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Most of the key free agents have signed, but the Twins have finally started to add to the bullpen. With this being the only obvious roster battle raging this spring, it’s worth checking in on how the bullpen could be shaken up at the last minute. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today With not a single reliever added in free agency for the bulk of the offseason, it appeared the Twins were content trusting their internal options for the bullpen on Opening Day. Things have changed, and the Twins have set the stage for a shakeup in the bullpen, at least at the bottom of the depth chart. On February 26, the Twins made a pair of prospective additions to the bullpen. In claiming Dennis Santana off of waivers and signing Jeff Hoffman to a minor-league deal with opt outs, the Twins added a pair of intriguing relief arms to fight for low-leverage bullpen spots. Each is interesting in their own way. Dennis Santana has bounced around quite a bit for a 26 year old. He does enough well to warrant MLB teams giving him a shot, but has enough warts to have not yet found a long term home. His slider is his primary pitch, and for good reason. The pitch not only allowed an exit velocity of under 85, its 41% whiff rate is dominant. His sinker gets crushed despite sitting in the high 90s and he walks a few too many hitters, but his .7 Wins Above Replacement would put him square in the middle of the Twins 2022 bullpen. It’s easy to see why the Twins would gamble on Santana finally putting it all together. Jeff Hoffman has never really found success in the MLB but features a high spin fastball and a slider/changeup repertoire to help equalize left and right handed hitters. He similarly walks too many, but based on the raw data on his pitch mix, it’s surprising that he’s never put it all together. He has several opt outs if not added to the MLB roster by certain dates, but can be stashed in Triple-A for a brief period. The bar to clear for pitchers like Hoffman or Santana to stick with the team on Opening Day likely aren’t high. For starters, the Twins have shown that depth is their number one priority this offseason. So much so that they want MLB caliber players stashed away in Triple-A if possible. The current bullpen includes Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill, both of whom have minor league options. It’s possible that regardless of the incumbent’s performances, Hoffman and/or Santana could make the Opening Day roster if they look at all like competent relievers this spring. This would allow the Twins to have options ready to go in Triple-A with MLB experience in the event that things go south early. Further complicating things is Ronny Henriquez arriving at camp with some troubling arm pain. Though the Twins claimed no young starters would begin the year in the bullpen, Henriquez was a likely candidate to make the switch in 2023 at some point. If his ability to be on the field is at all in question, it makes sense for the Twins to further insulate their bullpen with viable options in Triple-A. The easiest way to do so would be for Megill or Moran to start the year in St. Paul. Spring Training performances should be taken with a grain of salt, but they matter more for some players than others. On Sunday Trevor Megill went out and pitched about as poorly as possible on the same day the Twins added two of his possible replacements. He struggled to throw strikes, and when he did they were crushed. After getting one out on 33 pitches, Megill allowed three walks, three hits, two homers and six runs. If the door to utilize his remaining minor league option was already open, he likely cracked it just a bit more. Megill already finished 2022 on a poor note as he struggled to reign in his new slider. He’ll have to bounce back in his next few spring outings in order to not make the Twins decision too easy. The odds of a bullpen shakeup have likely increased more than we may have anticipated as the Twins spent most of the winter ignoring the reliever market. With another 40 man roster spot to play with, it’s possible they even make another move to bring in more competition for the bottom of the bullpen pecking order. Either way, there are now a couple more names to keep an eye on this spring, and it’ll be interesting to see who ultimately wins the few jobs that are up for grabs. Please share your thoughts on the Twins bullpen options in the COMMENTS below. View full article

