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Sam Dyson, RHP, 31-years-old San Francisco Giants (31-41, fifth in NL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2020. 2019: 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 in 33.0 IP 2018: 2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 in 70.1 IP What’s to Like? Among the 171 relievers who’ve logged a combined 60 innings the past two seasons, Dyson ranks 26th in ERA (2.61) and 25th in WHIP (1.04). He has a five-pitch repertoire, which is unusual for a reliever. He sinker and cutter are his primary offerings, and he induces a lot of grounders. In that same sample referenced above, Dyson ranks eighth in ground ball rate (60.7%). Another attractive thing about Dyson is that he’s on a nice roll. After an uninspiring first 10 appearances of 2019, Dyson has pitched to a 1.31 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 21 games since. He’s issued just two walks over that stretch, limiting opponents to a measly .197/.240/.296 batting line (.536 OPS). His 3.9 BB% ranks 10th among the 250 pitchers to log at least 30 innings so far in 2019. Dyson also has some experience in the ninth inning, boasting 58 career saves to his credit, and has been very durable. He’s averaged nearly 70 appearances over the past four seasons. Concerns While being a very effective pitcher, Dyson is far from overpowering. In that sample of 171 relievers who’ve thrown 60+ innings the past two years, Dyson ranks 122nd in K% (21.5) and 132nd in swinging strike rate (10.2%). The Twins could really use another lefty in the bullpen, or at the very least a right-hander who can hold his own against opposite-side hitters. Dyson has a .264/.354/.395 line against lefties for his career (.749 OPS), though he’s been a more effective so far this season (.238/.304/.357, .661 OPS). He’s been incredible at home this year (0.52 ERA, .417 OPS against) but suspect on the road (4.60 ERA, .724 OPS), though those splits were reversed to some degree in 2018. See Also Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers have helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence upgrades are required. Today, we'll take a look at Pirates closer Felipe Vázquez.Felipe Vázquez, LHP, 27-years-old Pittsburgh Pirates (36-41, 5th in NL Central) Signed through 2021, 4 yrs/$22M (18-21) & 22-23 team option. 2019: 1.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 33.0 IP 2018: 2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 in 70.0 IP Felipe Vázquez might be the best option for the Twins to pursue. That is, of course, if the Pirates even make him available. As ESPN’s Buster Olney reports, Pittsburgh is going to set his price through the roof to whoever wants to get him. But, as Steve Adams writes at MLB Trade Rumors, the Bucs are also in great need of new arms to their rotation, which makes the Twins a strong contender. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Joe Starkey writes that the Pirates’ only untouchable is Josh Bell, which can bring our hopes up. But, is Vázquez really worth all the effort? What’s to Like? He is young, solves some of the Twins major bullpen problems and is under team control for the next four years, for a very reasonable price. Beyond that, his resumé becomes even more interesting when you notice that he averages 98.1 mph in his four seamer, 88.3 mph in his changeup and 86.4 mph in his slider. He was an All-Star last year, having worse numbers than the ones he’s having right now. That’s a hell of a good candidate. Before the All-Star Game last year, the Venezuelan was posting a 3.05 ERA in 41 1/3 innings of work, with 23 saves in 27 opportunities (85.1%). So far this year, he’s got a 1.91 ERA, with 19 saves in 20 opportunities (95%) in 33 innings. If the Twins were to go after him, they would be getting an improved All-Star closer, who possibly hasn’t reached his prime yet. The Twins have some of the worst numbers in the league when it comes to late in the game situations. In the eighth and ninth innings, Minnesota has the 18th ERA (4.59), the 20th FIP (4.57) and is has the tenth highest hard hit rate, with 39%. When you narrow it down to right handed hitters, those numbers are even worse: 5.29 ERA (27th), 5.07 FIP (24th) and 42.3 hard hit rate (27th). Vázquez represents an improvement in basically all of those metrics. Currently, against righties, he holds a 1.65 ERA and 2.20 FIP, with 31.3% hard hit rate. While the Twins have a .824 OPS against righties late in the game, Vázquez has been posting .558 in the same situation. And the most drastic improvement he could bring to Minnesota’s bullpen lies on the high leverage situations. So far, Twins relievers have posted a 4.57 ERA with .259 AVG and .726 OPS, while Vázquez has, respectively, 1.17 ERA, .130 AVG and .416 OPS. Concerns You will always have to be concerned about the shift between the NL and AL for pitchers. Technically, most of his numbers against AL teams are better than both his numbers against the NL and his career numbers, but that’s based on a very small sample (43 1/3 innings). Perhaps he won’t be the same lights-out pitcher, who had 26 scoreless outings in 31 games so far this year, when pitching to AL lineups on a daily basis. Another reason to be a bit worried is the fact that Vázquez hasn’t had a single postseason appearance, so we can’t know for sure how well he would perform closing games in the playoffs. But, if even superstar closer Craig Kimbrel didn’t pitch well during the Red Sox World Series run last year (5.91 ERA), I think Vázquez could be given the benefit of the doubt. Here’s a look at some highlights from Vázquez’ 2018 season: See Also Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article -
