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WARNE: How Can the Twins Find Their Brewers-like Path to October?
Brandon Warne posted a blog entry in BW on the Beat
This is an excerpt of an article that appears at Zone Coverage, click here to read it in full! By the looks of it, it was going to be a battle reminiscent of David and Goliath. Well, that is, the way Vegas might have seen that battle before it happened. In one corner was the team everyone expected to be there. The Los Angeles Dodgers opened the year with a payroll of a touch over $187 million, and that was on the heels of spending $200-plus million in each of the previous five seasons. In the other corner was a team that hadn't spent that much in the previous two years combined. According to Cot's Contracts, the Milwaukee Brewers ended the 2016 and '17 seasons 30th in MLB in payroll, and opened this season with a total of just under $91 million on the books. Over the past two years, the Brewers had Opening Day payrolls of just a touch under $164 million -- combined. And the Brewers didn't just roll over, but push the NL's answer to the New York Yankees to the brink of elimination -- a decisive Game 7 at their own home park. Even if you didn't read the title to this piece, it isn't hard to see where we're going here. By comparison, the Minnesota Twins opened the season with a payroll of $128 million and change. They haven't had a payroll finish a season in the top half of MLB since 2012, and only once since the turn of the decade have they been among the game's top-10 spenders. That was in 2011 -- the year they lost 99 games. The 2012 team wasn't much better. People will label you a "Pohlad Pocket Protector" if you say it publicly, but ultimately it comes down to how a team spends rather than what it spends. Last season's AL Wild Card qualifier finished the year 21st in payroll. The team the year before that lost 103 games? They finished 20th. Money really won't be an issue this offseason no matter how someone slices it. The team only has about $30ish million hard committed for next year -- guaranteed money to Addison Reed, Jason Castro and Michael Pineda as well as dead money to Phil Hughes and buyouts of Ervin Santana and Logan Morrison's deals -- and the payroll estimator over on Cot's projects the Opening Day payroll at just a touch under $69 million as things currently stand. That includes the following arbitration figures, in case you want to do some back-of-the-napkin math about who you might non-tender if you were magically granted a seat at the table with Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. For comparison's sake, we'll put the estimates from MLB Trade Rumors in parentheses: Jake Odorizzi - $7.75 million ($9.4 million) Kyle Gibson - $6.75 million ($7.9 million) Robbie Grossman - $3.25 million ($4 million) Eddie Rosario - $3.25 million ($5 million) Miguel Sano - $2.75 million ($3.1 million) Max Kepler - $2.5 million ($3.2 million) Byron Buxton - $2.25 million ($1.2 million) Ehire Adrianza - $1.5 million ($1.8 million) Taylor Rogers - $1.5 million ($1.6 million) Trevor May - $1.25 million ($1.1 million) Add and subtract as you see fit -- for instance, Grossman could be a fairly easy non-tender with Johnny Field, Zack Granite and Jake Cave in the mix -- but this still doesn't put the Twins in any sort of payroll trouble. If the Pohlad family green-lighted an identical payroll from 2018 to 2019, the team has as much as $60 million to spend this offseason in a market that has depth and quality at a wide variety of positions. After a virtually identical team went from in the playoffs to stumbling for 95 percent of the season, how can the team get back on the path to frigid October baseball at Target Field? How about taking a page out of the Brewers' book? It's not exactly a copycat league and each team has different strengths and weaknesses, but here are a handful of ideas the Twins can embrace to push them in the right direction. 1. Don't be afraid to aggressively target improvements -- even in places of strength The Twins obviously like where their future lies in the outfield with Rosario-Buxton-Kepler, and Cave's emergence last season gave them a nice contingency plan as well. The same was true for the Brewers a year ago, when they gave the most playing time in their outfield to Ryan Braun in left, Keon Broxton in center and Domingo Santana in right. Brett Phillips made a cameo and acquitted himself fairly well. Lewis Brinson struggled but was one of the top prospects in the game. Like the Twins, the Brewers were flush with talent and youth in their outfield. So what did they do? They went out and signed Lorenzo Cain and traded for Christian Yelich. They locked down Cain -- once traded with Odorizzi, by the way -- for five years and still have the rights to the likely NL MVP through the 2021 season. If the Brewers exercise Yelich's 2022 option -- which right now seems likely based on the year he had and that he'll be finishing just his age-30 season -- they'll have five years of him for a tidy sum of $58.25 million. That won't even buy you two seasons of Bryce Harper. That's not to say that identifying the next Cain in free agency will be easy, or that his deal is guaranteed to pay dividends over