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Johan Santana and Joe Nathan were each top pitchers of their generation. Both were one-and-done on the BBWAA ballot, so who was the more significant snub? Voting for baseball’s Hall of Fame can be a challenging process for fans to understand. Some of baseball’s best players are being held out because of their steroid ties, while others with lesser resumes are inducted. Some deserving players fall off the ballot and follow a much longer path to Cooperstown. Two former Twins greats, Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat, were elected to the Hall of Fame this year through the era committee voting process. Four era committees are divided by baseball’s different eras. The Golden Days Committee elected Oliva and Kaat, and next winter, the era up for consideration is Today’s Game which covers 1988-Present. Johan Santana and Joe Nathan will get the opportunity to appear on this ballot in the years ahead. Johan Santana’s Hall of Fame Case Santana’s Cooperstown case is almost the exact opposite of newly elected Kaat. Santana was baseball’s best pitcher for multiple seasons, but his career was cut short due to injury. Kaat pitched for a long time and compiled solid numbers over a long career. He only received Cy Young votes in one season and finished a distant fourth that season. So what’s more important for a Hall of Fame case, longevity or peak value? Injuries clearly impacted the longevity of Santana’s career, but there have been other players with shortened careers to be elected to Cooperstown. Twins fans are well familiar with Kirby Puckett and the injury that forced him to retire early. When he became eligible, voters had no problem selecting him on the first ballot. According to JAWS, Puckett ranks as the 24th best center fielder, with players like Kenny Lofton, Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Johnny Damon ranking ahead of him. Sandy Koufax is considered one of the best starting pitchers of all time, and he compares very closely to Santana. Like Santana, Koufax pitched 12 years at the big-league level, which meant he retired before his age-31 season. According to JAWS, Koufax is the 96th best starting pitcher, and Santana is 26 places higher in the rankings. Santana also lost out on a third Cy Young that would have significantly helped his HOF candidacy. Joe Nathan’s Hall of Fame Case While Santana was out of baseball in his early 30s, Nathan didn’t become a big-league regular until his late 20s. Nathan pitched into his early 40s and established himself as one of the top-10 relievers of all time. Unfortunately, relievers are criminally underrepresented in Cooperstown, with it being the only position group to have fewer than ten elected players. According to JAWS, Nathan is the eighth-best reliever which puts him ahead of Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers, and Bruce Sutter. Billy Wagner is a prime example of a reliever similar to Nathan, that has been gaining HOF support. Wagner ranks two spots ahead of Nathan regarding JAWS, and their career numbers are very similar. Wagner was named on 51% of the ballots in his seventh year of eligibility, a jump of over 40% since his first year. Now he has three more voting cycles to gain 24% of the vote. Nathan’s career numbers put him in elite company. Among pitchers with at least 900 innings pitched, only Billy Wagner and Nolan Ryan have a lower Hits per Nine Innings ratio. He topped the 30-save mark in nine seasons, including accumulating 40 or more saves in four seasons. Even as a reliever, he had multiple top-five finishes in the AL Cy Young Award Voting. Also, Nathan ranks in the top-7 all-time relief pitchers using a hybrid average of WAR, WPA, and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI). Nathan was clearly one of the best relievers in baseball history. Santana was baseball’s best starting pitcher for multiple seasons. Their Hall of Fame cases are complicated, but they both deserve to be more than one-and-done on the ballot. Who do you think was the bigger, more significant HOF snub? Will either player be elected to the Hall? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