Potential Twins Bullpen Target: Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates
Thiéres Rabelo posted an article in Twins
Felipe Vázquez, LHP, 27-years-old Pittsburgh Pirates (36-41, 5th in NL Central) Signed through 2021, 4 yrs/$22M (18-21) & 22-23 team option. 2019: 1.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 33.0 IP 2018: 2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 in 70.0 IP Felipe Vázquez might be the best option for the Twins to pursue. That is, of course, if the Pirates even make him available. As ESPN’s Buster Olney reports, Pittsburgh is going to set his price through the roof to whoever wants to get him. But, as Steve Adams writes at MLB Trade Rumors, the Bucs are also in great need of new arms to their rotation, which makes the Twins a strong contender. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Joe Starkey writes that the Pirates’ only untouchable is Josh Bell, which can bring our hopes up. But, is Vázquez really worth all the effort? What’s to Like? He is young, solves some of the Twins major bullpen problems and is under team control for the next four years, for a very reasonable price. Beyond that, his resumé becomes even more interesting when you notice that he averages 98.1 mph in his four seamer, 88.3 mph in his changeup and 86.4 mph in his slider. He was an All-Star last year, having worse numbers than the ones he’s having right now. That’s a hell of a good candidate. Before the All-Star Game last year, the Venezuelan was posting a 3.05 ERA in 41 1/3 innings of work, with 23 saves in 27 opportunities (85.1%). So far this year, he’s got a 1.91 ERA, with 19 saves in 20 opportunities (95%) in 33 innings. If the Twins were to go after him, they would be getting an improved All-Star closer, who possibly hasn’t reached his prime yet. The Twins have some of the worst numbers in the league when it comes to late in the game situations. In the eighth and ninth innings, Minnesota has the 18th ERA (4.59), the 20th FIP (4.57) and is has the tenth highest hard hit rate, with 39%. When you narrow it down to right handed hitters, those numbers are even worse: 5.29 ERA (27th), 5.07 FIP (24th) and 42.3 hard hit rate (27th). Vázquez represents an improvement in basically all of those metrics. Currently, against righties, he holds a 1.65 ERA and 2.20 FIP, with 31.3% hard hit rate. While the Twins have a .824 OPS against righties late in the game, Vázquez has been posting .558 in the same situation. And the most drastic improvement he could bring to Minnesota’s bullpen lies on the high leverage situations. So far, Twins relievers have posted a 4.57 ERA with .259 AVG and .726 OPS, while Vázquez has, respectively, 1.17 ERA, .130 AVG and .416 OPS. Concerns You will always have to be concerned about the shift between the NL and AL for pitchers. Technically, most of his numbers against AL teams are better than both his numbers against the NL and his career numbers, but that’s based on a very small sample (43 1/3 innings). Perhaps he won’t be the same lights-out pitcher, who had 26 scoreless outings in 31 games so far this year, when pitching to AL lineups on a daily basis. Another reason to be a bit worried is the fact that Vázquez hasn’t had a single postseason appearance, so we can’t know for sure how well he would perform closing games in the playoffs. But, if even superstar closer Craig Kimbrel didn’t pitch well during the Red Sox World Series run last year (5.91 ERA), I think Vázquez could be given the benefit of the doubt. Here’s a look at some highlights from Vázquez’ 2018 season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p9vh98xzK0 See Also Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
Sergio Romo, 36 years old, RHP Miami Marlins (NL East, 30-49) Free Agent Following 2019 Season 2018: 4.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.02 K/9, 2.67 BB/9 in 67.1 IP 2019: 4.76 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.31 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 in 28.1 IP What’s To Like If you are keen on evaluating potential trade targets like securities investments then perhaps the phrase “past performance is not indicative of future results” applies to Sergio Romo, but we’ll dive into the concerns later. For now, we’re going to focus on the good things. Sergio Romo belongs to a very exclusive club - he is one of five active players with three or more World Series rings. Three of the other four were his teammates for those three championships. Romo wasn’t just a bystander for those three title runs either. He was a key contributor in what became known as the “core four” in San Francisco, referring their core four relievers during their dynasty years. Throughout his career, Romo has tallied 23 ⅓ postseason IP with a 3.09 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. The highlight of his postseason success was striking out Miguel Cabrera to end the 2012 World Series. Enough living in the past. This is 2019, not 2010-16. Concerns Unless you’re totally sold on a 36-year-old reliever who’s a previous All-Star and three-time World Champion then there’s a lot to be concerned about with Sergio Romo. He simply has not been very good for a few years now and that’s the most diplomatic way I can phrase that. His best days are certainly behind him, which one could reasonably expect from a 36 year old. This season has not been all that kind to Romo either. His numbers with the Marlins aren’t the type of numbers that jump off the page and get you excited. So far in 2019 his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and his walk rate is the highest of his career. With a 4.76 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in just under 30 innings, it would be difficult to imagine the Marlins will receive much interest in Romo at the deadline. If the Twins do call, however, I suppose the one thing we can hang our hat on is that Sergio Romo has more postseason innings pitched than the entire Minnesota Twins pitching staff. See Also Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
