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The Twins recently won the 5th overall pick; how much fruit has that slot borne in MLB history? Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports For the Twins, the history of the 5th overall pick is short and straightforward: Nick Gordon and B.J. Garbe. Garbe—an outfielder drafted out of Moses Lake, Washington, in 1999—quickly flamed out in the minors with a bat made of balsa wood. Gordon, however, scrapped through some disappointing minor league seasons to break out with a 113 OPS+ on the Twins last season. He looks to be a future consistent big league ballplayer. Side ramble: that Moses Lake team in 1999 also featured future Twin and negative WAR enthusiast Ryan Doumit who went in the 2nd round that year. Jason Cooper, an outfielder also on that team, eschewed a 2nd round selection from the Phillies for Stanford and eventually ended up with the St. Paul Saints. As someone who has frequently driven through that town, Moses Lake is worthwhile only for the gas you need to make it beyond Spokane. To have three legitimate MLB prospects is unheard of. What a weird time. For major league history as a whole, the 5th overall pick contains fascinating pitchers and hitters, names whose baseball influence flows into the present day and who are necessary to tell baseball’s story. There are three MVP winners, two Cy Young winners, and six players with more than 40 rWAR. But, oddly, no player drafted 5th overall has made the hall of fame. Let’s look at the list of players with more than 10 rWAR: That top six is as strong of a collection of players as you’ll find; add them up, and you have 4 MVP awards, 1 Cy Young award, 28 All-Star selections, 18 Silver Sluggers, 11 Gold Gloves, and 3 Rookie of Year awards. Again, no player resides in the hall—although Dale Murphy owns a strong case, and Buster Posey will surely enter when he’s eligible—but these are all memorable and great players. Taking off the nostalgia glasses and looking at only recent picks tells a far less impressive tale: Kyle Tucker is good! Very good, in fact. Drew Pomeranz has been inconsistent, but an 11-season MLB career is far from disappointing. Then, errr, Jonathan India had a great rookie season in 2021! And Kyle Wright finally broke out in 2022! Alright, it’s a mixed class; there are two firmly established big league regulars with a sprinkling of talented players held back by a few flaws they have yet to shed. If you want to be optimistic, every player drafted 5th overall between 2004 and 2019—except for Matt Hobgood in 2009—has at least made the majors, so there’s a good chance the player the Twins draft will impact the big-league club in some fashion. While this article is fun, it means almost nothing; invisible forces don’t grip the 5th overall pick, cursing whomever the Twins take to be a Hall of Very Good player. Whoever that player is, their story is up to them, not based on a hex placed by Bubba Starling or Kyle Zimmer. There’s a good chance that player ends up a quality, everyday ballplayer for the Twins, and that’s something to be excited for. View full article

On April 12, 2008, Evan Longoria made his major league debut with the Tampa Bay Rays. Six days later, he signed a six year, $17.5 million contract with the team that included three option years which really made it a nine year, $47.5 million deal. Miguel Sano burst onto the scene and has now played 40 games for the Twins. The topic of signing him to a long-term contract has already become a talker on Twitter and on local radio air waves. So, I thought I would take a few minutes to think about what a long-term contract could potentially mean for Miguel Sano and the Twins.Of course, it turned into a lot of work. Trying to find similar contracts wasn’t easy. A lot of players sign long-term deals to eat up some arbitration years and buy out a couple of years of free agency. In the last 15 years, the Twins have done that with the following players (and some that didn’t work out as well): Joe Mauer – 4 years, $33 million - bought out three years of arbitration and a year of free agency.Torii Hunter – 4 years, $32 million – bought out two years of arbitration and two years of free agency. It included an option year that made it a five year, $42 million deal.Michael Cuddyer – 3 years, $24 million – bought out one year of arbitration and two years of free agency.Justin Morneau – 6 years, $80 million – bought out two years of arbitration and four years of free agency.Johan Santana – 4 years, $39.75 million – bought out two years of arbitration and two free agent years.Joe Nathan – 4 years, $47 million – That came after two separate two year deals.If the Twins go that route, they can wait until after the 2019 or 2020 season to try to lock him up long term. It may make sense. The sample size and his track record will be much more telling than a 40-game sample. However, here are some recently signed