CLEARWATER, FL–Rocco Baldelli and a collection of Twins players made the two-hour trip from Fort Myers to Clearwater on Sunday to face the defending National League champion Phillies. Having arrived in Florida over the weekend, I too made the road trip and watched from the stands. Here are five takeaways that stuck with me on the long drive back. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring. His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark. 1: My first impressions of the pitch clock The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. To me it seemed like ... not a big deal? It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact). I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with. Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup. Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well. 3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways. Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two. For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game. 4: Big bases come in handy The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday. Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last. 5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly. Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one. View full article

The Twins bullpen is mostly set for the start of the upcoming season. Should they roll with what they have, or make one last addition by bringing home a native Minnesotan for that last spot? Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt? Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard. The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen. Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. View full article

Once again the Twins have essentially foregone any bullpen upgrades this offseason. With young arms hopefully nearing, this choice could turn out to be justified. One low profile reliever could factor into the equation too. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today Trevor Megill could be called a relative success when compared to the other acquisitions the Twins made to the 2022 bullpen. Megill debuted with the Cubs in 2021 but was DFAd after the season. The Twins claimed him and soon after they DFAd him and he was outrighted to Triple-A. Megill found his way onto the roster in late May. He returned to the Saints for one appearance in early July but was able to stick with the big-league club for the remainder of the season. He may remain there as we head into the 2023 campaign. Megill threw 45 innings with a 4.80 ERA. He struck out over a batter per inning, kept walks to a respectable level and was incredibly stingy in the longball department. This led to FIP and xFIP painting the picture of a mid to low 3s ERA reliever, even if xERA disagreed. Averaging 98 mph on the fastball, the raw stuff alone was probably enough to justify Megill remaining in a low-leverage role throughout the season. After bouncing around a few organizations with little MLB experience, some may assume that at 28, Megill may not have much development left. But what if they were wrong? For much of the season, Megill was a two-pitch pitcher. Plenty of relievers get by on a limited repertoire, but typically one of their pitches are an equalizer against same-handed hitters. Megill, who threw almost exclusively a high 90s fastball and a big overhand curve, didn’t have such a repertoire. In fact, Megill performed significantly better against left-handed hitters than right. His strikeout-to-walk rate was three times higher against lefties than righties. His OPS against was nearly .150 points lower. He was actually more of a lefty specialist, and a dominant one at that. Still though, there isn’t much reason that Megill shouldn’t be getting right-handed hitters out consistently. The Twins undoubtedly took note of this along the way, as Megill started throwing a pitch that was classified as a slider in August around 27% of the time, and this became his second-most used pitch for the final two months of the season. It’s easy to assume that the Twins were trying to provide Megill with a pitch to match up better against right-handed hitters, as any kind of improvement in that department would have raised Megill’s game to a whole new level. Their midseason attempt to make an adjustment doesn’t show up well on paper with Megill posting his worst two months of the season with this new pitch, but it’s likely been a focal point of his offseason and could have much better results come spring. Another issue with Megill is that for all of the spin and velocity he gets on his fastball, it’s one of his most-hittable pitches. Opponents hit nearly .300 on the pitch, and while they didn’t slug well against it, the expected numbers say Megill got lucky. Looking at where he threw his heater gives an obvious answer as to what’s going on here. Averaging 98 mph is a huge plus for Megill, but the days of even a triple-digit fastball overpowering lineups are gone. Hitters were bound to get around on it every so often, and when they did, the fastball was often right where they could drive it. We’ve seen the Twins fix this with pitchers such as Tyler Duffey. Dropping the fastball at the top of the zone consistently keeps it out of the danger zone and allows it to play up a few miles per hour. It worked with Tyler Duffey working low-to-mid 90s. For Megill, it may make the pitch unhittable if he has the command to make a change. It’s possible that Megill remains the low-leverage middle reliever he was in 2022. The fact that he remains on the roster, and the Twins didn’t push hard to replace him, however, hopefully means that they have hopes that he has more ceiling to reach and a plan to get him there. They began the process midseason in 2022 but with a full offseason to develop a new pitch, Megill could wind up with a devastating pitch to pair with his high-octane fastball against right-handed hitters. In 2023, Trevor Megill could factor into the bullpen mix in a surprisingly big way. Do you agree? View full article

