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While the Twins have established a sad record of playoff futility for twenty years now, they have a record of remarkable accomplishment in another area: they have conditioned their most devoted fans to accept that the team will operate in a way that is likely to perpetuate that futility. That is, the Twins will continue to be cheap spenders. I already know well the eye-roll this complaint elicits among many of the Twins’ most devoted and intelligent fans: How can anyone say that now? Look at the money the Twins shelled out to bring Carlos Correa back (with more than a little help from some extraordinarily bizarre events). Look at the other big name free agents the Twins have brought in in recent years: Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson, for example. Look at how they secured Byron Buxton through the prime of his career. Carl Pohlad is not with us anymore. This isn’t 2000. Thank your lucky stars the current Pohlads aren’t the cheap hucksters like those who currently run the Pirates, Athletics, or Orioles, to name a few of the truly poor unfortunate souls. Certainly I’m glad the Twins aren’t being run like those ponzi schemes, but if we love this team, we shouldn’t let being better than the absolute worst be our standard for satisfaction. Right now the poster child for small-market teams spending like high rollers is the San Diego Padres. They are stacking their roster with talent by writing checks so large that even the late George Steinbrenner might’ve hyperventilated to write them. This is despite San Diego being ranked by Sports Media Watch as one of the smallest markets in Major League baseball, with only three markets (Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee) being ranked as smaller. San Diego ranks 30th of all sports markets. Minneapolis ranks #15, But San Diego is not actually a brand new outlier and unique case in this. According to Spotrac.com, in 2012 the 5th-highest payroll in baseball belonged to the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is ranked as the #14-sized U.S. sports market, just ahead of Minneapolis. Do you know what else the 2012 Detroit Tigers did? They made the World Series. Check any sources about MLB payroll history and you’ll find other examples of teams in markets close to the size of Minneapolis or smaller making appearances among the highest spenders. The St. Louis Cardinals are in a much smaller market than the Twins and they consistently outspend the Twins and are very often in or near the top 10. They are also consistently making the postseason, with two World Series victories and two other World Series appearances in the span of time that the Twins’ playoff losing streak covers. This brings up another favorite rebuttal for Twins commentators who defend the Twins’ spending habits as reasonable: spending guarantees nothing. This is certainly true. Until Mets owner Steve Cohen came along, the Yankees were the poster-children of big-market big-spenders, yet they haven’t reached the World Series since 2009. Spending is never a guarantee of anything, but being among the bigger spenders is a bigger advantage than most fans seem to realize. Take a look at recent history (information I compiled using payroll information from Spotrac.com): Looking at these trends (and going back at least until the mid-90s shows similar correlations), it’s not much of an oversimplification to divide MLB teams into two tiers: the Top 12 spenders and the Bottom 18 spenders. The large majority of playoff game victories and World Series game victories- the kinds of things that produce the most fan excitement- tend to go to the teams in the Top 12 club. The teams in the Bottom 18 club are generally fighting for scraps. And before you get too starry-eyed that MLB’s expanded playoffs will change this dynamic, you should know that last year’s World Series teams were 2022’s #4-spending Phillies and #8-spending Astros. Every season, the Twins and most of their fans seem to hold this idea that since the Twins play in the weak AL Central, all they have to do is win the division and then get to the playoffs where it’s all a crapshoot and anything can happen. Well, look at that table again. The World Series is the last round of the playoffs, and World Series game victories are still heavily clustered in the Top 12 club. In fact, from 2016 through 2022, the only team to win the World Series that was not among that season’s top 12 spenders? The 2017 Houston Astros. Know anything about them? Maybe the playoffs are a crapshoot but going deep in the playoffs still tends to be reserved for the high rollers. There are exceptions to this, of course. The Cleveland Baseball Team famously reached that classic 2016 World Series against the Cubs and the notoriously cheap-but-scrappy Tampa Bay Rays have been perpetual contenders since they reached the 2008 World Series. But note one thing about those two small-spending scrappy organizations: they haven’t actually won a World Series in recent history (or ever, in the Rays’ case). Same thing was true for the much-revered Moneyball A’s of the aughts. This is not to say a cheap team can’t win the World Series. The 2003 Marlins ranked around #22 in payroll that year. You might also have stopped reading this already to tell me about the 2014 & 2015 Kansas City Royals. Well the Royals were out of the Top 12 club both seasons but even they- the microscopic-market Royals- bumped up to #13 in MLB payroll the year they won their World Series in 2015. Just one spot out of the Top 12. So it can happen, but the odds are stacked heavily against any team trying to win a ring while spending with Bottom 18 club. A person with weights strapped to their ankles can also still win a race. The Twins have been in the Bottom 18 every season this century save for the first two seasons in Target Field, and even in those years they were near the bottom of the Top 12 club (around #9-#11 depending on your source). Looking at the success trends in that table, it really should be no surprise that a team consistently in the Bottom 18 club would be the team to suffer a record playoff losing streak. They perfectly fit the spending profile of a team whose ceiling is an early-round exit in the playoffs. For 2023, I think the Twins have put together a roster that could win the AL Central. I also think their absolute ceiling looks like a divisional round exit, much like last season’s AL Central champs. I also don’t think anyone should be surprised if the Twins miss the playoffs for a 3rd straight season. Their offense needs a lot of things to go right and very little to go wrong. And Emilio Frickin’ Pagan is likely to be on the team. If the Twins want to get past the likes of the Astros or Yankees or any team of a similar caliber, they need a lineup that can put up a couple big innings against elite aces. But the Twins lineup only has two truly established elite bats, and both of them have well-publicized injury risk. While nearly every other bat has potential, it’s just not the kind of established potency that a team can rely on to deliver in October. I am more hopeful about the Twins pitching, but still think they would have to be regarded as underdogs against the elite lineups they would see in the playoffs. The Twins have an outline in place to build a deep-run contender. Every dimension of the team only looks one or two pieces away from looking very formidable. And I mean playoff formidable, not AL Central formidable. Maybe just one true-ace kind of starting pitcher, like a Justin Verlander, Jacob DeGrom, or Carlos Rodon. Maybe two more established, reliable bats in the lineup like Josh Bell and Mitch Haniger (whom Nash Walker of Locked On Twins said would’ve been a “perfect match”). All those players I named were free agents this past winter. Let’s imagine the Twins had outbid the teams that signed Rodon, Haniger, and Bell and landed those three. That probably adds about $60 million to the Twins payroll. Sounds absurd, but it would still only place the Twins around #8 in 2023 MLB payrolls. And it sounds even less egregious when you consider that the Twins are dropping $19 million on just Max Kepler and Joey Gallo in 2023, two much bigger gambles even with less money at stake. Even if you have quibbles with Bell, Haniger, and/or Rodon, the point is that spending some money on three or four more big pieces could take them from looking like a 2nd-tier playoff team at best to a much more serious contender. And the Twins don’t even have to spend like the much-smaller-market San Diego Padres to get there. They don’t even necessarily need to spend like the 2012 Tigers did. Given that the Twins have now locked up Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the rest of their prime ages, that they have 6 or more potential quality starting pitchers on their roster, an improved bullpen, and a lot of young offensive talent potentially on the rise like Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Edouard Joulien, Alex Kiriloff, Brooks Lee, and Matt Wallner, the time to make a big push for a World Series is very soon, Twins fans should not be content with starting the next 4 or 5 seasons thinking “we have a decent shot to win the AL Central.” They should take Carlos Correa’s mindset about building a championship culture seriously and demand that mindset be adopted all the way up to the Pohlad family. In a superb article for The Ringer in November, 2022, which I highly encourage you to read in full, Dan Moore wrote: “Over the past 40 years or so, every single team in all four of the United States’ major sports has increased exponentially in value—inexorably through all manner of catastrophe, and at an average rate that far outpaces that of both inflation and the S&P 500… Today pro sports teams rank among the most reliably lucrative, rabidly coveted investment opportunities there are. They’ve proved practically impervious to the busts, recessions, foreclosure crises, and plagues that have at the very least stalled growth in other industries.” The Pohlad