Shane Greene, RHP, 30-years-old Detroit Tigers (26-50, 5th in AL Central) Under team control via arbitration through 2020 2019: 0.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 30 IP 2018: 5.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 63.1 IP Greene has a fascinating and up and down resume since breaking into the majors with the Tigers in 2016. He’s operated on an ‘even year bad, odd year great’ mode in his time with Detroit. Luckily for Greene, this is an odd year. Green was originally drafted by the New York Yankees in the 15th round of the 2009 draft. He was acquired by Detroit in a three-team trade that saw Robbie Ray head to the Diamondbacks and Didi Gregorious shift to the Yankees. Greene is earning a reasonable $4 million this season, and is under team control via arbitration through the end of the 2020 season. What’s to Like? Greene is essentially a three-pitch pitcher. He throws a 93 mph sinker (45%), an 88 mph cutter (28%), and an 81 mph slider (21% - a few miscellaneous pitches make up his remaining mix). Despite having very up and down numbers, there is lots to like about the consistency present in Greene’s peripherals. In his last two seasons of work, Greene has maintained a K/9 of at least 9.00 and a BB/9 of less than 3.00. Additionally, Greene has average a GB% of 46% over the last two seasons (it’s up 12% this year and a big reason for his success in 2019). Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Greene may be due for some regression in the near future. His 0.93 ERA is paired with a 3.56 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, in addition to an unsustainable .181 BaBIP. His BaBIP throughout his career has varied wildly and is supported this year by an almost elite ground ball rate. Greene’s 2019 .217 wOBA is in the top 2% of all pitchers, an increase in the usage of his cutter has supported this. In 2019, the pitch has generated an xBA (expected batting average) of just .143. It’s likely that Greene continues to pitch effectively and put up effective numbers in 2019. Greene would be a solid upgrade for the Twins bullpen but only as part of a two pitcher upgrade. He would give the Twins a controllable, solid high leverage arm but does not have the ceiling of Taylor Rogers and is not likely to continue to put up his gaudy 2019 numbers. See Also Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers have helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence upgrades are required. Today, we'll take a look at Tigers closer Shane Green.Shane Greene, RHP, 30-years-old Detroit Tigers (26-50, 5th in AL Central) Under team control via arbitration through 2020 2019: 0.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 30 IP 2018: 5.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 63.1 IP Greene has a fascinating and up and down resume since breaking into the majors with the Tigers in 2016. He’s operated on an ‘even year bad, odd year great’ mode in his time with Detroit. Luckily for Greene, this is an odd year. Green was originally drafted by the New York Yankees in the 15th round of the 2009 draft. He was acquired by Detroit in a three-team trade that saw Robbie Ray head to the Diamondbacks and Didi Gregorious shift to the Yankees. Greene is earning a reasonable $4 million this season, and is under team control via arbitration through the end of the 2020 season. What’s to Like? Greene is essentially a three-pitch pitcher. He throws a 93 mph sinker (45%), an 88 mph cutter (28%), and an 81 mph slider (21% - a few miscellaneous pitches make up his remaining mix). Despite having very up and down numbers, there is lots to like about the consistency present in Greene’s peripherals. In his last two seasons of work, Greene has maintained a K/9 of at least 9.00 and a BB/9 of less than 3.00. Additionally, Greene has average a GB% of 46% over the last two seasons (it’s up 12% this year and a big reason for his success in 2019). Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Greene may be due for some regression in the near future. His 0.93 ERA is paired with a 3.56 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, in addition to an unsustainable .181 BaBIP. His BaBIP throughout his career has varied wildly and is supported this year by an almost elite ground ball rate. Greene’s 2019 .217 wOBA is in the top 2% of all pitchers, an increase in the usage of his cutter has supported this. In 2019, the pitch has generated an xBA (expected batting average) of just .143. It’s likely that Greene continues to pitch effectively and put up effective numbers in 2019. Greene would be a solid upgrade for the Twins bullpen but only as part of a two pitcher upgrade. He would give the Twins a controllable, solid high leverage arm but does not have the ceiling of Taylor Rogers and is not likely to continue to put up his gaudy 2019 numbers. See Also Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article -
