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Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Lance Lynn Trade?
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Time can change the view of a trades, so here’ what was said back in 2018 at the time of the deal. What Did People Say at the Time of the Trade? Lynn had only made 20 starts for the Twins at the time of the deal and he was excited to be heading to a contender. "As a fan of the game growing up, it's exciting for me as a young kid seeing them in their heyday winning a lot of World Series championships," Lynn said at the time. "You look at their team now, they're going for it. I'm excited for that opportunity and that challenge. It's going to be a different experience. I'm just going to go in there and try to do everything I can to help wherever that may be." Baseball Prospectus discussed Austin’s prospect status before he finally broke into the big leagues. “the Yankees have mostly used Austin as an up-and-down fill-in when their better plans at first base or designated hitter have gone awry. He’s continued to put up big numbers for the International League in his Triple-A stints, and he’s consistently hit for power if not average when in the bigs.” At the time, Tom wrote at Twins Daily and gave the Twins an A-grade for this trade. Lynn had been lackluster during his Twins tenure and Tom was surprised Lynn had this kind of trade value. He wrote, “Honestly, if this was Lynn for Luis Rijo straight up, I would have been impressed. Rijo has an insane 8.36 K:BB ratio in 125 ⅓ innings over his minor league career. He also tops out at 93 mph, so it’s not like it’s all just smoke and mirrors.” Lynn’s New York Tenure Lynn was joining a Yankees pitching staff that already had five starters in front of him. Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray and JA Happ were ahead of Lynn in the rotation. Even with that depth, nine of Lynn’s 11 appearances with New York came as a starter. He posted a 4.14 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. He posted a 102 ERA+ and struck out 61 while only walking 14. It was an improvement over his time with the Twins. In the playoffs, Lynn made two relief appearances in the ALDS and things didn’t go as well. He allowed three runs in 2 1/3 innings with a 2.14 WHIP and as many walks (2) as strikeouts (2). New York fell to Boston in four games and Lynn signed a free agent deal with Texas that winter. Minnesota’s Return Austin played 37 games for the Twins over the next two seasons and hit .236/.298/.488 with nine home runs and five doubles. He struck out in nearly 32% of his plate appearances and the Twins dealt him to the San Francisco Giants for outfielder Malique Ziegler. Since joining the Twins, Ziegler played in 18 games at High-A where he posted a .442 OPS and dealt with some injuries. He turned 24-years old in September and a lost 2020 season hurt his chances to get closer to the big leagues. Luis Rijo is a little more intriguing even though the Twins have left him unprotected in each of the last two Rule 5 Drafts. His last appearances came at Low-A back 2019, so that’s likely one of the biggest reasons a team hasn’t claimed him. In that season, he posted a 2.86 ERA with 99 strikeouts over 107 innings. All those appearances were as a starter, but the bullpen might be an intriguing option moving forward, especially since his fastball already sits in the mid-90s. Who Won the Trade? Another part of the trade was the fact Minnesota had to eat $4.5 million of Lynn’s contract. This likely allowed the Twins to get any kind of value back in this trade. While Austin didn’t exactly pan out, Rijo still has potential to be a viable pitcher at the big-league level and he might have a better chance to contribute if he can make a successful transition to the bullpen. It was lucky the Twins could get anything for Lynn after the way his career started with the team. Looking back, what do you think about the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. If you missed any of the previous posts in this series: -Brian Dozier Trade -Ryan Pressly Trade -Eduardo Escobar Trade MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email -
ALDS Game 2 Minnesota Twins (101-61) @ New York Yankees (104-58) Series: 1-0 Yankees Start Time: 5:07 PM ET / 4:07 PM CT Forecast: Mid 50s and clear skies Pitching Matchup: Randy Dobnak, RHP vs. Masahiro Tanaka, RHP Lineups: What an amazing run Randy Dobnak as had up through the Twins minor league system this season. After starting the season at High-A Fort Myers, Dobnak quickly got the call up to AA Pensacola. He then rode the carousel up and down between Pensacola and AAA Rochester, before finally getting the call up to the major leagues in August. At the time of his call up, many probably just thought of Dobnak as yet another one of the Twins minor league relievers who was there to eat innings, and then get sent back down to Rochester. However, once rosters expanded in September, Dobnak finally got a chance at a continued stay with the MLB club, and he took full advantage of it. As a result of his success, it compelled me to make a case for Dobnak to start game two of the ALDS a couple of weeks ago. In nine appearances, including five starts, Dobnak posted a stellar 1.59 ERA with 23 strikeouts and just five walks in 28 1/3 