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Quick HItter: Postseason Roster Prediction
Matthew Lenz posted a blog entry in Musings from Twins Territory
On Monday, I wrote a quick hitter on my 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards. Now, I want to do a quick rundown of my postseason roster. Catcher: Mitch Garver, Jason Castro It'll be interesting to see how much they split time in the postseason. Both have been good this year but Garver has been better. Infielders: CJ Cron, Luis Arraez, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano With Rocco saying that Arraez is progressing better than expected, I think he'll make the roster. He may not play on Friday but I think we'll see him sometime during this series. Outfielders: Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, Max Kepler It won't happen, but I'd love to see a guy like Ian Miller on the roster for his speed. On this roster, the Twins don't have anyone in their lineup to pinch run if they need speed on the bases. Utility/DH: Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Ehire Adrianza or Willians Astudillo Adrianza, Gonzalez, and Astudillo are guys who can mostly play anywhere. The health of Adrianza makes it seem like he won't be on the roster, so I think Willians gets the 25th spot. Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Zack Littell, Sergio Romo, Cody Stashak, Brusader Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Kyle Gibson The first 11 are locks for me. Kyle Gibson, I'm not so confident in. It feels weird to not have Gibson on the postseason roster, as the most tenured Twin, but if he's not healthy and can't pitch well then he shouldn't be on the roster. It's that simple. I also wouldn't be totally against leaving Adrianza/Astudillo off the roster and adding another pitcher like Martin Perez, but with his struggles I don't think he brings as much value as an extra utility player. What does your postseason roster look like?- 2 comments
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You can listen directly here or download directly from iTunes here. Nelson Cruz Signing and Possible Extensions: 1:58 Martin Perez Signing: 10:07 Craig Kimbrel? Other Free Agents & Payroll: 23:07 25-Man Roster Predictions: 45:50 Question from the Audience (Perez, Media and the fans, Free Agents) : 1:11:10 Let us know what you think and thanks for listening!
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Your Twins team - the batters : is this good enough?
mikelink45 posted a blog entry in mikelink45's Blog
I was curious where we stand as a team - right now. Since the fast and furious signings seem to be in a lull (facetious statement). Let's put the team on the field as they are now composed and see how they stack up using their 2018 WAR and the Total Zone Fielding Runs above average and the 2019 projection - all from Baseball Reference WAR RTOT Projection Polanco SS 1.5 , -2 270/329/415 Rosario LF 3.6 -10 278/319/464 Cron 1B 2 4 253/316/455 Sano 3B -0.5 -2 239/322/452 Austin DH 0.5 236/301/446 Cave CF 1.5 -2 259/317/455 Kepler RF 2.8 16 235/317/419 Schoop 2B 1.4 1 259/302/448 Castro C 2.5 3 222/309/370 using 2017 numbers Adrianza U 0.4 -3 249/307/385 Buxton CF -0.3 3 237/297.393 Garver C 0.9 -16 254/325/407 Torreyes U 0.3 - 2 270/312/384 What do you think? 16.6 WAR total. RTOT - 16. Can we hit, can we field? I will look at the pitchers a little later. I just need to digest what these totals tell us. Our does this all hinge on Sano and Buxton like I talked about in - https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11292-%7B%3F%7D/ Do we need more or do we look forward to another year with the moves that are made? https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11289-%7B%3F%7D/ -
Here we are December 6, 2018. We are almost a week after my birthday and what a week. I waited 73 years for all this to happen. We fired Molitor - he mishandled the bullpen which had all of three good relievers and we needed 4 per game. We let go the pitching coach even though Gibson and others out performed the past. We kept the hitting coaches even though our superstar, can't miss projects continued to flail at the plate. We fired Pickler the guy the front office said would provide new age stat information to the manager. We kept the bench coach who obviously shoulders no blame for the season that got Molitor fired. Then we lost Johnny Field to the cubs and Oliver Drake to the Rays even though they were good enough to prevent minor leaguers from auditioning in September. Great move. We showed other teams how good the players we did not want were. Then to show that we cared about pitching we signed Erasmo Moreno and Preston Guilmet to be our new right hander pitchers. Some real action to get November warming up. Randy Cesar was signed to give 3B depth, Zack Weiss signed to give even more right handed depth, and LaMonte Wade was put on the 40 man even though he was not good enough to come up in September. And Nick Gordon was added to the same 40 man even though he too was not good enough for September - glad we kept Field and Oliver on that roster. We traded Nick Anderson to the Rays and got another 3B Brian Schales, to push Sano. He must be worried that is two 3B players in one month. Having a strong BP we released Alan Busenitz. Then we added Luis Arreaz to the 40 man because we did not know Schoop would be there for the next season and we signed C J Cron and released Robbie Grossman making a completing unremarkable change in our batting talent. Then December came and we though that Ronald Torreyes should challenge Ehire - thereby pushing our talent level on more notch towards the championships we dream of. Is anyone else excited?