Will Smith, LHP, 29-years-old San Francisco Giants (33-43, 5th in NL West) Free Agent following 2019 season. 2018: 2.55 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 12.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 in 53 IP 2019: 2.01 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 13.50 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 in 31.1 IP What’s To Like There is a lot to like about Will Smith. He has been a very effective pitcher for the majority of his career and has taken his game to the next level over the past two seasons in San Francisco. It’s no secret that the Giants are not a very good team but when they have had opportunities to win, Will Smith has done an excellent job locking them down. He has converted all twenty of his save opportunities this year and his numbers get even more impressive than that. It is not uncommon for left-handed pitchers, relievers especially, to struggle against right-handed hitters. That has not been the case for Smith. His season splits are very favorable against left and right-handed hitters. In 2019 right-handed hitters have hit .152/.212/.278 compared to .172/.200/.276 for left-handed hitters when facing Will Smith. Oracle Park in San Francisco has forever been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. ESPN currently has Oracle Park ranked as the 24th best park for scoring runs. One might assume that Will Smith has benefited from pitching in such a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but his home/road splits are very favorable as well. In 13 ⅓ innings away from Oracle Park, Will Smith has held batters to a very pedestrian .070/.111/.233 while raking up 27 K and a minuscule 1.35 ERA. Concerns As discussed above, there is a whole lot to like about Will Smith, but that doesn’t mean he comes without any concerns. Smith missed all of 2017 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and even though he has pitched well since returning to the mound, the surgery is still worth mentioning. The surgery is not the only concern either. He will become a free agent after this season so acquiring Smith will very likely be a rental acquisition, unless Minnesota is able to negotiate a longer term contract before the season ends. Another concern with Smith is not about his on-field body of work, but rather the price to acquire his talents. Highly effective left-handed relievers are a hot commodity at the trade deadline and with San Francisco in a rebuild, they will very likely be seeking a hefty exchange for Smith. The last concern with Smith is his second half stats from 2018. Overall on the season he pitched very well but he did struggle a bit in the second half. Over the second half of 2018, opposing hitters were a combined .231/.293/.363 compared to .160/.211/.210 in the first half. His ERA also ballooned to 4.18 in the second half compared to his 1.23 ERA in the first half. His 2018 second half struggles could be a reason to pause or possibly pass on Smith given the uncertainty of how he will perform in the second half of 2019. But what he’s done so far this season is nothing short of impressive and he is certainly a very legitimate trade target for the Minnesota Twins. See Also Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we'll take a look Reds breakout reliever Robert Stephenson.Robert Stephenson, RHP, 26-years-old Cincinnati Reds (31-38, 5th in NL Central) Four more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 3.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in 27 IP 2018: 9.26 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 9.3 BB/9 in 11.2 IP in MLB (2.87 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts) As we here at Twins Daily continue to profile every reliever under the sun, we reach a reliever for the Reds by the name of Robert Stephenson. Now, I’ll answer what was most likely your first question; “what the hell is a Robert Stephenson”? Which is fair as he sounds more like a member of The Strokes or a young adult novel writer than a major league ballplayer but I digress. Stephenson was a top pitching prospect for the Reds for a number of years but suffered the typical struggles of a pitcher adjusting to the major league game. He would walk too many guys and not go deep into ball games which is not really a great combination for a starting pitcher. Add onto this the fact that the Reds could not develop a pitcher if their lives depended on it and Stephenson’s struggles in short major league stints from 2016-18 are not hard to understand. The Reds finally wised up and brought in Derek Johnson to be their new pitching coach for 2019 and Johnson took one look at Stephenson and decided to make him a reliever (or maybe someone else did. I’m not Johnson or Stephenson, just some random dude on the internet). The results so far have been tremendous as the move to the bullpen added a tick to Stephenson’s fastball velocity (~93 MPH before, now ~94) and he dropped his curve and mostly dropped his change in favor of throwing his slider almost 60% of the time. This development has led to 2.59 FIP in 2019 so far along with the second-highest swinging strike rate in all of baseball among qualified relievers. The downside is the Reds might not sell They find themselves last in the NL Central, but their run differential shows a better team than what their record indicates. And if they do sell, I don’t think the 26 year-old Stephenson would be at the top of the list of guys who would go. Of course, anyone could be traded for the right price, but the Reds may direct teams to David Hernandez or Jared Hughes if they are looking for relief help. Another one of the knocks on Stephenson was that he had a hard time staying healthy and as I currently write this article, Stephenson is on a rehab assignment thanks to a cervical strain in his neck, so those injury concerns may still exist. Stephenson also lacks the kind of consistent performance that may be desired from a reliever. While his 2019 numbers are nice, he has not had a long