innings. Yankees Starter On the mound for the New York Yankees in game two of the ALDS will be thirty-year-old Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka got off to a good start to his 2019 campaign, earning himself a nod in the All-Star Game. However, Tanaka has been abysmal over the second half of the season. Since June 29th, Tanaka has a 5.89 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts). Over that span, Tanaka has struck out just 6.86 and walked 2.03 batters per nine innings. If the Twins want to get back into this series, they will need to jump all over Tanaka early, and put up a number that can help keep this dreaded Yankee offense at bay. Twins Vs Tanaka Masahiro Tanaka is already in his sixth season in the Major Leagues, and in that time eight of the 13 hitters on the Twins postseason roster have faced Tanaka before. In the table below, we can see how each of those players have performed against Tanaka in their careers. From this chart, it looks like the Twins hitters haven’t had a lot of success facing Tanaka. Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are the only two who have done anything against him. While, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzales and Max Kepler have looked absolutely awful against Tanaka. However, it appears as though Kepler has run into a bit of bad luck, as he has hit the ball really well against Tanaka, though it has resulted in just one hit. Hopefully, Kepler can have a reversal of fortunes in Game 2 of the ALDS. One of the overlooked talking points of last night’s game was the bullpen usage, specifically among the back end of each team’s bullpen. Among the Twins top four relievers, only Tyler Duffey made an appearance in game one, throwing 25 pitches. However, each of the Yankees top four relievers, Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Tommy Kahnle all made an appearance in game one. Given the substantial drop off that pitchers have while pitching on zero days of rest, when compared to how they do when they are well rested, this should give the Twins a big advantage if the game is close down the stretch. -
It is safe to say game one did not go the way that many Twins fans would have hoped, but we have to find a way to put that behind us and gear up for game two of the series. It Twins can come away with a win in game two, they will suddenly find themselves in the driver's seat with the series tied and heading back to Minnesota. However, if they lose to the Yankees yet again, they will have dug themselves quite the hole to get out of.ALDS Game 2 Minnesota Twins (101-61) @ New York Yankees (104-58) Series: 1-0 Yankees Start Time: 5:07 PM ET / 4:07 PM CT Forecast: Mid 50s and clear skies Pitching Matchup: Randy Dobnak, RHP vs. Masahiro Tanaka, RHP Lineups: Download attachment: Lineups1005.png What an amazing run Randy Dobnak as had up through the Twins minor league system this season. After starting the season at High-A Fort Myers, Dobnak quickly got the call up to AA Pensacola. He then rode the carousel up and down between Pensacola and AAA Rochester, before finally getting the call up to the major leagues in August. At the time of his call up, many probably just thought of Dobnak as yet another one of the Twins minor league relievers who was there to eat innings, and then get sent back down to Rochester. However, once rosters expanded in September, Dobnak finally got a chance at a continued stay with the MLB club, and he took full advantage of it. As a result of his success, it compelled me to make a case for Dobnak to start game two of the ALDS a couple of weeks ago. In nine appearances, including five starts, Dobnak posted a stellar 1.59 ERA with 23 strikeouts and just five walks in 28 1/3 innings. Yankees Starter On the mound for the New York Yankees in game two of the ALDS will be thirty-year-old Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka got off to a good start to his 2019 campaign, earning himself a nod in the All-Star Game. However, Tanaka has been abysmal over the second half of the season. Since June 29th, Tanaka has a 5.89 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts). Over that span, Tanaka has struck out just 6.86 and walked 2.03 batters per nine innings. If the Twins want to get back into this series, they will need to jump all over Tanaka early, and put up a number that can help keep this dreaded Yankee offense at bay. Twins Vs Tanaka Masahiro Tanaka is already in his sixth season in the Major Leagues, and in that time eight of the 13 hitters on the Twins postseason roster have faced Tanaka before. In the table below, we can see how each of those players have performed against Tanaka in their careers. Download attachment: Twins vs Tanaka ALDS Game 2 Preview.PNG From this chart, it looks like the Twins hitters haven’t had a lot of success facing Tanaka. Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are the only two who have done anything against him. While, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzales and Max Kepler have looked absolutely awful against Tanaka. However, it appears as though Kepler has run into a bit of bad luck, as he has hit the ball really well against Tanaka, though it has resulted in just one hit. Hopefully, Kepler can have a reversal of fortunes in Game 2 of the ALDS. One of the overlooked talking points of last night’s game was the bullpen usage, specifically among the back end of each team’s bullpen. Among the Twins top four relievers, only Tyler Duffey made an appearance in game one, throwing 25 pitches. However, each of the Yankees top four relievers, Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Tommy Kahnle all made an appearance in game one. Given the substantial drop off that pitchers have while pitching on zero days of rest, when compared to how they do when they are well rested, this should give the Twins a big advantage if the game is close down the stretch. Click here to view the article- 9 replies
