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The Twins infield depth took a real hit when it was announced that Jorge Polanco would have to serve an 80-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs. As it stands, every Twins infielder on the Twins 40-man roster is also on the 25-man roster. Again, for these projections I used PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus), along with ZiPS and Steamer (via Fangraphs) to group with with my personal projections for each player in the Twins infield. Jason Castro, C It’s hard to find a player that has been more consistent than Jason Castro has been over the last four seasons. In each of those seasons Castro has played between 104 and 126 games, hit between 10 and 14 home runs, scored between 38 and 49 runs, had wRC+ between 80 and 93, provided above average defense at catcher, and collected an fWAR between 1.2 and 1.6. This probably explains why the projects for Castro are nearly identical across the board. Mitch Garver, C Mitch Garver had a breakout season in AAA last year and was voted as the Twins 2017 Minor League Hitter of the Year by the Twins Daily staff. Garver has the bat to be a lot more of an offensive weapon than most backup catchers around the league. Garver also provides a quality right-handed bat for the lineup, which sets him up well to work in a platoon with the left-handed hitting Castro. Ehrie Adrianza, INF Before the Polanco suspension, Ehrie Adrianza’s role with the Twins in 2018 was going to be much if the same as it was last year. However, Adrianza will now need to take on a bigger role in the lineup as he will most likely split some time with Eduardo Escobar at short. Given that Adrianza is the better fielder of the two, I would expect to see him in the lineup whenever Kyle Gibson is on the hill to provide a little better infield defense for the groundball pitcher. Brian Dozier, 2B Brian Dozier has stepped up in a big way for the Twins over the last few seasons, earning MVP votes in each of the last three. The projection systems are being a little cautious for Dozier this season, and I am as well. For me, the biggest reason is it is difficult to project a player to have better than a 4.0 fWAR season (which is still a really good year) unless they are one of the top 10-20 players in the game. Let’s hope we are all wrong and Dozier blows these projections out of the water. Eduardo Escobar, SS At the end of 2017, Eduardo Escobar was thrust into the role of full-time third baseman after Miguel Sano went down with an injury, and did he ever take advantage of it. From August 20th on (the day after the Sano injury) Escobar hit 10 home runs and had an OPS of .826. The Twins are hoping Escobar can step up again this year and fill their hole at short. Joe Mauer, 1B/DH After years of struggling with symptoms from a concussion that forced him out from behind the plate, Joe Mauer finally seemed like his old self again last year. If Joe wants to continue his career in Minnesota beyond 2018, he will need another season like that this year. Joe’s improvements defensively at first have been well noted and will make him the primary option to play there over Logan Morrison throughout the season. Logan Morrison, 1B/DH Entering the offseason, Logan Morrison wasn’t anywhere on the Twins radar. However, with the unusual free agency, Morrison’s value plummeted to a point where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just couldn’t pass him up. In 2017, Morrison tallied 38 home runs, after never hitting more than 23 in any season in his career. While the projection systems rely mostly on numbers that would suggest he should regress this season, I see a player who made a change in his swing that caused the spike in his home run output. This is why I believe that he can repeat that performance again this season. Miguel Sano, 3B Miguel Sano will avoid a suspension to begin the season after assault allegations were made against him this winter. On the field, the Twins are showing faith in Sano’s ability to stay at third, at least in the short term. Offensively, there is no question about Sano’s power, but questions do remain about his ability to stay healthy, and if his supporting numbers were propped up on his .375 BABIP last season. Jorge Polanco, SS Jorge Polanco broke out of his shell over the last two months of 2017, which is what makes his 80-game suspension to start the season all the more disheartening. Polanco is set to come off of his suspension on June 30th, which will be in the middle of a three-game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Only time will tell if Polanco’s hot stretch was truly a break-out, or if it was more of a product of a small sample size.

It is time for round two of my player projections for the 2018 Minnesota Twins. In the first edition I broke down the starting pitchers, and now it is time to take a look at the bullpen. The Twins bullpen received an added boost this offseason, after replacing Matt Belisle, Dillon Gee and Buddy Boshers with Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke. Hopefully these improvements can elevate the Twins bullpen out of the gutter it has been in during recent years. So, how good will the Twins bullpen be this year? Here are my projections for each player in the Twins bullpen, joined by the PECOTA projections, as found on Baseball Prospectus, along with the ZiPS and Steamer projections, which can be found on Fangraphs. RHP Fernando Rodney Fernando Rodney got off to a terrible start in 2017, with a 12.60 ERA through the month of April. However, after April, Rodney was lights out with a 2.38 ERA and a .442 OPS against. This was a driving factor in the Twins giving the 41-year-old an opportunity to be their closer for 2018. RHP Addison Reed Heading into the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors has Addison Reed ranked as their 3rd best free agent relief pitcher, in what was a very deep class. Reed has dominated over the past two seasons, posting a 2.40 ERA over 153.2 innings on his way to the 8th best fWAR among all MLB relievers during that time. If he can continue this success, he could be Paul Molitor’s go to option when the Twins are in a jam. RHP Trevor Hildenberger The funky throwing right-handler may have been the surprise of the Twins bullpen last season. Trevor Hildenberger thrived off his 7.33 strikeout to walk ratio, which was aided by his impeccable control and deceptive delivery. Hildenberger’s delivery isn’t the only deceptive part of his game, as he routinely has a 15-20 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup. Another benefit that Hildenberger brings to the Twins bullpen is his effectiveness against both righties and lefties. This could be a key factor in a bullpen whose top three pitchers are all right-handed. LHP Zach Duke From 2014-2016, Zach Duke made 226 relief appearances, the 3rd most in the MLB over that time. However, after the 2016 season, Duke underwent Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss most of 2017. When he did return, Duke looked like a completely different reliever. While he was still effective (a 3.93 ERA over 18.1 innings) his strikeout rate dropped from the 10.4 K/9 it was at from 2014-2016, down to 5.9 K/9. Some of this may be due to a small sample size, but it is something to keep an eye on this year. LHP Taylor Rogers After a decent rookie season in 2016, Rogers followed it up with a strong year in 2017. His 3.07 ERA ranked first among qualified relievers on the Twins last season. However, there were a couple areas of concern for Rogers in 2017. The first was his strikeout rate dropping by nearly 1.5 K/9 (down to 7.92), and the second was his walk