history of success and there’s a chance that the league adjusts back to the changes he has made. The upside is obvious, he has made tangible changes to his game for the better, has secretly become one of the more dominating relievers in baseball, and would obviously be a fresh breath of life to a bullpen that needs support. Not to mention that his small amount of MLB service time (free agent in 2024) means that he would not be a mercenary or a “hired gun” for a single-year playoff run but could instead be a contributor for many years down the road. The flip side is that he would cost more in the form of prospects but that’s an issue for the Twins and the Reds to hash out. Now, here are a few clips of his slide-piece and just try not to tell yourself how much you want him: See Also John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article- 9 replies
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Potential Twins Bullpen Trade Target: Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds
Matt Braun posted an article in Twins
Robert Stephenson, RHP, 26-years-old Cincinnati Reds (31-38, 5th in NL Central) Four more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 3.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in 27 IP 2018: 9.26 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 9.3 BB/9 in 11.2 IP in MLB (2.87 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts) As we here at Twins Daily continue to profile every reliever under the sun, we reach a reliever for the Reds by the name of Robert Stephenson. Now, I’ll answer what was most likely your first question; “what the hell is a Robert Stephenson”? Which is fair as he sounds more like a member of The Strokes or a young adult novel writer than a major league ballplayer but I digress. Stephenson was a top pitching prospect for the Reds for a number of years but suffered the typical struggles of a pitcher adjusting to the major league game. He would walk too many guys and not go deep into ball games which is not really a great combination for a starting pitcher. Add onto this the fact that the Reds could not develop a pitcher if their lives depended on it and Stephenson’s struggles in short major league stints from 2016-18 are not hard to understand. The Reds finally wised up and brought in Derek Johnson to be their new pitching coach for 2019 and Johnson took one look at Stephenson and decided to make him a reliever (or maybe someone else did. I’m not Johnson or Stephenson, just some random dude on the internet). The results so far have been tremendous as the move to the bullpen added a tick to Stephenson’s fastball velocity (~93 MPH before, now ~94) and he dropped his curve and mostly dropped his change in favor of throwing his slider almost 60% of the time. This development has led to 2.59 FIP in 2019 so far along with the second-highest swinging strike rate in all of baseball among qualified relievers. The downside is the Reds might not sell They find themselves last in the NL Central, but their run differential shows a better team than what their record indicates. And if they do sell, I don’t think the 26 year-old Stephenson would be at the top of the list of guys who would go. Of course, anyone could be traded for the right price, but the Reds may direct teams to David Hernandez or Jared Hughes if they are looking for relief help. Another one of the knocks on Stephenson was that he had a hard time staying healthy and as I currently write this article, Stephenson is on a rehab assignment thanks to a cervical strain in his neck, so those injury concerns may still exist. Stephenson also lacks the kind of consistent performance that may be desired from a reliever. While his 2019 numbers are nice, he has not had a long history of success and there’s a chance that the league adjusts back to the changes he has made. The upside is obvious, he has made tangible changes to his game for the better, has secretly become one of the more dominating relievers in baseball, and would obviously be a fresh breath of life to a bullpen that needs support. Not to mention that his small amount of MLB service time (free agent in 2024) means that he would not be a mercenary or a “hired gun” for a single-year playoff run but could instead be a contributor for many years down the road. The flip side is that he would cost more in the form of prospects but that’s an issue for the Twins and the Reds to hash out. Now, here are a few clips of his slide-piece and just try not to tell yourself how much you want him: https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1136738401204334592 https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1136738759435669504 https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1136739124436582400 See Also John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
Ty Buttrey, RHP, 26-years-old LA Angels (38-39, 3rd in AL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2024 2019: 2.