On a late summer day under the Metrodome’s Teflon covering, fans watched a master at work. Johan Santana dominated the Texas Rangers over eight shutout innings. He set a Twins team record with 17 strikeouts and allowed only two hits. For the over 36,000 fans in attendance, it was Mozart’s greatest symphony or Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel. It was the music of a man on his way to the Hall of Fame. In a perfect world, Santana would have pitched into his late 30’s or early 40’s while continuing to be one of the best in the game. That ideal world didn’t play out and he never pitched a big league game after the age of 33. At the height of his career, there is no doubt that he was the best pitcher on the planet. This year will mark his first chance at being elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. In this series, I will build up Santana’s case for enshrinement. The following is a paean to the career of the southpaw from Venezuela. A man who should and can be elected into the hallowed grounds of Cooperstown.The Puckett Clause Twins fans are well aware of the legend of Kirby Puckett. His career tragically ended too soon at the young age of 35 after 12 seasons. Puckett was a dominant player during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s as the Twins won two championships in a five year span. For 10 straight seasons, he was named an American League All-Star and he won six Gold Gloves for his defensive prowess. Some would argue he willed the Twins to a Game 7 of the 1991 World Series with his heroic actions in Game 6. Puckett was on a path for the Hall of Fame before his career was cut short. He wasn’t able to compile the same type of careers numbers that would scream Hall of Fame player. He only had two seasons in the top 10 for WAR and his career WAR only places him as the 184th all-time position player. That ties him with Brian Giles. Heck, even Joe Mauer ranks higher. There are plenty of people who believe he shouldn’t be part of Cooperstown’s elite group. The members of the BBWAA thought differently about Puckett. He was elected on his first ballot with 82.1% of the vote which easily cleared the 75% needed for induction. By receiving 36 more votes than were needed, he joined Dave Winfield in the Class of 2001. Puckett was able to pack enough into 12 seasons and the writers honored him for being one of baseball’s best for the better part of a decade. Applying the Puckett Clause Much like Puckett, Santana saw his career ended too early because of injury. Santana wasn’t hit in the head with a Dennis Martinez fastball. Instead, his golden left arm was betrayed by an ailing left shoulder. Some Santana supporters will point to his no-hitter on June 1, 2012 as his Puckett-Martinez moment. On the way to the first no-hitter in Mets’ franchise history, Santana tossed 134 pitches. At the conclusion of that contest, his season ERA dropped to 2.38 but he posted an 8.27 mark over his final ten appearances. He would never pitch in another MLB game. With writers limited to 10 names per ballot, it could be easy for some to ignore what Santana was able to accomplish. From 2003 through 2008, he pitched at much more than a Hall of Fame level. In over 1400 innings, he posted a 2.86 ERA (156 ERA+) while striking out four times as many batters as he walked. Throw in two Cy Young Awards and a third award that was stolen from him and it looks like he has a solid case for Cooperstown. As with Puckett, Santana didn’t have the longevity to accumulate many of the numbers needed to be deemed Hall of Fame worthy. He couldn’t pitch 3,000 innings. He couldn’t strike out 2,500 batters. He couldn’t accumulate a large career WAR total. If he had been able to pitch four or five more seasons in the back-end of a rotation, he’d be a lock for the Hall. His ailing shoulder took those seasons away. The greatness of careers shortened by injury should be given the benefit of the doubt. When Twins fans examine Kirby Puckett, it is clear that he was a Hall of Fame player. One high and tight fastball from Dennis Martinez deprived Twins Territory of the end of his career. Santana fits the same mold as he dominated the game before an injury forced him off the mound. The Puckett Clause applies and only strengthens Santana’s case for Cooperstown. Should the Puckett Clause be applied to Santana? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Don’t forget to stop back in the coming weeks as I continue to make the Cooperstown Case for Johan Santana. Click here to view the article

Nick Nelson's excellent look at Byron Buxton and his injuries made me think about who would be a counterpart to him and his career so far and Pete Reiser immediately came to mind. Called Pistol Pete long before Pete Marinovich, he was a sensation. Read this paragraph from his Wikipedia Page - "In 1941, his first season as a regular starter, Reiser helped the Dodgers win the pennant for the first time since 1920. He was a sensation that year, winning the National League batting title while leading the league in doubles, triples, runs scored and slugging percentage. He was also named a starter to the All-Star team and placed second in MVP balloting. On July 19 of the following year, Reiser crashed face-first into the outfield wall in St. Louis, trying to catch what turned out to be a game-winning