rate raising by more than 1 BB/9 (up to 3.40). Rogers will need to see improvement in these numbers if he wants to keep building off the success he had last season. RHP Ryan Pressly Ryan Pressly was hit hard by the homer bug last year, giving up 10 in just 61.1 innings pitched. This lead to his spiked 4.70 ERA. However, Ryan Pressly is being pegged for a bounce back season in 2018, even more so from the projection systems than myself. A big reason for this was his HR/FB% in 2017 was double that of his career average entering the season. Part of this may have been influenced by the league wide home run surge, but Pressly seemed to be hit especially hard by it. Look for that to regress in 2018, and as a result an improved season from Pressly. RHP Tyler Duffey In 2017, Tyler Duffey mad the transition from the rotation to the bullpen where for the most part he was successful. His 4.94 ERA was largely inflated because of five bad outings, where he gave up a combined 17 earned runs over just 3.1 innings. In Duffey’s 51 other outings, he combined for a 2.93 ERA across 67.2 innings. Given the added depth to the pitching staff in 2018, Duffey has been demoted back down to Rochester, where he will have the opportunity to work out the kinks that lead to his bad outings last year. RHP Alan Busenitz Alan Busenitz had a strong rookie debut for the Twins last season and turned out to be one of Molitor’s most trusted arms out of the bullpen down the stretch. However, Busenitz is another pitcher who fell victim to the added depth in the bullpen and was optioned to AAA. One big area of concern for Busenitz was the fact that his strong 1.99 ERA was propped up on his 86.6 left-on-base percentage, which is a nearly unsustainable number for a pitcher with just a 6.54 K/9. LHP Gabriel Moya Gabriel Moya was having a lights out season for AA Jackson (Diamondbacks) last season, which sparked the Twins interest in parting ways with John Ryan Murphy to acquire him. As a part of the Twins organization Moya’s success continued, and he earned a call up straight from AA, after putting up a microscopic 0.77 ERA, along with 13.4 K/9 and just 2.3 BB/9 over 58.1 innings. With Phil Hughes beginning the season on the DL, Moya will get another opportunity in the Twins bullpen to start the year. RHP Tyler Kinley The Rule 5 selection of Tyler Kinley left many people scratching their heads, especially since the Twins exposed Nick Burdi and Luke Bard to the draft in the process. Kinley has a fastball that can touch triple-digits, but he doesn’t seem to know which direction the ball will go. The Twins are hoping Kinley can build off the success he had in the Dominican Winter League, where he gave up just 1 run over 19 innings. Kinley was in a battle with Moya for the final roster spot, until today when Hughes got hurt, opening the door for both pitchers. RHP Trevor May Trevor May’s 2017 ended before it even started after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March. Trevor is targeting a return in either late May or early June. While many have hopes of Trevor returning to the rotation once his is healthy, I do not see that happening. He will most likely fit into the bullpen, where the team will most likely put a strict innings limit on him. RHP John Curtiss John Curtiss made his major league debut for the Twins last season, and it is safe to say that it did not go as planned for him (8.31 ERA over 8.2 innings). While this wasn’t good it is hard to take anything substantial out of such a small sample. Before his call up, Curtiss was one of Minnesota’s most effective minor league relievers in both AA and AAA. The big question for Curtiss will be his ability to control the strike zone. If he can figure that out he has the potential to be a back-end of the bullpen arm for the Twins.

With the 2018 season right around the corner, perhaps the biggest topic in baseball circles right now is player projections. Whether it is for fantasy purposes, or for trying to predict how your favorite team is going to play this season, people can’t get enough of them. So, I decided to create my own projections for each player on the Twins 40-man roster, and then see how my projections stack up versus some of the other more prominent projection systems. The systems that I used to compare are PECOTA, which is found on Baseball Prospectus, along with ZiPS and Steamer, which can both be found on Fangraphs. Please note that not all of the systems use the same formula when calculating WAR. Additionally, the ZiPS projections for playing time assume a full seasons worth of work, even for players who will most likely spend most of the season in the minor leagues. In the first edition we will be looking at the starting pitchers that are currently on the Twins 40-man roster. RHP Jose Berrios These projection systems are notorious for underrating potential year-to-year improvement from younger players. Personally, I see Jose Berrios taking another step forward in 2018. If Berrios can make this step forward, the Twins could be looking at the potential ACE of their staff. RHP Lance Lynn Much has been made about Lance Lynn’s 3.43 ERA in 2017 being much lower than his peripheral stats suggested it should be that. This explains a lot of low expectations that PECOTA and Steamer have for him. While I do see Lynn taking a step back this year, it is hard to see his ERA inflating by nearly a run and a half, especially from a guy who has never had an ERA above 3.97 in his career. RHP Jake Odorizzi In a very similar way to Lynn, Jake Odorizzi put up an ERA in 2017 that was a fair amount lower than his underlying numbers suggested. A couple factors that lead to this were the spike in his walk rate, which was nearly a walk per nine higher than his career average, and the increase in his HR/FB%, which rose from his 9.9% career average prior to 2017, up to 15.5% in 2017. If Odorizzi can bring these numbers back to his career norms, he should have no problem maintaining his numbers from last season. RHP Ervin Santana Ervin Santana got off to a great start last season, posting a 1.75 ERA through May. However, over the last four months of the season, Santana had an ERA over four. Given Santana’s age and track record, it can be expected that we will see more of the latter from Santana in 2018. The big question mark for Santana entering this season will be his ability to come back from the injury to his pitching hand. RHP Kyle Gibson Kyle Gibson is hoping to build off a strong end to 2017, where he posted a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts of the season. While this could be looked at as a sign of optimism that Gibson has turned a corner, the truth is Gibson benefited from facing weak offenses in those starts, as not one of his 8 opponents ranked higher than 19th in runs scored. RHP Phil Hughes Phil Hughes is viewed at by many as a thorn in the side of the Twins pitching staff. His inability to stay healthy, along with poor performance when he is healthy, have provided a real weak spot for the Twins over the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for the Twins, Hughes is still owed $26.4M over the next two seasons, which is about the only thing guaranteeing him a roster spot as we begin 2018. LHP Adalberto Mejia Adalberto Mejia was a fine pitcher for the Twins last season and looked to be a lock for the Twins rotation entering the winter. However, Mejia fell victim to the surprisingly slow offseason, which enabled the Twins to add two new starters to their rotation. With Mejia’s flexibility, given that he could still be optioned, he has become the odd man out in the Twins rotation. Mejia will most likely serve as the first man called up from AAA when the