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.60 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 35.2 IP 2018: 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.02 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 in 16.1 IP Ty Buttrey is a relative newcomer on the scene for the LA Angels bullpen, and a welcome one. Buttrey was originally a fourth-round pick of the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 draft but came to the Angels from the Red Sox in exchange for Ian Kinsler at the 2018 deadline. It could work out to be a great deal for the Angels if Buttrey can maintain his current level of performance. Buttrey became the Angels closer at the end of the 2018 season. In a smattering of late big league innings, he put together a rare combination of a K/9 of over 11 and a BB/9 of under 3. He will be under team control through the end of the 2024 season. What’s to Like? Buttrey has a classic combination of size and tools to handle a role at the back end of any bullpen. At 6-6, 230 lbs, Buttrey has a 70-grade fastball which averages 97.5 mph in 2019 but he can crank all the way up to 100 mph. Buttrey throws his fastball approximately 60% of the time but also features a curveball (30%) and a strong changeup (10%). In addition to big velocity and strong command, Buttrey also has an excellent ground ball rate (around 45%), a combination which should allow him to occupy a high leverage relief role for the next 5+ years. Concerns There’s not a ton to be concerned about with Buttrey. His biggest concern is the lack of an established big league track record, which also means he has fewer miles on his arm than other options. Buttrey’s peripheral numbers are slightly worse than his ERA in 2019 (the reverse was true in 2018) with a FIP of 3.09. Buttrey’s ground ball rate has dropped significantly in 2019 (56% to 43%) although his 2018 MLB debut was only 16 innings. The biggest concern with Buttrey may be the price. With so much team control available to the Angels and a core featuring Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, there’s no good reason to move the Angels best bullpen arm. If they did, he would be one of the best arms available to the Twins at the deadline. See Also Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Ty Buttrey of the Angels.Ty Buttrey, RHP, 26-years-old LA Angels (38-39, 3rd in AL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2024 2019: 2.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.60 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 35.2 IP 2018: 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.02 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 in 16.1 IP Ty Buttrey is a relative newcomer on the scene for the LA Angels bullpen, and a welcome one. Buttrey was originally a fourth-round pick of the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 draft but came to the Angels from the Red Sox in exchange for Ian Kinsler at the 2018 deadline. It could work out to be a great deal for the Angels if Buttrey can maintain his current level of performance. Buttrey became the Angels closer at the end of the 2018 season. In a smattering of late big league innings, he put together a rare combination of a K/9 of over 11 and a BB/9 of under 3. He will be under team control through the end of the 2024 season. What’s to Like? Buttrey has a classic combination of size and tools to handle a role at the back end of any bullpen. At 6-6, 230 lbs, Buttrey has a 70-grade fastball which averages 97.5 mph in 2019 but he can crank all the way up to 100 mph. Buttrey throws his fastball approximately 60% of the time but also features a curveball (30%) and a strong changeup (10%). In addition to big velocity and strong command, Buttrey also has an excellent ground ball rate (around 45%), a combination which should allow him to occupy a high leverage relief role for the next 5+ years. Concerns There’s not a ton to be concerned about with Buttrey. His biggest concern is the lack of an established big league track record, which also means he has fewer miles on his arm than other options. Buttrey’s peripheral numbers are slightly worse than his ERA in 2019 (the reverse was true in 2018) with a FIP of 3.09. Buttrey’s ground ball rate has dropped significantly in 2019 (56% to 43%) although his 2018 MLB debut was only 16 innings. The biggest concern with Buttrey may be the price. With so much team control available to the Angels and a core featuring Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, there’s no good reason to move the Angels best bullpen arm. If they did, he would be one of the best arms available to the Twins at the deadline. See Also Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
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Brad Hand, LHP, 29-years-old Cleveland Indians (38-34, 2nd in AL Central) Under team control through 2020, with a team option in 2021. 2019: 0.88 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 30.2 IP 2018: 2.28 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 27.2 IP What’s to Like? Everybody loves left-handed pitching coming out of their bullpen. Brad Hand is not just a left-handed specialist, he’s tough on both right and left-hand batters. Lefties are hitting .115 off him while righties are only hitting slightly better at .154. Hand reminds me of Taylor Rogers, he’s a left-handed reliever who can be brought in whenever you need outs. Hand is tied the AL lead in saves (20), is the AL leader in FanGraphs’ WAR (1.4) for relievers, is a perfect 20/20 on saves this season, and 2nd in ERA (0.88) for AL relievers. According to Statcast, Hand has an average spin rate of 2,529 RPMs on his four-seam fastball, which is about the same as former Twin Ryan Pressly, and good for about 12th best in the league. Pressly left Minnesota, increased his spin rate and has been very good for the Houston Astros since. A higher spin rate means hitters will have a harder time hitting a fastball as it will have more “life” to it. Hand also was born in Minneapolis and drafted out of Chaska High School, so it would be a nice homecoming. Concerns The largest concern with landing Hand would be the sheer cost to obtain him. With Hand being on a Cleveland Indians team that is not in rebuild mode, the Twins would have to give up more than one top prospect. Add to that fact that Hand is still under team control through 2021, and you have one of the most expensive targets the Twins could consider. Another concern with Hand would be the number of innings he’s pitched over the last four seasons. Since 2016 Hand has logged 271.1 innings pitched. While he’s not old by any means, there is always concern that a reliever will fall apart with too much use. With Hand being a starter early in his career though, this might not be much of an issue. See Also Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