He was the only player the Twins acquired at the trade deadline that was effective. He's also still a free agent, but he is not without red flags. Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere View full article

In a four-hour marathon, the Yankees walked off the Twins in 12 innings at the Bronx. Louie Varland had a lovely big-league debut, but the bullpen relinquished the lead twice. Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland, 5 1/3 IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 7K (80 pitches, 55 strikes, 68.8%) Home Runs: Jose Miranda (14) Bottom 3 WPA: Trevor Megill (-.570), Griffin Jax (-.254), Gio Urshela (-.201) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Varland is sharp in his major league debut (pulled too early?) There probably isn’t a much tougher way to start your major league career than the one Louie Varland had to. Called up for the first time on Tuesday, the St. Paul native had been the most anticipated Twins prospect since… what? Byron Buxton? Some might go even a little further and say… Joe Mauer? Either way, the amount of expectation this kid had to burden was enormous. Then, you look at all the elements surrounding today’s game. The Twins have been constantly crushed by the New York Yankees for the past two decades; they have been Minnesota’s perennial foes in the postseason in that same span; they haven’t lost a single series against the Twins since 2018, and not one at home since 2014. The list goes on. This game, in particular, is even more crucial short-term, as the Twins started the day a game and a half back from the Guardians for the division first place. Not being competitive in this Bronx series could be the end of the season for the Twins. Is that pressure enough for the 24-year-old Minnesotan? Before Varland even stepped on the Yankee Stadium mound, the offense made a good effort to relieve some of the pressure and perhaps calm him down. Luis Arraez jumped on the game’s second pitch and doubled against starter Domingo German. After a Carlos Correa strikeout, José Miranda hit a laser to the deep left corner for a home run, making it 2-0 Twins early. Whether or not the run support made a difference for Varland at that point, making him less nervous, we’ll never know. But the fact is that he had a nearly perfect first time through the order to begin his big-league career, retiring the first eight batters he faced. He also struck out three of those batters, including American League MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge for his first-ever MLB strikeout. That’s a heck of a greeting card. Varland’s first hit given up was an Oswald Peraza two-out double in the third, but he responded to that with an inning-ending groundout, his third of the game. Then, the offense came through for him again with some more run support. In the top of the fourth, Germán got two quick outs, but the bottom third of Minnesota’s lineup did some two-out damage. Jake Cave, Gary Sanchez, and Gilberto Celestino hit three consecutive singles, and, with that, another run scored, making it 3-0 Twins. The Yankees responded quickly, though, with Judge getting back at Varland in the bottom of the same inning with a leadoff home run, cutting the Twins’ lead to two. Varland displayed some impressive nerves after that, retiring batters three through five of the Yankee lineup, including back-to-back strikeouts following the Judge home run. Varland pitched into the sixth, facing two batters: he lost Peraza for a leadoff single but came back to strike out Oswaldo Cabrera. Before he could face Judge (the tying run) a third time in this game, Rocco Baldelli decided to call it a game for him. Griffin Jax was brought in, and he got Judge to pop out for the second out, but before he could finish the inning, Gleyber Torres hit a two-run home run that tied the game. Baldelli’s decision to pull Varland when he did cause mixed feelings throughout Twins Twitter. Twins Daily’s writers Nick Nelson and Seth Stohs, for example, had opposing views of Baldelli’s call (here and here). Do you think Varland should’ve stayed to face Judge and Torres? Use the comment section to give your opinion. Bats quiet down, bullpen trio takes the game into extras The Twins’ offense couldn’t bother the Yankees again for the better part of the game, with the only exception coming during the eighth inning. Miranda snapped an 0-for-9 skid with a one-out single, and Nick Gordon followed him up with a single of his own, posing the first Minnesota threat since the fourth inning. Unfortunately for the Twins, both runners ended up being stranded. Fortunately for them, though, the bullpen did a fine job maintaining this a tied game for the remainder of regulation. After Jax blew the lead in the sixth, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, and