the next four years. He's signed through his age-36 season, so while the early returns are good, it isn't without risk. But who might be a player like this in free agency? Michael Brantley (32) comes to mind, though perhaps the best fit would be A.J. Pollock. He's heading into his age-31 season, and his price tag will be kept down -- at least a little -- by the fact that he's played more than 130 games just twice in his seven-year MLB career. He's a terrific player and a great defender in center, and a nice fall-back plan to Byron Buxton's development -- and beyond that, would theoretically be an incredible corner outfielder defensively. Andrew McCutchen (32) could be a good fit in that respect as well. The days of him being a superstar may be gone, but even the last two years he's been a really nice player while finally seeing his way out of Pittsburgh. This dynamic isn't strictly limited to outfielders, either. Between Jason Castro, Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo, the Twins have a combination that would amount to one heck of a catching clone. But each has question marks. Castro's coming off meniscus surgery, and it isn't the first time he's dealt with the issue. He's a great defender but the bat leaves a bit to be desired. Garver dealt with a concussion down the stretch, and has been more of an offense-first guy -- though that's not to say he hasn't worked hard at improving his defense. And Astudillo is a total wild card in more ways than one. Despite his second iffy October in a row, expect Yasmani Grandal to be a hotly contested commodity this offseason. He's a career .240/.341/.441 hitter, bats from both sides and the defensive metrics love him for his career. He also won't be 30 for a couple more weeks, either. Don't be surprised if he commands a four or five-year deal in the neighborhood of $18-20 million per season, but that's a small price to pay for a transformational catcher behind the plate and at it. The Twins should absolutely be in the discussion as a spot for him to land this offseason. 2. Understand that prospects are nice, but parades are even nicer To get Yelich, the Brewers had to go to a well-stocked cupboard and part with some nice pieces. Brinson was a consensus top-30 prospect prior to last season, and while his early-career MLB numbers are eerily reminiscent to Buxton's, it's way too early to give up on him. He won't turn 25 until a month into next year. Isan Diaz is a middle-infield prospect who has appeared in top-100 lists each of the last two seasons, and at 22 got a look at Triple-A last season -- albeit a bit of an ugly one (.639 OPS). Still, he was four-plus years younger than the average PCL player, so that's not too shabby. Monte Harrison was a top-75 prospect across all platforms and in his age-22 season took a bit of a step back this year in Double-A, hitting .240/.316/.399. Most concerning is that he fanned 215 times in 136 games (583 PA), but he was still nearly a 20-20 guy (19 homers, 28 steals) along the way. The physical tools are tremendous. The final piece was starter Jordan Yamamoto, a 22-year-old righty who doesn't project as a top-of-the-rotation guy despite eye-popping numbers in the minors this season. Across three levels, Yamamoto posted a 1.83 ERA, 11.1 K/9, a 0.83 WHIP and just 1.8 BB/9. He'll be 23 in May and could be pitching in the big leagues by then. None of this is to say the Twins should make Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff available or that another Yelich will be on the market this winter -- though Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto will almost certainly be dealt with two years of control left at reasonable rates -- but the overarching theme here is that creativity will rule the day.- 2 comments
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Swings dictate the outcome of virtually every game. That was no exception when the Kansas City Royals beat the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Target Field to take a 2-1 series victory and again move onto the brink of .500 for the season at 67-68. However, in this case, it was two swings in the same plate appearance that sent the Twins to defeat — their 65th of the season — and, at the close of business Sunday, prevented them from expanding their 1.5-game lead on the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles for the second Wild Card spot. The Twins took a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the fifth, handed it back with two runs in the top of the sixth and again took it back with two runs in their half of the inning. With two outs, a 1-2 count and his team clinging to a 4-3 lead, reliever Alan Busenitz delivered a breaking ball well out of the strike zone to Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain. We can be sure he didn’t take a full swing, but all hell broke loose when home plate umpire Marty Foster appealed to first base umpire Mike Muchlinski, who ruled Cain didn’t even take a half-swing. Twins manager Paul Molitor immediately sprang to the top step of the dugout, and began gesturing demonstrably toward Foster, who threw the skipper out with the fuse of a discount firecracker. Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this article in full.
