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Now before I get into the moves, let's figure out what the goal should be. Even with the budget dropping, I'd still want to present a team that could have a conceivable chance at contending, at least if everything went right. The new front office is going to create some positive buzz, and you wouldn't want to lose that by staging a massive fire sale. There's also the issue of building up the organization. Everything's about to change, and I'd prefer Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to devote as much time as needed getting the details right on how the org is structured and who else is hired even more so than building up the 2017 roster. I'd be fine with a quiet offseason if it meant amazing people were being hired into the front office, scouting department, etc. Okay, on to arbitration. These would be mainly budget cuts, but I would non-tender Trevor Plouffe and Brandon Kintzler. Both players could provide value to this year's team, but I'm not sure if either could surpass even their projected arbitration salaries on the open market. After watching his career for so long, it will be tough to watch Plouffe go, but it's time. I like Kintzler, but it's easy to find scrap heap relievers willing to sign minor league deals. I was tempted to let Hector Santiago go to open up some payroll, but with starting pitching being the team's biggest need I wouldn't want to downgrade the rotation any more than it already is. On top of that, I still think Santiago is a respectable pitcher. Yes, he'll walk his fare share of guys and give up homers, but he has a 103 ERA+ over six years. I think Santiago was tinkering with things when he first came to Minnesota (8.17 ERA in Aug.), but then went back to his usual formula at the end of the year (3.75 ERA in Sept./Oct.). Even with non-tendering Plouffe and Kintzler there's not a lot of room left in the budget for free agents. I'd like to leave the door open for John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver or Stuart Turner to establish themselves but it's obvious the Twins need a major league catcher. I think Geovany Soto represents the best buying opportunity in terms of bargain basement backstops in this year's free agent class. Soto, who turns 34 in January, signed a one-year, $2.8 million deal with the Angels last offseason and only played 28 games. Let's say we sign him for one-year, $2.25 million. Staying on the field has been a huge issue for Soto the last four seasons, but when healthy he's played well. Over those last four years, Soto has only 567 plate appearances, but his .431 slugging percentage is actually ahead of top free agent catchers Wilson Ramos (.429) and Matt Wieters (.422) over that same span. His defense is probably average at best, but that would still be an upgrade over Kurt Suzuki. An added bonus is Soto is Puerto Rican. To me, probably the most important thing of 2017 is the development of Jose Berrios. I think it could be extremely helpful to find a veteran to guide him as a player. It would be even better if that person could also relate to him personally and help him blossom into the beast we all believe he can become. I'd also like to see a legit major league shortstop added, but the market is extremely thin. Ruben Tejada signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal last offseason, and while he barely played it wouldn't surprise me that due to the thin market and his age (he's only 27) he gets a decent raise. We'll also put him down for one-year, $2.25 million. You don't get much from the bat, but he's been productive against lefties (.362 career OBP), is a decent defender at shortstop and can play second and third as well. And that's it. Those are the only major league contracts, at least. I'd bring in a few guys, particularly pitchers, on minor league deals and see what happens in spring training. I'd be particularly interested in a reunion with veteran Sean Burnett, who spent the bulk of last year pitching to a 2.15 ERA with Rochester. So there's gotta be a big trade, right? Nope, sorry. Not right away at least. If I'm trading away Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana I'm assuming the team has no shot at competing in 2017 or '18. I'm not ready to do that out of the gate. Pretty boring, I know. While there wouldn't be any ground breaking moves, it's the way the roster gets filled out where things get interesting. Starting Lineup C-Geovany Soto $2.25M 1B-Joe Mauer (vs. RHP) $23M 2B-Brian Dozier $6M 3B-Jorge Polanco $0.5M SS-Eduardo Escobar $2.9M LF-Eddie Rosario $0.5M CF-Byron Buxton $0.5M RF-Max Kepler $0.5M DH-Miguel Sano $0.5M Bench Kennys Vargas (starting 1B vs. LHP) $0.5M John Ryan Murphy $0.5M Robbie Grossman $0.5M Ruben Tejada $2.25M Rotation Ervin Santana $13.5M Hector Santiago $8.6M Kyle Gibson $3.5M Jose Berrios $0.5M Phil Hughes $13.2M Bullpen Tyler Duffey $0.5M Trevor May $0.5M J.T. Chargios $0.5M Taylor Rogers $0.5M Ryan Pressly $1.1M Glen Perkins $6.5M Michael Tonkin $0.5M Adding in the $2.75M owed to Byungho Park, that's an Opening Day payroll of $92.55 million. Missing from this team is Danny Santana, who at this point I'd expect to clear waivers. There are a lot of familiar faces in this bunch, but in slightly different places. Though I've committed positions to each guy in the starting lineup, it's open for a lot of flexibility. What the signing of Tejada does is provide enough infield depth so you don't have to play Polanco at short or Sano at third. In the big picture, I could see Engelb Vielma being ready to be a glove-first MLB shortstop by midseason 2017 with Nick Gordon probably around a year behind him. So I'm not interested in trying to make Polanco stick at shortstop. Putting Polanco