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We talk about all the stats and analytics like we are working with computers and not human beings. But that is not the case and thus we can look at players who have been mishandled by the team and wonder what would have happened if the club had been a little more intelligent in the personal needs department. Oswaldo Arcia is one person who really jumps out at me his minor league slash was 296/368/530 then he came to the Twins and his world and his potential fell flat. What happened. I know he failed with others, but once the slide starts it seldom rights itself. Miguel Sano was 269/385/530 as a rookie 3B and the major league brains said - put him in RF. He hit 236/319/462. Thankfully he has recovered from this wise decision. Now I look at Fernando Romero who was 3 - 3 with a 4.69 ERA as a major league starter. 45/19 k/BB as a starter. So lets make him a reliever. 0 - 1 7.07 ERA, 18/11 K/BB. WHIP went from 1.41 to 2.14. Sometimes changing a players role is good - other times it stinks. I remember the great notes about Romero coming up - nothing like that is written now. Did we out smart ourselves?
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What do we make of the Twins bullpen in this era where bullpens have supplanted starters? Closers, Openers, Lefty and righty specialists, relievers for innings 5,6,7,8,9. Lots of warm ups, lots of wasted time. In my world we would not have openers and we would limit the teams to 4 pitchers per nine innings which would really make the manager think about who to bring in and when - if they are on their third pitcher in the sixth inning. We might have to teach starters to learn what starters in the past learned – how to conserve themselves, who to put max effort into, and to think about quick outs instead of 6 – 9 pitch outs. But my dream does not count so what should the Twins do about their 2019 – 2020 Bullpens? We have the following players in our current Bullpen: Belisle – overused – even if it is once a week or once a month Hildenberger – overused and should not be in the ninth Reed – Can he be what he once was? May – just to make everyone angry, I will tell you I think he is overrated. Drake – Not on a good team, but are we a good team? Magill – Nice surprise can he keep it up? Busenitz – running out of chances Rogers – finishing the best of all Mejia – Not sure what to think of him in BP Goya- Our opener specialist Duffey – Hope your next team can get you effective again Curtiss – okay, but Vasquez – Nice to see the advance, but do they really expect him in MLB next year? Gimenez – I know he is a ringer Which ones do you want to keep? They are all on the 40 man roster. Who would you DFA – I would choose Gimenez, Belisle, Busenitz, Duffey as my for sure DFA group, but would not mind if we could move up from Curtiss, Magill, and Drake. Then in the minor leagues we have: A different Reed Anderson Moran Stashak Molina Harper All were included in Seth Stoths minor league reliever of the year. Only Vasquez, Moya, Curtiss, and Busenitz were called up from the entire list. Why not all of them in September? I know service time, etc. Anyone you want to predict will be on the roster in the next two seasons? Go ahead and move starters in if you want, I have not seen enough of the young pitchers to want Gonsalves, Stewart, Little, DeJong in my pen. Here is the Relief pitcher Free Agent Class for your shopping pleasure – but remember that very few relief pitchers can sustain their effectiveness and seldom to they come in and shine for their new club: Adam Ottavino (33 years old, 2.2 WAR) Jeurys Familia (29, 1.8) David Robertson (34, 1.3) Craig Kimbrel (31, 1.2) Sergio Romo (36, 1.0) Jesse Chavez (35, 1.0) Oliver Perez (37, 0.8) Jake Diekman (32, 0.7) Tony Sipp (35, 0.7) Brad Brach (33, 0.7) Zach Duke (36, 0.7) Joe Kelly (31, 0.6) Justin Wilson (31, 0.6) Mark Melancon (34, 0.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $28 million remaining on his contract. Tyler Clippard (34, 0.4) Andrew Miller (34, 0.4) Kelvin Herrera (29,0.4) Tony Barnette (35, 0.3) Aaron Loup (31, 0.3) Bud Norris (34, 0.3) Jonny Venters (34, 0.3) Adam Warren (31, 0.3) John Axford (36, 0.2) Greg Holland (33, 0.2) Shawn Kelley (35, 0.2) Jerry Blevins (35, 0.1) Santiago Casilla (38, 0.1) Fernando Salas (34, 0.0) Ryan Madson (38, 0.0) Zach McAllister (31, 0.0) Blake Wood (33, 0.0) Daniel Hudson (32, -0.1) Zach Britton (31, -0.1) Jorge De La Rosa (38, -0.1) Jeanmar Gomez (31, -0.1) AJ Ramos (32, -0.2) Jim Johnson (36, -0.2) Matt Belisle (39, -0.2) Randall Delgado (29, -0.2) Boone Logan (34, -0.3) Brad Ziegler (39, -0.3) Cody Allen (30, -0.3) Hector Santiago (31, -0.4) Peter Moylan (40, -0.4) Junichi Tazawa (33, -0.6) Blaine Boyer (37, -0.9) Josh Tomlin (34, -1.3) David Phelps (32, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018. Joaquin Benoit (41, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018. https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274 Not easy because we are not blessed with great arms like some teams and we have not shown an ability to develop them. With the average now close to 4 pitchers per game per team and going up can we get by with 8 relief pitchers – five starters and that makes 13. Can relief pitchers come in every other game? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-bullpens-took-over-modern-baseball/ Don Mattingly got steamed https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article218196470.html on September 15 when the two teams – Phillies and Marlins used a total of 15 relievers in one game! No pitcher recorded 6 outs in the game. So what happens next – that was a September open roster game, but will we start to see rosters with a second catcher, a utility man and the rest pitchers? Stay tuned. Give it a try – who will you depend upon?
