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WARNE: August Waiver Trade Candidates for the Minnesota Twins
Brandon Warne posted a blog entry in BW on the Beat
We’ve established the rules for post-July 31 trades. Now we should take a look at who the Twins might target, right? It’s pretty easy to isolate three areas where the Twins can use some help: Starting pitching Relief pitching Batters who can hit left-handed pitching The pitching woes are hard to miss. Only the Rangers (6.4) have gotten fewer strikeouts per nine innings from starting pitchers than the Twins (6.9), and just four teams have posted higher ERA from their rotations than the Twins (4.89). Similarly, only five teams have a higher bullpen ERA than the Twins (4.53), and no team has a bullpen fanning fewer batters per nine than Minnesota (7.6). With that said, the Twins bullpen has been quite a bit better of late. Only seven teams have a lower ERA over the past 30 days than the Twins (3.53) out of the bullpen, and that comes with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.0 walks per nine and a groundball rate of 47.4 percent. When it comes to making bullpen additions, it’s not just adding that player to a bullpen, though. It’s also swapping out the worst player on the other side of the bullpen. And while that’s a bit tougher to do now than it was a couple months ago, subtracting a Buddy Boshers or an Alan Busenitz now is a bit tougher of a decision than Matt Belisle or Craig Breslow would have been two months ago. Still, there’s room to improve. As an offense, the Twins aren’t far from the middle of the pack. They have a collected wRC+ of 97 — tied for 13th with the Cubs and Reds — and have been around there most of the season. Against righties, they have a 99 wRC+, which is 13th in MLB. Against lefties though, it’s just 89 — 21st in MLB. So the Twins could use some help against lefties, and that’s easy to see with the struggles of Max Kepler, Joe Mauer and others against southpaws this season. So let’s take a look at some pieces that might be made available over the next couple weeks to see who might be a good fit for the Twins: SP Marco Estrada – Toronto Blue Jays Estrada is probably atop every general manager’s list this month as far as teams seeking starting pitching help. His ERA is unsightly (4.85), but it’s backed by a 4.35 FIP, more than a strikeout per inning and a strong recent run. He’s got a 2.08 ERA over his last four starts, which includes pitching the Jays to wins over the Yankees and Astros — the AL’s two best offenses. This deal might take time to get done, as the Jays are just four games out of the second Wild Card and maybe haven’t quite packed it in yet. Please click through to Zone Coverage here to see the rest of this story.- 4 comments
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After reviewing the National League teams last week, Nick reviewed the AL West teams yesterday. STANDINGS Boston Red Sox 56-47 New York Yankees 53-46 1.0 GB Tampa Bay Rays 53-49 2.5 GB Baltimore Orioles 48-53 7.0 GB Toronto Blue Jays 47-54 8.0 GB The Yankees are currently sitting in the first of two wild card positions, a half-game ahead of the Royals. The Rays are a half-game out of the second wild card spot. The Orioles are 4.5 games back, and the Blue Jays are 6.5 games back. THE BUYERS Unlike other divisions that we have highlighted, the AL East has three of their five teams which could fit into the buyers’ category. The Red Sox are already making moves. They released Pablo Sandoval, eating millions upon millions of dollars in salary. They called up top prospect Rafael Devers, and they traded a couple of prospects for former Twins infielder Eduardo Nunez. Last week, the Yankees made a big move, adding third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson from the White Sox. They are believed to be in serious talks with the A’s regarding Sonny Gray. The Rays don’t have the economic means to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for high-priced talent, but they’ll certainly be on the phone a lot over the rest of the week. Also noteworthy, any rumors (real or imagined) a few weeks ago that Chris Archer might be available are certainly untrue now. As the Twins continue to fall behind Cleveland and Kansas City and are further out of the wild card race, the Twins could find interest in the likes of Ervin Santana, Brandon Kintzler and even Jaime Garcia in the AL East. THE SELLERS That leaves two teams that should fit into the sellers category, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles That the Orioles are only a handful of games under .500 is pretty impressive when you consider their starting pitching. Kevin Gausman is 7-7 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. Wade Miley is 4-9 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-6 with a 7.19 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Chris Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. My guess is any of those pitchers would be available. Gausman, the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft, would cost quite a bit and he would be intriguing in the long-term. The other three could be had for very little. The Orioles do have a couple of intriguing relievers. 31-year-old Brad Brach has been very good in the late innings. In 43.1 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He’s got 46 strikeouts over 43.1 innings. Side-winding Darren O’Day is also likely available. Though he’s posting a 4.67 ERA over 34.2 innings, he has 43 strikeouts. Zach Britton has missed most of the season. He was the best reliever in baseball a year ago, but he’s only had limited time since returning and hasn’t yet returned to dominance. The Blue Jays The Jays got off to a terrible start. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitski have missed significant time with injury. They lost Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland and Jose Bautista got off to a miserable start. Bautista might be of interest since he’s come on a bit and his contract is up after the season. The name that Toronto should be throwing out is 1B Justin Smoak who, frankly, hasn’t been very good until this year when he has become a huge power hitter. Sell high. As it relates to the Twins and their need for pitching, the Jays probably aren’t a likely partner. They do, however, have Marcus Stroman who is one of those pitchers that has incredible talent and years of team control remaining. He’s the kind of guy that a team will be willing to give up a lot for, a couple of high-ranking prospects and more. Francisco Liriano hasn’t been particularly good (5.99 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he’s rumored to be of interest for the Royals. Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.52 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) does have 118 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. He could be intriguing. J.A. Happ is 3-7 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He’s pretty Jaime Garcia-like. SUMMARY As noted, the Twins have gone from buyer to we’ll-see, and there’s a chance they could be sellers by the deadline on Monday. That change likely means that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will not go overboard in terms of what they’d be willing to give up right now. However, if they still are buyers, there are some players, particularly a few bullpen guys, who the Twins could have some interest in acquiring.
