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Pittsburgh sat with a 56-52 record on July 31, 2018. This was good enough for third in their division and they were trailing multiple teams for a Wild Card spot. Being on the outside looking in, didn’t stop them from making a franchise altering trade. The Pirates wanted right-handed pitcher Chris Archer, so they went and got him. Spoiler alert… Pittsburgh would finish fourth in their own division last season. During his last three seasons in Tampa, Archer posted a 3.77 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while averaging 245 strikeouts and 205 innings per season. He had one top-5 finish for the AL Cy Young and he represented the Rays in the 2015 and 2017 MLB All-Star Game. He was a workhorse as he led the AL in games started in both of his All-Star campaigns. Archer had seemed to be on the trade block for multiple seasons because Tampa Bay had him signed to a team friendly deal and the two-time All-Star might not have a higher value. Because of their market, the Rays are forced to part with players as their contract costs rise. Tampa has been able to flourish through strong scouting and thinking outside of the box. Tampa certainly knew what they were doing when they dealt Archer for a package that included Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz. Meadows was elected to his first All-Star Game this season after hitting .289/.364/.502 in the first half with 30 extra-base hits including 12 homers. He currently looks like the biggest piece of the trade for Tampa, but both pitchers could still turn out to be very good. Glasnow has an injury history including currently being on the IL with a right forearm strain. In his eight starts (48 1/3 innings) since being dealt, he has a 1.86 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and 55 strikeouts and 9 walks. Fans might remember Baz’s name because he was one of the top prospects in the 2017 Draft, when the Twins had the first pick. He’s pitching in the Midwest League and has a 3.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 10 starts. Since being traded, Archer has not been the same pitcher that he was in Tampa. He has a brutal 4.97 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 143 innings. His strikeout rate has gone up from 9.7 K/9 in Tampa to 10.4 K/9 in Pittsburgh, but his walk rate has also increased (2.9 to 4.0 BB/9). He’s giving up home runs at almost twice the rate and one of the biggest concerns might be the amount of hard contact he is giving up. His 12.3 Barrel % is in the bottom 4% of the NL. So how can the Twins avoid an Archer style fleecing by another club? In all reality, it’s rarely known this quickly after a trade if one team has gained a significant advantage. Meadows was a consensus top-50 prospect for most of his professional career. In comparison, Minnesota’s closest prospect might be Alex Kirilloff. It seems likely that Kirilloff is on a short list of prospects that Minnesota wouldn’t be willing to trade unless they were floored by a deal. The Twins might not have a comparable pitcher in their farm system to Glasnow. Entering the 2017 season, he was ranked in the top-25 prospects in baseball by all three major rankings and he was big league ready at the time of the trade. Someone like Jordan Balazovic might be the closest as he continues to rise in prospect rankings. He, like Glasnow, was a fifth-round pick, but he isn’t close to being big league ready. Few saw this kind of drop-off coming for Archer and that’s what can happen with some of the big deals that will happen before next week. Back in 2016, Cubs fans saw their club deal future All-Star Gleyber Torres to the Yankees for closer Aroldis Chapman. Chapman and the Cubs went on to win the World Series and he returned to New York that winter as a free agent. My guess is Cubs fans will take the World Series flag flying over Wrigley instead of having Torres in the middle of their infield. What are your thoughts as the Twins become buyers? How can they avoid an Archer deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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- chris archer
- austin meadows
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If I had a dollar for every time someone suggested the Twins should manipulate their bonus pool to draft two top five talents, I’d have roughly $7,770,700, or the equivalent of what the first pick is worth. The rules have changed and, honestly, the Twins just aren’t in a position to do what the Astros have successfully done on multiple occasions. But I’m going to lay out a scenario that could result in two top 15 (or better) talents - a scenario which one scout tells me could be “realistic.” First, let’s connect some dots.Derek Falvey said on Wednesday that the Twins are still considering five or six guys at #1 overall. The list likely includes Kyle Wright, Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay and Royce Lewis, who seem to be the favored candidates to go in the top four. That means options “5” and “6” are guys that are not only unlikely to go first overall, but also unlikely to be taken in the top three, if not top four. The difference between going fifth and going first is over $2 million. This story was sent out last week on our Twins Daily newsletter. Sign up below or in the upper right-hand corner to get insights like this first. So let’s say that the Twins cut a deal with player “5.” They’ll draft him first overall, but sign him for “only” $6.25 million, which is between the slots of the third and fourth overall picks. As a result, they bank $1.52 million that can be spent on later picks. Then, when their #35 pick is on the clock, the Twins will essentially have $5.3 million to spend on their next two picks, #35 and #37. They could also cut a deal with a lesser-viewed - think eighth-round - talent and sign him for $300,000 at pick #37. Or maybe they use more at #37 and find ways to skim from their third day picks and the $2.6 million tied to them. At any rate, they could have $5 million, or nearly the equivalent of the seventh-overall pick, for the 35th pick. The problem is finding the right matches. While it might not be apparent that the new regime is higher on pitching, I think we’ll notice - maybe not this year, but eventually - a greater attraction to prep pitchers.So while we’ve heard college first baseman Pavin Smith’s name mentioned as someone with whom the Twins could cut a deal, I’m going to lean more towards prep lefty MacKenzie Gore. Gore profiles similar to Braxton Garrett, who the Twins really liked last year but was picked seventh overall, well before the Twins’ #15 pick. Gore possesses a mid-90s fastball, a very good curveball and a slider and changeup that could both develop into plus pitches. He won’t tumble far - and could certainly leapfrog any of the top pitchers - but a guarantee to secure Top three money - and maybe the Twins could even