Jhoan Duran did a fantastic job preventing New York from scoring. With Duran pitching in the ninth, Sánchez made a huge play catching Tim Locastro trying to steal second with a laser throw for the second out that Jermaine Palacios somehow caught and kept the tag on as Locastro came off the base. Then, after Isiah Kiner-Falefa singled and reached third with a steal and a throwing error, Correa ended the inning with a crucial defensive move. Celestino puts the Twins ahead, but the Yankees tie it, walk it off With Celestino starting the 10th inning at second base, Arráez hit a single to shallow right, and the outfielder was waved around. However, he hesitated a bit heading from third to home and was caught by catcher Jose Trevino with plenty of time. Duran pitched a scoreless 10th, and the game headed for the 11th. After the offense went down in order in the top of the inning, the Yankees loaded the bases in the bottom after an intentional walk to Judge and a walk to Torres. A beautiful 3-2-3 double play prevented the winning run from scoring and paved the way for another inning. Came the 12th inning, the Twins put some pressure on reliever Ron Marinaccio, with Cave drawing a leadoff walk. With a Sánchez strikeout, New York had a double play in order, but Celestino had other plans. He hit a sharp groundball to right, deep enough to score ghost runner Jermaine Palacios from second, snatching the lead back for the Twins. Arráez drew a walk to load the bases before the inning was done, but Correa and Miranda couldn’t take advantage. That lead didn’t last long, though. Kiner-Falefa hit a ground ball off Trevor Megill to lead off the bottom of the 12th, and former Twin Marwin Gonzalez scored from second. Trevino then hit a one-out single that sent Kiner-Falefa to third and, despite getting Peraza to fly out for the second out, Megill couldn’t retire Cabrera, who hit a grounder to short, past a diving Gordon, to bring Kiner-Falefa home and end the game. What’s Next? Game two of the doubleheader is about to start with Joe Ryan (3.88 ERA) on the mound for Minnesota and Gerrit Cole (3.28 ERA) starting for the Yankees. Currently, Minnesota still has the chance to split the series, as both teams are back on the field tomorrow for game four of the series. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Sanchez 70 0 0 0 0 70 Duran 0 20 0 0 28 48 Megill 0 0 27 0 20 47 Fulmer 0 14 0 0 16 30 Thielbar 0 15 0 0 11 26 Pagán 0 0 22 0 0 22 Jax 0 8 0 0 12 20 López 0 0 0 0 15 15 Davis 0 0 11 0 0 11 Moran 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Creating favorable matchups is the key to successful bullpen management. Can we get our best southpaw lined up against their left-handed hitters? Which pitchers can be trusted to face both left- and right-handed hitters? Analyzing the platoon splits of each of the bullpen arms will help answer those questions. The graph above plots the platoon splits for each member of the Twins bullpen. OPS against vs. right-handed batters is on the x-axis, so points further to the left are successful against right-handed batters. OPS against vs. left-handed batters is on the y-axis, so points further toward the bottom are successful against left-handed batters. Points closest to the diagonal line are equally effective (or ineffective) against both types of batters. A few takeaways: Caleb Thielbar is on fire. Among relievers, he is at the 88th percentile for strikeout rate 98th percentile for exit velocity. Does that call for a promotion to a bigger role where he faces more right-handed batters? Perhaps. Right-handed batters own an OPS below 0.700 against Thielbar. In fact, his OPS against opposite-sided batters is better than that of Jorge López, who allows a 0.711 OPS to left-handed hitters. And nobody would call López a specialist against right-handed batters. The Twins deadline acquisitions, López and Fulmer, are death to righties allowing a 0.471 and 0.438 OPS respectively. Fulmer, however, is an absolute liability against lefties, allowing an 0.830 OPS to opposite-sided hitters. He meets the definition of a specialist. Emilio Pagan has insane reverse splits, with righties boasting a debilitating 1.075 OPS against. Pagán has never had significant reverse splits in prior seasons, so that may be an anomaly. But with the way things are going for Pagán, who's to say? Jhoan Duran, Trevor Megill, and Griffin Jax all appear to be matchup independent. And Megill's splits so closely mirroring Duran's suggest he deserves to keep getting chances View full article