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A lot has changed in a week. The Twins made a trade. And the Twins have fallen in the races for the American League Central and for the wild card. The team is now under .500 after a tough series, getting swept in Los Angeles, coupled with great play from Cleveland and Kansas City. They are 5.5 games back of Cleveland now, and four games behind second-place Kansas City. They are also four games back of Kansas City for the second wild card spot. The Rays are in between. The Twins are not out of it, but man, in one week they have gone from buyer to potentially selling.After reviewing the National League teams last week, Nick reviewed the AL West teams yesterday. STANDINGS Boston Red Sox 56-47 New York Yankees 53-46 1.0 GB Tampa Bay Rays 53-49 2.5 GB Baltimore Orioles 48-53 7.0 GB Toronto Blue Jays 47-54 8.0 GB The Yankees are currently sitting in the first of two wild card positions, a half-game ahead of the Royals. The Rays are a half-game out of the second wild card spot. The Orioles are 4.5 games back, and the Blue Jays are 6.5 games back. THE BUYERS Unlike other divisions that we have highlighted, the AL East has three of their five teams which could fit into the buyers’ category. The Red Sox are already making moves. They released Pablo Sandoval, eating millions upon millions of dollars in salary. They called up top prospect Rafael Devers, and they traded a couple of prospects for former Twins infielder Eduardo Nunez. Last week, the Yankees made a big move, adding third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson from the White Sox. They are believed to be in serious talks with the A’s regarding Sonny Gray. The Rays don’t have the economic means to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for high-priced talent, but they’ll certainly be on the phone a lot over the rest of the week. Also noteworthy, any rumors (real or imagined) a few weeks ago that Chris Archer might be available are certainly untrue now. As the Twins continue to fall behind Cleveland and Kansas City and are further out of the wild card race, the Twins could find interest in the likes of Ervin Santana, Brandon Kintzler and even Jaime Garcia in the AL East. THE SELLERS That leaves two teams that should fit into the sellers category, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles That the Orioles are only a handful of games under .500 is pretty impressive when you consider their starting pitching. Kevin Gausman is 7-7 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP.Wade Miley is 4-9 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP.Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-6 with a 7.19 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.Chris Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP.My guess is any of those pitchers would be available. Gausman, the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft, would cost quite a bit and he would be intriguing in the long-term. The other three could be had for very little. The Orioles do have a couple of intriguing relievers. 31-year-old Brad Brach has been very good in the late innings. In 43.1 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He’s got 46 strikeouts over 43.1 innings. Side-winding Darren O’Day is also likely available. Though he’s posting a 4.67 ERA over 34.2 innings, he has 43 strikeouts. Zach Britton has missed most of the season. He was the best reliever in baseball a year ago, but he’s only had limited time since returning and hasn’t yet returned to dominance. The Blue Jays The Jays got off to a terrible start. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitski have missed significant time with injury. They lost Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland and Jose Bautista got off to a miserable start. Bautista might be of interest since he’s come on a bit and his contract is up after the season. The name that Toronto should be throwing out is 1B Justin Smoak who, frankly, hasn’t been very good until this year when he has become a huge power hitter. Sell high. As it relates to the Twins and their need for pitching, the Jays probably aren’t a likely partner. They do, however, have Marcus Stroman who is one of those pitchers that has incredible talent and years of team control remaining. He’s the kind of guy that a team will be willing to give up a lot for, a couple of high-ranking prospects and more. Francisco Liriano hasn’t been particularly good (5.99 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he’s rumored to be of interest for the Royals. Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.52 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) does have 118 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. He could be intriguing. J.A. Happ is 3-7 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He’s pretty Jaime Garcia-like. SUMMARY As noted, the Twins have gone from buyer to we’ll-see, and there’s a chance they could be sellers by the deadline on Monday. That change likely means that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will not go overboard in terms of what they’d be willing to give up right now. However, if they still are buyers, there are some players, particularly a few bullpen guys, who the Twins could have some interest in acquiring. Click here to view the article
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