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Something drastic will need to be done in order to keep this team relevant. The front office turnover made some waves, but it was followed by a typically quiet offseason for the Twins. To be fair, with a free agent pitching class "headlined" by Rich Hill and Ivan Nova, this wasn't the winter to make a huge signing. Next offseason it'll be a different story, however, and the Twins should be in a great position to make a big splash. Can't imagine the Pohlad's approving a marquee signing? Well, they have very little money tied up beyond 2018, so there should be plenty of room in the budget. The only guys signed through the 2019 season are Phil Hughes ($13.2M), Jason Castro ($8M) and ByungHo Park ($3M). So without further ado, let's play my favorite game: Spend the Pohlad Family's Money! MLB Trade Rumors released its top 10 free agents for the 2017-18 off season this week, and the class looks to be flush with starting pitching. The list is topped by Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka. It's worth noting that both Cueto and Tanaka would have to opt out of their current contracts to become free agents, and it's possible between now and then one of those top guys signs an extension. None of those big four free agents has even turned 32 yet, with 28-year-old Tanaka being the youngest. Arrieta was a Cy Young winner in 2015 and both Darvish (2013) and Cueto (2014) have a runner-up finish for the award. I'm drooling just at the thought of any one of these guys in a Twins jersey, but each of them will command a hefty salary and all have some questions to answer in 2017. Arrieta looked human from June on last season, posting a 4.05 ERA, then had a 3.63 ERA in the playoffs. There are some durability concerns with both of the Japanese imports, but at least we know Darvish's UCL has been repaired. Tanaka had an elbow injury in 2014, but he elected to forego surgery. Seems to have worked out for him, but that arm could be a ticking time bomb. Cueto has been a workhorse, but his underwhelming run with Kansas City in 2015 may cause AL teams to shy away. But even beyond that impressive foursome, is yet another group of less tantalizing, yet still intriguing names. Chris Tillman, Micheal Pineda and Alex Cobb are among that next tier, and could dramatically improve their stock this season. Here's a quick look at the numbers: LAST THREE SEASONS Arrieta: 2.42 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 Darvish: 3.20 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 11.55 K/9, 2.94 BB/9 Cueto: 2.80 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 8.21 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 Tanaka: 3.12 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 Tillman: 3.99 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 6.68 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 Pineda: 4.10 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 Cobb: 3.54 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 7.88 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 Assuming the 2017 Twins put the worst season in franchise history behind them and look to be playoff contenders in 2018, which of these guys would you prefer? Would you pay top dollar, or wait out the market to see if there's a bargain? Or do you avoid free agency all together? Is it too early to be speculating on such things? Absolutely, but c'mon, let's have some fun. The guy I'd personally most like to see would be Darvish, and perhaps having Thad Levine around could be helpful in landing the strikeout machine. Levine was with the Rangers when they signed Darvish out of Japan, so he likely knows a thing or two about what makes the big righty tick. Even if the Twins can scrounge up the $150 or so million it'll cost to sign one of the top flight guys like Darvish, will they even want to come to Minnesota, or take less to play for a World Series contender? That's where Derek Falvey is going to have to earn his salary. Between now and next winter, he will need to get the franchise in good enough shape to be able to convincingly tell free agents "this team will be in the playoffs next season." The front office was apparently unable to deliver that message to Mike Napoli, who took less money and a shorter commitment to play for the Rangers. Continuing failure to attract free agents is going to result in a continuing failure to attract fan interest. -