Twins need a spot start throughout the season, or if they need depth due to injuries. LHP Stephen Gonsalves If there is a minor league pitcher that I expect to breakout this year and help the Twins in 2018 it is Stephen Gonsalves. It is hard to remember the last time that the Twins had a pitching prospect with as high of a floor as Gonsalves. Unlike Mejia, whose opportunities with the big club might mostly be dictated on opportunity, Gonsalves has the ability to force the front office to find a spot for him on the MLB roster if he is pitching well enough in Rochester. RHP Fernando Romero The other minor league candidate that has a real shot of forcing his way into the 2018 Twins rotation is Fernando Romero. Romero was lights out throughout the spring and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. Romero isn’t as refined of a pitcher as Gonsalves quite yet, but he is quickly closing the gap. RHP Aaron Slegers Much like Mejia, Aaron Slegers is another pitcher who was hurt by the Twins additions of both Odorizzi and Lynn. If it wasn’t for that, Slegers would have had an opportunity to serve a bigger role for the Twins this year than he did in 2017. Though, as it stands, it is looking like Slegers will be pegged into the role of a spot starter again this season. RHP Felix Jorge Felix Jorge made a surprise start for the Twins in 2017, after getting called up from AA. After an unsuccessful outing, he was sent back to Chattanooga, where he continued his strong 2017 for the Lookouts. Jorge will most likely spend much of 2018 in Rochester and may get a spot start or two as a September call-up. LHP Dietrich Enns Acquired as part of the trade that sent Jamie Garcia and cash to the Yankees, Dietrich Enns is a pitcher that has had a lot of success at the minor league level, with a 1.88 ERA over 6 career minor league season. Enns will spend most of the season as part of the deep Rochester pitching staff, but if he is pitching well he will be in consideration to receive a spot start or two throughout the season. RHP Zack Littell As the other piece that the Twins received in the Jamie Garcia trade, Zack Littell is a little bit further away from the bigs than Enns. However, at just 22, and 2/3 of a season at AA under his belt, Littell is a pitcher with definite upside for the Twins. Despite this, Littell still remains a long shot to break through with the Twins before September. RHP Lewis Thorpe Lewis Thorpe was surprised himself when the Twins added him to the 40-man roster last November. It is hard to believe that Thorpe will have much of a shot at helping the big-league team in 2018, as he is still working his way back after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with injuries. Thorpe could see a few relief outings for the Twins in September if he stays healthy.

There is no question that Joe Mauer is one of the greatest Minnesota Twins to ever put on the uniform, and that he will one day see his number retired along with former Twins greats like Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew. Despite this, Mauer’s future as a player with the Twins after 2018 seems to be in question. Entering 2019, Mauer will be going into his age 36 season with what will at best be a slightly above average bat and good defense. The problem is he is limited to playing first base, and there are plenty of quality bats at first to go around. Additionally, first base is a position that is very limited in the upside a quality defensive player can bring. This will make it very easy for "Falvine" to replace Mauer with a quality player after his contract expires. I am sure most Twins fans, myself included, would like to see Joe Mauer play out the rest of his career in a Twins uniform. So, the question is, what will it take for that to happen? Joe Mauer Repeats His 2017 Season Mauer’s turnaround last season was a big part of the Twins improved level of play. A big reason for his success was his strikeout rate falling to 13.9%, the lowest it has been since 2012. Mauer also had by far his best defensive season since moving to first base. This resulted in a 2.3 fWAR season from the one-time MVP, twice as much as he put up in 2015 and 2016 combined. If Mauer can repeat his success again in 2018, he will still be a viable MLB option a first going into 2019. However, if he shows some regression, and returns to his previous form, it would be tough for Joe to even get an MLB contract next winter. Logan Morrison’s Option Doesn’t Get Picked Up Perhaps the surprise of the Twins offseason was inking Logan Morrison to a one year and $6.5 million contract, with a vesting option for a second year if he reaches 500 plate appearances this season. If this option gets picked up, it will take up one of the two potential spots that Joe Mauer could fill as a member of the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Additionally, bringing back Mauer to team up with Morrison as the first base/DH duo would still leave the Twins with the double lefty problem that currently exists. The front office was willing to make this work given the fact that Morrison is otherwise a steal at $6.5 million. Going into next offseason, there might be a few right-handed hitting options at first that might be more appealing to the Twins. Brent Rooker Isn’t MLB Ready for The Start of 2019 Even though Brent Rooker was drafted as an outfielder and did see roughly 75% of his playing time last season in left, many believe that he will eventually breakthrough with the Twins as either a first baseman or a designated hitter. The biggest reasons for this are his large 6’3” frame profiling better at first along with the crowed young outfield that the Twins already possess. If Rooker continues to tear up minor league pitching, the 23-year-old will fly up through the Twins system and could even push for a spot in 2018. Rooker also brings the element of a right-handed power bat that the Twins will need in 2019, especially if they lose Brian Dozier to free agency. Miguel Sano Can Stay at Third Base One of the biggest question marks that the Twins need to answer this season is the long-term ability for Miguel Sano to stay at third base. If Sano can somehow play an adequate third base (given both the titanium rod in his leg and the lack of ability he has shown in the past) it would be a near miracle. If Sano shows that he will be unable to stick at third, the most logical move would be to either first base or DH. This would create an even bigger log jam for Mauer to remain with the team given that Sano is under team control through at least the 2021 season. Joe Mauer Takes a Hometown Discount There is no question that the St. Paul native, who has only known one city for his whole life, would love to finish out his career in Minnesota. In fact, it is hard to think of many players in the history of Major League Baseball that had more of a reason to take a hometown discount than Joe Mauer. That being said, I am not Joe Mauer, so therefore I can definitively say whether or not he will be willing to take a hometown discount, and if so how much of one. That will be something that Joe will need to consider before he decides on his future next winter. As great as it would be for Joe Mauer to play out his career in Minnesota, it is hard to see that happening without at least three or four of these things happening. Given that the Twins would love to see Morrison play well enough to earn his option for 2019, and for Rooker to force their hand as soon as possible, it will be a catch 22 for Twins fans who wish for Mauer to stay. Hopefully, if 2018 is Joe’s last with the Twins, it will be because of how Morrison and Rooker play this season, and not because of how he plays.

