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I have had the good fortune to be with Mark Harris, a former minor leaguer who threw batting practice for the Twins in the sixties. He once threw Home Run Derby to Aaron and Killebrew and has their autographs! He proposed a question to me that I flunked on, but it was too fun not to pass on. Name five pitchers who had a Cy Young and were convicted of a felony. https://dcbaseballhistory.com/d-c-baseball-history-assorted-videos/1960-home-run-derby-washington-players/ Good luck

Third and last in my series on the conundrums of protecting players from Rule V, getting rid of deadwood, choosing what to do about free agents and lining up trades. The Outfield and Infield had a lot of names and decisions, but nothing like the pitching staff. Here we have our Ace – Berrios – who has worn down in August as an annual ritual letting others that the Ace spot until he recovers – and hopefully he can. Looking at performance is not just a calendar event – we might also look at who he has been suffering against and it is not an all-star group of teams. So, is he an ACE? We have no one else and we still have him under control. So, do we extend him? Putting an Ace in front of him, adding more quality to the rotation would do a lot. Behind him is Pineda, but he is unsigned after this year and we just paid for two years to get one. Do we resign? Will he resign? Odorizzi was an All Star then he stunk and now he looks good but he is a free agent. Do we resign him? Gibson continues to perform as an underperforming pitcher with potential, but he is too old to have potential anymore. Do we resign him. Perez has an option – do we take it? Great start, horrible middle, is he okay now? Not after his performance with against the Tigers! Smeltzer came in and looked good, then he looked bad, and now he looks like a gimmick that might not have a lot of upside – is he in the rotation next year? Thorpe has stuff, he has looked good. He looks like he should be in the rotation next year. Graterol looks and sounds good because we actually have not seen him. Is he a starter or reliever next year or is he a bust? Stewart has been up and down and frankly he looks like a pitcher who has shown us all he has and it is not great. Littell seems to have risen and looks good, but that is as a reliever. Can he start again? Should he? Poppen has some stuff, but is it enough for the MLB staff? The Pen has Rogers on the top – can he keep it up? Romo has been great – do we keep him? Dyson has done well – is he long range? Duffey and May look like they are ready to settle in to the BP. Who do we keep? And Who do we let go? The starting rotation has the most fluidity. Cody Stashak has debuted – did you like what you saw? Who is Randy Dobnak? Is Gonsalves still a prospect or someone who missed his turn? Did Romero get moved to the pen to be moved to the DFA list? Has Ryne Harper had his fifteen minutes of fame? Can Hildenberger come back or was his strange delivery a short-term success? Marcos Diplan is a name that came in a trade but has not grown into a person of prominence. And can Alcala jump to the pen and be a difference maker? That is a long list. We do not know if there will be a trade – we do not know who will DFA nor do we know the trade scenarios. Is Balazovic ready soon? Is there a FA we can afford and attract from other teams? Is there a trade? Must Keep - Berrios, Rogers, Duffy, May, Littell, Thorpe, Graterol Want to keep - Pineda, Odorizzi, Romo, Dyson Say good-bye - Gibson, Perez, Gonsalves, Harper ???? - Dobnak, Stashak, Romero, Diplan, Hildenberger,

The home opening games: We have a long history of opening games now and I got to wondering what our record is. Here is the summary of games. 1961 – Our first opening game was 1961 and who did we play – the new replacement Washington Senators. Pascual pitched and went 8 innings with three runs and reliever Moore gave up two and lost the game. Mincher and Green hit HRs. 3 – 5 1962 – Los Angeles Angels clobbered us 12 – 5. Jim Kaat started and gave up 4 in 4. Versalles, Green and Rollins hit HRs. 1963 – we lost our third straight opener – 4 – 5 to Cleveland. Pascual 5 runs in 7 innings. Green had a third opening game HR in three seasons and Vic Power added a HR. 1964 – finally we won, playing the Senators again and winning 7 – 6. Pleis won, but Kaat started and made it for 2/3 inning giving up 4 runs. Rollins, Oliva and Mincher slugged HRs. 1965 – Two in a row – this time 5 – 4 against the Yankees. Kaat went nine innings, but we won in 10 and a pitcher