The Gophers are (correction, were) in the Big Dance, the Wild are Stanley Cup contenders, even the Timberwolves are fighting for a playoff berth and 35,000 fans recently attended the first Major League Soccer game in Minnesota. The Twins, meanwhile, have averaged 94 losses the past six seasons, haven't won a single playoff game since 2004 and are expected to post another losing record in the season ahead. Opening Day is right around the corner, and they're essentially an afterthought in the Minnesota sports scene.Something drastic will need to be done in order to keep this team relevant. The front office turnover made some waves, but it was followed by a typically quiet offseason for the Twins. To be fair, with a free agent pitching class "headlined" by Rich Hill and Ivan Nova, this wasn't the winter to make a huge signing. Next offseason it'll be a different story, however, and the Twins should be in a great position to make a big splash. Can't imagine the Pohlad's approving a marquee signing? Well, they have very little money tied up beyond 2018, so there should be plenty of room in the budget. The only guys signed through the 2019 season are Phil Hughes ($13.2M), Jason Castro ($8M) and ByungHo Park ($3M). So without further ado, let's play my favorite game: Spend the Pohlad Family's Money! MLB Trade Rumors released its top 10 free agents for the 2017-18 off season this week, and the class looks to be flush with starting pitching. The list is topped by Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka. It's worth noting that both Cueto and Tanaka would have to opt out of their current contracts to become free agents, and it's possible between now and then one of those top guys signs an extension. None of those big four free agents has even turned 32 yet, with 28-year-old Tanaka being the youngest. Arrieta was a Cy Young winner in 2015 and both Darvish (2013) and Cueto (2014) have a runner-up finish for the award. I'm drooling just at the thought of any one of these guys in a Twins jersey, but each of them will command a hefty salary and all have some questions to answer in 2017. Arrieta looked human from June on last season, posting a 4.05 ERA, then had a 3.63 ERA in the playoffs. There are some durability concerns with both of the Japanese imports, but at least we know Darvish's UCL has been repaired. Tanaka had an elbow injury in 2014, but he elected to forego surgery. Seems to have worked out for him, but that arm could be a ticking time bomb. Cueto has been a workhorse, but his underwhelming run with Kansas City in 2015 may cause AL teams to shy away. But even beyond that impressive foursome, is yet another group of less tantalizing, yet still intriguing names. Chris Tillman, Micheal Pineda and Alex Cobb are among that next tier, and could dramatically improve their stock this season. Here's a quick look at the numbers: LAST THREE SEASONS Arrieta: 2.42 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 Darvish: 3.20 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 11.55 K/9, 2.94 BB/9 Cueto: 2.80 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 8.21 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 Tanaka: 3.12 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 Tillman: 3.99 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 6.68 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 Pineda: 4.10 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 Cobb: 3.54 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 7.88 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 Assuming the 2017 Twins put the worst season in franchise history behind them and look to be playoff contenders in 2018, which of these guys would you prefer? Would you pay top dollar, or wait out the market to see if there's a bargain? Or do you avoid free agency all together? Is it too early to be speculating on such things? Absolutely, but c'mon, let's have some fun. The guy I'd personally most like to see would be Darvish, and perhaps having Thad Levine around could be helpful in landing the strikeout machine. Levine was with the Rangers when they signed Darvish out of Japan, so he likely knows a thing or two about what makes the big righty tick. Even if the Twins can scrounge up the $150 or so million it'll cost to sign one of the top flight guys like Darvish, will they even want to come to Minnesota, or take less to play for a World Series contender? That's where Derek Falvey is going to have to earn his salary. Between now and next winter, he will need to get the franchise in good enough shape to be able to convincingly tell free agents "this team will be in the playoffs next season." The front office was apparently unable to deliver that message to Mike Napoli, who took less money and a shorter commitment to play for the Rangers. Continuing failure to attract free agents is going to result in a continuing failure to attract fan interest. Click here to view the article- 125 replies
