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First Round Busts: The Twins Struck Out Three Consecutive Years
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Minnesota had a decent run of first round picks in the early 1990s. Torii Hunter, Todd Walker, Mark Redman and Michael Cuddyer were all drafted in consecutive years leading into the three picks discussed below. All those players would make it to the big leagues and there are multiple All-Stars on the list. However, Minnesota’s luck ran out from there. Ryan Mills (1998, 6th overall) Ryan Mills had been a 13th round pick out of high school by the Yankees, but he opted to head to Arizona State and he greatly improved his draft stock. He played every professional inning with the Twins organization, but he failed to get out of Triple-A. He was the only top-10 pick that year not to make the big leagues. Other players taken later in the first round included Carlos Pena (25.5 WAR), Jeff Weaver (15.2 WAR), CC Sabathia (62.5 WAR) and Aaron Rowand (20.9 WAR). BJ Garbe (1999, 5th overall) One year after the Twins took Mills, BJ Garbe was the team’s first round pick and the team missed out for the second year in a row. Josh Hamilton and Josh Beckett were the first two players off the board, but some other well-known big leaguers were taken later in the first round. The Twins missed out on Barry Zito (31.9 WAR), Ben Sheets (23.2 WAR), Alex Rios (27.3 WAR) and Brian Roberts (29.5 WAR). Garbe played for three different organizations and never made it past Double-A. By the age of 25, he’d be out of baseball. Adam Johnson (2000, 2nd overall) Adam Johnson might be the biggest swing and a miss in team history. Minnesota saw the Marlins take Adrian Gonzalez with the first overall pick before they were on the clock. There was plenty of other strong talent left on the board including Rocco Baldelli (10.2 WAR), Chase Utley (64.4 WAR) and Adam Wainwright (40.5 WAR). Johnson would make his big league debut in 2001, just one year after being drafted. He would only make nine appearances with the Twins and he allowed 30 earned runs in 26.1 innings. Johnson was out of affiliated baseball at age-26 and his professional career was over before he turned 30. Minnesota’s first round ineptitude improved after the Johnson debacle. Joe Mauer was selected first overall in 2001, Denard Span was taken in 2002, Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins were taken in 2004, and Matt Garza was taken in 2005. While these picks all worked out well, one must wonder how the future of the franchise would have changed with different picks from 1998-2000. Which player was the biggest bust? Which player do you wish the Twins would have drafted instead of these players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email- 13 comments
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I looked at all of the first-round draft picks going all the way back to the beginning. 1965 was the first year of the amateur draft. I lumped all of the first-round picks together and ran some fun pivot tables. Some of the results are interesting, even surprising. First, let’s take a look the Average WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the top 12 players selected each year. Admittedly, there is no perfect way of making the data mean a lot. The sample size is just too small. There have been 50 drafts, but the data is incomplete for anyone who continues to play. So, be sure to take this information with a grain of salt. Pick / Avg WAR 1 / 40.8 2 / 35.5 3 / 48.4 4 / 44.6 5 / 38.6 6 / 56.7 7 / 37.1 8 / 49.2 9 / 28.8 10 / 34.5 11 / 26.3 12 / 32.0 The data on this chart shows that the #6 pick has proven to be the best over the history of the MLB Draft. At 56.7 WAR, the #6 spot is 7.5 WAR ahead of the next highest position, the #8 spot. Now, the #6 spot has produced some of the best baseball players in history. The Pittsburgh Pirates took an outfielder from Arizona State with the sixth pick of the 1985 MLB Draft. Barry Bonds turned into one of the best hitters of all time. He posted 162.4 WAR. The Milwaukee Brewers drafted a shortstop out of a high school in Tampa Bay. Gary Sheffield was one of the most feared hitters in baseball during his playing days. He posted a career WAR of 60.2. In 1992, the New York Yankees took a tall, skinny shortstop out of a Michigan high school with the sixth pick. Derek Jeter became the face of Major League Baseball for almost two decades. He posted a career WAR of 71.8. Jeter will most likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Bonds is the all time home run leader and should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. And for similar reasons, despite over 500 home runs and an OPS over .900, Sheffield was not, but should have been, a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There is a second tier of players that were also taken with the sixth overall pick in an MLB Draft. Zack Greinke was the sixth overall pick out of high school in 2002. He was at 42.0 WAR coming into this season. That is just ahead of Andy Van Slyke (41.2 WAR) who was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 1979. Kevin McReynolds (29.9) was the top pick of the Padres in 1981. John Mayberry (24.7) was the Astros top pick in 1967. The Cardinals selected Terry Kennedy (21.5) with the sixth overall pick in 1977. Spike Owen (12.5) was the Mariners first round pick in 1982. Former Twins outfielder Ken Landreaux (10.4) was the Angels first round pick in 1976. Former Rays outfielder Rocco Baldelli (10.2) was the sixth pick in the 2000 draft. If not for his injuries, his numbers could have been greater. Of 50 sixth overall picks in the MLB draft, only those 11 players have posted a WAR of 10 for their career. To be fair, there are players selected with the sixth overall pick in recent years who are likely to surpass 10 WAR in the next few years. That includes Washington Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon and New York Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler. The last three #6 picks were Albert Almora (Cubs 2012), Colin Moran (Marlins 2013), and Alex Jackson (Mariners 2014). Obviously they have yet to play in the big leagues and could alter these numbers. Of the 50 players taken with the sixth overall pick, 13 players have a negative WAR or 0 WAR. Another 14 of them never (or have not yet) played in the big leagues. Twins fans will likely remember the 1998 draft. The Minnesota Twins took a left-handed starting pitcher. He was very successful in college baseball while playing at powerhouse Arizona State University. He was said to have great mechanics and had worked with his father all the way up. Ryan Mills never pitched in a big league game. The draft is one way for an organization to accumulate talent. Having a high draft pick certainly should increase the odds of getting a more talented, elite-level prospect. But it doesn’t guarantee anything. We would all love for whoever the Twins pick this year to become the next Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield or Derek Jeter. We should also be thrilled if that player becomes the next Zack Greinke or Andy Van Slyke. The important thing to remember is that it’s possible to get a Brian Dozier in the eighth round or a Kent Hrbek in the 17th round.