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Article: AL Central Marked By Mediocrity
Cody Christie posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
April has come and gone. With the calendar flipping to May, there have been plenty of story-lines to follow across the baseball world. Bryce Harper seems to have found his swing again. Aaron Judge is making himself known as a Bronx Bomber. Even Eric Thames is having a resurgence in Milwaukee. Teams in the AL Central have been making headlines of their own. The four top teams are separated by two games. Meanwhile, the Royals are the lone team with an under .500 record. What's been going well for each AL Central squad? What needs to improve in the coming months? Let's dive in.Cleveland Indians (April Record 14-10) What's Gone Right Following their World Series run, the Indians might have come out of the gate a little slower than they would like. Francisco Lindor is continuing his strong performance from last year's postseason. He leads all shortstops in home runs, slugging percentage and WAR. Jose Ramirez is also proving he can hold his own. Through April, he hitting .330/.388/.593 with six home runs, the second highest total on the team. Cleveland's pitching staff continues to be one of it's strengths. Indians pitchers have compiled the highest WAR total in all of baseball. Both their starters and relievers rank in the top six in WAR. Their 9.97 K/9 ranks as the best in baseball while their 2.79 BB/9 is the second lowest mark. Cleveland's strong pitching helped the club to sweep three-game series from the Twins and Rangers during the season's first month. Room For Improvement Edwin Encarnacion was the team's big free agent acquisition and he has't exactly gotten off to a hot start. Through April's action, he was hitting .200/343/.353 with one home run. Those averages are all below his career production. Jason Kipnis has been limited to nine games and his production has suffered when he's been on the field. Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer have both struggled at the back of the Indians rotation. Tomlin has posted an 8.87 ERA, the club's worst mark, while averaging less than five innings per start. Bauer's ERA is slightly better at 6.26 and he's been close to six innings per appearance. Cleveland was only swept by one team in April, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and both Tomlin and Bauer made starts in that series. Chicago White Sox (April Record 13-10) What's Gone Right The White Sox were supposed to be in the midst of a rebuild but they find themselves a half game out of first place after the season's first month. Avisail Garcia is batting .368/.409/.621 and he leads the team with 10 extra-base hits. Matt Davidson joins Garcia in the .600 slugging percentage club and he's also been getting on base over 33% of the time. Miguel Gonzalez and Derek Holland have been quiet surprises in the White Sox rotation. Gonzalez leads the team with three wins and he's posted a 3.27 ERA with 21 strikeouts. Holland's ERA is better at 2.17 and he's second on the team in strikeouts. Even former Twins Anthony Swarzak has been good out of the bullpen as he has yet to allow a run in over 12 innings. Improvement Areas Veterans on the team like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera haven't started strong. Frazier is hitting under .185 while getting on base less than 29% of the time. Cabrera's .260 average is 25 points lower than his career mark. His .668 SLG would also be his lowest total since the 2014 campaign. Jose Quintana, the team's best starter a year ago, has struggled out of the gate. His ERA is north of 5.00 for April and his WHIP is over 1.46. James Shields was brought in as a veteran starter and he has been limited to three starts while currently being on the 10-day DL. Former Twin Mike Pelfrey has made a pair of starts so you know you're in desperation mode when you turn to Big Pelf. Detroit Tigers (April Record 12-12) What's Gone Right The Tigers took advantage of six games with the Twins as 25% of their victories have come against Minnesota. Justin Upton has provided the most value to the Tigers as he has gotten on base over 40% of the time while compiling a .968 OPS. Both of those totals, if sustained, would be career-best marks. Ian Kinsler and Alex Avial have also had good starts to the year. Detroit's pitching has been a mixture of good and bad. Michael Fulmer has put together the most consistent starts as he has a staff leading 3.19 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 31 innings. Justin Wilson and Shane Green have also limited damage out of the bullpen. Improvement Areas Former Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera has been limited to five extra-base hits and a .268 average. He currently is on the 10-day DL. Veteran slugger Victor Martinez has been limited in his time at DH. He has combined to hit .218/.281/.276 with only three extra-base hits in over 96 plate appearances. Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann are supposed to be the anchors of this starting staff. Verlander, the 2016 runner-up for Cy Young, has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Zimmermann has a 1.62 WHIP and and ERA of over 6.00. Francisco Rodriguez has also struggled as the closer as he has allowed 14 hits (3 home runs) and six earned runs in less than 10 innings. Kansas City Royals (7-16) What's Gone Right Not much has gone right for the 2016 World Series champions. Lorenzo Cain leads the team in WAR and over half of his value comes on the defensive side of the ball. Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas have combined for 13 home runs with each having OPS over .835. Other than that, there hasn't been much to write home about. The Royals top three starters (Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Vargas) all have ERA totals under 3.00. Kennedy and Vargas have a WHIP under 1.00. Because of the strong start by the Royals starters, the club ranks first in the AL for WAR from their starting staff. Kansas City's lone sweep in the first month came in a three-game homestand versus the Angels. Improvement Areas Positive signs on the offensive side of the ball have been few and far between. The Royals rank at the bottom of the AL in many offensive categories. Their .210 batting average is 10 points lower than any team in the league. Slugging percentage doesn't rank them any better as they are in last by 14 points. While the front end of the rotation has been strong, the bullpen has been a weakness for Kansas City. The team's relief core has the third worst ERA in the AL while posting a negative WAR total. Relief pitchers Matt Strahm and Travis Wood both have ERA marks north of 11.50. Nate Karns and Jason Hammel have also struggled in the back end of the rotation. A lot of pitching help will be needed to turn things around in KC. What will May entail for the AL Central? Will anyone be able to separate themselves from the pack? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article- 20 replies
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Cleveland Indians (April Record 14-10) What's Gone Right Following their World Series run, the Indians might have come out of the gate a little slower than they would like. Francisco Lindor is continuing his strong performance from last year's postseason. He leads all shortstops in home runs, slugging percentage and WAR. Jose Ramirez is also proving he can hold his own. Through April, he hitting .330/.388/.593 with six home runs, the second highest total on the team. Cleveland's pitching staff continues to be one of it's strengths. Indians pitchers have compiled the highest WAR total in all of baseball. Both their starters and relievers rank in the top six in WAR. Their 9.97 K/9 ranks as the best in baseball while their 2.79 BB/9 is the second lowest mark. Cleveland's strong pitching helped the club to sweep three-game series from the Twins and Rangers during the season's first month. Room For Improvement Edwin Encarnacion was the team's big free agent acquisition and he has't exactly gotten off to a hot start. Through April's action, he was hitting .200/343/.353 with one home run. Those averages are all below his career production. Jason Kipnis has been limited to nine games and his production has suffered when he's been on the field. Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer have both struggled at the back of the Indians rotation. Tomlin has posted an 8.87 ERA, the club's worst mark, while averaging less than five innings per start. Bauer's ERA is slightly better at 6.26 and he's been close to six innings per appearance. Cleveland was only swept by one team in April, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and both Tomlin and Bauer made starts in that series. Chicago White Sox (April Record 13-10) What's Gone Right The White Sox were supposed to be in the midst of a rebuild but they find themselves a half game out of first place after the season's first month. Avisail Garcia is batting .368/.409/.621 and he leads the team with 10 extra-base hits. Matt Davidson joins Garcia in the .600 slugging percentage club and he's also been getting on base over 33% of the time. Miguel Gonzalez and Derek Holland have been quiet surprises in the White Sox rotation. Gonzalez leads the team with three wins and he's posted a 3.27 ERA with 21 strikeouts. Holland's ERA is better at 2.17 and he's second on the team in strikeouts. Even former Twins Anthony Swarzak has been good out of the bullpen as he has yet to allow a run in over 12 innings. Improvement Areas Veterans on the team like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera haven't started strong. Frazier is hitting under .185 while getting on base less than 29% of the time. Cabrera's .260 average is 25 points lower than his career mark. His .668 SLG would also be his lowest total since the 2014 campaign. Jose Quintana, the team's best starter a year ago, has struggled out of the gate. His ERA is north of 5.00 for April and his WHIP is over 1.46. James Shields was brought in as a veteran starter and he has been limited to three starts while currently being on the 10-day DL. Former Twin Mike Pelfrey has made a pair of starts so you know you're in desperation mode when you turn to Big Pelf. Detroit Tigers (April Record 12-12) What's Gone Right The Tigers took advantage of six games with the Twins as 25% of their victories have come against Minnesota. Justin Upton has provided the most value to the Tigers as he has gotten on base over 40% of the time while compiling a .968 OPS. Both of those totals, if sustained, would be career-best marks. Ian Kinsler and Alex Avial have also had good starts to the year. Detroit's pitching has been a mixture of good and bad. Michael Fulmer has put together the most consistent starts as he has a staff leading 3.19 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 31 innings. Justin Wilson and Shane Green have also limited damage out of the bullpen. Improvement Areas Former Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera has been limited to five extra-base hits and a .268 average. He currently is on the 10-day DL. Veteran slugger Victor Martinez has been limited in his time at DH. He has combined to hit .218/.281/.276 with only three extra-base hits in over 96 plate appearances. Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann are supposed to be the anchors of this starting staff. Verlander, the 2016 runner-up for Cy Young, has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Zimmermann has a 1.62 WHIP and and ERA of over 6.00. Francisco Rodriguez has also struggled as the closer as he has allowed 14 hits (3 home runs) and six earned runs in less than 10 innings. Kansas City Royals (7-16) What's Gone Right Not much has gone right for the 2016 World Series champions. Lorenzo Cain leads the team in WAR and over half of his value comes on the defensive side of the ball. Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas have combined for 13 home runs with each having OPS over .835. Other than that, there hasn't been much to write home about. The Royals top three starters (Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Vargas) all have ERA totals under 3.00. Kennedy and Vargas have a WHIP under 1.00. Because of the strong start by the Royals starters, the club ranks first in the AL for WAR from their starting staff. Kansas City's lone sweep in the first month came in a three-game homestand versus the Angels. Improvement Areas Positive signs on the offensive side of the ball have been few and far between. The Royals rank at the bottom of the AL in many offensive categories. Their .210 batting average is 10 points lower than any team in the league. Slugging percentage doesn't rank them any better as they are in last by 14 points. While the front end of the rotation has been strong, the bullpen has been a weakness for Kansas City. The team's relief core has the third worst ERA in the AL while posting a negative WAR total. Relief pitchers Matt Strahm and Travis Wood both have ERA marks north of 11.50. Nate Karns and Jason Hammel have also struggled in the back end of the rotation. A lot of pitching help will be needed to turn things around in KC. What will May entail for the AL Central? Will anyone be able to separate themselves from the pack? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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MINNESOTA TWINS – JORDAN SCHAFER Once a top prospect in all of baseball, Jordan Schafer has been through some personal demons. However, he got another chance with the Braves in 2013 and became a solid fourth outfielder. He began 2014 with the Braves. However, through the midway point in the season, he had just 93 plate appearances in 63 games played. He was basically just a late-innings defensive replacement and pinch runner. It would be difficult for anyone to put up decent numbers with that infrequent playing time. The Braves designated Schafer for assignment. The Twins had just traded outfielder Sam Fuld at the trade deadline and wanted another outfielder. Schafer fits the Sam Fuld mold, probably a fourth outfielder, but capable of starting for a period of time too. In the season’s final two months, he played most every day. In 41 games (and 147 plate appearances), he hit .285/.345/.362 (.707) with 30 stolen bases. Did playing every day allow him to play well, or should we only note that in his 1,398 total big league plate appearances, he has a .229/.311/.310 (.621) slash line? The reality is that it’s probably somewhere in the middle. Schafer is a different person, more mature and more experienced at age 28 than when he first came to the big leagues. What he did as a 23- or 24- or 25- year-old isn’t necessarily what he is today. And yes, playing every day should be better for him (or most anyone) than playing in one of two games and maybe getting four or five plate appearances each week. Our Twins Daily writers make their predictions: Seth – .268/.324/.351 (.675) with 16 doubles and 4 HR. Nick – .250/.315/.340 (.655) with 15 doubles and 3 HR. Parker – .260/.330/.350 (.690) with 10 doubles and 1 HR John – .250/.330/.340 (.690) with 18 doubles and 2 HR (and 30+ SB). AL CENTRAL CENTER FIELDERS Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics Chicago – Adam Eaton – 26 - .300/.362/.401 (.763) with 26 doubles, 1-HR Cleveland – Michael Bourn – 32 - .257/.314/.360 (.674) with 17 doubles, 3-HR Detroit – Anthony Gose – 24 - .226/.311/.293 (.604) with 8 doubles, 2-HR Kansas City – Lorenzo Cain – 29 - .301/.339/.412 (.751) with 29 doubles, 5-HR AL CENTRAL CENTER FIELD RANKINGS #1 – Adam Eaton - Chicago #2 – Lorenzo Cain – Kansas City #3 – Michael Bourn – Cleveland #4 – Jordan Schafer – Minnesota #5 – Anthony Gose – Detroit NOW IT’S YOUR TURN Give it a little thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Jordan in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central center fielders? Then discuss your thoughts with the rest of the Twins Daily community on the Twins center field position. How will it play out throughout the season? Check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS AND RANKINGS Kurt Suzuki Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Danny Santana Oswaldo Arcia
