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Some of you might remember during that great postseason run by the 2017 Astros, one piece that wasn’t firing for them was the backend of their bullpen. A big part of this was due to the fall of Ken Giles, who was rocked for 10 runs on 12 hits and five walks in 7 2/3 innings pitched in the 2017 postseason. Those struggles carried over into 2018, and led to the Astros decision to demote him to AAA before ultimately trading him to the Blue Jays in part of the package that sent Roberto Osuna to the Astros. Giles didn’t have a lot more success with the Blue Jays than he did the Astros, and finished 2018 with a 4.65 ERA. However, it wasn’t all bad in 2018, as Giles did have a much better 3.08 FIP, that was aided in part by his extremely low walk rate of just 3.3 percent. Now in 2019, Ken Giles seems to have regained the form that helped him become the dominant backend of the bullpen reliever that he was during his first four seasons as a big leaguer. Among qualified relievers, only Ryan Pressly, Brad Hand, and Shane Greene have a better ERA this season than Giles’ 1.08. Some of the more in-depth metrics support that this is the real Ken Giles, and that 2018 was more of a fluke/bad luck season. In addition to his 1.08 ERA, Giles sports a 1.17 FIP, which is topped by only Kirby Yates’ 1.14 FIP among qualified relievers. If you look at the Statcast metrics over at Baseball Savant, it backs up the case that Giles is back to his dominant form even more. So far this season, Giles has allowed opposing hitters to hit at a .207 clip, compared to his expected batting average allowed of .188. Giles has also been better from an expected wOBA perspective, as Giles .247 wOBA allowed is actually slightly higher than his .243 xwOBA. A big part of Giles' success has come from regaining his ability to strike people out. During his dominant stretch from 2014 to 2017, Giles struck out 33.7 percent of opposing hitters (which ranked 9th among all relievers with at least 100 IP over that time). In 2018, that number fell to just 25 percent. However, in 2019, Giles has gotten his strikeout rate back up to 42.4 percent, which ranks third among qualified relievers this season. A big part of this can be explained by Giles getting back to using his slider more often. Here is a graph showing Giles' slider usage rate over the past few seasons. (Chart via Baseball Savant) As we can see, Giles threw his slider far less often in 2018 than he had been previously, which could help explain his dip in performance. In 2019, Giles’ slider usage is back up to 49 percent, which is the highest rate of his career. It becomes even more clear that this has had an impact when we look at the next chart that shows us just how much better Giles is with his slider than his fastball. (Chart via Baseball Savant) A big part of what makes Ken Giles slider so effective is how often he gets opposing hitters to swing and miss at the pitch. So far this year, opposing hitters are whiffing at 61 percent of Giles' sliders that they swing at. That is the highest rate of any pitcher who has thrown at least 100 breaking balls this season. It is also apparent that Giles started throwing his sinker again in 2018, but he is still rarely using it (under four percent of the time) so I wouldn’t put much stock in that pitch for now. One concern the Twins could have for Giles is regarding his health, as he was placed on the IL last week with elbow inflammation, but he was reinstated onto the active roster on Thursday, so they will have some time to evaluate if he is truly healthy before they are forced to make a decision on him. Giles is currently making $6.3M in his second year of arbitration and will be under team control through the 2020 season if the Twins were to trade for him. If you are wondering what it would take to pry Giles away from the Blue Jays, I assume they will be demanding a package in return that is similar to what the Twins received in the Ryan Pressly trade with the Astros a year ago. See Also Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
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From 2014 through 2017, Ken Giles was one of the most dominant relievers in major league baseball, pitching for both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros. Now pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays, the 28-year-old right-hander might be the perfect addition to the backend of a Twins bullpen that is in need of a shutdown arm or two.Some of you might remember during that great postseason run by the 2017 Astros, one piece that wasn’t firing for them was the backend of their bullpen. A big part of this was due to the fall of Ken Giles, who was rocked for 10 runs on 12 hits and five walks in 7 2/3 innings pitched in the 2017 postseason. Those struggles carried over into 2018, and led to the Astros decision to demote him to AAA before ultimately trading him to the Blue Jays in part of the package that sent Roberto Osuna to the Astros. Giles didn’t have a lot more success with the Blue Jays than he did the Astros, and finished 2018 with a 4.65 ERA. However, it wasn’t all bad in 2018, as Giles did have a much better 3.08 FIP, that was aided in part by his extremely low walk