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Giggle. Let's not fight it, OK? Let's embrace the schadenfreud. For years, small market wallet watchers have been predicting the Yankees were due for a fall as the Bronx Bombers relied more and more on free agents, big contracts and an aging roster as revenue sharing limits gained more and more teeth. Last year, we finally got a taste of what that will be like, and it was delicious. Vegas noticed too, and have picked the best team money can buy to finish fourth in the AL East. Ooh-ooh-ooh - and did I mention they also get to pay Alex Rodriguez $20M to strut around the locker room for the next three years? I'll say it again: giggle.Year In Review Like the fall of most empires, it wasn't a huge implosion, but a series of ever-widening cracks that led to deterioration. Vegas watched the Yankees offseason spending spree and set a number in the mid to high 80s to meet, but a lot of the big signings came up short. Biggest among them was (and continues to be) ace pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Tananka dominated to the tune of a 2.77 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning, but there were too few of those innings - just 136 - because he was limited to 20 starts with a sore elbow. Worse, he still has pain that he's just (effectively) pitching through. So there is no guarantee that he'll be healthy for the duration of this year. Tanaka's status mirrored that of a lot of the team. The new slimmer CC Sabathia was limited to only eight starts, big free agent signee Carlos Beltran played in only 109 games, Mark Teixeira struggled with a wrist injury and of course A-Rod was suspended. The Yankees are counting on bounceback seasons from these guys, and if they stay healthy, the could get it, but here are their respective ages as of July 1: 34, 38, 35, 39. Their expected health is debatable. Add that all up, and the Yankees still finished over .500 with 84 wins, which is an accomplishment given that they were outscored on the year. With those results amid all their injuries, it may not be surprising that the Yankees had a pretty quiet offseason. They replaced free agent closer David Robertson by signing setup stud Andrew Miller, but other than that, the Yankees treated this offseason like a do-over. They let Hiroki Kuroda walk. He was their most durable and effective starting pitcher. The other two big departures are probably more about losing big names than impact players, but they're still losses: Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter. Vegas Says “There are enough Yankees bobos betting money in New York that the number has to be higher than they deserve, and maybe they'll get lucky and keep people healthy. Still, I'm lowering last year's 86.5 line.” = 81.5. Beating Vegas I try not to bet on the Yankees for the same reason I try not to bet on the Twins; wishful thinking gets in the way. But if I had to bet, I'd bet the under. Practically, their run differential is more like a 77 win team than the 84 wins they tallied last year, and there is a lot more room for downside than upside given the age of this team. And karmically, it feels a lot like a franchise that just lost its identity, is floating through purgatory and is a lot closer to hell than heaven. . Click here to view the article -
Year In Review Like the fall of most empires, it wasn't a huge implosion, but a series of ever-widening cracks that led to deterioration. Vegas watched the Yankees offseason spending spree and set a number in the mid to high 80s to meet, but a lot of the big signings came up short. Biggest among them was (and continues to be) ace pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Tananka dominated to the tune of a 2.77 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning, but there were too few of those innings - just 136 - because he was limited to 20 starts with a sore elbow. Worse, he still has pain that he's just (effectively) pitching through. So there is no guarantee that he'll be healthy for the duration of this year. Tanaka's status mirrored that of a lot of the team. The new slimmer CC Sabathia was limited to only eight starts, big free agent signee Carlos Beltran played in only 109 games, Mark Teixeira struggled with a wrist injury and of course A-Rod was suspended. The Yankees are counting on bounceback seasons from these guys, and if they stay healthy, the could get it, but here are their respective ages as of July 1: 34, 38, 35, 39. Their expected health is debatable. Add that all up, and the Yankees still finished over .500 with 84 wins, which is an accomplishment given that they were outscored on the year. With those results amid all their injuries, it may not be surprising that the Yankees had a pretty quiet offseason. They replaced free agent closer David Robertson by signing setup stud Andrew Miller, but other than that, the Yankees treated this offseason like a do-over. They let Hiroki Kuroda walk. He was their most durable and effective starting pitcher. The other two big departures are probably more about losing big names than impact players, but they're still losses: Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter. Vegas Says “There are enough Yankees bobos betting money in New York that the number has to be higher than they deserve, and maybe they'll get lucky and keep people healthy. Still, I'm lowering last year's 86.5 line.” = 81.5. Beating Vegas I try not to bet on the Yankees for the same reason I try not to bet on the Twins; wishful thinking gets in the way. But if I had to bet, I'd bet the under. Practically, their run differential is more like a 77 win team than the 84 wins they tallied last year, and there is a lot more room for downside than upside given the age of this team. And karmically, it feels a lot like a franchise that just lost its identity, is floating through purgatory and is a lot closer to hell than heaven. .
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