named Fosnow got the win. No HRs. 1966 – We beat KC 2 – 1. Mudcat Grant pitched a full game and won. No HRs 1967 – we beat the Tigers 5 – 3. Four in a row. Boswell went seven and Merritt ended the game and got the win. Allision and Versalles hit HRs. 1968 – Versus the Senators for the third opener in our short history. We won 13 – 1. Jim Merritt pitched a complete game. Killebrew, Hernandez and Tovar HRs. 1969 – We beat the Angels 6 – 0 giving us six openers in a row. Tommy Hall threw a complete game shutout. No HRs 1970 – Oakland went down 8 – 2. Kaat complete game win. No HRs. 1971 – The Brewers broke the winning streak 2 – 7. Perry went only 4.1 innings and took the loss. No HRs. 1972 – Back to winning 8 – 4 over Oakland. Blyleven complete game win. Darwin HRs for Twins. 1973 – Oakland 8 – 4 again – déjà vu. Kaat won, Hisle and Darwin HRs. 1974 – Twins over White Sox – 3 – 1. Blyleven wins and Hisle HRs. 1975 – The Angels beat us 3 – 7. Goltz gave up six. 1976 – White Sox beat us 1 – 4. Blyleven start and loss. 1977 – Oakland beat us 2 – 3. Thormodsgard (WHO?) was our opening day starter. Carew hit a HR. 1978 – We beat the Mariners 14 – 5. Zahn pitched complete game victory. 1979 – the Angels shut us out 0 – 6. Goltz loss giving up 5 in 4.1 innings. 1980 – Beat the Angels 8 – 1. Zahn complete game win and Smalley HR. 1981 – Loss to Oakland 1 – 5. Koosman 7 innings and 4 runs. 1982 – Seattle Mariners loss 7 – 11. Redfern loss, Engle and Gaetti HRs. 1983 – Loss to Detroit 3 – 11. A real WHO? – Havens starts and gives up 8 in 1.1 innings. 1984 – Detroit beat us 1 – 8. Williams ??? our starter. 6 in 6.1. 1985 – Angels beat us 0 – 5. Zahn beats his old team and Smithson continues the no-name set of opening starters and gives up 5 in 7. 1986 – We beat the Mariners 5 – 1. Blyleven won and that famous closer – Davis got the save. Gaetti and Brunansky HRs. 1987 – Victory over Oakland 5 – 4. Blyleven won and Frazier Save. Puckett HR. 1988 – Blue Jays lost 6 – 3. Blyleven one, Reardon save – three in a row, three different closers. Gladden and Gaetti HRs. 1989 – Viola lost to the Yankees 2 – 4. 1990 – Twins beat Angels 13 – 1. Tapani 8 shutout innings. Puckett and Harper HRs. 1991 – Twins shut out Angels 6 – 0. Tapani shut out. 1992 – Twins beat Texas 7 – 1. Tapani gave up one run and won. Mack HR. 1993 – White Sox won 5 – 10. Bad day for Tapani with 9 runs in 3 innings. Puckett and Winfield gave us two HOF HRs. 1994 – Loss 2 – 8 to the Angels. Tapani had another bad one – 7 runs in 3.1 innings. Munoz and Winfield HRs. 1995 – We beat the Oriols 7 – 4. Tapani gave up 3 in 5 innings and Aquilera saved. 1996 – Twins 8 – Tigers 6. Radtke six innings and one run. Stahoviak home run. 1997 – Twins 7 – Tigers 5. Radtke gave up 5 in 5 and Aquilera won. Pat Meares HR. 1998 – KC Royals won 5 – 9. Radke gave up 5 in 5 again. Ortiz HR. 1999 – We beat the Blue Jays 6 – 1. Radtke went seven for the victory. 2000 – Twins lost 7 – 0 to Tampa Bay. Radtke gave up 6 in 5 to continue a mediocre, at best, opening game record. 2001 – Twins 11 – Detroit 5. Radtke again 7.1 innings 3 runs. Mientkiewicz and Guzman HRs. 2002 – Twins 4 – Tigers 2. Radtke 6.2 – 2 runs. 2003 – Twins 2 – Blue Jay 7. Another no name opening day starter – Reed – pitched six and gave up 4. Mientkiewicz HR. 2004 – Twins beat Indians 7 – 4. Radtke 6 and 4 runs. Rincon won. Shannon Steward HR. 2005 – We lost to White Sox 1 – 5. Lohse lost 5.1 innings, 4 runs. 2006 – Twins 7 – Oakland 6. Radtke 7 Innings, 4 runs. Bautista and Morneau HR. 2007 – Twins 7 – Baltimore 4. Santana won. Six innings and four runs. Morneau and Hunter HRs. 2008 – Twins 3 – Angels 2. Livan Hernandez won. 2009 – Twins 1 – Mariners 6. Liriano lost – 7 innings, 4 runs. 2010 – Twins 5 – Boston 2. Pavano won and Kubel HR. 2011 – Twins 2 – Oakland 1. Pavano and Nathan for the Twins. 2012 – Twins 1 – Angels 5. Blackburn 6 innings, 5 runs. Willingham HR 2013 – Twins 2 – Tigers 4. Worley – remember him! – lost. 2014 – Twins 3 – Oakland 8. Correia and Deduno took the mound. 2015 – The Royals beat us 3 – 12. May started and gave up 5 in 5. Plouffe HR. 2016 – Twins 1 – White Sox 4. Gibson lost. 2017 – Twins 7 – Royals 1. Santana won. Sano HR 2018 – Twins 4 – Mariners 2. Gibson start, Duke win, Rodney save. Sano and Garver HR. 2019 – Twins 2 – Indians 0. Berrios start and won. Rogers Save. The Twins have a 33 – 16 home opener record! In Season openers there is a different set of statistics. Pedro Ramos started the very first season opener in 1961. Radtke had the most season opening starts and Blyleven was second.