After the addition of Logan Morrison over the weekend, it left many in Twins Territory wondering how would he fit into the lineup. Including the Twins Daily twitter account. This question drew a number of different responses from Twins fans, so I decided to dive into the numbers and construct what I believe to be the ideal Twins lineup. Just as it is worded in the tweet, I took this approach from the perspective that Sano will be able to play third base this season. I also see the lineup being constructed very differently depending on if the Twins are facing a righty or a lefty, so I created a lineup for both. So, let’s get into it. Against Right-Handed Starters 1st Joe Mauer 1B: Mauer is the ideal fit for the Twins leadoff position. His 0.384 OBP in 2017, ranked 5th among all qualified American League hitters. This ability to get on base is key for the leadoff role, as it gives the heart of the order a base-runner to drive in. 2nd Brian Dozier 2B: Dozier has spent the last season and a half in the leadoff spot for the Twins. Over that time, Dozier has hit 59 home runs. Unfortunately, just 25% of those home runs have been with at least one runner on base. By comparison the MLB average, over that time, is 41%. The biggest reason for this being that the leadoff hitter has the highest percentage of their plate appearances coming with nobody on-base, and by a wide margin at that. 3rd Logan Morrison DH: Last season Logan Morrison mashed righties to the tune of a .251/.365/.548 slash line, along with 32 home runs. Morrison’s 137 wRC+ against righties would have been the best mark on the Twins in 2017. 4th Miguel Sano 3B: I previously sited the fact that leadoff hitters have the smallest percentage of their plate appearances coming with runners on-base as the reason why the Twins should take Dozier out of the leadoff role. Well that same reasoning holds true as to why Sano fits perfect as the Twins clean-up hitter. Year in and year out, the 4th hitter in the lineup sees a higher percent of their plate appearances coming with runners on base than any other spot in the order. Last year that number stood at 48.6%. 5th Eddie Rosario LF: 2017 was a real breakout season for Eddie Rosario at the plate. Rosario saw much of that production come against right-handed pitchers, as his 135 wRC+ against them lead the team. 6th Max Kepler RF: Kepler’s struggles against lefties last season were well documented. However, Kepler excels against righties, and last year gathered a .272/.343/.484 slash line against them. Kepler also collected 47 of his 53 extra-base-hits in 2017 off of right-handed pitchers. 7th Jorge Polanco SS: Polanco really turned his offensive production around in the last two months of the season. Over that time Polanco collected a .393 wOBA against righties, the 21st highest mark in Major League Baseball (minimum 150 plate-appearances). 8th Jason Castro C: As the left-handed hitting member of the Twins catching duo, Castro will probably get a majority of the starts against right-handed starting pitchers. Castro is a solid hitting threat, and can put up numbers that most teams would take from a catcher hitting in the 8th spot in the order. 9th Byron Buxton CF: Even though Buxton made great strides at the end of last season, much of that production came against left-handed pitching. With the strength that the rest of the lineup possess against righties, Buxton will really help the Twins turn their lineup back over hitting 9th. The Twins might have one of the best lineups against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball. This is a great situation to be in given that a large majority of their games will come against right-handed starters, especially in the AL Central. Against Left-Handed Starters 1st Byron Buxton CF: Despite his rough start to the season, Buxton still finished with the Twins’ 3rd highest wOBA against lefties in 2017. His eye at the plate against left-handed pitchers is very strong, as he produced a 0.365 OBP against them last season. 2nd Joe Mauer 1B: As you may have noticed, I really like the idea of Joe Mauer hitting right behind Byron Buxton. The reason for this being that the best type of hitter to place behind a premier base stealing threat is a high-contact singles hitter, as it maximizes the benefit of stealing a base to get into scoring position. Additional, batting Mauer 2nd gives the Twins two strong on-base threats ahead of Dozier and Sano, who are two of the best right-handed power hitters in the league. 3rd Brian Dozier 2B: Normally you would like to see the lineup’s best hitter in the 2-hole. However, given the way the Twins lineup is constructed against lefties, I think their best chance to score runs is trying to get as many people as they can on-base in front of Dozier, so he can make the most of all the power that he has against them. 4th Miguel Sano 3B: I don’t really know what else there is to say, except Sano is just the ideal clean-up hitter for the Twins. Sano also provides great protection hitting right behind Dozier. 5th Logan Morrison DH: Much has been made about Morrison’s scorching numbers against right-handed pitchers in 2017. So, the fact that Morrison was still a solid hitter against lefties in 2017 might surprise you. In fact, his 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers would have been the 4th best mark by a Twin with at least 75 plate-appearances against a lefty last season. 6th Jorge Polanco SS: Perhaps the best part of Polanco’s late season turnaround was the fact that he was very productive from both sides of the plate. With his ability to be an all-around hitter as both a righty and a lefty, he could really help fill a hole in the Twins lineup against lefties. 7th Mitch Garver C: Garver posted strong numbers in AAA Rochester last season, and earned a call-up to the bigs at the end of the year. Garver’s right-handed bat could bring some much needed pop against lefties. If he shows that he can produce at the Major League level, Garver might see himself move up a few spots in the order. 8th Eddie Rosario LF: With all of the production that Rosario had against righties last season, those numbers didn’t cross over much to lefties, as he produced a mere .682 OPS against them. The most troubling part is the fact that he drew just 5 walks in 183 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. 9th Robbie Grossman/Zach Granite RF: Baring an injury to either Buxton, Rosario or Kepler, I do not see both Robbie Grossman and Zach Granite on the MLB roster this season. With that being said, I see the 9th spot in the order against lefties going to whichever player makes the team. Clearly the Twins lineup against left-handed pitchers isn’t nearly as strong as it is against righties. Given that realization, I think the lineup against left-handed starters will be a lot more interchangeable. I see this as a perfect opportunity to give some of the regulars a day off, and plug in some of the other bench pieces. I’m sure there are many of you who probably disagree with the way that I constructed these lineups. I would love to hear any changes that you would make to them, and your reasoning behind it.

