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Following the trade of Fernando Rodney, the role of closer has been undecided but Trevor Hildenberger seemed as good of a replacement as any for a team that was clearly focused on the future. There was adequate enough reason to give Hildenberger a chance to convert saves. For starters he had performed well in the first-half of the season, striking out about a batter per inning and allowing just five home runs over 43 appearances. He also had the longest name of any member of the Twins’ bullpen. That had to account for something. Even before Hildenberger was asked to save games his performance had started to get shaky. Hitters who had once flailed at fading changeups and frisbee sliders were beginning to square them up. The regularity of which his secondary offerings were pasted around the field even incited the Twins to walk out the dreaded t-word: Tipping.According to the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino, manager Paul Molitor said that the team’s video scouts were scouring through tape to find any signs of tipping from Hildenberger, but Molitor felt that there wasn’t any signs of tipping. If that is the case how is it that opponents have gone from hitting .120 with nine extra base hits on his changeup and slider from the beginning of the year until July 15 to hitting .454 with eight extra base hits since July 15? The first element of Hildenberger’s second-half issues is predictability. There were patterns that started to emerge from early in the season that may have influenced the results in the latter portion. In his appearances against the Rays in Tampa, Hildenberger didn’t allow a hit off his secondary stuff. In the recent series in Minnesota, the Rays were 4-for-4. Joey Wendle was one of the Rays hitters to reach against his changeup. In the first two matchups in Tampa, Hildenberger struck Wendle out but he may have left a bread crumb for the left-handed hitter: In both meetings, Hildenberger threw a 1-1 changeup to him. At Target Field, facing yet another 1-1 count Wendle sat on Hildenberger’s changeup and laced it into center field for another hit. Another example was his battles with the Royals’ Whit Merrifield. From May 28 until July 21, Hildenberger faced Merrifield four times. In each occasion, Hildenberger started Merrifield off with a slider. The fourth time around Merrifield swung at the slider and knocked a single. In two ABs since that hit, Hildenberger has started him off with sinkers. But while the Royals and Rays did a number on Hildenberger, it has been the Cleveland Indians who have inflicted the most damage. Prior to the rough stretch, Hildenberger made three appearances against the Indians. During those appearances, he held the Indians hitless against his secondary pitches (0-for-5 with 2 strikeouts). Since July 15 Hildenberger has made four additional appearances against Cleveland and has had the same lineup trash his secondary stuff (6-for-12, 2 HR) -- including Francisco Lindor’s game-winning walk-off home run on August 8. What led up to Lindor’s game-winning tank shot? Leading into that August 8th match-up, Hildenberger had faced Lindor five times in 2018. In three of those occasions he started Lindor off with a changeup. If you are Lindor, chances are you can sit on the changeup and take a Daddy Hack. Hildenberger faced Jason Kipnis twice this year. Once at the beginning of the year where he started him with a sinker then two changeups in a row. In their second meeting -- an at-bat that preceded Lindor’s home run by two hitters -- Hildenberger once again started him with a fastball and then threw two changeups -- the second of which Kipnis lifted into left field for a base hit. The second element that may be behind Hildenberger’s struggles is a combination of the predictability and, yes, some pitch-tipping. According to Berardino’s article, Molitor appeared fairly confident that Hildenberger was not doing anything explicit to tip his pitches (flaring his glove or slowing his delivery to telegraph a particular pitch). And that may be true. But before we outright dismiss it, let’s consider there does seem to be a window in which Hildenberger could be tipping his hand. When Hildenberger breaks his hands, he does so away from his body. While he contorts, twists and bends, there appears to be a momentary flash where hitters can see the ball in Hildenberger’s hand. While not every team may be wise to his, the Indians may be one ballclub that has picked up on it. With the familiarity and perhaps an extra advantage in knowing what pitch may be coming, it wouldn’t be surprising to hear this is why Cleveland has been able to batter Hildenberger around so much in July and August. Again, the latter portion of this is a theory. The Twins have multiple camera angles, such as views from behind home plate, that could confirm this. Plus, if he were tipping, one of the members of the catching crew -- either Bobby Wilson or Mitch Garver -- likely would have mentioned something to the staff. If hitters are seeing something, catchers should definitely be able to as well. That being said, the Twins have little incentive to acknowledge or broadcast the notion that Hildenberger’s tipping pitches. If his mechanics are giving something away -- and again, IF -- the Twins would most likely want to get him quietly to the offseason where they could begin to address it (hiding the ball better like the aforementioned Makita). Click here to view the article