at third may seem odd, but that is a weak position in the minors for the Twins. Unlike shortstop, it's difficult to look at the current crop of talent and see multiple options coming up the pipeline any time within the next year or two. No, Polanco did not look good at third base in a short sample last season, but I think his skills translate better there than shortstop and with a spring training learning the position maybe we see better results. If he sticks, you have a legit long-term solution at third, so no need to try to make Sano work there. Just let him mash at DH. Out in the bullpen, I'd combat any disappointment Duffey or May would have about not cracking the rotation by letting them duke it out for the closer role in spring training. If it were totally up to me, I'd probably have May in the rotation and instead give Hughes the opportunity to pitch at the back end of the bullpen. He's done it before. But with his contract, I doubt that if he's healthy he'll be doing anything but starting. We'll say that's an ownership decision, out of my hands. Speaking of health, there are always extra days off in April, so even if Hughes and/or Perkins aren't back to 100 percent, you wouldn't have to lean on either of them early on. If you didn't feel confident even easing them in and they start the year on the DL, Adalberto Mejia becomes the fifth starter and either Ryan O'Rourke or Buddy Boshers joins the pen. If we get to July and somehow this team is over .500, I'd aim to make major improvements to the bullpen and try to add another starting pitcher. You wouldn't want to sell off the farm, but operating under $100 million with a cost controlled core, this team would be well placed to take on salary. Sometimes that means you don't need to give up your top prospects. If we get to July and this team is below .500, we're open for business. Dozier and Santana are traded for sure, along with any other vets with trade value. You maybe even listen on a young guy or two. And the returns I'd seek wouldn't be guys on the cusp of the major leagues, I'd aim for lower-level prospects who would be more likely to make an impact in 2018 or 2019. What do you think? Should I tweet this out to Thad Levine?
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- jorge polanco
- brian dozier
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The offseason is officially underway and it's time to play everybody's favorite game: November Fantasy Front Office Madness! Er, I guess everybody else is calling this their offseason blueprint. If you'd like to play along at home, the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook came out earlier this month, and along with an offseason blueprint from the Twins Daily regulars it includes everything you need to lay out your own future for the team. Several others have already joined in on the blueprint building, including Cody Christie and Cold Omaha's Brandon Warne, This is a lot of fun to do, if you don't like the blueprints I've laid below, head over to the forum (where there are already a few examples) or post a blog with your own plan, I love reading these things. All right, lets get down to it. First things first, you have to know what you're working with. After the worst season in franchise history, I'd expect the Pohlads would want to cut some payroll. Attendance dropped about 11.5%, so I'll build a similar reduction into my budget, aiming for around $93 million.Now before I get into the moves, let's figure out what the goal should be. Even with the budget dropping, I'd still want to present a team that could have a conceivable chance at contending, at least if everything went right. The new front office is going to create some positive buzz, and you wouldn't want to lose that by staging a massive fire sale. There's also the issue of building up the organization. Everything's about to change, and I'd prefer Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to devote as much time as needed getting the details right on how the org is structured and who else is hired even more so than building up the 2017 roster. I'd be fine with a quiet offseason if it meant amazing people were being hired into the front office, scouting department, etc. Okay, on to arbitration. These would be mainly budget cuts, but I would non-tender Trevor Plouffe and Brandon Kintzler. Both players could provide value to this year's team, but I'm not sure if either could surpass even their projected arbitration salaries on the open market. After watching his career for so long, it will be tough to watch Plouffe go, but it's time. I like Kintzler, but it's easy to find scrap heap relievers willing to sign minor league deals. I was tempted to let Hector Santiago go to open up some payroll, but with starting pitching being the team's biggest need I wouldn't want to downgrade the rotation any more than it already is. On top of that, I still think Santiago is a respectable pitcher. Yes, he'll walk his fare share of guys and give up homers, but he has a 103 ERA+ over six years. I think Santiago was tinkering with things when he first came to Minnesota (8.17 ERA in Aug.), but then went back to his usual formula at the end of the year (3.75 ERA in Sept./Oct.). Even with non-tendering Plouffe and Kintzler there's not a lot of room left in the budget for free agents. I'd like to leave the door open for John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver or Stuart Turner to establish themselves but it's obvious the Twins need a major league catcher. I think Geovany Soto represents the best buying opportunity in terms of bargain basement backstops in this year's free agent class. Soto, who turns 34 in January, signed a one-year, $2.8 million deal with the Angels last offseason and only