Taylor Rogers is currently the only left-handed pitcher in the Minnesota Twins bullpen. With the coaching staff embracing analytics and matchups, the team would love to add another southpaw to come out of the pen in any given situation. They could add that lefty arm while also taking something away from division rival Cleveland Indians if they make a play for reliever Brad Hand.Brad Hand, LHP, 29-years-old Cleveland Indians (38-34, 2nd in AL Central) Under team control through 2020, with a team option in 2021. 2019: 0.88 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 30.2 IP 2018: 2.28 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 27.2 IP What’s to Like? Everybody loves left-handed pitching coming out of their bullpen. Brad Hand is not just a left-handed specialist, he’s tough on both right and left-hand batters. Lefties are hitting .115 off him while righties are only hitting slightly better at .154. Hand reminds me of Taylor Rogers, he’s a left-handed reliever who can be brought in whenever you need outs. Hand is tied the AL lead in saves (20), is the AL leader in FanGraphs’ WAR (1.4) for relievers, is a perfect 20/20 on saves this season, and 2nd in ERA (0.88) for AL relievers. According to Statcast, Hand has an average spin rate of 2,529 RPMs on his four-seam fastball, which is about the same as former Twin Ryan Pressly, and good for about 12th best in the league. Pressly left Minnesota, increased his spin rate and has been very good for the Houston Astros since. A higher spin rate means hitters will have a harder time hitting a fastball as it will have more “life” to it. Hand also was born in Minneapolis and drafted out of Chaska High School, so it would be a nice homecoming. Concerns The largest concern with landing Hand would be the sheer cost to obtain him. With Hand being on a Cleveland Indians team that is not in rebuild mode, the Twins would have to give up more than one top prospect. Add to that fact that Hand is still under team control through 2021, and you have one of the most expensive targets the Twins could consider. Another concern with Hand would be the number of innings he’s pitched over the last four seasons. Since 2016 Hand has logged 271.1 innings pitched. While he’s not old by any means, there is always concern that a reliever will fall apart with too much use. With Hand being a starter early in his career though, this might not be much of an issue. See Also Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article -
Potential Twins Bullpen Trade Target: Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland
Matthew Lenz posted an article in Twins
Oliver Perez, LHP, 37-years-old Cleveland Indians ( in AL Central) Vesting option in 2020 for $2.75M if he reaches 55 games in 2019. 2019: 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.15 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 in 20.o IP 2018: 1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 in 32.1 IP What’s to Like? This would be a long shot since teams typically don’t make trades within their division and they’re also competing for a Wild Card spot, but Oliver Perez would be a perfect buy-low candidate as his 4.42 ERA doesn’t look pretty. Perez's peripherals would suggest some progression coming his way as opposing hitters' exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are all below the league average while his K rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) are above the league average, per Statcast. Furthermore, Fangraphs has his FIP in the low threes and his SIERA in the high twos, which gives you an indicator of how poor Cleveland is defensively. Concerns The vesting option will most likely be met, as he’s already at 28 games. That means he’ll be with the team next year, although $2.75M is not much to quabble over. His four seamer, which he throws 14.5 percent of the time, has been the cause of his inflated numbers as batters are slugging 1.071 off the pitch whereas it was literally .000 in 2018, per Statcast. There hasn’t been a drop in velocity so that’s not a concern, but he has thrown the fastball in the strike zone, and more importantly, in the middle of the strike zone more than last year which could be the reason for hitters success. This is an option that should be cheap if they are available but can still effective pieces and an improvement over the bottom half of our bullpen. Also, I’d like to think that pitch location is something that can be overcome with an adjustment in pitch mechanics or different pitch sequencing. See Also Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