After coming up short in their quest to sign Yu Darvish, the Twins were forced to turn their focus towards other pitchers on the free agent and trade markets in order to fill out their rotation. They have since added two starting pitchers, by taking a flyer on Anibal Sanchez, and making a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Theses moves added just under $9M to the Twins 2018 payroll, bringing the total to roughly $118M. However, it would be reasonable to assume that if the Twins were willing to offer Yu Darvish a $20M+ per year deal, they might have more money available to make another addition to the rotation. If the Twins were to make another move, many would assume it would be one of Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. According to a source close to Jon Heyman, he believes that Lance Lynn is a “pitcher of interest” for the Twins, and that he is favored by the Twins among the top three. An addition of Lance Lynn could be the move that takes the Twins rotation from one filled with question marks, to one with solidified depth. Right now, the Twins rotation to start the season would be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Alberto Mejia, and one of Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey or Anibal Sanchez. Adding Lynn would give the Twins five starters that they can trust in their rotation until Ervin Santana returns, and provide added depth if one of the other starters goes down with an injury during the season. Lance Lynn had a strong performance in 2017, posting a 3.43 ERA (4.75 xFIP) over 186.1 innings, after coming back from Tommy John surgery. However, the inflated xFIP, along with a career low .244 BABIP last season cause some hesitation in thinking that Lynn will be able to replicate those numbers again in 2018. Another area of concern for Lance Lynn is his fastball velocity. Lynn is a pitcher that relies heavily on his four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs, and last year he saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 92.4 MPH it was at in 2015, before his Tommy John surgery, down to 91.3 MPH. A 1.1 MPH drop may not sound like a lot, but when a pitcher is already throwing in the low 90’s every MPH is critical, and if that number were to drop any lower it could be detrimental for Lynn. There is one bright spot for Lynn coming off of 2017, and that was his 0.304 xwOBA. This ranked 45th amongst the 118 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 pitches last season. This suggests that Lynn was a slightly above average starting pitcher last season, and backs up his 3.43 ERA a lot better than his other peripheral metrics do. So, if the Twins really do have aspirations of signing Lance Lynn, what would it take to get him? At the beginning of the offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Lance Lynn would receive an offer of 4-years and $56M. Given the way the market has panned out this winter, it might be easy to assume that Lynn would receive an offer south of that mark. However, unlike Darvish, I don’t think there will be too big of a drop from this price, if there is one at all. A big reason for this being that earlier the offseason Tyler Chatwood signed a 3-year $38M deal with the Cubs. Given that Chatwood was considered to be a step down from Lynn entering this offseason, it would be hard to believe that Lynn would accept a deal that is equal to or less than that of Chatwood’s. If this is the case, it doesn’t leave the Twins a lot of wiggle room with either years of dollars, for them to come down from the 4-years and $56M projection. Additionally, Lance Lynn received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, if the Twins were to sign Lynn they would have to give up their 3rd highest pick in the 2018 First Year Player Draft (75th overall). Though, unlike previous years under the old CBA, the Twins would have had to give up their top unprotected pick (20th overall). So, by comparison, giving up the 75th pick in the draft for an established major league pitcher isn’t a terrible trade-off, but it is still a factor that the Twins front office will need to take into consideration before making an offer for Lynn. Personally, I would like to see the Twins add another piece to their rotation, but an addition of Lance Lynn, or Cobb and Arrieta for that matter, seems a bit risky to me. If they are able to swoop in and get Lynn at an absolute bargain, I think they should make the move, otherwise they might be better off staying put, and look to invest more money into free agency next offseason.