Today, Sam Miller at ESPN wrote that the Strikeout rate in baseball is going up for the 14th year in a row. Last year pitchers struck out 8.2 batters per nine and this year it is 8.6 so far. The first question is why don't batters care? Second question is - how do we compare strikeout rates now with past pitching performances and careers - although Nolan Ryan is not only secure, his record means more because of when he set it. A side note is the fact that starting pitcher strikeout rates is up and relief is down. Why. I suspect it is because they now have so many relief pitchers on every squad that there are bound to be some mediocre pitchers in the bullpen - look at our bullpen and then imagine the bullpens on poor teams! Next I read an article by Jerry Crasnick on the path to 3000 hits by Albert Pujols. Pujols has never struck out more than 93 times a year and he also has over 600 homeruns. In the article Pujols states "Some guys in this league think the strikeout is overrated." "Its something in the game I really don't like. If you put the ball in play you give yourself a chance to put some pressure on the defense, and maybe they can make a mistake and make an error. If its two outs you can start a rally. If you strike out, you don't have a chance." All I can say is AMEN. Imagine Buxton dropping his K rate in half and having a chance for an infield single every time he does, or causing an error because the fielder is in a hurry because of his speed. Imagine Sano dropping his K rate in half which would still be high, but he might not leave so many on base or kill so many innings. Baseball is all about trends. Right now Ks are in and I am not pleased.

Baseball fans around the country are ready for another exciting MLB free agency free-for-all. Especially excited are Twins fans. Coming off a Wild Card season, the Twins and their new management look to become a power in the AL. Lets first look at what the Twins already have: Solid starting outfield Infield depth/flexability Strong offensive prospects And what we need to be successful: Stronger rotation Reliable bullpen One more solid bat in the middle of the lineup For the last bullet point in the "needs" list, some of our own guys have shown the ability to be that guy. Byron Buxton was very impressive in the second half of the season, but I think his defense makes him a valuable piece anyways. The player I was impressed with was Jorge Polanco. Polanco's offensive numbers through June were .242/.290/.346. Not impressive at all, but from July 1st till the end of the season he produced a much better stat line at .268/.333/.467. That is a huge jump not only in average and on-base but his slugging percentage jumped up 121 points! Hopefully he can continue his second half success at the plate and be a threat in the middle of the lineup. Another reason why Polanco can be valuable is because finding a solid shortstop is tough. An everyday shortstop who is dangerous at the plate is a scarce commodity. For a comparison, here are the number of players with at least 500 PA and wOBA greater or equal to 0.330 by position: 1B ----> 15 2B ----> 9 SS ----> 6 3B ----> 10 OF ----> 24 So having players like Polanco and Escobar that can play SS and do damage at the plate are valuable if they continue to produce. Now onto the wishlist. Here are my top 5 pitchers that I want the Twins to sign: 1. Yu Darvish RHP The obvious #1 here is Darvish. He's one of the best Pitchers in the MLB and at age 30, still has a nice chunk of career left. At around 6 years/$150M, Darvish will cost a lot to get, but he would be the best pitcher the Twins have had since Johan Santana. 2018 predictions: 75 Runs / 200 IP 2. Lance Lynn RHP At $56M over 4 years, Lance Lynn is a solid starting pitcher with lots of experience with over 970 major league innings pitched in his career. Lynn missed the 2016 season to have Tommy John surgery but didn't miss a beat last season. Lynn has a full repertoire of pitches and mixes them well. He has never been a huge strikeout guy but with his movement and control, he gets a lot of weak contact. In 2017, Lynn ranked 14th in the league with 21.1% of his batted balls hit softly. (Darvish - 20.5% Arrieta - 20.0% Scherzer 19.5%). 2018 predictions: 78 Runs / 200 IP 3. Alex Cobb RHP Alex Cobb is my number two pitcher at around 4 years/$48M, Cobb is a steal. He's got the stuff to be a 1 or 2 in the rotation. He has a fastball and slider both in the low to mid 90s, and a curveball in the low 80s. Something interesting about Cobb is his windup delivery, which can only really be described as herky jerky, but it can mess with hitter's rhythm. 