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From the album: Picture Posts
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Minnesota Twins pitcher Phil Hughes had a rib removed last year to help correct an issue that was causing some major problems. The surgery ended the pitcher's season in July. It was unfortunate that the surgery didn't happen sooner. Statistically speaking. Hughes had some ideas for the rib, which he kept following the surgery. The Twins might have some ideas about Hughes if he can turn things around in 2017. It would include him taking the rib with him, although I don't believe they could use it as a bargaining chip in any trade offers. New decision makers Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to address the pitching issue that has plagued the organization since the beginning of the decade. The two categories would be starting pitching depth and lack of a pitcher that can actually strike a batter out. How do Hughes and Santana play into this? It's easy, really. They are two veteran pitchers with playoff pitching experience. They've pitched on teams that are the thick of things come October. These things will certainly make them names that will be floated around come trade deadline time. Santana is most likely to hear his name thrown around. He had solid numbers in 2016 and his durability is great for a team that needs a solid number three or, dare I say, number two starter. The number that is key for Santana to keep down is the home runs. He gave up an average of 28 home runs a year between 2009 and 2013. The last three years he's dropped that number to 16. Keep the homers down, the innings pitched and quality starts up and he'll have plenty of suitors. In the case of Hughes, he has to prove that the last two years were more fluke than fact. One stat that stands out is the percentage of 0-2 counts batters faced against Hughes last year. His percentage was a career low 21.6 percent. His career year, 2014, 37.5 percent of batters faced 0-2 counts. This indicates that something changed in the way Hughes was disguising pitchers early on in the at-bat. It also shows that he didn't adjust to the way batters approached him. Hughes does not walk a lot of batters and so he is always going to be around the strike zone. He was a master of keeping batters off balance in '14. Last year he was the batters puppet. Even if Hughes turns things around, he's going to be hard to unload. A 31-year old that is owed $39.6 million of the next three years is not appealing. Santana's contract, he's $27 million over the next two years with a $14 million team option in 2019, is much easier to live with. All of this is great and painfully obvious to Twins fans. Take veterans and trade them to stock up in minors. Throw bodies at the problem. However, we can't just look at these two in the broad spectrum of adding talent by trading talent. How Falvey and Levine handle Hughes and Santana will show us a lot in how they handle other talented veterans. It will also tell us how far away they feel the Twins are from being competitive. You could convince some that the Twins are just a couple pitchers away from being competitive. Okay, a few. Okay, like two people. But, it really doesn't matter what those two people believe. It's what the new guys believe. Is this going to be a slow process and how do these two veterans play into this process? A question that Falvey and Levine will take time to answer.
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Minnesota Twins pitcher Phil Hughes had a rib removed last year to help correct an issue that was causing some major problems. The surgery ended the pitcher's season in July. It was unfortunate that the surgery didn't happen sooner. Statistically speaking. Hughes had some ideas for the rib, which he kept following the surgery. The Twins might have some ideas about Hughes if he can turn things around in 2017. It would include him taking the rib with him, although I don't believe they could use it as a bargaining chip in any trade offers. New decision makers Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to address the pitching issue that has plagued the organization since the beginning of the decade. The two categories would be starting pitching depth and lack of a pitcher that can actually strike a batter out. How do Hughes and Santana play into this? It's easy, really. They are two veteran pitchers with playoff pitching experience. They've pitched on teams that are the thick of things come October. These things will certainly make them names that will be floated around come trade deadline time. Santana is most likely to hear his name thrown around. He had solid numbers in 2016 and his durability is great for a team that needs a solid number three or, dare I say, number two starter. The number that is key for Santana to keep down is the home runs. He gave up an average of 28 home runs a year between 2009 and 2013. The last three years he's dropped that number to 16. Keep the homers down, the innings pitched and quality starts up and he'll have plenty of suitors. In the case of Hughes, he has to prove that the last two years were more fluke than fact. One stat that stands out is the percentage of 0-2 counts batters faced against Hughes last year. His percentage was a career low 21.6 percent. His career year, 2014, 37.5 percent of batters faced 0-2 counts. This indicates that something changed in the way Hughes was disguising pitchers early on in the at-bat. It also shows that he didn't adjust to the way batters approached him. Hughes does not walk a lot of batters and so he is always going to be around the strike zone. He was a master of keeping batters off balance in '14. Last year he was the batters puppet. Even if Hughes turns things around, he's going to be hard to unload. A 31-year old that is owed $39.6 million of the next three years is not appealing. Santana's contract, he's $27 million over the next two years with a $14 million team option in 2019, is much easier to live with. All of this is great and painfully obvious to Twins fans. Take veterans and trade them to stock up in minors. Throw bodies at the problem. However, we can't just look at these two in the broad spectrum of adding talent by trading talent. How Falvey and Levine handle Hughes and Santana will show us a lot in how they handle other talented veterans. It will also tell us how far away they feel the Twins are from being competitive. You could convince some that the Twins are just a couple pitchers away from being competitive. Okay, a few. Okay, like two people. But, it really doesn't matter what those two people believe. It's what the new guys believe. Is this going to be a slow process and how do these two veterans play into this process? A question that Falvey and Levine will take time to answer.