When news broke that lights-out lefty Antonio Bastardo had signed with the New York Mets, Twins faithful were understandably disappointed. After all, the 30-year-old Antonio Bastardo represented everything that the Twins could want: a reliever with a proven successful track record and also just happen to throw with his left hand. As fate would have it, the Twins were in the market for a set-up left-hander to complement the consortium of righties in the bullpen. Nevertheless, they missed out on Bastardo.On the Twins network radio program, general manager Terry Ryan said he was quite content with the assortment of arms he and his staff had already started collecting. In response to missing out (or perhaps sitting out) on Bastardo, Ryan mentioned that he had confidence in finding someone who could provide that kind of production -- specifically naming the recently signed Fernando Abad. As LaVelle Neal from the Star Tribune reported last week, the Minnesota Twins scouts say they feel that Abad had been tipping his pitches in 2015 resulting in the obliteration of many that had he spun toward home plate. When you consider that his home run rate skyrocketed to over two per nine innings pitched, as well as his well-hit average jumping from a career rate under 25% to above 35% in 2015, the theory seems plausible that hitters were tipped off by something in Abad’s methods. Beyond those two high-level metrics, more granular data may also corroborate the Twins’ theory. For instance, when you examine Abad’s chase rate on his two most frequented pitches -- his fastball and curve ball -- over the past four seasons, the numbers show a stark drop in hitters chasing pitches out of the zone. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, Abad was able to get hitters to chase after a fastball out of the strike zone 28.5% of the time from 2012 through 2014. This past year, however, hitters held up much more frequently, chasing after 20% of his out-of-zone fastballs. Likewise, opponents followed his breaking ball out of the strike zone 31% of the time from 2012-2014 but chased just 24% of time in 2015. It stands to reason that if hitters were able to pick up on what was coming ahead of time, they would have a better chance at zoning the pitch. Less chance of being fooled would lead to fewer silly swings. Tipping pitches is not exclusive to struggling relievers -- just ask David Price. In the ALCS, Price was cruising along for the Toronto Blue Jays and was shutting down the Kansas City Royals lineup in Game 2. In the seventh inning, however, the Royals began to make loud impact and put four runs on the big lefthander. Later, a member of the Royals staff confirmed to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci that they had picked up on Price’s tell. When Price threw his change-up, he would take an extra deep breath and hold the ball a fraction longer than when he threw his fastball. In the 2001 World Series, the Diamondbacks jumped all over the Yankees to a 15-2, Arizona chased Andy Pettitte out of the game early based on a tell that gave hitters a head’s up. According to broadcaster Rick Sutcliffe, Pettitte would double-tap the ball in his glove in the set position when he was coming with a fastball. Former Diamondback Jay Bell later confirmed this, saying his team had a “clear picture” of what the Yankee southpaw was going to throw. While Price and Pettitte’s stories are the norm when it comes to tipping pitches, there are other more absurd missteps. In his book “Throwback” former catcher Jason Kendall shared the story of Ted Lilly who would actually silently mouth the word “fastball” or “curve” to his catcher if he thought the hitter was taking a warm- up swing or looking down at the third base coach. Often, Lilly would zone out and simply mouth the pitch he wanted no matter who was looking. So what are the Twins’ scouts and hitters possibly seeing from Abad? Going over several of his outings from MLB.tv, there is one possibility of a pattern that starts to emerge in 2015. Take a look at the images below. The images are captured at the moment Abad brings his hands together before dropping his hands to his belt and delivering the pitch. In the top two images, Abad is about to throw a fastball. In the bottom, a breaking ball. Download attachment: Abad_Fastball.PNG Download attachment: Abad_Fastball2.PNG Download attachment: Abad_Breaking Ball.PNG As you can see, Abad’s hands are much higher when he collects prior to spinning a breaking ball to the Angels’ Kole Calhoun than in the other two pitches above. This seemed to happen several times over this season: His threw a fastball from the lower starting point and spun a pitch when he gathered high. It probably would not take long for a major league hitter, coach or scout to pick up on that pattern. http://i.imgur.com/bTViIMj.gif http://i.imgur.com/Isw4qzS.gif Could Abad’s struggles in 2015 really be sourced to an abundantly obvious tell? Abad’s gopher ball struggles might not be completely related to the pitch tipping (although that likely didn’t help). He also lost a noticeable amount of velocity off of his fastball -- dropping nearly two miles per hour on the heat over the previous season. He also added a very meh cutter to his repertoire. Furthermore, tipping his pitches or not, Abad fell behind hitters far too often this past season. He was getting strike one at a 52% clip which was well below the league average of 60%. Once he was behind, hitters could tee off. And tee off they did. Opponents slugged .963 off of Abad in hitter’s counts -- only five other relievers with 30 or more appearances fared worse (including Minnesota’s Trevor May). A combination of a diminished fastball and an expected fastball count will equal KABLOOIE. The Twins seem confident that they can fix Abad. In addition to eliminating his pitch tipping potential, Abad has one of the game’s best left-handed change-ups that can be harnessed. Opponents languished against the offspeed pitch, hitting just .125 while showing little ability to make much contact. It is no secret that Twins’ pitching coach Neil Allen has introduced methods for using the change-up more effectively and Abad seems like someone who could benefit greatly from that knowledge. As someone who is a year removed from chucking 97 mile per hour darts and holding lefties to a .191 batting average, Abad is a worthy gamble. If the collective scouting brain trust feel like they have some adjustments answers that will help him get back to his 2014 success, Abad stands to be a decent addition. Then again, Abad’s entire body of work over his career isn’t all that impressive. The downside is that the Twins have not secured a suitable left-handed alternative if he doesn’t bounce back. Click here to view the article