inside-the-park home run by Enos Slaughter of the rival Cardinals in the bottom of the 11th inning. The loss cut the Dodgers' lead over the Cardinals to six games." Reiser missed only 4 games with his concussion - we are better at recognizing the effect today - and he only batted 244 for the rest of the season dropping his average to 310. Now to continue the comparison - here is another excerpt from Wiki -- "Reiser gave great effort on every play in the field, and was therefore very injury-prone. He fractured his skull running into an outfield wall on one occasion (but still made the throw back to the infield), was temporarily paralyzed on another, and was taken off the field on a stretcher a record 11 times." Eleven times! Can you imagine. Today Nick gave us Buxton's injuries from the last two years. April 18, 2018: Placed on DL due to migraines May 20, 2018: Placed on DL due to fracture in left toe (suffered on foul ball during rehab stint) July 14, 2018: Placed on DL at AAA due to left wrist strain (suffered swinging the bat) August 1, 2018: Placed on DL at AAA due to lingering issues with left wrist June 18, 2019: Placed on IL due to right wrist contusion (suffered on HBP) July 16, 2019: Placed on IL due to concussion-like symptoms (suffered on impact with ground on diving catch) August 3, 2019: Placed on IL due to left shoulder subluxation (suffered in collision with OF wall) Pete could not change and neither can Byron. They have to play their own style. Even if destruction. Reiser went into the military in WWII and injured his should while playing army ball. He had to give up batting switch handed and he had to learn to throw with his opposite arm, but he came back! SABR describes this - "Once he was chasing a fly ball and burrowed right through the thick hedge that formed the outfield wall—and down a ten-foot drainage ditch on the opposite side. He separated his shoulder and couldn’t throw. So he simply switched to a right-handed glove and threw with his left arm, as he had in Elmira in 1939." He later said: "It wasn't as serious as the head injuries, but it did more to end my career. The shoulder kept popping out of place, more bone chips developed, and there was constant pain in the arm and shoulder." How good was he? SABR says "At fifteen, Reiser sneaked into a St. Louis Cardinals tryout, where he out-threw and outran more than 800 other boys. He was disappointed when he returned home without a contract, but later a Cardinals scout, Charlie Barrett, visited the Reiser home and explained why they hadn't made a big deal about Pete at Sportsman’s Park. The Cardinals didn't want word leaking out to the Browns, with whom they shared the ballpark, or anyone else. The scout also admitted they’d had their eye on him since grade school. The Cardinals knew Pete wasn’t old enough to sign to a contract, so they got permission from George Reiser to hire the boy as a “chauffeur.”" Now we hear a lot about Byron and how he should slow down, let balls go, but perhaps the ending of the SABR article should be heard. "by the early 1950s most teams had either installed warning tracks or at least planned to, and some stadiums were also starting to pad their walls. The first padded wall at Ebbets Field was made of cork. Given how hard Reiser hit that wall, it is doubtful anything other than modern foam cushioning would have saved him. "Alas, in the heat of the moment, Pete Reiser just never could pull up and play it off the wall. Every fly ball was his to catch, and catch them all he would—or kill himself trying." Byron is not Byron if he fails to chase the ball and make a full effort. We just have to hope the Twins find more padding and luck goes his way. Here are some more big leaguers who suffered from injury filled careers - some very good players. Bob Grim - injures took his career after a rookie 20 win season with the Yankees BO Jackson - played in NFL and MLB and was a real treat till a hip injury in NFL Herb Score was a star pitcher until Gil McDougal hit a line drive to Score's head. Mauer and Morneau taught us about concussion. Sandy Koufax had arthritis and elbow injuries and played with pain as long as he could Alan Trammel missed a seasons worth of games to injuries during his 20 year career. J R Richards was striking out batters when Ks were not common and was cut down by a stroke. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior - just think what the cubs would have been if injuries had not ruined their careers. Mark Fydrich had only one year to make his significant mark on baseball You can not legislate injuries. No rules can eliminate the dangers for men who are taught to always play hard. We just have to hope Byron is lucky and that he keeps impressing us with his speed and determination.