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As we continue to review information as the 2015 MLB Draft approaches, I thought it would be interesting to look back at players selected with the sixth overall pick. That is the pick that the Minnesota Twins will make on Monday, June 8. So often, we look at the draft and think that, especially with a high first-round pick, the team has to get it right. The team has to find a big league star. The reality is that the draft is a complete crap shoot and it is nearly impossible to predict which players will become big leaguers, much less perennial All Stars.I looked at all of the first-round draft picks going all the way back to the beginning. 1965 was the first year of the amateur draft. I lumped all of the first-round picks together and ran some fun pivot tables. Some of the results are interesting, even surprising. First, let’s take a look the Average WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the top 12 players selected each year. Admittedly, there is no perfect way of making the data mean a lot. The sample size is just too small. There have been 50 drafts, but the data is incomplete for anyone who continues to play. So, be sure to take this information with a grain of salt. Pick / Avg WAR 1 / 40.8 2 / 35.5 3 / 48.4 4 / 44.6 5 / 38.6 6 / 56.7 7 / 37.1 8 / 49.2 9 / 28.8 10 / 34.5 11 / 26.3 12 / 32.0 The data on this chart shows that the #6 pick has proven to be the best over the history of the MLB Draft. At 56.7 WAR, the #6 spot is 7.5 WAR ahead of the next highest position, the #8 spot. Now, the #6 spot has produced some of the best baseball players in history. The Pittsburgh Pirates took an outfielder from Arizona State with the sixth pick of the 1985 MLB Draft. Barry Bonds turned into one of the best hitters of all time. He posted 162.4 WAR.The Milwaukee Brewers drafted a shortstop out of a high school in Tampa Bay. Gary Sheffield was one of the most feared hitters in baseball during his playing days. He posted a career WAR of 60.2.In 1992, the New York Yankees took a tall, skinny shortstop out of a Michigan high school with the sixth pick. Derek Jeter became the face of Major League Baseball for almost two decades. He posted a career WAR of 71.8.Jeter will most likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Bonds is the all time home run leader and should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. And for similar reasons, despite over 500 home runs and an OPS over .900, Sheffield was not, but should have been, a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There is a second tier of players that were also taken with the sixth overall pick in an MLB Draft. Zack Greinke was the sixth overall pick out of high school in 2002. He was at 42.0 WAR coming into this season. That is just ahead of Andy Van Slyke (41.2 WAR) who was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 1979. Kevin McReynolds (29.9) was the top pick of the Padres in 1981. John Mayberry (24.7) was the Astros top pick in 1967. The Cardinals selected Terry Kennedy (21.5) with the sixth overall pick in 1977. Spike Owen (12.5) was the Mariners first round pick in 1982. Former Twins outfielder Ken Landreaux (10.4) was the Angels first round pick in 1976. Former Rays outfielder Rocco Baldelli (10.2) was the sixth pick in the 2000 draft. If not for his injuries, his numbers could have been greater. Of 50 sixth overall picks in the MLB draft, only those 11 players have posted a WAR of 10 for their career. To be fair, there are players selected with the sixth overall pick in recent years who are likely to surpass 10 WAR in the next few years. That includes Washington Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon and New York Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler. The last three #6 picks were Albert Almora (Cubs 2012), Colin Moran (Marlins 2013), and Alex Jackson (Mariners 2014). Obviously they have yet to play in the big leagues and could alter these numbers. Of the 50 players taken with the sixth overall pick, 13 players have a negative WAR or 0 WAR. Another 14 of them never (or have not yet) played in the big leagues. Twins fans will likely remember the 1998 draft. The Minnesota Twins took a left-handed starting pitcher. He was very successful in college baseball while playing at powerhouse Arizona State University. He was said to have great mechanics and had worked with his father all the way up. Ryan Mills never pitched in a big league game. The draft is one way for an organization to accumulate talent. Having a high draft pick certainly should increase the odds of getting a more talented, elite-level prospect. But it doesn’t guarantee anything. We would all love for whoever the Twins pick this year to become the next Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield or Derek Jeter. We should also be thrilled if that player becomes the next Zack Greinke or Andy Van Slyke. The important thing to remember is that it’s possible to get a Brian Dozier in the eighth round or a Kent Hrbek in the 17th round. Click here to view the article
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