2018 predictions: 69 Runs / 170 IP 4. Yusmerio Petit RHP Last season, Petit threw over 85 innings in relief with a WHIP of 0.96. Petit would be a great addition to the bullpen as a guy who can come in and eat up a couple innings per game. Holding onto a lead in the 6th - 8th innings is obviously important, which is what Petit can help the Twins pitching staff do. 2018 predictions: 22 Runs / 70 IP 5. Brandon Morrow RHP Morrow came into last season with just 43.2 innings pitched after a stint in AAA. Morrow has an exploding fastball that can reach 100mph. What I like most about Morrow is not only his incredible velocity, but his ability to hide the ball from hitters till the last second. Its hard enough for a hitter to pick up a 98mph fastball, and its that much tougher when they don't know where its coming from. Morrow is a strikeout machine and can really help the Twins in the later innings of ball games. Morrow would be higher on this list had it not been for his asking price of around $24M over 3 years. 2018 predictions: 11 Runs / 60 IP Obviously the Twins need pitching, but here is a quick rundown of free agent fielders that I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins sign: 1. Logan Morrison 1B/DH 2017 Stats: .246/.353/.516 wOBA = 0.363 2. Jay Bruce RF/DH 2017 Stats: .254/.324/.508 wOBA = 0.350 3. Yonder Alonso 1B/DH 2017 Stats: .266/.365/.501 wOBA = 0.366 4. Welington Castillo C 2017 Stats: .282/.323/..490 wOBA = 0.344 5. Lucas Duda 1B/DH 2017 Stats: .217/.322/.496 wOBA = 0.341 Basically I want another Jim Thome circa 2010, or Welington Castillo to split time with Jason Castro for more offensive production behind the plate. If the Twins make some moves this off season and buy during the trade deadline, this is a team that could make a run in the postseason.

All losses are equal in the standings, this we all know, but there’s something extra galling about losing a game in the late innings, particularly with a blown save in the ninth inning. Everything else went right, then at the last second, a supposed specialist comes in and fails to do the job they were on the roster to do. I have long been convinced this is why teams will overpay -- compared to the statistical value -- for reliable closers: They’re willing to give up some financial flexibility to decrease the likelihood of sending their fans home feeling like they were sucker punched. (Speaking of closer-induced chest pains, long-time Twins fans may remember Ron Davis, the 1984 club’s ersatz closer who blew an MLB-record 14 saves for a team that finished 81-81, just three games out of a playoff spot.) Among the many things that have not gone according to plan for the Twins so far this season, one that is particularly unpleasant is that they’ve recorded seven wins and blown seven saves. The team’s current closer, Kevin Jepsen, leads the team in wins, which can be indicative of a number of things but not a single one of them is good. So here’s my bold prediction: Kevin Jepsen won’t be the Twins’ closer at the All-Star break. Ok, it’s not really that bold. Glen Perkins may not be throwing yet, but if he’s still out two months from now, his shoulder strain is worse than the team has indicated. By the All-Star break, he ought to be back, and if he’s healthy enough to pitch, he’ll resume his typical closing duties, Jepsen then settles back into his eighth-inning role, Trevor May gets the seventh and order is restored. That’s the stage that has to be set before any discussion of Jepsen’s future. He’s not Matt Capps, the Twins’ chosen closer who falls apart midway through his term, he’s a caretaker who will relinquish the job as soon as Perkins is ready. That doesn’t mean he should be implicitly trusted with the job for the time being, it’s worth investigating whether he’s suited for it or not, but it’s important to understand what’s at stake here: 25-30 more end-of-game appearances if things start going the Twins’ way and 20-25 if they don’t. The Twins do have some interesting arms in the minors that will be in the discussion to close for the team in the future. Tyler Jay, the team’s 2015 first round pick, was one of the best college closers last year but the team believes he has a future as a starter. Even if they decide to push him back to the bullpen, it shouldn’t happen this season and it absolutely shouldn’t be in response to a need within the major league team. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but “Don’t aim for a reliever with the sixth overall pick” is a maxim most teams would probably agree with. If Jay ends up as a high-leverage reliever, so be it, but the ceiling on a reliever’s total career value is notably lower than a starter’s. After a stellar turn in the Arizona Fall League, Nick Burdi is positioning himself for a September call-up at the very minimum and could be up before then if the team continues to suffer pitcher injuries in the quantity they’ve had them in the season’s first month. Burdi has a live arm, but he’s still working on control issues with Double-A Chattanooga. If he starts to lock in his command, it’s not hard to see the team deciding to bypass Rochester and bring him all the way up, but his 1.69 WHIP last season means he’s going to need to show that he can limit baserunners consistently before they start moving him aggressively. It’s hard to imagine that timetable being set by the