family, like all owners, are sitting on a gold mine. All major sports teams, even the crappy ones, have continuously grown exponentially in value for decades, and Moore’s excellent article goes into great detail about the many conditions that make it likely that teams will continue to grow in value for the foreseeable future. I’m not even saying the Twins need to be a top 5 spender for decades to come. But I am definitely saying that they should be making a strong push for the World Series for the next 5-6 years and at minimum that probably means pressing into the top 10 spenders to make it happen. Twins fans should be content with no less. It is certainly a risk to spend so much money on a handful of players. If one or two suffers a serious injury that is a lot of resources flushed away. It could very well fail. But you know what else is a pretty well-established risk if your goal is to make it back to the World Series for the first time in over 30 years? Being in MLB’s Bottom 18 spenders club. The Twins have been trying that for over two decades now. An entire generation of Twins fans have now reached adulthood with no memory of their team even winning a playoff game. It’s time to take some different risks.

The Best Twins General Manager and owner - really a difficult task - the manager, the owner, the GM, the players - who do you blame? • Calvin Griffith. (1961 – 1984) It is not a long list since Calvin served as both owner and general manager. We won a World Series under Calvin, he moved the team to Minnesota, he insulted and lost Rod Carew. • Howard Fox. (1985 – 1986) He was a member of the Twins organization for sixty years. When he was traveling secretary, he had a fight with Billy Martin on the team plane. After Calvin sold the team he stayed on as team president for two years under Pohlad. • Andy MacPhail (Won WS twice in 1987 and 1991) Andy was the boy wonder. He was hired as VP for player development in 1984 and GM in 1985. He hired Tom Kelly, and traded for Jeff Reardon to close out games and pitchers Joe Niekro and Dan Schatzeder as well as outfielder Dan Gladden. Then after a last place finish in signed Jack Morris and we went on to another pennant while McPhail became Sporting News Executive of the Year. He then left for Chicago Cubs, which did not work out as well. Now he is president of the free spending Phillies. • Terry Ryan (1995-2007, again from 2012 - 2016) From Janesville, WI, Ryan had an unsuccessful career as a pitcher, but became a prolific scout for the Mets where he developed his reputation for player evaluation. He was smart enough to trade Dave Hollins to Seattle for David Ortiz, but did not keep him long enough to see his true development. Stuck with tight budgets he often dumped vets, but was savvy enough to trade for Shannon Stewart when the team needed him. In 2002 the Twins were the victors over Oakland in the playoffs, and he was named executive of the year while the team was the Organization of the year. He left with a good reputation, but returned in 2012 and lost some of his luster as the changing times caught up with him. • Bill Smith (2008-2011) was Ryan’s replacement. He was a loyal member of the front office and assistant to Ryan. However his star never rose and names like Matt Capps will forever stain his reputation. He was fired, the first GM to be fired by the team and Ryan came back. • Terry Ryan became the second GM fired by the Twins, but then there are not very many and perhaps the first one would have been fired had he not owned the team. • Rob Antony (interim 2016) A filler, not much to say. • Thad Levine (2016-present) Too early to tell. So how do I judge the best. We won world series under Griffith and MacPhail. Ryan and MacPhail both won Executive of the year. Average wins per season under GM Griffith 80 wins Fox 79 MacPhail 71 Ryan – first round 85 Bill Smith 83 Terry Ryan – second round 71 At the end of this look and after reading a lot of material I conclude that I cannot really judge. MacPhail looked like the Wonderman, but his teams could not sustain. Was he the best? He could not do it with the Cubs and he went higher in the front office with the Phillies who have not done well, but have now tried to buy the championship. Ryan has the best average wins under his first stint. Of course, this also reflects on the manager – these are the men who sign the players. They determine what the manager has to work with. It is really hard to figure out a really good metric for them. Was Calvin better than MacPhail – he has more wins per season – but long time Twins fans would faint at that decision. I am not going to do a best owner – Calvin is here and was the owner until Carl Pohlad bought the team and then son Jim took over. Not a lot to look at and not a lot of difference. One WS under Calvin, 2 under the Pohlads. One contraction threat under the Pohlads, lots of racist statements from Calvin. The average wins per season does not vary much between the two families. So I have no choice in this and only hope the next one is the best.