rate of just 3.3 percent. Now in 2019, Ken Giles seems to have regained the form that helped him become the dominant backend of the bullpen reliever that he was during his first four seasons as a big leaguer. Among qualified relievers, only Ryan Pressly, Brad Hand, and Shane Greene have a better ERA this season than Giles’ 1.08. Some of the more in-depth metrics support that this is the real Ken Giles, and that 2018 was more of a fluke/bad luck season. In addition to his 1.08 ERA, Giles sports a 1.17 FIP, which is topped by only Kirby Yates’ 1.14 FIP among qualified relievers. If you look at the Statcast metrics over at Baseball Savant, it backs up the case that Giles is back to his dominant form even more. So far this season, Giles has allowed opposing hitters to hit at a .207 clip, compared to his expected batting average allowed of .188. Giles has also been better from an expected wOBA perspective, as Giles .247 wOBA allowed is actually slightly higher than his .243 xwOBA. A big part of Giles' success has come from regaining his ability to strike people out. During his dominant stretch from 2014 to 2017, Giles struck out 33.7 percent of opposing hitters (which ranked 9th among all relievers with at least 100 IP over that time). In 2018, that number fell to just 25 percent. However, in 2019, Giles has gotten his strikeout rate back up to 42.4 percent, which ranks third among qualified relievers this season. A big part of this can be explained by Giles getting back to using his slider more often. Here is a graph showing Giles' slider usage rate over the past few seasons. Download attachment: Ken Giles Slider Pitch Percent.png (Chart via Baseball Savant) As we can see, Giles threw his slider far less often in 2018 than he had been previously, which could help explain his dip in performance. In 2019, Giles’ slider usage is back up to 49 percent, which is the highest rate of his career. It becomes even more clear that this has had an impact when we look at the next chart that shows us just how much better Giles is with his slider than his fastball. Download attachment: Ken Giles wOBA by Pitch Type.png (Chart via Baseball Savant) A big part of what makes Ken Giles slider so effective is how often he gets opposing hitters to swing and miss at the pitch. So far this year, opposing hitters are whiffing at 61 percent of Giles' sliders that they swing at. That is the highest rate of any pitcher who has thrown at least 100 breaking balls this season. It is also apparent that Giles started throwing his sinker again in 2018, but he is still rarely using it (under four percent of the time) so I wouldn’t put much stock in that pitch for now. One concern the Twins could have for Giles is regarding his health, as he was placed on the IL last week with elbow inflammation, but he was reinstated onto the active roster on Thursday, so they will have some time to evaluate if he is truly healthy before they are forced to make a decision on him. Giles is currently making $6.3M in his second year of arbitration and will be under team control through the 2020 season if the Twins were to trade for him. If you are wondering what it would take to pry Giles away from the Blue Jays, I assume they will be demanding a package in return that is similar to what the Twins received in the Ryan Pressly trade with the Astros a year ago. See Also Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article
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First: What was your favorite Jaime Garcia moment? Was it his one start in a Minnesota Twins uniform? In Oakland? That’s probably it. In fact, we made a sweet memorial video dedicated to him at our Facebook page. Yesterday’s Garcia trade’s return (and any potential incoming players at the deadline) reflects on the new front office’s philosophies. Nick Nelson takes a look at that direction when it comes to the recent acquisition of minor league pitchers. Second: Twins GM Thad Levine joined MLB Network Radio on Sunday to discuss the Garcia trade as well as the team’s status as the deadline approaches. Most reports have Ervin Santana, Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belise and Brian Dozier as players on the table. Here’s what he had to say... https://twitter.com/mlbnetworkradio/status/891686820035129345 "We've got our dance card out. We're waiting for someone to punch it. But still in tire-kicking stage." That’s a weird mix of metaphors. On one hand, the Twins are looking for someone to take them to a dance but they are also looking for a new automobile. At the end of the day, when the music stops, bottom line, when all the cards are on the table, the Twins are hardcore sellers. Seth Stohs, someone who never mixes his metaphors, has created an OFFICIAL TRADE DEADLINE THREAD. Be sure to check back often. Third: The Twins lost in Oakland on Sunday. Once again it was a bullpen problem. This time it was Taylor Rogers coughing up the lead and Tyler Duffey serving up the extra inning loss. For the full rundown on the day’s events, Tom Froemming has you covered. It was also a Phil Cuzzi problem too. Cuzzi, who was behind the dish this afternoon, clearly had a soft spot in his heart for strikes just off the left-handed batter’s box side of the plate. As the game ran