pay him more - and forever be the #1 pick might be attractive to him and his reps. Gore is committed to East Carolina and is widely considered the best left-handed prep pitcher in the draft. One potential hang-up in this plan is that Gore is represented by Scott Boras. As far as projecting which players will come out with super high asking prices (like many prep pitchers did last year in the weeks leading up to the draft… and they all signed), it’s still tough. But there was one nugget in Keith Law’s last mock draft that was worth some attention. “There’s a sense that (Shane) Baz is either heading to school (TCU) or has a deal with someone in the sandwich/second round.” Well, look at that. But before we get too excited, let’s be warned that the Twins (#1, #35, #37) aren’t the only team with the ammunition to pull this off. The Reds (#2, #32, #38), Rays (#4, #31, #40) and A’s (#6, #33, #43) all have three picks in the Top 43 selections. But none has the Twins arsenal. So who is Shane Baz? He’s someone the Twins have scouted in Texas and was once reported as someone who interested them at #1 (and he still could!). Baz is arguably the most-advanced prep right-hander in the draft, beating out Hunter Greene because of his secondary pitches. Baz also brings a mid-90s fastball to the table, a heater that has touched 98 and reportedly has the highest spin-rate of any prep pitcher. (Something the new regime would know!) His repertoire also includes a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. The changeup isn’t very good yet, but the cutter is really good and the breaking balls aren’t far behind. Of course, this is just one scenario that involves MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz. Maybe Shane Baz could go first and the Twins could strike a deal with local boy Sam Carlson (though the Reds seem to really like Carlson too). Maybe Kyle Wright can be convinced he could drop to #4 if the Twins don’t pick him and lower his demands. These are all scenarios that the Twins will likely explore. And right now, the actual plan has yet to be hashed out. But when it’s time to make that pick, it’s safe to say that this year’s draft preparation will have left no stone unturned. Click here to view the article
- 24 replies
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- derek falvey
- mackenzie gore
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Derek Falvey said on Wednesday that the Twins are still considering five or six guys at #1 overall. The list likely includes Kyle Wright, Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay and Royce Lewis, who seem to be the favored candidates to go in the top four. That means options “5” and “6” are guys that are not only unlikely to go first overall, but also unlikely to be taken in the top three, if not top four. The difference between going fifth and going first is over $2 million. This story was sent out last week on our Twins Daily newsletter. Sign up below or in the upper right-hand corner to get insights like this first. So let’s say that the Twins cut a deal with player “5.” They’ll draft him first overall, but sign him for “only” $6.25 million, which is between the slots of the third and fourth overall picks. As a result, they bank $1.52 million that can be spent on later picks. Then, when their #35 pick is on the clock, the Twins will essentially have $5.3 million to spend on their next two picks, #35 and #37. They could also cut a deal with a lesser-viewed - think eighth-round - talent and sign him for $300,000 at pick #37. Or maybe they use more at #37 and find ways to skim from their third day picks and the $2.6 million tied to them. At any rate, they could have $5 million, or nearly the equivalent of the seventh-overall pick, for the 35th pick. The problem is finding the right matches. While it might not be apparent that the new regime is higher on pitching, I think we’ll notice - maybe not this year, but eventually - a greater attraction to prep pitchers.So while we’ve heard college first baseman Pavin Smith’s name mentioned as someone with whom the Twins could cut a deal, I’m going to lean more towards prep lefty MacKenzie Gore. Gore profiles similar to Braxton Garrett, who the Twins really liked last year but was picked seventh overall, well before the Twins’ #15 pick. Gore possesses a mid-90s fastball, a very good curveball and a slider and changeup that could both develop into plus pitches. He won’t tumble far - and could certainly leapfrog any of the top pitchers - but a guarantee to secure Top three money - and maybe the Twins could even pay him more - and forever be the #1 pick might be attractive to him and his reps. Gore is committed to East Carolina and is widely considered the best left-handed prep pitcher in the draft. One potential hang-up in this plan is that Gore is represented by Scott Boras. As far as projecting which players will come out with super high asking prices (like many prep pitchers did last year in the weeks leading up to the draft… and they all signed), it’s still tough. But there was one nugget in Keith Law’s last mock draft that was worth some attention. “There’s a sense that (Shane) Baz is either heading to school (TCU) or has a deal with someone in the sandwich/second round.” Well, look at that. But before we get too excited, let’s be warned that the Twins (#1, #35, #37) aren’t the only team with the ammunition to pull this off. The Reds (#2, #32, #38), Rays (#4, #31, #40) and A’s (#6, #33, #43) all have three picks in the Top 43 selections. But none has the Twins arsenal. So who is Shane Baz? He’s someone the Twins have scouted in Texas and was once reported as someone who interested them at #1 (and he still could!). Baz is arguably the most-advanced prep right-hander in the draft, beating out Hunter Greene because of his secondary pitches. Baz also brings a mid-90s fastball to the table, a heater that has touched 98 and reportedly has the highest spin-rate of any prep pitcher. (Something the new regime would know!) His repertoire also includes a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. The changeup isn’t very good yet, but the cutter is really good and the breaking balls aren’t far behind. Of course, this is just one scenario that involves MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz. Maybe Shane Baz could go first and the Twins could strike a deal with local boy Sam Carlson (though the Reds seem to really like Carlson too). Maybe Kyle Wright can be convinced he could drop to #4 if the Twins don’t pick him and lower his demands. These are all scenarios that the Twins will likely explore. And right now, the actual plan has yet to be hashed out. But when it’s time to make that pick, it’s safe to say that this year’s draft preparation will have left no stone unturned.
- 24 comments
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- derek falvey
- mackenzie gore
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