I have read and thoroughly enjoyed Aaron Gleeman’s Minnesota Twins the Big 50 and thoroughly enjoyed the nostalgia and stories. It is an excellent book and I am sure that Aaron dislikes the one big editing error that has the big page for Jim Kaat as Jim Katt. Otherwise Aaron should be very proud of the book and the quality he maintained. There are players for every era and some choices that surprised me, but nothing that I completely disagree with. I was surprised that it was not 50 players and there were sections on world series games and teams and even our previous two managers – where is Billy Martin? This made me wonder if we did not have 50 worthy players. I tried to think of who I would add. I am sorry that Lyman Bostock was not there and as an old Twin fan I missed Vic Power. Two seasons for Vic, but gold gloves and 280 average with 26 homeruns. He was colorful, exciting to watch and a player who really connected with the fans and the other one was Mudcat Grant who also had too shore a Twins career but was so much fun to watch and cheer for and his 21 wins made him worthy of our fandom. However, since we had managers and teams and games in the Gleeman book I thought about who I would have as NUMBER 51 – and Is THE OWNERS. What can I say to summarize the owners of this franchise? Of course, there is the forever echo of fans calling Pohlad cheap, but I think the most egregious of all his actions was during that low point in major league baseball when they were considering contraction and Carl volunteered to let the Twins be eliminated. Willing to accept $250,000,000 Carl was not going to lose money, but he certainly gave up Twin City admiration. “Well, he was frustrated,” Selig told the Pioneer Press last month during an interview. “The guy tried everything. I know. I was up there. I thought we had a deal two or three times and every time it fell apart, mainly for political reasons. “Contraction had nothing to do with Minnesota. Baseball was really struggling at the time, losing a fortune as a sport. There were owners who believed that contraction might help. I wasn’t of that particular view, but the owners were searching around,” Selig said. Then a local judge stepped up – “Hennepin County Judge Harry Seymour Crump became a local folk hero when he issued a temporary restraining order that forced the Twins to honor their lease and play the 2002 season at the Dome. “The vital public interest, or trust, of the Twins substantially outweighs any private interest,” Crump wrote in his ruling.” (Brian Murphy) Then there was the original owner – Calvin Griffith. In a well written article Kevin Hennessey wrote, “Calvin reacted to the new baseball economics by futilely trying to resist changes such as salary arbitration, player agents, free agency, and the increasing importance of television revenue, which gave an advantage to teams in larger markets. As time moved on, Griffith was considered a “dinosaur” or a “vestige of yesterday” relative to the new baseball owners of the late 1970s. Then there was the Waseca Lions Club meeting where Calvin let his tongue run loose and ended up losing Rod Carew - “Griffith interrupted himself, lowered his voice and asked if there were any blacks around. After he looked around the room and assured himself that his audience was white, Griffith resumed his answer. “I’ll tell you why we came to Minnesota,” he said. “It was when I found out you only had 15,000 blacks here. Black people don’t go to ball games, but they’ll fill up a rassling ring and put up such a chant it’ll scare you to death. It’s unbelievable. We came here because you’ve got good, hardworking, white people here.” Next was the feud between Calvin and his son Clark who refused to serve an apprenticeship in the minors. And in 1983 the team considered moving the franchise to Tampa Bay. http://sabr.org/research/calvin-griffith-ups-and-downs-last-family-owned-baseball-team-0