The first few seasons of Kennys Vargas’ career have been a bit of a disappointment for the Twins. Vargas came up in 2014 as a player with a lot of potential, and was considered by many to be the inevitable replacement for Joe Mauer at first base. Despite a few bright moments with the bat, Vargas hasn’t quite lived up to his expectations. Over his 859 career plate appearances, Vargas has a slash line of .253/.314/.444, with 35 home runs and an even 100 wRC+. While these numbers aren’t terrible, they are no where near what you would hope for from a first baseman. The Twins do still have 4 years of team control of Vargas, but now might be the time for the Twins to look to move on from him. A few teams that I could see drawing interest in Vargas would be the Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals. Now where would the Twins go to get this potential upgrade for Kennys Vargas. For that, we can look at our neighbors to the East, in the Milwaukee Brewers’ right-handed hitting first basemen Jesus Aguilar. After struggling in very limited playing time with Cleveland, Aguilar was claimed off waivers by Milwaukee prior to the 2017 season. In his first season with the Brewers, Aguilar had some success, posting a .265/.331/.505 slash line and a wRC+ of 112. He did this in limited playing time, seeing just 311 plate appearances, despite appearing in 133 games. This was mostly due to the fact that he spent the season in a platoon with Eric Thames. There are many similarities between Kennys Vargas and Jesus Aguilar. Both players are big, power-hitting first basemen, who have never been given an opportunity to be an everyday player at the Major League level, but have had success at it in the minors. Both players are nearly identical in age (Aguilar is one month older than Vargas), though, Aguilar is controllable for and additional season. They are also very similar defensively, with Vargas having a DRS (defensive runs saved above average) of 1 over 756 career innings at 1st, while Aguilar has a DRS of 0 over 629 career innings at first. Despite all these similarities, there is one key difference between the two, and that is their ability to hit left-handed pitching. Last year, Vargas struggled mightily against lefties, positing an abysmal 56 wRC+ against them, while Aguilar posted a very strong 127 wRC+ against lefties. Aguilar's ability to hit lefties would bring a big upgrade to the Twins, who collectively hit for a 96 wRC+ versus lefties in 2017, compared to a 104 wRC+ against right handed pitching. This could also play out big in the long term if they are unable to resign Brian Dozier after 2018, as he provides much of the Twins production against left-handed pitching. Jesus Aguilar can hold his own against right-handed pitching as well. Last season, Aguilar gathered a .806 OPS, and a wRC+ of 104 against his weaker side. This bodes well for his chances to become an everyday threat in the Twins lineup. The Statcast metrics appear to favor Aguilar over Vargas as well. In 2017, Aguilar’s xwOBA was a respectable .330, while Varges’ was a mere .303. A lot of this can be attributed to Aguilar’s 89.2 MPH average exit velocity, compared to Varges’ 86.3 MPH average exit velocity. Here is are a couple charts that compare the quality of contact that Jesus Aguilar and Kennys Varges made in 2017. For a little reference on how to read these charts, they show the six different qualities of contact defined by Statcast. Each dot measures the launch angle and exit velocity of a batted ball event by the hitter. The top three categories (Barrels, Solid Contact and Flares & Burners) usually result in hits, while the bottom three categories (Topped, Hit Under and Weak Contact) usually result in outs. From these charts we can see that Jesus Aguilar does a better job of hitting for quality contact than does Kennys Vargas. On 44% of his batted balls, Aguilar made contact in one of the top three batted ball categories, while Vargas only managed to do this on just 36% of his batted balls. We can also see that Vargas has real trouble with hitting too many grounders, as he hit toppers on roughly 39% of his batted balls. So, why might the Brewers be willing to trade Jesus Aguilar? Well, last season, to make room for Aguilar at first, the Brewers would often move Thames to one of the corner outfield positions. However, with the Brewers’ recent additions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, it is hard to imagine them employing that same strategy again this year, with what will be a very crowed outfield. With the Brewers not having the luxury of the DH, they might look to move Aguilar as there is simply no room for him. This means it would be the perfect opportunity for the Twins to swoop in and potentially buy low. Pulling off this move to acquire Jesus Aguilar, and subsequently trading Kennys Vargas, could be a big move that will not only add to the Twins bench this season, but could provide a better option long term at first, if Joe Mauer walks after 2018. So, what do you think? Is making a move for Jesus Aguilar something that the Twins should pursue, or would they be better off staying put with the way things are, and seeing if Kennys Vargas can develop into the player many hoped he would become?

It is no question that the Twins top priority this offseason remains on signing free agent Yu Darvish. However, as the season nears, they may need to shift their focus towards an alternative option to fill an open spot in their rotation, especially now that Ervin Santana is expected to miss the first month of the season after having surgery on the middle finger on his right hand. There is a lot of speculation that the Twins will sign one of the other remaining free agent starters if they fail to land Darvish. While many of the available starters are quality pitchers, there isn’t a lot of long term upside to any of them, as they are all on the wrong side of 30. Another option that the Twins have to bolster their rotation would be through a trade. One pitcher many people have speculated about this offseason is Chris Archer. While Archer would be a great addition for the Twins, he will cost them a fortune in terms of prospects. However, there are other pitchers out there on the trade market that the Twins could go after, and one very intriguing pitcher that nobody has been talking about this winter is Atlanta Braves starter Julio Teheran. Teheran has spent parts of seven seasons pitching for the Braves, but despite that, he just turned 27 in January. On his contract, Teheran still has 2 years and $19M guaranteed, with a third-year team option for $12M. This means that if the Twins trade for Teheran, they will control him during his prime for a lot less money than it would take to sign either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Even though Teheran hasn’t been seriously linked to any trade discussions this offseason, there was a lot of talk before the trade deadline last July about the Braves interest in trading him. Moving Teheran would make a lot of sense for Atlanta, as they are a team that is still a year or two away from contention and could add to their already deep farm system. For the Twins, Julio Teheran would be an ideal candidate to slide into their rotation. Teheran has shown that he is durable, as he has pitched at least 185 innings in every season since he became a full-time starter in 2013. He has done this all to the tune of a career 3.59 ERA. One down side to Teheran is he is coming off a bad 2017, where he posted a career worst 4.49 ERA, and a disheartening 4.96 xFIP. The biggest reason for this drop in performance was his increased walk rate, which jumped up to 3.44 BB/9. From the chart below, you can see that Teheran’s control seems to be the driving factor in his production. As you can see, if Teheran can control his walk rate he has the ability to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. One promising note is, despite the high walk rate, Teheran’s strike percentage didn’t seem to drop off all that much in 2017, as it did in 2015. This is a good sign that perhaps Teheran hasn’t suddenly lost his command, and that he could easily bounce back to form in 2018. When diving into Teheran’s Statcast numbers, there is some more reason to be optimistic that he will bounce back in 2018. Teheran did a good job last season at not allowing hard contact, by posting an average exit velocity against of 86.3 MPH. This ranked just ahead of pitchers like Chris Sale, Zack Greinke and Carlos Martinez who were all at 86.4 MPH. In 2017, Teheran fell victim to pitching in front of the terrible Atlanta Braves defense. Last season, the Braves ranked 27th in Major League Baseball with -43 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). A move to the Twins, who had +17 DRS last year, would be a big upgrade for Teheran. A big portion of that upgrade would be in the outfield, where the Braves finished 2017 with -7 Outs Above Average (OAA), while the Twins finished with +31 OAA. This plays right into Teheran’s hands, as he had the 14th highest flyball rate among qualified starters last season. This poor defense by the Braves goes a long way in explaining why Julio Teheran allowed a 0.334 wOBA last season (0.321 was MLB average), despite his xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average) of 0.318. With Teheran coming off of a down season, the Twins will have an opportunity to buy low on a pitcher that has the upside to become the Twins #2 starter, just as he is entering his prime. If he is not able to return to his pre-2017 form, and continues his struggles with his command, Teheran will most likely slot somewhere in the middle or back of the Twins’ rotation. In either scenario, Teheran would bring the Twins an element of much needed depth to the starting rotation, and could potentially prevent the front office from being forced into calling up one of the prospects before they feel that they are ready.