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I know that RP refers to relief pitching – for me it amounts to Really Poor baseball. KC won a series and did damage to the rest of baseball just like the jerk with the bomb that makes me take off my shoes at the airport. We have always had some relief pitchers, but now we have a stat head jamboree of pitchers. No longer is half the team pitchers and half batters, now we have 2 -3 on the bench and a bullpen that has to add folding chairs. Does this help the game? No. Do any of you enjoy the visits to the mound, the time it takes to run in, the 8 pitches from an already warmed up pitcher who might throw one pitch to one batter and then we repeat this exciting or should I say dramatic spectacle again. We are now in an era when wins do not count any more, starting pitchers are actually one inning relievers – how exciting is that. The starting pitcher is saved from facing the strongest part of the lineup! Why is he starting? Openers are used for beer and other necessary boredom relieving beverages. Pitchers per game is now 4.24 per team, in our World Series Years of 1991 (3.13), 1987 (2.89) and 1965 (2.69). Wins counted then because pitchers were in the game long enough to actually dominate the game – I love the Marichal and Spahn complete game 16 inning affair won by the giants (even though Spahn was my pitching hero and the Braves (Milwaukee – not Atlanta) were my favorite team). By the way Spahn started 665 games and completed 382. How about Robin Roberts throwing 28 straight complete games for the Phillies? Or Nolan Ryan throws 235 pitches, strikes out 19, during an 13 inning effort. Right now Berrios is tied for the lead in complete games with 2. Going back to our Series years – McDowell (WS) – 15 in 1991, Roger Clemens (Bos) 18 in 1987, and Sandy Koufax (Dodgers) 27 in 1965. It should be noted that neither Spahn nor Ryan had their arms fall off after those feats. A Koufax/Marichal game was must see. Great pitchers were the draw. Who goes to the park to watch the pitching match up now? Oh boy I wonder who the Opener is today? Yuck, I had to pause to let my stomach settle and to take another shot of whiskey. Oh wait I might miss Astudillo throwing melons to the plate. I do not even know these players – Boxberger from AZ is in 85% of fantasy leagues – who is he? Who is Matthew Strahm? Do I care? Fantasy Pros lists 301 relief pitchers. Who will pay to see them pitch? Yawn. I leave after 7 – I don’t care anymore – Jim Kaat was right, but the thing is I am moving that to 6 innings and if there is an Opener I come in the second inning. Give me back baseball. In fact give me starters who throw complete games, batters that bunt when the shift is on, players who steal bases and do hit and run. Limit the team to three pitchers per game. And please some team challenge this nonsense and open up the game with action, not just strikeouts and home runs.
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I posted the following comment in the discussion of Lynn’s White Sox game: When I look at the lineup I see such a gap at 4.The guys filling in the 3 - 4 - 5 spots are doing great, but with Morrison still trying to find the Mendoza line we really need Sano to give us a big bat.Of course we need a Sano who learns to strikeout a lot less.When I look at the Yankees big boppers you can see how it really changes the game, but they also have a better approach. Sano with 506 Ks in 1220 ABs wastes so many opportunities. Judge has 294 ks in 748 ABs. If Ks were hits Sano would have a 414 average and Judge 393. But Judge has an OPS of 989 career and Sano 837.Miquel has the potential, but so far he is most effective at getting on the DL rather than the bases. This seems to be the new baseball – at least for now – Relief pitchers, Ks, and HRs. It is not the baseball I enjoy. Then I went to ESPN and found an essay by Buster Olney that I found a perfect compliment to what I am trying to convey: “Fact: A starting pitcher facing a lineup for a third time or fourth time will experience a decline in performance, generally. As a result, starters are getting pulled from games earlier than ever. Fact: Relief pitchers are throwing at a higher velocity than ever, diminishing hitters' chances to put the ball in play. Fact: As it has become more difficult to generate hits against higher velocity and defensive shifts, hitters are taking more aggressive swings, at higher launch angles, in an effort to lift the ball. This approach is generating more homers and, apparently, rocket-fueling the pace of strikeouts. Some executives who have followed the numbers and helped design the dramatic changes to the sport are OK with the big swings, big flies and big whiffs. “I’ve got no problem with it,” one club official said the other day. “We’re just trying to adapt and win ballgames.” But a lot of executives abhor the Frankenstein monster that the numbers and science have helped create, with the dueling parades of relief pitchers and increasingly overpowered hitters. “I hate it,” one high-ranking evaluator said. “It’s just not that fun to watch.” http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18486/olney-have-big-swings-big-flies-and-big-whiffs-broken-baseball I chose Judge and Sano to compare because they represent the new approach, but one has been much better at it than the other. Sano has both the K and the DL as issues – the most games he has appeared in during his Twins career is 71% of the season. He has collected 5.5 WAR in 4 seasons, Judge has 9.3 in three seasons. My problem is, that I think Sano has as much potential as Judge. How do we get him to realize it? In an era where the big K and big HR totals are everywhere the player that succeeds is the one with fewer Ks and more HRs or else establishes his ability in other stats. Sano has 76 HRs in 330 games, Judge has 64 in 215 games. Judge beats Sano in OPS, but more important as a Twin fan – Sano set his OPS bar in year one and has come no where close to it since. Baseball is worried about length of game, but it should be worried about the action that keeps fans attention from inning to inning. Waiting for a K or HR is boring - Last year “117 batters hitting 20 or more homers -- far more than in 2001, in the height of the steroid era, when 88 hitters clubbed 20 or more homers, and far more than in 2011, when 68 hitters got to the 20-homer mark.” At the same time starting pitchers are pitching less – an Ace is still only a 5 or 6 inning arm. Do we really enjoy a parade of relief pitchers? I would love to see the manager limited to three per game. I am also out of touch with many in that I love the 300+ hitter more than the 20 HR hitters. And I liked the SB and all the moves that involved both bat control and speed. I would like Sano back, but I would also like an improved approach.
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