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Buxton's Offense Is Launching... Or Has It Launched?
TwerkTwonkTwins posted a blog entry in Ryan Stephan's Twinpinions
Byron Buxton has proven that he will provide multiple wins above replacement, if he stays healthy and hits at an acceptably average level. The bad news is that Buxton failed to stay healthy for the latter half of 2019, limiting what could have been. The great news is that he appeared to be making major swing and philosophy adjustments that may lead to above-average offensive production going forward. The first step was reducing his strikeout rate (K%), that allowed him to have a chance to put more balls in play. While Buxton may never have a strikeout rate below 20%, his 2019 K% of 23.1% decreased by a difference of 22% year-over-year. He also doubled his walk rate (BB%) from his disaster 2018 season, to significantly improve his BB/K ratio to 0.28. If Buxton can continue reducing his strikeout rate (it was over 30% in his first two seasons), and keep his walk rate steady, he will have many more chances to receive more pitches and drive the ball. Another major problem in the beginning of Buxton's career was watching too many early pitches become established in the strike zone, and he would proceed to flail at the third strike when he was in protect-mode. Pitchers threw nearly the same amount of pitches in the zone from 2018 to 2019, but Buxton continued his 4-year trend of swinging at more of these pitches (Z-Swing%). Buxton's contact of pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%) has remained constant throughout his career at roughly 82%, but that's not a bad thing. If contact is constant, but his trend of an increasing ZSwing% continues, Buxton will continue to increase his total contact events on hittable pitches. More aggression on pitches in the zone also reduces pitcher's counts, and ultimately strikeouts. He's come a long way from watching nearly 40% of pitches in the zone go on by in 2015. Increasing total contact on hittable pitches is swell, but the contact result is what matters in the end. Buxton's balls in play had encouraging results in 2019, establishing a career low in groundball rate (GB%) and a career high in flyball rate (FB%). Our new savior, Josh Donaldson previously said, "...they don't pay you for groundballs. They pay you for doubles, they pay you for homers." Well said, Josh. Buxton clearly took note of this philosophy, but how did he increase his flyball rate? Launch angle. Buxton's average launch angle of 19.5 degrees ranked 17th among all MLB players with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and this also led the team that set the single season home run record. In addition to lifting the ball more often, he was also making stronger contact than ever before. Buxton set career highs in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage in 2019. He was also above the MLB averages in each of these metrics, becoming a below-the-radar Statcast darling. It was an absolute shame Buxton's season ended prematurely, but his trajectory is promising if he can stay on the field. Buxton's changes - reducing his strikeout rate, increasing aggressiveness within the zone, higher launch angle, and harder contact - resulted in a 111 wRC+ for 2019. The path to becoming an above average offensive player has been a long and winding road for Buxton, but he finally arrived after trending in the correct direction for years.- 9 comments
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Tonight the Twins were shut out through seven innings. In this year of the #BombaSquad, I began to realize that I couldn't remember the last time the Twins were shut out. As the game advanced, I began to wonder just what kind of unicorn we were experiencing tonight. So I investigated. Obviously, two late runs were scored as the game ended in a 6-2 loss to Boston, but this was another interesting perspective on the offensive prowess of the 2019 Twins. Let's be clear about something up front: tonight's experience of being nearly shut out says much more about Boston's starter Eduardo Rodriguez than it does about the Twins. Including tonight's 7 innings without giving up an earned run, Rodriguez has now gone at least 7 innings without giving up an earned run in three of his last four starts. He's having a very nice late August into September, and has brought his ERA down from 4.31 on August 12 to 3.81 after tonight in those four starts. But the question remained in my mind: how often have the Twins been shut out this season? The answer: three times. All at Target Field. This also say some interesting things about how much better this homer-heavy team has performed on the road in 2019. The shutouts came on April 30 to Houston (11-0), June 17 to Boston (2-0), and August 21 to Chicago (4-0). So I was not fooling myself. It has been a rare occurrence. For some perspective, three shutouts thus far put the Twins tied for third place in MLB: the Yankees have only been shut out once, Oakland twice, and the Twins, Dodgers, and Atlanta with three each. To compare, Miami brings in the lead (?) with 20 shutouts thus far in 2019. So the 2019 Twins are not being shut out often. How does this compare in Twins' history? I'm glad you didn't ask: but if you had, I would tell you that three puts in the 2019 squad in a tie for second place since 1960. The 2017 team was only shut out twice on their way to a Wild Card game loss in the Bronx. The 1965 team also was only shut out three times on their way to the American League pennant. At this point, an "on pace" query would round down to a guess of the 2019 Twins staying on that number of three for the year. And while it's a long shot, there is still a chance for the Yankees and Oakland to be shut out some more to bring the Twins into a lead in this obscure category. The Twins are still in position to set some very obscure history in that they do not have a shutout on the road yet in 2019. If they can finish out the season keeping this going, it would be the first time in Twins' history. This year, the Yankees join the Twins in not having been shut out on the road. So it seems that Eddie Rosario's eighth inning #Bomba was not completely meaningless. At the very least, it changed the number in the score column off a zero. And on the road no less!