The Twins dropped the opener of their two game series against the Brewers 6-3. Josh Winder struggled, the offense had little to offer, and three rain delays piled on the misery. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Josh Winder 5.0 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO, 2 HR (85 pitches, 55 strikes) Homeruns: Jorge Polanco (13) Bottom 3 WPA: Josh Winder -.349, Gio Urshela -.169, Byron Buxton -.100 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) On Tuesday evening, after an off day, the Twins opened a two-game series against the Brewers, as part of a six-game homestand leading into the All-Star break. Here’s how the Twins lined up behind Josh Winder. Josh Winder, coming off a strong performance last time out, was looking to help the Twins rotation get back on track after significant recent struggles. In the top of the first inning, Andrew McCutchen drilled a two-run home run into the flower boxes in right field, giving the Brewers an early 2-0 lead. Brewers starting pitcher Jason Alexander hardly looked impressive to begin the game, almost beginning the game with back to back walks but being bailed out by some poor Twins at bats. In the second inning, the Twins cut the lead to one, with a solo shot to right field from Jorge Polanco, who has been incandescent since returning from the IL. Rain was the other significant factor early in the game Both of Gio Urshela’s first two at-bats were interrupted for the first two rain delays of the game, in the second and fourth inning respectively. After returning from the second rain delay, Winder ran into trouble. He walked Jace Peterson to lead off the inning, before a Jonathan Davis single scored Peterson from second. Willy Adames then hit his 18th home run of the year, a two run shot, to increase the lead to 5-2. It was a poor inning from Winder to cap what has been a desperate stretch from the rotation. Therein lies the frustration of the 2022 Twins at the moment. One phase of the team always seems to be struggling. After Carlos Correa hit into a double play to quickly cancel out a Luis Arraez walk in the bottom of the fifth inning, the game went into its third rain delay. After a 66 minute break, the teams resumed in the top of the sixth inning, with Trevor Megill relieving Josh Winder. Andrew McCutchen led off with a single before a throwing error from Megill on a pickoff attempt moved him to second base. Megill then threw a middle-middle fastball to Jace Peterson, who singled, extending the lead to 6-2. The Twins had a rally going in the sixth inning, with a two out walk to Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff getting grazed by a pitch. Kyle Garlick pinch-hit for Nick Gordon and was hit to load the bases. Gio Urshela grounded to short to end the threat and keep the lead 6-2. Megill and Jovani Moran combined for a scoreless seventh inning. The Twins clawed a run back in the bottom of the seventh. Luis Arraez just missed a home run to right center field, settling for a double. After a Carlos Correa single and a Byron Buxton fielders choice, the score was trimmed to 6-3 in favor of the Brewers. Moran added a scoreless eight inning before the Brewers bullpen heavy hitters went to work. Devin Williams entered the game and made the Twins look silly, inducing two weak groundouts and striking out Kyle Garlick in the eighth. Josh Hader entered the game in the ninth and that was the game. The loss drops the Twins to 48-41. Cleveland and Chicago split a double header. The Twins lead the AL Central by 3.5 games over Cleveland and 5 over the White Sox. Bullpen Usage Chart THU FRI SAT SUN TUE TOT Duffey 0 0 26 21 0 47 Megill 0 0 22 0 24 46 Cotton 0 42 0 0 0 42 Thielbar 0 13 0 23 0 36 Duran 0 0 14 16 0 30 Jax 0 0 15 11 0 26 Pagan 0 10 0 0 13 23 Moran 0 0 0 0 22 22 Next Up On Wednesday, the Twins will conclude their series against the Brewers. Joe Ryan goes for Minnesota against Aaron Ashby for Milwaukee. First pitch is 12:10 CT. Postgame Interviews - Coming Soon View full article

The game went back-and-forth a few times. On Friday night, the Rangers used a six-run inning to get the win. On Saturday afternoon, the Twins had a six-run inning, but that proved to not be enough. Box Score SP: Devin Smeltzer: 3 1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K (81 pitches, 50 strikes (61.7%)) Home Runs: Jose Miranda (7), Gary Sanchez (10), Bottom 3 WPA: Devin Smeltzer (-.667), Jhoan Duran (-.330), Nick Gordon (-.174) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Early Slugfest If you would have been asked before the game started what kind of game you would have expected on Saturday, this is probably what you would have assumed. Two powerful lineups that hit a lot of home runs, and a couple of lefties that the other team is familiar with. After a scoreless first inning, Devin Smeltzer gave up a three-run homer to same-sider Kole Calhoun. However, in the top of the fourth frame, the Twins put together a big inning. With Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco on base, Jose Miranda launched a long, three-run shot to tie the game at three. Gio Urshela followed with a single, and Gary Sanchez gave the Twins a 5-3 lead with a big, two-run, opposite-field homer. Nick Gordon was hit by a pitch which brought a slumping Byron Buxton to the plate. Buxton launched a ball to right-center field that was thisclose to a home run. The double scored Gordon to make the lead 6-3. Given a lead, Smeltzer was unable to hold it. In the bottom of the fourth inning, he got the first batter out, but then a single from Leody Taveras and a line-shot double by Charlie Culberson put runners on second and third. Marcus Semien crushed a three-run