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Many of you may be looking at the Twins roster for opening day and wondering: "where the hell are the prospects?" Sure, we've been told again and again that we're about to get a huge influx of talent. And sure, we've been told that the children are our future. But the young players coming north: Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia, Kyle Gibson...we've seen them all before...and the people we haven't seen: Blaine Boyer? Kurt Suzuki? Tim Stauffer? Are not the world changing prospects we've been asked to bank on. So, you may be a little frustrated. I'm a little frustrated. Until I realized that this is all part of Terry Ryan's Secret Plan. We at Peanuts from Heaven have found a secret ad written, directed and produced by Terry Ryan. What follows is a transcript of that ad. TWINS SECRET COMMERCIAL http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sHUQsYurfT8/VRsVnQZM0oI/AAAAAAAADHA/325H98WUK7c/s1600/SaneTerry.jpg [Ext. Day, Terry Ryan, wearing a completely respectable suit is walking toward the camera from Right Field] SANE TERRY. Hi. I'm Sane Terry, from Sane Terry's House of Fiscally Viable Veterans here with totally reasonable deals on all your veteran baseball player needs. [Cut to. Int. Twins Clubhouse, Sane Terry walks past empty lockers] SANE TERRY. For years, the Minnesota Twins have been giving the aging and seemingly ineffective baseball players of America a chance to hit rock bottom. Once they do that, they are ripe for the picking...your picking. [Cut to. Close Up, Terry Ryan turned to face new camera] SANE TERRY. Are you a team with six valid starting pitchers? Why not trade for one of our many rotation candidates as insurance in case of injury, theft, or spontaneous combustion? [Cut to. Opposite angle Terry Ryan turned to face new camera] SANE TERRY. Are you a team who wishes their young players could learn from a cautionary example? Why not trade for one of our jaded-former-prospects whose shattered dreams has left them a shell of their former selves? [Cut to. Original Angle Terry Ryan turned to face new camera] SANE TERRY. You can get all your valuable veterans for low, low prices. Just ask these satisfied customers. [Cut to Neal Huntington smiling in front of PNC Park in Pittsburgh] HUNTINGTON. Our team used to be a joke, but once we just started picking Terry's discarded pitchers off the scrap heap, we had all the support we could ever need! [Cut to Buck Showalter at the dugout railing of Camden Yards] SHOWALTER. If someone has "former-Twin" on their resume, you can bet that they'll be a below-average starter, but an irrationally great resource for your post season run! Thanks to Sane Terry, I might not be fired right before my team wins the World Series! [Cut to Sane Terry reclining in his office at Target Field, the camera takes in a view of the field] SANE TERRY. We know you can get brand new ballplayers from many sources. But Crazy Billy's Coliseum of Deals always seems to have ulterior motives, and the next Miami Marlins Fire Sale isn't scheduled until November 2016, so why not come on down to Sane Terry's House of Fiscally Viable Veterans and see what we have on offer? [Cut to, reverse Angle, the camera takes in a view of the hallway] SANE TERRY. You don't have to give up the farm, just a young kid with upside, or downside, or cash...we like cash. And we like to give these veteran ball players a new lease on life. That's why we'll always have them on the roster, and always have them available, because that's what made us successful all these years. ANONYMOUS INTERN [While walking by Terry's door]. Huh? What do you mean? We haven't been successful. And the older players rarely if ever help us. And when we trade them we almost never get anything of value. SANE TERRY. Well, you know what they say, "the definition of sanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result." ANONYMOUS INTERN. Actually I think that's the definition of insanity. SANE TERRY. Ha. Ha. If that were true, I would be Crazy Terry...and I am clearly Sane Terry. It says so on this ad. ANONYMOUS INTERN. What ad? And who are you talking to? SANE TERRY. Sane Terry's House of Fiscally Viable Veterans. Call now and get Mike Pelfry right before he finalizes his deal with the devil for one more good season. [Fin.]
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