Over the past couple of seasons, Ervin Santana has been one of the loan bright spots in an organization that is starved for starting pitching. In 2016, Santana put up the Twins’ lowest ERA from a qualified starting pitcher, at 3.38, since Johan Santana’s 3.33 in 2007. He followed that up in 2017 by improving his ERA to 3.28, the 5th lowest in the American League. This was a big turnaround from a pitcher who had an ERA of 4.16 over his 11 career seasons prior to 2016. So, what is the reason for Ervin Santana’s success over the last couple of seasons? Well, it is quite simply his slider, or more specifically the usage of his slider. Throughout his career, Ervin Santana’s slider has always been considered his best pitch. However, since his slider isn’t a big wipe-out pitch, like those of a Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, it has never been considered to be one of the best in the game. According to Fangraphs’ Pitch Value metrics, in 2017, Ervin Santana’s slider measured out at 1.83 runs above average per 100 sliders thrown. This was the 6th best number by a qualified starting pitcher last season. Max Scherzer lead the way at 3.33 runs above average, more than a full run over the nearest pitcher. The Pitch Value metrics weren’t the only measuring system that liked Ervin Santana’s slider. Again, among qualified starting pitchers in 2017, Santana allowed the 5th lowest wOBA on his slider at a mere 0.211 (MLB average wOBA in 2017 was 0.321). Again, Scherzer was way ahead of the pack, posting a 0.138 wOBA allowed on his slider. If you prefer to look at more traditional statistics, Santana allowed a 0.162 batting average against on his slider last season, which ranked 6th in Major League Baseball, and of the 31 home runs Ervin Santana allowed last season, just 8 of them were off of his slider. As you can see, the numbers clearly back up the fact that Ervin Santana had one of the best sliders in Major League Baseball in 2017, and if you go back beyond that you will see that this has been the case for nearly all of his career. So, what has made the last couple of seasons different than the majority of the first 11 seasons of his career? Quite simply, it has been the vamped-up usage rate of his slider. In 2015, Santana’s first season with the Twins, he threw his slider on 33.7% of pitches, on his way to a 4.00 ERA. However, in 2016 and 2017, he increased his slider usage rate up to 36.8% and 36.5% respectively. This increase factored in over the course of a full season, adds approximately 100 extra sliders that Santana is throwing instead of either his fastball or change-up, which are much worse pitches for Santana comparably. While back-to-back seasons of increased slider outputs coinciding with improved pitching by Santana is noticeable, it is hard to say that this is an established trend. So, I decided to look back at Santana’s numbers throughout the course of his career to see if this pattern has always been the case, or if maybe it was just a coincidence. In the chart listed below, each of Ervin Santana’s 13 career MLB seasons are ranked by slider usage rate and matched up with his ERA in that season to see which seasons had the lowest ERA comparatively. Along with that, is a linear model that illustrates the correlation between Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate and his ERA. When looking at the linear model, we can see that there is indeed a negative correlation between Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate and his ERA. This means that as his slider usage rate goes up, his ERA goes down. As is almost always the case with data, it would be nice to have more data points to reference in order to gain an even clearer picture of the effect Santana’s slider has on his ERA, but 13 seasons of this being the case is still pretty strong evidence. In the chart, we can break down some of the numbers even further. In each of the five seasons where Santana used his slider the most, he had one of his six lowest ERAs of his career, including each of the top four. We can also see that the three seasons where Santana had the lowest slider usage rate were also the first three seasons of his career. This is a result of Santana ditching his curveball that he threw early in his career to start focusing more on his slider. Now, to say that Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate is the end all be all towards his success would be foolish. There are many factors at play when it comes to the success that he will have in a given season, but for Santana, it appears that his slider usage rate is one of the more important individual factors when it comes to determining his success. So, what can the Twins take away from this? Obviously, Santana can’t begin to just throw his slider on every pitch, as opposing hitters will adjust, and make his slider less effective. There is also a point where if Santana throws too many sliders, it will wear on his arm. I think the best approach would be to try and increase his slider usage by a couple percentage points to start the season and see what kind of effect this has on Santana’s performance.