The 2018 Baseball Writers’ Association of America released their Hall of Fame ballot on Monday. Returning names like relief pitcher Trevor Hoffman and outfielder Vladimir Guerrero are almost assured of election. Hoffman fell five votes short in 2017 and Guerrero was 15 votes shy of induction. There is a strong crop of first time nominees as well. Third baseman Chipper Jones and shortstop Omar Vizuel each have strong resumes. Two former Twins, Jim Thome and Johan Santana, will also be on the ballot for the first time. Could Thome or Santana be inducted next summer?Thome’s Resume Thome’s numbers speak for themselves. Only nine players have surpassed the 600 home run plateau and Thome is one of them. He also compiled 1,699 RBIs, 1,583 runs scored, a .402 OBP and 2,328 hits. According to Baseball Reference’s Offensive WAR, he has the 44th highest total in baseball history and his WAR for position players is in the top 55. His career slugging (.544) and OPS (.956) both rank in the top 25 all-time. He also ranks seventh in base on balls (1,747). His demeanor on and off the field also separated him from the pack. Former teammate Joe Crede said, “He’s the epitome of a baseball player.” That kind of resume will be tough for the writers to ignore. Santana’s Resume Santana provides a more interesting case for the Hall of Fame. He was the most dominant pitcher in the game for a five-year stretch but his career was eventually derailed by injuries. Earlier this year, Seth compared Santana’s career to the great Sandy Koufax. There are similar career paths for both players. Baseball Reference’s Cy Young Career Shares (2.72) has him 12th all-time. Of the players in front of him, eight are in the Hall of Fame. The four not in the Hall are Roger Clemens, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, and Max Scherzer. Clemens may never get in but the other three all have a very strong chance. He ranks in the top 20 all-time in strikeouts per nine and adjusted ERA+. Predictions Other sluggers from Thome’s era have struggled to make it on the first ballot. A steroid era cloud has hung over some players like last year’s inductee Jeff Bagwell. Thome’s numbers are some of the best all-time and his overall contributions to the game will make it tough to keep him out of Cooperstown. This year’s ballot is stacked so he could fall victim to too many people passing him over to keep other players on the ballot. That being said, I still think he gets in. Santana is going to be a tough player for the writers to consider. I think it would take multiple years of him being on the ballot to start building up a case in his favor. He would need writers talking about how dominant he was before the injury. Twins fans saw a player like Kirby Puckett get inducted even though his career was cut short by an injury. Could the baseball writers do the same thing with Santana? It doesn’t seem likely for him to make it in 2018. Do you think either player makes the cut? Should Santana make it for his dominant stretch? Who else on the ballot will be elected? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins celebrated their Hall of Fame weekend. On Saturday, Michael Cuddyer was inducted, and then Sunda it was Andy MacPhail’s turn. The fun part about the Hall of Fame (baseball’s or the Twins) is the conversation that it can create. While watching Bartolo Colon on Sunday, the name of Johan Santana was mentioned. Of course, I mentioned about how Colon ‘stole’ the 2005 Cy Young from Santana. As baseball conversations tend to do, it shifted again, this time to a comparison between Johan Santana and Sandy Koufax. Koufax, of course, was a Hall of Famer. He was one of baseball’s greatest pitchers ever for a six year period in the early 1960s. His full career went 12 years, but his final six seasons were incredible. He retired while at the top of his game. He was just 30 years old and coming off a great season in which he won his third Cy Young Award. However, he had chronic arthritis in his left arm. He feared it would become increasingly worse until he eventually couldn’t use his left hand. Santana was a Rule 5 pick for the Twins. He spent a couple of seasons in the early ‘90s working primarily out of the Twins bullpen. But he had an eight year stretch where no one in baseball was as good.His final five seasons with the Twins, and his first year as a member of the Mets were six incredible seasons. So, how do the careers, and those “peak seasons” of Johan Santana and Sandy Koufax match up? Let’s find out.It’s interesting to note that both Johan Santana and Sandy Koufax pitched in 12 major league seasons. For Koufax, his career spanned 1955 through 1966. For Santana, he pitched in the big leagues from 2000 until 2012. He missed all of 2011 which is why he pitched 12 seasons. Let’s just put some of the numbers out there between the two and see how they line up. Santana had a stretch of five seasons during which he did not pitch less than 