on, he continued to ring players up on pitches outside of the zone until Miguel Sano couldn't take it anyone. https://twitter.com/cjzer0/status/891810158023782401 Home: Byron Buxton AND Byungho Park (remember him?!) homered in yesterday’s Rochester Red Wings game. Other stuff happened too! Cody Christie takes you around the org’s minor league action. Saturday’s Chattanooga Lookouts game went 21-innings which means a lot of pitchers had to hit because after 13 innings who cares? Let’s just end it all. Nevertheless, Chattanooga’s reliever Todd Van Steensel wants to know which hurler you think swung it best? Extra Innings: More free stuff! If you sign up at the Twins Daily Thank You Giveaway, you could win batting stance t-shirts of the 1987 or 1991 Twins lineups from Pick & Shovel. Random: BACK TO PHIL CUZZI. I’m at a personal crossroads about ROBOT UMPIRES. On one hand, I’m a big fan of getting the calls right. A strike should be a strike and a ball should be a ball. Nothing more frustrating than slapping a solid two-seamer through the outer-half of the zone when an umpire takes it away because your catcher was set up somewhere else. On the other hand, I also love getting mad at umpires. It’s my jam. It’s everyone’s jam. In the history of baseball, no one has not blamed an umpire for something. It feels so good to blame the blue. I’m conflicted about how I feel about the notion of the balls-and-strikes being taken out of a human’s hands. I’m 85% confident that if we as humans hand over the rights to call balls-and-strikes to umpires, the whole plot to Terminator will happen. The again, I look at charts like this and I think we are crazy to have humans making the calls. Get a gander at the difference between two umpire’s strike zones on either end of the spectrum. One is Cuzzi’s, whose 2017 strike zone is only more gracious than Doug Eddings and Bill Miller, and the other is Mark Wegner, who has the most shrunken strike zone to date. During Sunday’s game, ESPN/TruMedia’s data showed that Cuzzi called five pitches out of the strike zone as strikes. Four of those happened against the Twins. Three of those were called strike three (Brian Dozier twice, Miguel Sano once). A common response people give to that situation is that you got to swing because it is close. That’s just a dumb explanation. The other way to say it is “swing because someone is bad at their job”. Phil Cuzzi has proven to be bad at his job this year*. To be sure, the Twins did not lose because of Cuzzi. That would be an easy out. They stopped hitting and they stopped shutting opponents down with the bullpen. * All years.
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Good morning and welcome to the Daily Twins Daily. Over the weekend the Twins rid themselves of one starting pitcher and potential have more on the trading block. The trade deadline is coming fast and furious. What is the team going to look like on Tuesday morning? Also, will the bullpen ever work again?First: What was your favorite Jaime Garcia moment? Was it his one start in a Minnesota Twins uniform? In Oakland? That’s probably it. In fact, we made a sweet memorial video dedicated to him at our Facebook page. Yesterday’s Garcia trade’s return (and any potential incoming players at the deadline) reflects on the new front office’s philosophies. Nick Nelson takes a look at that direction when it comes to the recent acquisition of minor league pitchers. Second: Twins GM Thad Levine joined MLB Network Radio on Sunday to discuss the Garcia trade as well as the team’s status as the deadline approaches. Most reports have Ervin Santana, Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belise and Brian Dozier as players on the table. Here’s what he had to say... Extra Innings: More free stuff! If you sign up at the Twins Daily Thank You Giveaway, you could win batting stance t-shirts of the 1987 or 1991 Twins lineups from Pick & Shovel. Random: BACK TO PHIL CUZZI. I’m at a personal crossroads about ROBOT UMPIRES. On one hand, I’m a big fan of getting the calls right. A strike should be a strike and a ball should be a ball. Nothing more frustrating than slapping a solid two-seamer through the outer-half of the zone when an umpire takes it away because your catcher was set up somewhere else. On the other hand, I also love getting mad at umpires. It’s my jam. It’s everyone’s jam. In the history of baseball, no one has not blamed an umpire for something. It feels so good to blame the blue. I’m conflicted about how I feel about the notion of the balls-and-strikes being taken out of a human’s hands. I’m 85% confident that if we as humans hand over the rights to call balls-and-strikes to umpires, the whole plot to Terminator will happen. The again, I look at charts like this and I think we are crazy to have humans making the calls. Get a gander at the difference between two umpire’s strike zones on either end of the spectrum. One is Cuzzi’s, whose 2017 strike zone is only more gracious than Doug Eddings and Bill Miller, and the other is Mark Wegner, who has the most shrunken strike zone to date. Download attachment: Webp.net-gifmaker.gif Download attachment: Webp.net-gifmaker (1).gif During Sunday’s game, ESPN/TruMedia’s data showed that Cuzzi called five pitches out of the strike zone as strikes. Four of those happened against the Twins. Three of those were called strike three (Brian Dozier twice, Miguel Sano once). A common response people give to that situation is that you got to swing because it is close. That’s just a dumb explanation. The other way to say it is “swing because someone is bad at their job”. Phil Cuzzi has proven to be bad at his job this year*. To be sure, the Twins did not lose because of Cuzzi. That would be an easy out. They stopped hitting and they stopped shutting opponents down with the bullpen. * All years. Click here to view the article