There is no question that Brian Dozier has been the best player on the Minnesota Twins for the past four seasons. Over that stretch, Dozier’s 18.8 fWAR ranks 18th in Major League Baseball, and is 2nd among second basemen. His early success lead the Twins front office to give him a 4-year, $20MM deal to buy out his arbitration eligible years. This has proved to be an extremely team friendly deal, but now that the Twins are a team that is finally back in playoff contention, they just might be in danger of losing their best player. Dozier has expressed interest in returning to the Twins after 2018, but it doesn’t appear that the Twins have approached him yet this offseason about a potential extension. So, the question to ask is, should they? Probably the most important factor in this decision will be cost. How much money will they need to spend, and how many years will they need to offer in order to entice Dozier away from entering free agency next offseason. Dozier has drastically increased his market value after back-to-back career years. This means that the Twins won’t be able to sign him for pennies on the dollar this time around. When trying to estimate the contract that Dozier’s agent will be asking for, the best place to start is by looking at contracts that other elite level second basemen have gotten in recent years. The three players that make the most sense to look at are Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist. Here are the details of their contracts. For a little comparison, Brian Dozier will be entering his age 31 season this year, and had a 5.0 fWAR last season, and a 14.2 fWAR over the previous three. Given these factors, and adding in a couple years of baseball inflation, we can assume that Dozier will get a contract somewhere in between the Cano and Zobrist contracts. In terms of years, I would expect that the it will be a lot closer to the four years Zobrist got, than the ten years Cano received. It would most likely be a deal that would extend either four or five seasons past Dozier’s current contract. Even though it has been four years since Robinson Cano signed his deal, I do not see Dozier receiving an offer that approaches Cano’s in terms of Average Annual Value, as Cano was an MVP level player for five seasons before signing his contract with the Mariners. Given this, I am predicting that Dozier will sign for somewhere in the $19M-$21M per year range. Now that we have a ballpark idea of what it might take to sign Brian Dozier to an extension, we now must figure out if it would make sense for the Twins to sign him to that extension. As with most big decisions, it is often works well to look at the pros and cons of the decision, so that is what we will do. Pros The first pro to extending Dozier, is it will secure the Twins organizational depth in the middle infield. The reason that this is important is two-fold. While players like Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier and even Jorge Polanco all have a lot of potential, they still have big question marks attached to them. For a team like the Twins, who is ready to compete now, having a player like Dozier, who has a much higher floor over the next few seasons will be very important. The other reason why Dozier securing depth in the middle infield is important is, it gives the front office more flexibility with their personal decisions. With second base taken care of for the foreseeable future, they can be more aggressive with their prospects in the trade market for a big time starting pitcher, like Chris Archer. Also, with the future of third base in doubt after 2018, the Twins could also use their depth in the middle infield to fill this hole, potentially with Dozier sliding over to third himself. Another benefit of keeping Dozier around is his leadership presence in the clubhouse. With an inexperienced team like the Twins, having veteran leader for the young players is paramount. The final benefit of extending Dozier now is the Twins will have exclusive negotiating rights with him. If the Twins want to bring Dozier back, their best bet might be by not exposing him to the other 29 teams in free agency. Cons Without question, the biggest con in extending Dozier would be the financial commitment the Twins would have to make to him. If the Twins were to sign him, the total value of the contract would be roughly in the $100MM range. If the Twins were to make that investment it would take away from their ability to go out and sign a top tier starting pitcher that is of desperate need. Another potential problem with locking up that much money in one player is, if they suffer an injury, or their game were to suddenly go away, the Twins would be stuck with a lot of dead money on their books. With Dozier now on the wrong side of 30, both of those are possibilities, despite his track record of health and consistent performance. A final motive to consider is baring an awful 2018 for Dozier, the Twins will make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. So even if he does sign with a different organization, the Twins will receive a draft pick between Rounds 1 and 2 in the 2019 Draft as compensation. With all things considered, it is a bit surprising that the Twins haven’t at least approached Dozier or his agent about an extension this winter. Even if they are leaning towards not bringing him back, it would still be worth getting the conversation started to see what Dozier wants. I am interested to see what everyone has to say on this. Do you think that the Twins should offer Brian Dozier a contract extension, or should they let him play just play out this season and see where the chips fall in free agency?

The Twins have made a concerted effort this offseason to improve their pitching staff with additions of Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed and Michael Pineda. However, it doesn’t appear that any of those moves will be a limiting factor as the Twins look to make further additions. Earlier this week, Derek Falvey said that “he doesn’t believe the Twins have any major budget constraints to sign a much-needed starter.” This is good news for Twins fans that are hoping that the Twins will sign Yu Darvish, but it also means that they are considering other options to bolster their pitching staff as well. One of the potential options that the Twins are showing interest in is 31-year-old Wade Miley. Wade Miley isn’t the sexiest name out there on the starting pitcher market, but he could be a value grab for the Twins as they look to add depth to their rotation. One thing the Twins will be able to count on in Miley is his durability, as he has averaged 186 innings per season over the last six years. Miley has a respectable 4.38 ERA, and 3.95 xFIP, over his career, though he has been suspect of late with a 5.48 ERA over the past two seasons. This will make Miley a cheap signing, that the Twins could take a flyer on. When digging into Miley’s peripheral numbers, it appears that he is poised for a bounce back season in 2018. Despite the 5.48 ERA in 2016 and 2017 combined, Miley had an xFIP that was more than a full run lower at 4.34. This is due in large part to Miley’s HR/FB jumping to 16.2% and 19.4% in the last two years respectively. This is up from the 10.6% HR/FB that Miley had averaged in his career before 2016. A lot of this can be explained by the fact that Miley spent part of 2016, and all of 2017 as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, who play in notoriously hitter friendly Camden Yards. If you put Miley in a more pitcher friendly park in 2018, his HR/FB ratio will almost surely go down, and along with it his ERA. One area of concern for Miley entering 2018 is his walk rate. In 2017, Miley saw his BB/9 balloon from his 2.79 career average, all the way up to 5.32. This was by far the highest of any full time starting pitcher in 2017, as the next highest walk rate from a pitcher that threw at least 150 innings was Chad Kuhl’s 4.12 BB/9. This screams that this number is, in large part, a product of the random variation that comes from a sample size of just one season. It is very reasonable to assume that Miley’s walk rate might regress back closer to his career norms in 2018. It could also be helpful for Miley to get away from the Orioles nightmare pitching situation (Orioles starters had a 5.70 ERA in 2017, the worst of any team since the 2012 Rockies). If the Twins do find themselves in a situation where they are unable to sign one of the more prolific starters that are still available in free agency, Wade Miley might just be an okay option for the Twins to either fall back on, or complement a different move with. Given the current state of the free agent market, and the fact that the Orioles decided to pay the $500K to buyout their $12MM team option for Miley in 2018, the Twins should be able to sign Miley to a one-year deal, in the $4M - $7M per year range.

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look. In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers. Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish. Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish. So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins. Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish. Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012. This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta. With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.