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It doesn't have a lot to do with Michael Wacha. Image courtesy of Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports A recent report in The Athletic, which reads more like an off-hand comment than a groundbreaking revelation, purports that the Twins have expressed interest in RHP Michael Wacha. Now, “expressed interest” is a favorite baseball term that can loosely define every style of relationship a team can have with a player. Thad Levine vaguely dreaming about Wacha could lead to the team “expressing interest.” The Phillies have “expressed interest” in Mike Trout for a decade. The term means nothing. The connection makes sense, though. The Twins have yet to sign a major-league pitcher; Wacha is an arm capable of accruing outs between reasonable levels of runs scoring. With a bunch of theoretical payroll space and Carlos Correa probably still signing with the Mets, the Twins should spend their money on something. It’s a perfect pairing. But we’ve been down this path before. J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer are four other arms who once possessed some nebulous upside, enough to convince a professional franchise to pay them money for their pitching labor. What happened after those players signed is well-known; we don’t have to tread that path again. Wacha is his own man, though; it would be unfair—and illogical—to believe he would match those past pitcher’s sins just because he loosely fits their outline. The Red Sox, Mets, and Rays, teams run by baseball people far brighter than us casuals, looked at Wacha, glanced at his numbers, and believed in him enough to guarantee millions of dollars to the former Cardinal standout. These weren’t teams chasing a false promise; they fairly gambled that, with a few alterations, Wacha could provide enough production to bring their franchise value. The bet didn’t work for the Mets or Rays, but it worked enough for the Red Sox that one could generously declare their deal a success. So, Wacha could do the same for Minnesota; that possibility remains tangible. The issue is a baseball-specific sunk cost fallacy mixed with classic roster manipulation. Those past deals—beyond turning sour as each pitcher failed to play well—failed because the Twins continued to send those arms out to die. Bundy inhaled 140 real major-league innings. He’ll now slither into baseball obscurity on a minor-league deal with *insert team here.* Or he’ll become an ace. Baseball is funny like that. The Twins told Bundy to go get 'em so often because, well, they were paying him $4 million, and people like seeing a return on their investment, but also because of flexibility. Or, rather, a lack of it. In a naturally conservative institution like baseball, hitting the eject button on a player is a nearly unalterable act. Without those tasty minor-league options, a franchise has to sneak a player by other teams, hoping that no one notices that a capable arm is now free for anyone to acquire. When that fails because the Diamondbacks need someone to throw slop for them, the team takes a vicious hit to their depth. So Bundy stays because he’s somewhat usable. In that sense, Bundy is useful; every team unwillingly hands out innings to players they’d prefer to avoid starting—hopefully, Adam Wilk is enjoying life. It’s the nature of pitching. But Bundy also blocks others. Louie Varland remains in the minors because Bundy isn’t terrible; he certainly earned a few victories for the Twins, but is he so much better than Varland that the Twins should eschew the youngster in favor of the veteran? This was the essential issue of the 2022 Twins; no one was truly horrifyingly bad, but instead existed in a mediocre haven, making it difficult for the team ever to cut bait. At least Shoemaker made it clear he was cooked. Wacha is probably not better than Varland; that’s the article. If you sign a pitcher with a good chance at being below-average—and without disrespect, Wacha fits that mold—you create fake depth; at least Varland can go to St. Paul if he starts pitching poorly. With Wacha, you just have to grin and bear it, only cutting bait once he reaches unforgivable status. Or, in Twins shorthand, if he “Shoemakers” it. View full article

The calendar has flipped to 2023 and still the Twins have done nothing to meaningfully improve their roster while free agency has run dry. They now turn their attention to the trade market in an effort to salvage this wayward offseason and ignite any semblance of enthusiasm within their fanbase. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports The lingering storyline and elephant in the room – for Minnesota and MLB at large – is Carlos Correa's situation with the Mets. The shortstop agreed to terms with Steve Cohen and New York more than two weeks ago, but still no contract has been signed as the Mets – like the Giants before them – ran into concerns in Correa's physical. It's a bizarre situation that grows weirder with each passing day. There's been almost no public information shared about the progression of Correa's negotiations with the Mets, other than they were "expected to pick up again soon" as of Monday. At least, up until Jon Heyman reported on Thursday evening that the two sides were "gaining momentum" toward a deal. "The latest word," Heyman writes, "is that while the main terms – $315M over 12 years – may be unlikely to change much, if at all, the Mets have made