219 innings. During Koufax’s career, he had a stretch where he threw over 300 innings in four out of six seasons. The times were different, of course, as Bert Blyleven informs us, frequently. Santana had 15 complete games during his career. Koufax went the distance 15 or more times in five seasons. That’s why Koufax had more wins and more losses. He rarely had to rely on his bullpen finishing what he started. Their WHIPs are pretty much identical. Koufax gave up fewer hits, but Santana had much better control. They both struck out about a batter an inning. It’s interesting to note that while Koufax gave up nearly a half run less per nine innings over his career, Santana’s ERA+ is actually 5% better than Koufax’s. Why? In the late 1950s, offense was down. In 1961, baseball raised the mound in an attempt to help hitters. It worked, and yet run scoring was still not high. Santana was pitching during an era when offense was prevalent, for whatever reasons you want to credit. Looking at the totality of their careers, one would have to say that they are very much equivalent, particularly when adjusting for era. Koufax was very much an average big league pitcher over his first six seasons, and then he became one of the best pitchers ever over a six year stretch to close out his career. Santana had two years of adjusting to the big leagues after being forced to be in the big leagues because of the Rule 5 status. His second year also wasn’t great. However, from 2002 through 2010, he never had an ERA+ under 129 (29% better than average). Santana’s stretch of success was a couple of years longer than Koufax’s. Unfortunately, once Santana got hurt in 2011, his career was basically over. He tried multiple comebacks but was not successful. Both great left-handers had careers that ended far too soon. Koufax made that decision as a 30-year-old. Santana’s great stretch ended as a 31-year-old. Koufax benefited - in terms of long-term status - because he didn’t end his career with injury. He quit too early, rather than too late. Santana, for many, may have hurt his stock by pitching hurt and trying to come back for so long. One of those things that people like to look at is a player’s peak. How good was a player, or a pitcher, when he was at his best. As it relates to the Hall of Fame, the minimum peak seems to be five or six years. While I noted above that Koufax's peak was a six-year period, Santana's was an eight-year period. But to be equal, I just looked at Santana's best six-year stretch. As you recall from the 12-year comparison, Koufax has a better ERA during his peak years than Santana did. In this case, Koufax also was better relative to the league. He was 56% better than league average while Santana was still very impressive at 50% better than the league. They both gave up right around one base runner per inning. Koufax's control was significantly better during the great half of his career, with a walk rate of nearly one less per nine innings. They both recorded a lot of strikeouts. While hitters a decade ago didn't strike out quite as much as they do now, they struck out a lot more than they did in the '60s. In other words, 9.4 K/9 in the '60s is more impressive than 9.4 K/9 in the '00s because fifty years ago, batters took a lot of pride in not striking out. LEAGUE LEADERSHIP/AWARDS Sandy Koufax - Led the league in strikeouts four times. Led in innings pitched twice. Led in ERA five times and ERA+ twice. He led the league in WHIP four times. He led the league in K/9 six times. He won three Cy Young awards and finished in the top three four times. Johan Santana - Led the league in strikeouts three times. He led in innings pitched twice. He led the league in ERA and ERA+ three times. He also led the league in WHIP three times. He led the league in K/9 three times. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top three four times. SUMMARY While this is a very quick analysis and comparison of the two pitchers, I think the high-level data does show that Sandy Koufax was a little better statistically in his era during his peak than Santana was. Looking at their full careers, the argument could certainly be made that Santana had the better career. Wins Above Replacement - bWAR, Koufax led 53.1 to 50.7. Koufax has a bigger advantage in fWAR (54.5 to 45.3). And again, 46.5 of Koufax's fWAR was in those six peak years. So yes, Sandy Koufax was the better of the two pitchers. But it does seem that even us, Twins fans, may not realize how great Johan Santana was. I watched him pitch. I knew he was good, but to look at the numbers, and realize just how similar Santana's career was to Koufax's, it surprised me. Obviously Johan Santana will be a member of the Twins Hall of Fame, likely the first time he appears on the ballot. But maybe the Twins fan base should also start pushing the candidacy of Johan Santana for the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown too. Click here to view the article