homer to tie the game. One batter later, Corey Seager hit one out over the fencing in right-center field. That was the end of the day for Smeltzer, the Twins now behind 7-6. It wasn’t a pretty day for starting-pitcher line scores, but Perez was then able to throw two quick, scoreless innings and complete six innings without any further damage. Big, Not So Bad, Bullpen! I remember thinking it, and typing it above, when it was 7-6 after four innings. Glen Perkins said it on the Bally Sports North broadcast. To paraphrase, “I certainly don’t think that this game will end 7-6.” The assumption was that it was going to be a long game with a ton of runs scored. Instead, the Twins bullpen came on and did a very nice job. (Hey, if we’re going to bash them every time things go bad, we need to praise them on the strong days.) Griffin Jax came on and got the final two outs of the fourth inning. Tyler Duffey came on for the ninth straight time, he gave up zero runs. Over that stretch, he has worked 12 innings and given up nine hits, walked three and struck out 11 batters. The last time Duffey gave up a run was June 12th against the Rays. Trevor Megill had a quick, two-strikeout sixth inning which earned him a second inning. In the seventh frame, he got two slow ground outs before a strikeout to end the inning. Jovani Moran was warming up in the top of the eighth inning when the team was down 7-6, but when Gilberto Celestino’s ground out scored Luis Arraez to tie the game at 7-7, Jhoan Duran came in for the eighth inning. But Then… Of course, Duran has been the Twins’ best reliever pretty much all season, a guy who could hear his name called as an All Star on Sunday. But he did not have his best appearance. Light-hitting Leodys Taveras was late on two fastballs, so they threw a third straight fastball and he slapped the 0-2 pitch to left field for a single (while the Twins shifted him inexplicably to pull). After Josh Smith sacrificed him to second, Marcus Semien came to the plate. Duran hung a slider for him and Semien crushed a liner to left. What should have been a single, hit so hard it likely would not have scored a run, turned into a triple when Nick Gordon dove for the ball and it got by him. Corey Seager was intentionally walked, but #OldFriend Mitch Garver came through again. He was badly jammed by a Duran fastball but muscled a blooper into center field for an RBI single. Fortunately, Adolis Garcia grounded into a double play to end the inning. What’s Next? The Twins will finish their series in Texas with a 1:35 game against the Rangers. They are off on Monday before starting a quick two-game series at Target Field against the Brewers. Back to Sunday, the Twins will send righty Dylan Bundy to the mound. He is 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA on the season. However, over his past four starts, he is 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA. He’s allowed five earned runs on 17 hits and four walks in 24 innings. Those performances came against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Guardians and White Sox. So, it will be interesting to see how he looks against the potent, powerful Ranger lineup. Texas will counter with right-hander Dane Dunning. The former Nationals first-round pick has been traded in a couple of significant deals. In 2016, about six months after the draft, he was traded to the White Sox in a deal for Adam Eaton. Then after the 2020 season, he was dealt to the Rangers in the Lance Lynn trade. This will be his league-leading 18th start of the season. He is 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. In 93 1/3 innings, he walked 33 and struck out 82. He also leads the league with eight hit batters. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Cotton 21 0 0 42 0 63 Megill 2 22 0 0 22 46 Duffey 18 0 0 0 26 44 Pagán 0 23 0 10 0 33 Thielbar 11 8 0 13 0 32 Jax 0 17 0 0 15 32 Duran 0 9 0 0 14 23 Moran 0 8 0 0 0 8 View full article

The Minnesota Twins had a rerun. For the second straight game, they came out flat against the O's starter and for the second straight game they walked off Jorge López. View full video

A few bad breaks on the bump and a dry spell at the plate plagued the Twins in a 5-0 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday night in Seattle. Here's what you need to know about game two of the series. Box Score SP: Joe Ryan: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (75 pitches, 45 strikes (60%)) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-0.181), Max Kepler (-0.176), Luis Arraez (-0.071) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Making his first start since May 21, Joe Ryan hoped to mow down the Mariners in a late-night game on the west coast. A pair of middle-inning mistakes and lack of run support stopped that from happening. The Twins managed a meager four hits and were 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position in a shutout loss to Seattle in Ryan's return. Ryan had moments of brilliance early on and was far from bad, but paid for a pair of poor pitches in the fourth and fifth innings. After 3 1/3 scoreless