29-years-old Cleveland Indians (38-34, 2nd in AL Central) Under team control through 2020, with a team option in 2021. 2019: 0.88 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 30.2 IP 2018: 2.28 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 27.2 IP What’s to Like? Everybody loves left-handed pitching coming out of their bullpen. Brad Hand is not just a left-handed specialist, he’s tough on both right and left-hand batters. Lefties are hitting .115 off him while righties are only hitting slightly better at .154. Hand reminds me of Taylor Rogers, he’s a left-handed reliever who can be brought in whenever you need outs. Hand is tied the AL lead in saves (20), is the AL leader in FanGraphs’ WAR (1.4) for relievers, is a perfect 20/20 on saves this season, and 2nd in ERA (0.88) for AL relievers. According to Statcast, Hand has an average spin rate of 2,529 RPMs on his four-seam fastball, which is about the same as former Twin Ryan Pressly, and good for about 12th best in the league. Pressly left Minnesota, increased his spin rate and has been very good for the Houston Astros since. A higher spin rate means hitters will have a harder time hitting a fastball as it will have more “life” to it. Hand also was born in Minneapolis and drafted out of Chaska High School, so it would be a nice homecoming. Concerns The largest concern with landing Hand would be the sheer cost to obtain him. With Hand being on a Cleveland Indians team that is not in rebuild mode, the Twins would have to give up more than one top prospect. Add to that fact that Hand is still under team control through 2021, and you have one of the most expensive targets the Twins could consider. Another concern with Hand would be the number of innings he’s pitched over the last four seasons. Since 2016 Hand has logged 271.1 innings pitched. While he’s not old by any means, there is always concern that a reliever will fall apart with too much use. With Hand being a starter early in his career though, this might not be much of an issue. See Also Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
  8. Oliver Perez, LHP, 37-years-old Cleveland Indians ( in AL Central) Vesting option in 2020 for $2.75M if he reaches 55 games in 2019. 2019: 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.15 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 in 20.o IP 2018: 1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 in 32.1 IP What’s to Like? This would be a long shot since teams typically don’t make trades within their division and they’re also competing for a Wild Card spot, but Oliver Perez would be a perfect buy-low candidate as his 4.42 ERA doesn’t look pretty. Perez's peripherals would suggest some progression coming his way as opposing hitters' exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are all below the league average while his K rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) are above the league average, per Statcast. Furthermore, Fangraphs has his FIP in the low threes and his SIERA in the high twos, which gives you an indicator of how poor Cleveland is defensively. Concerns The vesting option will most likely be met, as he’s already at 28 games. That means he’ll be with the team next year, although $2.75M is not much to quabble over. His four seamer, which he throws 14.5 percent of the time, has been the cause of his inflated numbers as batters are slugging 1.071 off the pitch whereas it was literally .000 in 2018, per Statcast. There hasn’t been a drop in velocity so that’s not a concern, but he has thrown the fastball in the strike zone, and more importantly, in the middle of the strike zone more than last year which could be the reason for hitters success. This is an option that should be cheap if they are available but can still effective pieces and an improvement over the bottom half of our bullpen. Also, I’d like to think that pitch location is something that can be overcome with an adjustment in pitch mechanics or different pitch sequencing. See Also Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  9. John Gant, RHP, 26-years-old St. Louis Cardinals (35-33 in NL Central) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 1.66 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 in 38.0 IP 2018: 3.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.50 4.50 K/9, BB/9 in 114.0 IP (19 games started) What’s to Like? He’s just under 27-years-old and could be with the team for three more years, which could turn out to be pretty valuable if his first 33 innings as a full-time reliever are any indication. With a 1.64 ERA his peripherals would obviously suggest the possibility for negative regression, but Gant has elite stuff that has been fooling hitters all year. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1123405809499680771 Per Statcast, the movement of his changeup (23.9 percent usage), four seamer (23.1 percent), and curveball (11 percent) are all considered top 10 or better in the league. This leaves out his most oft used pitch, the sinker (33.1 percent), against which opposing hitters have a slugging percentage of .301 in 2019. Concerns I don’t mean to be overly optimistic, but there isn’t a lot to be concerned about here since he’s been so good. That said, some things to consider: given his age, contract situation, and success he’ll be more expensive than Oliver Perez and Craig Stammen, the move from the NL to the AL means he would be facing better hitting (primarily a DH instead of a pinch hitter), and as he gains more innings, hitters will have more of a scouting report on him. The concerns are really grasping at straws here. Gant would be a phenomenal add to our bullpen and would probably fit right into an eighth-inning role. See Also Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  10. Alex Colome, RHP, 30-years-old Chicago White Sox (31-34, 3rd in NL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2020. 2019: 2.39 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 8.20 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 in 26.1 IP 2018: 3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.53 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 68.0 IP Since his full-time switch into the Rays bullpen in 2016, Alex Colome has been a model of consistency at the backend of games for Tampa Bay and Seattle. In Colome, the Twins would be trading for an established closer. The White Sox acquired Colome from Seattle in exchange for Omar Narvaez in November of 2018, a very reasonable price for a high-end bullpen arm (although It should be noted that Narvaez is having a career year at the plate thus far in 2019, having amassed a 1.4 fWAR through his first 58 games played). Colome is earning around $7.3 million in 2019, and is under team control for one more full season in 2020 through arbitration (his age 31 season). What’s to Like? Colome has continued to put up excellent numbers for the White Sox in 2019. He is essentially a two pitch pitcher, featuring a four seam fastball and a cutter he throws at approximately a 40-60 ratio. Colome’s fastball tops out at around 94-95 mph range. Over the last 3 years only Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Wade Davis have saved more games. This is in spite of Colome occupying a setup role to Edwin Diaz for Seattle for part of the 2018 season. Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Colome may be due for a regression in the near future. His fastball is down over one mph on average in 2019 (that’s an especially big deal if you only throw two pitches). Additionally, Colome has benefited from a .117 BABIP (compared to a career figure of .279). Colome’s K/9 has dropped sharply, although this figure has varied widely in his strong 4 year run between 7.8-11.2 K/9. Colome has also seen about a 10% drop in GB%, a sharp uptick in HR/9, and his FIP (4.22) and xFIP (4.59) belie his sparkling 2.39 ERA. Perhaps most alarmingly, Colome has gone from allowing approximately 4% of the pitchers opposing hitters contact to be barreled, to 14.1% in 2019, which is a figure in the bottom 2% of the league. Colome might be a solid add for a contending team in 2019, but the Twins should stay well away. See Also Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
  11. Seth Lugo, RHP, 29-years-old New York Mets (33-34 in NL East) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 2.51 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.69 K/9, 1.59 BB/9 in 32.1 IP 2018: 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 in 101.1 IP (5 games started) What’s to Like? Lugo is a good, not great, reliever that would fit in nicely as a bridge between the starters and eighth or ninth inning guys and could come at a relatively cheap cost. That said, he has effectively pitched a majority of the games in the eighth inning for the Met, so the potential is there for him to come in during a high leverage situation. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/888108750027898880 He is right around league average in his K rate, hard hit rate and xwOBA, and has been very good at limiting free passes as a reliever. As laid out in this article, he also has reverse splits by dominating lefties this year which is something the Twins bullpen is in need of. Concerns Being eligible for arbitration makes him more valuable, and more expensive, than if he were a half year rental. That said, that could also benefit the Twins if he does well. The biggest area of concern would be Lugo’s strand rate with runners in scoring position. Per FanGraphs, he has a 69.4 percent strand rate overall which includes an 80.0 percent rate in “high leverage” situations and just a 9.4 percent (!!!!) rate with men in scoring position. With men in scoring position, his K/9 stays about the same (11.81) but his BB/9 more than doubles (5.06). This could indicate that, with runners on, Lugo is dancing around the strike zone a little more trying to miss bats and get hitters to chase. Something a simple change in philosophy could cure in a matter of no time. Regardless of the concerns, I do think this is one of the better, cheaper options for the Twins to pursue. See Also Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
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