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Morosi says the Twins could possibly shop the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, who is scheduled to start Friday in Oakland, as well as veteran starter Ervin Santana. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season and is owed an estimated $4.5 million on the remainder of the year. The Twins surrendered very little in Huescar Ynoa in order to get Garcia from the Braves so the team would likely have to assume some of his salary if they want to gain a superior prospect. Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Santana is owed another $13.5 million for 2018 and has a $14 million option for 2019 (or a $1 million buyout). Given the fact that he has pitched extremely consistent in addition to leading baseball in complete games and shutouts, Santana’s return would be significantly higher. Furthermore, if the Twins are willing to part ways with Santana and Garcia, it almost certainly means All Star closer Brandon Kintzler, who is a free agent at the season’s end, will also be on the trading block as well. The Twins have a three-game series starting tomorrow in Oakland and the future whereabouts of those pitchers sounds like it is contingent on the performance. Stay tuned.
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That’s what Jon Morosi’s sources have told him. According to the MLB Network reporter, the Minnesota Twins are contemplating unloading several key players if the current skid continues up until Monday’s trade deadline.Morosi says the Twins could possibly shop the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, who is scheduled to start Friday in Oakland, as well as veteran starter Ervin Santana. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season and is owed an estimated $4.5 million on the remainder of the year. The Twins surrendered very little in Huescar Ynoa in order to get Garcia from the Braves so the team would likely have to assume some of his salary if they want to gain a superior prospect. Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Santana is owed another $13.5 million for 2018 and has a $14 million option for 2019 (or a $1 million buyout). Given the fact that he has pitched extremely consistent in addition to leading baseball in complete games and shutouts, Santana’s return would be significantly higher. Furthermore, if the Twins are willing to part ways with Santana and Garcia, it almost certainly means All Star closer Brandon Kintzler, who is a free agent at the season’s end, will also be on the trading block as well. The Twins have a three-game series starting tomorrow in Oakland and the future whereabouts of those pitchers sounds like it is contingent on the performance. Stay tuned. Click here to view the article
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Good morning and welcome to the Daily Twins Daily. FINALLY the Minnesota Twins get back into the win column. Unfortunately, Cleveland and Kansas City won as well keeping them from gaining any ground. Jaime Garcia looked good in his first start in a Twins uniform while Byron Buxton did some things on a baseball field as well. Also, does Friday's win mean the team will reconsider their trade deadline position or have they already committed to the purge?First: Was this Jaime Garcia’s first and last start with the Minnesota Twins? If it was, it was pretty good. Seth Stohs walks you through the rest of the details from Friday’s win over the Oakland A’s. Second: Heading into the Dodgers series earlier in the week the Twins said they were not going to have Byron Buxton take a rehab assignment. After he showed up with migraine headaches and needing to sit out several games in a row, they changed their minds sent Buxton to Rochester. The Red Wings had him lead off on Friday and the game’s first pitch he deposited over the field fence. There is plenty more minor league action across the organization and Tom Froemming has you covered. Third: Let’s just say the Twins are indeed sellers after the weekend. Who stays? Who goes? Seth Stohs tries to handicap that action. Home: I am super amused by the hero town ball umpire who decided to walk away from a tie game in the 10th inning rather than take any more guff from the players and fans. Robot umpires wouldn’t walk away from games. Extra Innings: Twins Daily community member darin617 raises a good discussion in the forums -- the Twins only have 38 people committed to the 40-man roster. Could the last two slots come from outside the organization or are there two internal candidates ready for those? Random: Heading into the bottom of the 7th inning of last night’s game, FSN flashed a graphic showing the day’s better performances around the league. One of the three blurbs was former Twin Kurt Suzuki who had launched his 11th home run of the season. Both Dick Bremer and Roy Smalley were bemused by Suzuki’s recent power binge. Bremer noted that Suzuki has had a phenomenal July -- hitting seven home runs in the month -- and said that contending teams may be taking an interest in the catcher as a trade target. “I think he wants to stay in that bandbox in Atlanta,” added Smalley. For the record, only two of his 11 home runs have come in the Braves new ballpark. He is also hitting . 250/.318/,382 at home while posting a .288/.376/.685 line on the road. So yeah, I think he’ll be fine leaving the bandbox in Atlanta. Click here to view the article