innings, the Mariners were able to get to Ryan. Following a double by Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez launched a 3-1 pitch over the left-field wall to put the Mariners up 2-0. Just an inning later, Ty France put a ball over the left-field wall to double Seattle's lead and end Ryan's night. All in all, Ryan's night was not as bad as the final score may indicate. The star rookie did an excellent job pounding the zone throughout the night, pitching to contact with an occasional strikeout. His only major blunders came on a few poor pitches in the fourth, ultimately leading to the Mariners' first four runs. Despite his velocity being down, expect Joe Cool to come back hot in his next outing as he eases his way back into the rotation as the team's ace. Trevor Megill was rock solid in relief, pitching 1 1/3 scoreless innings with a walk and a strikeout. It's his second consecutive scoreless appearance and Megill has only allowed two runs through four outings in the month of June. Jovani Moran followed Megill in the bullpen and pitched two innings of one-run ball with two strikeouts and a walk. After struggling to find the zone in the seventh Moran locked in and pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning. Celestino Hits on Anniversary Despite the loss, center-fielder Gilberto Celestino tallied a multi-hit game on the one-year anniversary of his first MLB home run (which he hit off Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales at T-Mobile Park). Celestino punched singles in the third and sixth innings and is now hitting .333 on the season. For a fourth outfielder that sees a fair amount of action due to Byron Buxton's frequency at DH, the 23-year-old has gone above and behind. Carlos Correa also notched a multi-hit game, singling in the fourth and sixth inning. Correa has hit safely in all six games that he's played in June and is now hitting .309 on the season. What’s Next? The Twins square off against the Mariners in the series finale tomorrow afternoon at 3:10 pm CST. After returning from the IL, Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.41 ERA) will make his first start since May 29, squaring off against LHP Marco Gonzales (3-6, 3.63 ERA). Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Just hours after pitching in a win against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Minnesota Twins designated starting pitcher Chi Chi Gonzales for assignment. 48 hours later the Milwaukee Brewers selected the veteran righty's contract. Here's why the Twins made the move and why the 30-year-old could be valuable for the ballclub on the other side of the river. After just two Major League starts in a Minnesota Twins uniform, veteran pitcher Chi Chi González is out the door and headed to The Badger State to pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers. Just minutes after his June 11 start against the Rays, the Twins designated González for assignment. Just two days later, the struggling Brewers signed Gonzalez off of waivers and elevated the right-handed pitcher to the 40-man roster. Gonzalez's tenure in the Twins organization was short, and at times, sweet. Signed to a minor-league contract in March, González pitched eight games for Triple-A St. Paul (five starts) along with two starting pitching appearances for the Twins. There were moments of brilliance for González in St. Paul, finishing his Saints tenure with a 2-2 record and 3.44 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. Starting the season in the bullpen, González notched both his wins as a long-distance reliever in April with solid appearances against Louisville (4 2/3 innings) and Indianapolis (3 innings). From there he started five games for the Saints, highlighted by a six-inning, no-hit shutout with seven strikeouts and four walks against Columbus on May 11. First called up on June 3 due to a myriad of injuries at the parent club, González tossed three innings of three-run, four-hit ball against the Blue Jays en route to a 9-3 Twins win. Called up under similar circumstances last week, González pitched four innings against the Rays on Friday, giving up three runs on eight hits while striking out three. Minnesota won the game 6-5 and Trevor Megill earned the win for the Twins. So that is correct, the Twins were 2-0 in games started by Chi Chi Gonzalez. The Twins did win both games (against talented opponents) in the pair of games that González started. However, it was not solely because of him. González tabbed a -0.18 WPA (Win Probability Added) in his most recent start and -0.15 WPA in his Twins debut against the Blue Jays; not great. The brutal reality is that there is no space for González on a semi-healthy Minnesota Twins roster. Given his experience, González served as an adequate filler for a starting rotation that has struggled with injuries to five of its six starting pitchers. Yet with Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray back on the bump, the filler role has been eliminated and González's minor league numbers aren't consistent enough to create a need for the Twins. Consider the roster