clear they are intent on diminishing their risk via important language additions and/or alterations." While the odds of Correa's original $315 million fully guaranteed deal coming to fruition now seem small, there remains a general sense that he and New York will ultimately settle, and perhaps soon. (Heyman suggested that it could happen by the end of the week.) Even if the market opens up, it seems unlikely the Twins will now take the long-term plunge on a player whose risk level has publicly skyrocketed. Given how many weighty injury concerns already control their fate going forward, it's debatable whether they should. With that covered, let's catch up on where things stand for the Twins as we turn our attention to the home stretch of the offseason, with pitchers and catchers reporting in just six weeks. Catching Up on Twins Offseason Moves To say the front office's work so far this winter has been underwhelming would be an understatement. Coming off a third-place season, there's been nothing resembling a shakeup or significant improvement thus far. Here's a quick recap of notable moves up to this point: Acquired INF Kyle Farmer in trade for RHP Casey Legumina Traded 3B Gio Urshela to Angels for RHP Alejandro Hidalgo Signed free agent C Christian Vazquez for 3 years and $30M Signed free agent OF Joey Gallo for 1 year and $11M Aaand, that's it! The Twins addressed one clear need – signing Vazquez to fill their gaping catcher vacancy – and have otherwise just sort of shifted things around on the fringes, building necessary depth in some cases (Farmer and Vazquez) and oddly unnecessary depth in others (Gallo). What comes next? Well, speaking of oddly unnecessary depth... Twins Reportedly Showing Interest in Free Agent Starter Wacha As usual, the Twins whiffed on the upper echelon of pitching free agency, leaving them to peruse what's left here in January and February. According to The Athletic, the club has shown interest in one of the best remaining starting pitcher options available: right-hander Michael Wacha, who played for the Red Sox in 2022. On the surface, he seems like a worthy target to upgrade the rotation. Last year in Boston, he went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP – Sonny Gray numbers, if not better! The problem, and the reason Wacha remains on the market, is that every underlying metric points to significantly underperforming those numbers and embodying the same mediocre starter he's long been. Wacha has a career 4.05 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Last year his FIP checked in at 4.14, nearly a full run higher than his ERA. His K/9 rate plummeted to match a career low at 7.4. He fits the Twins mold as a strike-throwing righty with a low-90s fastball and great changeup, but Wacha is a thoroughly average pitcher with minimal upside at this stage of his career. I'm not saying he's useless. And I'm not saying the Twins couldn't use rotation depth. But it's unclear what he really adds other than redundancy, and it'll come at an inflated cost. For the front office to sign him would very much carry a "well, what else are we gonna spend it on at this point" vibe. At this rate it's getting harder to disagree with Matthew Taylor's assertion from mid-December: the Twins front office played themselves by watching every impact free agent come off the board during their futile pursuit of Correa, and are now left with an extreme uphill battle to put together even a satisfactory offseason. The only way to reverse their fortunes and rejuvenate fan confidence, it seems, would be with at least one high-profile trade. Trade Season Is Upon Us With free agency cleared out, front offices like Minnesota's must now turn to the trade market in search of upgrades. We tend to see talent swaps pick up quite a bit during this stage of the offseason. Earlier this winter, the Twins were reportedly discussing a Jorge Lopez trade with the Marlins. It's possible those two teams will revisit talks. Of course, Max Kepler is also known to be on the block – especially with Gallo now in tow – but there's been surprisingly little chatter regarding his market. One possibility we sadly must consider is that the Twins will pivot into a short rebuild or "step back," seeking to flip some of their short-term assets for future talent as they stare ahead to steep uncertainty in 2023. Dan Hayes posits that with free agent pitching picked over, "Gray could be a perfect sell-high trade piece to a team looking to add a good starting pitcher," suggesting essentially that Wacha could be his replacement. It's one path, I guess. An incredibly uninspiring path that would leave me and plenty of other Twins fans rightfully disgruntled. Roster and Payroll Projection: v4 Little has changed since the last update in mid-December, except that I've added the versatile Willi Castro – signed to a minor-league contract just before the New Year – as a utilityman to round out the bench. The 25-year-old has 300 games of major-league experience in Detroit, including 112 last year, where he played every position except first base and catcher. With his addition, the Twins could basically field an Opening Day roster as comprised below, and it wouldn't be embarrassing. But, it also wouldn't be exciting or energizing for an embattled fan base, nor would it fit the MO of a front office that likes to (eventually) rattle the cage. I suspect we'll see this mix shaken up in a major way before long. View full article