team and met by Burdi before Perkins is ready to rejoin the team. J.T. Chargois is probably the most major league-ready of any reliever in the Twins’ system with solid future potential, but the team would almost certainly want to blood him in before handing him the ninth inning duties. At that point, he’d probably only get 10 appearances or so before Perkins was ready again and there’s no guarantee all 10 would be save opportunities. Even setting aside developmental issues, calling a non-essential player up to make eight appearances of any value makes absolutely no financial sense. That leaves three players already on the major league roster who could conceivably do the job: Jepsen, May, and Alex Meyer. Though my feeling on Meyer haven’t changed since he was acquired for Denard Span (profiles as a reliever more than a starter and will struggle with consistency until he can repeat his delivery) the team is handling him as though they view him as a starter. As with Jay, this likely maximizes Meyer’s value, and he should be given every chance to prove he can do it, but with him already on the major league roster, a two-month stint in the bullpen isn’t likely to do any lasting damage. It would, however, stunt any development as a starter until next season. Another potential downside to the move is that there’s absolutely no guarantee that he’ll be an improvement on Jepsen. Terry Ryan has said multiple times over the last few months that the franchise’s long-term plan with May was to have him in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. If that were not the case, May could easily assume the closer role, and there would be a serious discussion about whether Perkins was going to automatically get his job back upon his return. May needs some refinement as a reliever -- he has over half as many wild pitches as a reliever (4) as he had as a starter (7) despite facing 362 fewer hitters -- but his strikeout rate has taken a huge leap forward since he moved to the bullpen last season, which is a good skill for a potential closer to have. Less good would be the aforementioned wild pitches and his walk rate, which has also risen substantially since he left the starting rotation. So, if the Twins are bereft of other obvious options, are they doomed to sink with Davis-esque millstone lashed to their collective necks? Not hardly. Jepsen’s 2015 stint with the Twins was one of the best extended stretches of his entire career. A 30-game run from May to June in 2014 when he was still with the Angels was slightly better, but the Twins still got production from their midseason acquisition that the Rays never got and the Angels only saw in fits and starts. If there was any question about Jepsen’s role with the Twins after last year, it was only whether he might supplant Perkins as the closer even absent any injury consideration. In fact, as Perkins fatigued, Jepsen stepped in and gave the Twins a good option at the end of games as they stayed in the playoff chase until the end. His start to this season was obviously suboptimal, but Jepsen does have a history of improving as the year goes on. He has been something of a slow starter throughout his career, peaking in July, then typically fading a little bit down the stretch; he’s far from the only player to follow that type of pattern. It’s not hard to see why Jepsen is struggling: Too few first pitch strikes, too few hitters chasing his out-of-the-zone pitches they can’t hit, too much hard contact, too many home runs, all of which looks less like a systemic collapse and more like a pitcher who just isn’t quite sharp yet and is paying the price for it. Reliever numbers have a tendency to look outsized in either direction; Jepsen looked better than he probably was last year and now the pendulum has swung the other direction. It’s unlikely that the Twins see the same Jepsen they saw last year, but betting on him to get better and at least return to being more of an asset than a liability isn’t a bad bet. The other reason to keep Jepsen in his current role is a value play. If the Twins continue to muddle well below the .500 mark, Jepsen becomes trade bait starting around Memorial Day. The worst thing to do for his value -- which admittedly isn’t even as high as it was when the Twins traded Chih-Wei Hu for him last season -- would be to let him tank his value the way he has so far this season, then bury him in the pecking order and only bring him back out in low-leverage situations. Even with Jepsen’s track record as a serviceable late-inning option, that would basically cripple whatever market for him would have formed otherwise. Even if Jepsen does make a run at Davis’ blown saves mark, Twins fans can take solace in two things. One, it’s unlikely that Jepsen can blow 11 more saves before Perkins returns, keeping Davis’ ignominy from spreading into the 21st century. And two, given the way the American League is shaping up, it’s fairly unlikely that the Twins are going to just barely miss the playoffs.