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I recently moved to the Anaheim area and was lucky enough to be able to attend Tuesday evenings' game (5/21/19). I also was able to get to a Dodgers' game a few weeks ago against the Nationals. I've been watching the Twins all season on TV (the 5pm start and 8pm finish of the weekday games is glorious), and I am always confident that we are going to end up having a shot to win any game as long as we keep it within 2 or 3 runs because our lineup is beautiful (so deep). The Twins won handedly last night as you all know, but throughout the game something about the team just does not give me that championship edge feel. Especially when I was just able to see a squad like the Dodgers mash the ball around and seemingly always be in control of the game. (I am 'young' and have never seen a Minnesota championship, so I may just be thinking it is never going to occur for any of the teams that I love.) There are so many things to love about the team especially on the offensive side, it feels like runs can be scored at absolutely any part of the lineup with so many great on base percentages and guys mashing balls all over the gaps and out of the park. Maybe this bullpen just doesn't do it for me. Maybe they will clean it up. What do the Twins need to give them that edge? Do you think they already have all of the pieces for a championship run? If we are missing something, what and how do we acquire? GO TWINS GO
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Though the Twins' offense has struggled to generate many runs in the month of June, their tremendous success in May and the method of their outburst against the White Sox yesterday reminds us all of what has worked for the team all year: Hit Clusters. Now, the Twins, along with local business partners in the breakfast cereal industry are out to share the secret of their winning ways with the populace at large in this new advertisement for a special Twins Centric Cereal! [Our first shot is of Twins clubhouse where a dejected looking Kennys Vargas and Byron Buxton sit at the team breakfast table] Kennys: It isn't easy to be a big leaguer... Byron: Yeah, and you'd think they'd be able to afford something better than simple toast for us too... [Brian Dozier enters, with a big smile and, if possible, animated unicorns and ninjas] Brian: Are you guys tired of your boring breakfasts and wishing you could score more runs?!? Kennys: That is literally what we were just saying. Brian: Try HIT CLUSTER CEREAL! A joint venture of the Minnesota Twins, General Mills, and Malt o Meal! The official Cluster-Based Cereal of the Minnesota Twins!! http://www.350sweets.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/whitchocclusters2.jpg Byron: Do we have an Official Non-Cluster-Based Cereal? Brian: Don't change the subject Rookie!! HIT CLUSTER CEREAL contains all the valuable nutrients you need to connect hits together for a big inning!! [A series of other smiling Twins players appear with the cereal] Torii Hunter: It's got Single Almonds! Trevor Plouffe: It's got Double Granola Granules!! Eddie Rosario: It's got Triple Fiber Flakes!!! Brian Dozier: Not to mention Home Run Flavor!!!! Joe Mauer: Sometimes, when I really want to cut loose, I even have some with vitamin rich Milk. Torii: For the last time Joe, don't flaunt your decadent party life style in front of the kids! Joe: Sorry... Brian: C'mon Guys! Try a bite!! Kennys: Wow! That taste sure comes through in the clutch! [All the Twins Laugh heartily before the final Voice Over] VOICE OVER: Hit Cluster Cereal is available for a limited time only, and is part of a balanced breakfast with other great Official Minnesota Twins foodstuffs like "Base on Balls Bread" and "Orange (You Glad We're Facing White Sox Pitchers) Juice"
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