deals for players who waited until they were arbitration eligible to sign long-term deals.Mike Trout – 6 years, $144.5 million – Trout is obviously in a world all of his own, so this would be the ceiling for a potential deal. He would have gone through his first arbitration year but instead signed the deal.Albert Pujols – 7 years, $100 million – This deal was almost a decade ago, but he, like Trout, should have had more MVP awards than he actually did. He avoided arbitration with this deal.Giancarlo Stanton – 13 years, $325 million – Stanton made $5.5 million in his first year of arbitration. The Marlins surprised many with the deal, though Stanton has an opt-out in six years, if he feels he can make more. The first six years of the deal are worth $107 million. The seven years after the opt-out would be worth $218 million.Ryan Howard – 3 year, $54 million – Howard set records before arbitration and made $10 million in year one of arbitration. He signed the three-year deal the next year and then got a huge deal later.Sano has less than a year of service time. As I said earlier, there are not many examples of players who signed long-term deals with less than one year of service time.Evan Longoria – 6 years, $17.5 million with three option years. As I mentioned above, it turned into a nine year, $47.5 million deal. He remains with the Rays and has signed another long-term deal to stick there.Ryan Braun – 8 years, $45 million – Braun came up about the same time Sano did and the next offseason reached this deal. He proved to be well worth it and has signed another long-term deal.Those two deals were made about eight years ago, and inflation and new national TV deals mean that Sano should make a bit more than they have. Let’s play a couple of scenarios out. Let’s say that Sano becomes a perennial All- Star, maybe even an MVP candidate. Let’s estimate what he would make from year-to-year if the Twins and Sano went year-to-year. 2016: $550,000, 2017: $650,000, 2018: $800,000 (pre-arbitration, $2.0 million)2019: $7 million, 2020: $14 million, 2021: $20 million (arbitration years, $41 million)That would be $43 million for six years.At that point, he would become a free agent. He would have teams lining up for his services and $30 million annual salaries might be the starting point for negotiations. So, after looking at the contracts of mentioned above, plus the long-term contracts of All-Stars like Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt, let me try to lay out what a long-term deal could look like for Miguel Sano and the Twins. Pre-Arbitration – 2016: $600,000, 2017: $700,000, 2018: $1 million ($2.3 million)Arbitration Buy-Out – 2019: $5 million, 2020: $8 million, 2021: $12 million ($25 million)Free Agency Buy-Out – 2022: $18 million, 2023: $20 million, 2024: $30 million option with $8 million buyout ($46 million)That equates to an 8 year, $73.3 million deal, with a team option.Why the Twins Should do this deal? The term ‘cost certainty’ comes up when these types of deals are made. Rather than going year to year and not knowing what it’ll cost, they will have one certain contract for eight years. Also, if Sano becomes the player that many believe that he will become (a slugging, middle of the lineup hitter), this deal would give them at least two to three extra years with the slugger. They would also potentially save a bunch of money to spend elsewhere, including a similar deal with Byron Buxton or others. He’s 22, and eight years would take him through his 20s, his best years. Why the Twins Should Not do this deal? That’d be a $73 million risk. What if he gets hurt? What if he strikes out 240 times every season and never makes an adjustment? Knowing the make-up for Sano, there is little concern that he will take the money and stop working, but how a player will handle that kind of financial security has to factor into the discussion. Most believe that he will be a star, but there is risk. As Nick wrote yesterday, the Twins have tied themselves to some big contracts in recent years that have not yet paid off. Why Miguel Sano Should do this deal? Can you imagine being offered $73 million when you’re 22 years old? That kind of money takes care of Sano and his family for generations to come. He can still become a free agent at age 30 and get another long-term deal. Why Miguel Sano Should Not do this deal? If he truly wants to optimize his earning potential, it makes the most sense for him to go year-to-year. He would then become a free agent at age 28 and be set up for a ten-year deal if things play out right. It is an interesting discussion, and likely one that we will have regarding Byron Buxton in the next year or two as well. Who knows? Maybe they’ll pull a Parise-Suter and sign equal contracts to stick around together for the next eight to ten years. What would you do? Reach out to Sano’s agent (Rob Plummer) now, or wait a couple of years? Click here to view the article