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First: Was this Jaime Garcia’s first and last start with the Minnesota Twins? If it was, it was pretty good. Seth Stohs walks you through the rest of the details from Friday’s win over the Oakland A’s. Second: Heading into the Dodgers series earlier in the week the Twins said they were not going to have Byron Buxton take a rehab assignment. After he showed up with migraine headaches and needing to sit out several games in a row, they changed their minds sent Buxton to Rochester. The Red Wings had him lead off on Friday and the game’s first pitch he deposited over the field fence. There is plenty more minor league action across the organization and Tom Froemming has you covered. Third: Let’s just say the Twins are indeed sellers after the weekend. Who stays? Who goes? Seth Stohs tries to handicap that action. Home: I am super amused by the hero town ball umpire who decided to walk away from a tie game in the 10th inning rather than take any more guff from the players and fans. Robot umpires wouldn’t walk away from games. Extra Innings: Twins Daily community member darin617 raises a good discussion in the forums -- the Twins only have 38 people committed to the 40-man roster. Could the last two slots come from outside the organization or are there two internal candidates ready for those? Random: Heading into the bottom of the 7th inning of last night’s game, FSN flashed a graphic showing the day’s better performances around the league. One of the three blurbs was former Twin Kurt Suzuki who had launched his 11th home run of the season. Both Dick Bremer and Roy Smalley were bemused by Suzuki’s recent power binge. Bremer noted that Suzuki has had a phenomenal July -- hitting seven home runs in the month -- and said that contending teams may be taking an interest in the catcher as a trade target. “I think he wants to stay in that bandbox in Atlanta,” added Smalley. For the record, only two of his 11 home runs have come in the Braves new ballpark. He is also hitting . 250/.318/,382 at home while posting a .288/.376/.685 line on the road. So yeah, I think he’ll be fine leaving the bandbox in Atlanta.
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The reason Jaime Garcia pitched a gem in an Atlanta Braves uniform last night -- adding a grand slam at the plate for good measure -- rather than making travel arrangements to Minnesota appears to be because the Braves had concerns regarding the prospect the Twins made available in the trade talks.According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the trade stalled “due to Braves’ medical concern on Twins’ prospect.” There is still the possibility that the two sides come to a consensus on an alternative trade piece for Garcia but, for now, it would seem that the Twins will have to look elsewhere for a member of the rotation. Click here to view the article
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According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the trade stalled “due to Braves’ medical concern on Twins’ prospect.” The trade was first made public on Thursday, when Rosenthal tweeted that the Twins and Braves were “close” on a Garcia trade. This report was confirmed by several members of the local media. However, as time passed it became clear that the two sides were not necessarily as close as first reported. On Friday afternoon, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that the Braves were talking to other teams about Garcia and that a trade with the Twins at that point was “not probable”. The focus on the medical reports potentially indicate that the Braves and Twins were discussing a pitching prospect that has had a recent injury history. While the Twins player in question may never be known, purely speculative, Kohl Stewart is a higher profile prospect that has had in-season health issues. The list of recently injured pitching prospects doesn't end there. Regardless of the identity of the player, the Twins seemingly lose a bargaining chip. UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal tweets that Nick Burdi was the prospect in question. https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/888828263950422016 There is still the possibility that the two sides come to a consensus on an alternative trade piece for Garcia but, for now, it would seem that the Twins will have to look elsewhere for a member of the rotation.
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