played 28 games. Let's say we sign him for one-year, $2.25 million. Staying on the field has been a huge issue for Soto the last four seasons, but when healthy he's played well. Over those last four years, Soto has only 567 plate appearances, but his .431 slugging percentage is actually ahead of top free agent catchers Wilson Ramos (.429) and Matt Wieters (.422) over that same span. His defense is probably average at best, but that would still be an upgrade over Kurt Suzuki. An added bonus is Soto is Puerto Rican. To me, probably the most important thing of 2017 is the development of Jose Berrios. I think it could be extremely helpful to find a veteran to guide him as a player. It would be even better if that person could also relate to him personally and help him blossom into the beast we all believe he can become. I'd also like to see a legit major league shortstop added, but the market is extremely thin. Ruben Tejada signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal last offseason, and while he barely played it wouldn't surprise me that due to the thin market and his age (he's only 27) he gets a decent raise. We'll also put him down for one-year, $2.25 million. You don't get much from the bat, but he's been productive against lefties (.362 career OBP), is a decent defender at shortstop and can play second and third as well. And that's it. Those are the only major league contracts, at least. I'd bring in a few guys, particularly pitchers, on minor league deals and see what happens in spring training. I'd be particularly interested in a reunion with veteran Sean Burnett, who spent the bulk of last year pitching to a 2.15 ERA with Rochester. So there's gotta be a big trade, right? Nope, sorry. Not right away at least. If I'm trading away Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana I'm assuming the team has no shot at competing in 2017 or '18. I'm not ready to do that out of the gate. Pretty boring, I know. While there wouldn't be any ground breaking moves, it's the way the roster gets filled out where things get interesting. Starting Lineup C-Geovany Soto $2.25M 1B-Joe Mauer (vs. RHP) $23M 2B-Brian Dozier $6M 3B-Jorge Polanco $0.5M SS-Eduardo Escobar $2.9M LF-Eddie Rosario $0.5M CF-Byron Buxton $0.5M RF-Max Kepler $0.5M DH-Miguel Sano $0.5M Bench Kennys Vargas (starting 1B vs. LHP) $0.5M John Ryan Murphy $0.5M Robbie Grossman $0.5M Ruben Tejada $2.25M Rotation Ervin Santana $13.5M Hector Santiago $8.6M Kyle Gibson $3.5M Jose Berrios $0.5M Phil Hughes $13.2M Bullpen Tyler Duffey $0.5M Trevor May $0.5M J.T. Chargios $0.5M Taylor Rogers $0.5M Ryan Pressly $1.1M Glen Perkins $6.5M Michael Tonkin $0.5M Adding in the $2.75M owed to Byungho Park, that's an Opening Day payroll of $92.55 million. Missing from this team is Danny Santana, who at this point I'd expect to clear waivers. There are a lot of familiar faces in this bunch, but in slightly different places. Though I've committed positions to each guy in the starting lineup, it's open for a lot of flexibility. What the signing of Tejada does is provide enough infield depth so you don't have to play Polanco at short or Sano at third. In the big picture, I could see Engelb Vielma being ready to be a glove-first MLB shortstop by midseason 2017 with Nick Gordon probably around a year behind him. So I'm not interested in trying to make Polanco stick at shortstop. Putting Polanco at third may seem odd, but that is a weak position in the minors for the Twins. Unlike shortstop, it's difficult to look at the current crop of talent and see multiple options coming up the pipeline any time within the next year or two. No, Polanco did not look good at third base in a short sample last season, but I think his skills translate better there than shortstop and with a spring training learning the position maybe we see better results. If he sticks, you have a legit long-term solution at third, so no need to try to make Sano work there. Just let him mash at DH. Out in the bullpen, I'd combat any disappointment Duffey or May would have about not cracking the rotation by letting them duke it out for the closer role in spring training. If it were totally up to me, I'd probably have May in the rotation and instead give Hughes the opportunity to pitch at the back end of the bullpen. He's done it before. But with his contract, I doubt that if he's healthy he'll be doing anything but starting. We'll say that's an ownership decision, out of my hands. Speaking of health, there are always extra days off in April, so even if Hughes and/or Perkins aren't back to 100 percent, you wouldn't have to lean on either of them early on. If you didn't feel confident even easing them in and they start the year on the DL, Adalberto Mejia becomes the fifth starter and either Ryan O'Rourke or Buddy Boshers joins the pen. If we get to July and somehow this team is over .500, I'd aim to make major improvements to the bullpen and try to add another starting pitcher. You wouldn't want to sell off the farm, but operating under $100 million with a cost controlled core, this team would be well placed to take on salary. Sometimes that means you don't need to give up your top prospects. If we get to July and this team is below .500, we're open for business. Dozier and Santana are traded for sure, along with any other vets with trade value. You maybe even listen on a young guy or two. And the returns I'd seek wouldn't be guys on the cusp of the major leagues, I'd aim for lower-level prospects who would be more likely to make an impact in 2018 or 2019. What do you think? Should I tweet this out to Thad Levine? Click here to view the article
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- jorge polanco
- brian dozier
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