crunch that's about to happen. Last week, the Twins DFAd Gonzalez and Juan Minaya. A day after adding Elliot Soto to the 40-man roster, he was DFAd to add Joe Ryan back to the roster. Someone will have to be optioned or DFAd to bring Sonny Gray off of the Injured List on Wednesday. The life of the journeyman is certainly not always easy. Yet when one door closes, another may open. The Brewers are 2-8 in their last ten games and starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta are on the Injured List along with a number of relievers. With experience as a starting pitcher as well as a reliever, González could serve as a valuable patch for a Milwaukee club that is in a tight battle with St. Louis for top dog in the NL Central. Noted as a great person and clubhouse guy, hopefully, this new opportunity presents González the chance to find his groove in a cutthroat industry that is less than forgiving. View full article

It is no secret that the Twins' bullpen options are not all trustworthy, as we saw Sunday and Tuesday with Tyler Duffey. Could Trevor Megill be one reliever that the Twins could use in bigger situations and become more comfortable using? The Twins’ bullpen has been better than average this year. As a collective unit, they rank seventh in MLB in bullpen WPA with 1.55 wins added. However, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Smith have combined for 3.06 wins added. The rest of the Twins’ bullpen has been worth -1.51 wins. This is primarily due to Tyler Duffey, who has a WPA of -1.32, which is fifth-worst among all major league relievers in 2022. In the major leagues, you can’t just throw the same three bullpen arms every night, so the Twins need to find another bullpen arm that they could use in high leverage situations. Enter Trevor Megill. Megill, who the Twins signed on a minor league deal right before the lockout, has been good in limited innings this year in the bullpen. In ten and ⅔ innings, Megill has only allowed three earned runs on eight hits and four walks. He has struck out 13 hitters, seven with the fastball and six with the curveball. Megill has some of the best stuff on the Twins, and there is data to back that up. Megill’s fastball averages 97.1 miles per hour, which places him in the 95th percentile of all major league pitchers. His fastball also has incredible spin, as his fastball spin rate is 2424 revolutions per minute, which places him in the 91st percentile of all pitchers. Using Pitch Profiler, a tool created by Jeremy Maschino, you can view any major league pitcher and various statistics about their pitch mix. One important metric that many people are starting to use to evaluate a pitcher’s repertoire is Stuff+. Stuff+ gives a pitcher a rating of how good a pitcher’s repertoire is compared to the rest of the league. This rating is based on a variety of things such as pitch velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, arm angle, and release extension. Megill has a Stuff+ rating of 108, putting him in the 78th percentile of all major league pitchers. The average Stuff+ rating is 100, which means Megill’s stuff is eight percent better than the league average. Using Maschino’s tool, Megill’s stuff+ rating on his fastball is 108, meaning he has an above league average fastball in terms of velocity and movement. Megill’s curveball is also an outstanding pitch. According to Baseball Savant, Megill’s curveball has seven more inches of vertical movement than the league average curveball does, good for tenth among all major league pitchers who have thrown at least 50 curveballs. According to Pitch Profiler, Megill’s curveball has a 107 stuff+ rating, which means he has two pitches above league average. A pitcher’s stuff can only take him so far. A pitcher can have good stuff and fail to get outs. Take former Twin Brusdar Graterol, who has a stuff+ rating of 116, in the 95th percentile of all pitchers. His sinker is 99.9 miles per hour, second among all pitchers. However, this doesn’t lead to success, as Graterol has a 4.81 ERA and 3.84 FIP. In Megill’s limited opportunities, he has allowed only three runs in ten and ⅔ innings for an ERA of 2.53, as I noted earlier. Sometimes a pitcher’s success in small samples can be due to luck, but not with Megill. This year, his expected ERA is 2.04, which is the fourteenth-best in the league among pitchers who have allowed at least 25 balls in play. On his fastball, Megill has allowed an expected opponent batting average of .153, which is the best on the Twins. On the curveball, he has allowed a minuscule expected batting average of .196. Between having well above league-average stuff and producing very well in the opportunities he has been given, Trevor Megill should be given more opportunities in high leverage situations here soon, especially as the Twins start to play a more challenging schedule. What other relievers should be given big innings down the stretch? How do you feel about Trevor Megill? Leave a comment or any other questions you may have below, and feel free to start a discussion. Thank you for reading, and Go Twins! View full article