John Gant, RHP, 26-years-old St. Louis Cardinals (35-33 in NL Central) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 1.66 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 in 38.0 IP 2018: 3.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.50 4.50 K/9, BB/9 in 114.0 IP (19 games started) What’s to Like? He’s just under 27-years-old and could be with the team for three more years, which could turn out to be pretty valuable if his first 33 innings as a full-time reliever are any indication. With a 1.64 ERA his peripherals would obviously suggest the possibility for negative regression, but Gant has elite stuff that has been fooling hitters all year. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1123405809499680771 Per Statcast, the movement of his changeup (23.9 percent usage), four seamer (23.1 percent), and curveball (11 percent) are all considered top 10 or better in the league. This leaves out his most oft used pitch, the sinker (33.1 percent), against which opposing hitters have a slugging percentage of .301 in 2019. Concerns I don’t mean to be overly optimistic, but there isn’t a lot to be concerned about here since he’s been so good. That said, some things to consider: given his age, contract situation, and success he’ll be more expensive than Oliver Perez and Craig Stammen, the move from the NL to the AL means he would be facing better hitting (primarily a DH instead of a pinch hitter), and as he gains more innings, hitters will have more of a scouting report on him. The concerns are really grasping at straws here. Gant would be a phenomenal add to our bullpen and would probably fit right into an eighth-inning role. See Also Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
Potential Twins Bullpen Target: Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox
Jamie Cameron posted an article in Twins
Alex Colome, RHP, 30-years-old Chicago White Sox (31-34, 3rd in NL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2020. 2019: 2.39 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 8.20 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 in 26.1 IP 2018: 3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.53 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 68.0 IP Since his full-time switch into the Rays bullpen in 2016, Alex Colome has been a model of consistency at the backend of games for Tampa Bay and Seattle. In Colome, the Twins would be trading for an established closer. The White Sox acquired Colome from Seattle in exchange for Omar Narvaez in November of 2018, a very reasonable price for a high-end bullpen arm (although It should be noted that Narvaez is having a career year at the plate thus far in 2019, having amassed a 1.4 fWAR through his first 58 games played). Colome is earning around $7.3 million in 2019, and is under team control for one more full season in 2020 through arbitration (his age 31 season). What’s to Like? Colome has continued to put up excellent numbers for the White Sox in 2019. He is essentially a two pitch pitcher, featuring a four seam fastball and a cutter he throws at approximately a 40-60 ratio. Colome’s fastball tops out at around 94-95 mph range. Over the last 3 years only Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Wade Davis have saved more games. This is in spite of Colome occupying a setup role to Edwin Diaz for Seattle for part of the 2018 season. Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Colome may be due for a regression in the near future. His fastball is down over one mph on average in 2019 (that’s an especially big deal if you only throw two pitches). Additionally, Colome has benefited from a .117 BABIP (compared to a career figure of .279). Colome’s K/9 has dropped sharply, although this figure has varied widely in his strong 4 year run between 7.8-11.2 K/9. Colome has also seen about a 10% drop in GB%, a sharp uptick in HR/9, and his FIP (4.22) and xFIP (4.59) belie his sparkling 2.39 ERA. Perhaps most alarmingly, Colome has gone from allowing approximately 4% of the pitchers opposing hitters contact to be barreled, to 14.1% in 2019, which is a figure in the bottom 2% of the league. Colome might be a solid add for a contending team in 2019, but the Twins should stay well away. See Also Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target -
Seth Lugo, RHP, 29-years-old New York Mets (33-34 in NL East) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 2.51 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.69 K/9, 1.59 BB/9 in 32.1 IP 2018: 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 in 101.1 IP (5 games started) What’s to Like? Lugo is a good, not great, reliever that would fit in nicely as a bridge between the starters and eighth or ninth inning guys and could come at a relatively cheap cost. That said, he has effectively pitched a majority of the games in the eighth inning for the Met, so the potential is there for him to come in during a high leverage situation. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/888108750027898880 He is right around league average in his K rate, hard hit rate and xwOBA, and has been very good at limiting free passes as a reliever. As laid out in this article, he also has reverse splits by dominating lefties this year which is something the Twins bullpen is in need of. Concerns Being eligible for arbitration makes him more valuable, and more expensive, than if he were a half year rental. That said, that could also benefit the Twins if he does well. The biggest area of concern would be Lugo’s strand rate with runners in scoring position. Per FanGraphs, he has a 69.4 percent strand rate overall which includes an 80.0 percent rate in “high leverage” situations and just a 9.4 percent (!!!!) rate with men in scoring position. With men in scoring position, his K/9 stays about the same (11.81) but his BB/9 more than doubles (5.06). This could indicate that, with runners on, Lugo is dancing around the strike zone a little more trying to miss bats and get hitters to chase. Something a simple change in philosophy could cure in a matter of no time. Regardless of the concerns, I do think this is one of the better, cheaper options for the Twins to pursue. See Also Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
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