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The Kansas City Royals are going to the World Series. The AL Central team that was seemingly in a perennial rebuild suddenly has put itself in a great position. They won the 1985 World Series and this is the first time since then that they've been back in the playoffs. They have now gone 8-0 this postseason and will represent the American League in the World Series. The Twins have had a run of four-straight 90-loss seasons, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Royals roster and see how their players were acquired. Are there similarities between the Twins and the Royals?THE CORE I always write and talk about how important it is for the Twins to develop their core and then supplement it with free agents or through trades to find final pieces. Both the 1987 and 1991 World Series championship Minnesota Twins teams had strong cores. Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek and Greg Gagne were part of both cores. The 1987 team included Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti and Frank Viola who were on the team when they were losing a lot of games. Dan Gladden, Juan Berenguer and Jeff Reardon were added. Gladden became part of the core of the 1991 team. At the core of the Royals roster have been four first-round picks. Billy Butler was the 14th overall pick in the 2004 draft. Alex Gordon was the #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft. Mike Moustakas was the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, and Eric Hosmer was the #3 pick in the 2008 draft. All four of these players have certainly had their ups and downs in their big league career. Fans complain about the lack of power shown by Butler and Hosmer. Alex Gordon struggled early in his career and switched positions. Mike Moustakas has struggled with the bat, and in fact, he was sent down to AAA this year because he was playing so poorly. Other guys whom they have drafted and developed are around the roster. Closer Greg Holland was the team’s 10th round pick in 2007. Lefty Danny Duffy was their third round pick in 2008. Jarrod Dyson was the team’s 50th round pick in 2006. Yes, I meant to type 50th. In addition, the Royals signed some of their new, expanded core as international free agents. Flamethrower Yordano Ventura was signed from the Dominican Republic in 2008. Fellow triple-digit tosser Kelvin Herrera signed in 2006. Salvador Perez, who is one of the best catchers in baseball offensively and defensively, signed out of Venezuela in 2006. In addition, reliever Brandon Finnegan became the first person, ever, to play in the College World Series and the Major League World Series in the same year. The lefty pitched for TCU this spring, was selected with the 17th overall pick in June, and was up in September. He played a huge role in the Division Series. TRADES The Royals then made a few trades that have had a huge effect on their roster, and on this year’s results. There were a couple of completely opposite trades. When the Royals were struggling and had a terrific starting pitcher in Zach Greinke, they were able to trade him to Milwaukee. The Brewers sent to Kansas City Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and the ALCS MVP Lorenzo Cain in that deal. Odorizzi was on the other end of a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays two years ago. Instead of acquiring prospects, the Royals traded one of baseball’s top prospects, Wil Myers, along with Odorizzi and more in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. Shields had become an ace for the Rays and pitched in the playoffs and the World Series. Davis was a soft-throwing starter who was being moved to the bullpen. The Royals gave him a shot to start last year, but he became arguably baseball’s most dominant reliever in 2014. In addition, the Royals traded soft-tossing lefty reliever Will Smith to the Brewers last offseason for outfield Nori Aoki. They acquired reliever Jason Frasor at the trade deadline for a minor leaguer. They also got Josh Willingham from the Twins in mid-August. FREE AGENCY With that core having gained some experience and the Royals starting to show signs of life, they supplemented their team with some free agent signings. In July of 2012, the Royals traded lefty Jonathan Sanchez to the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie. Both pitchers had struggled immensely and maybe a change of scenery would help. Well, Guthrie pitched well down the stretch in 2012 and turned it into a three year deal worth $25.2 million deal with the Royals. Though he has been about league average in those 2 1/2 years, he has worked a combined 505.1 regular-season innings for the Royals. After letting Ervin Santana go elsewhere after the 2013 season, the Royals signed very soft-tossing left-hander Jason Vargas to a four-year, $32 million contract. The move was widely criticized at the time, but Vargas has pitched well in the first year. After trotting out guys like Johnny Giavotella and Chris Getz at second base in recent years, the Royals gave Omar Infante a four year, $30.25 million contract to be their second baseman. Granted, the 32-year-old hit just .252/.295/.337 (.632), but he has 13 years of big league experience which likely helped the club in some way. After getting released by the Angels in June, veteran Raul Ibanez signed with the Royals. He hit just .188 with six extra base hits in 90 plate appearances. Consider this: Had the Twins gone out and signed free agents like Guthrie, Vargas and Infante, would those moves have excited the Twins fan base? Do they scream "OK, now, we're heading to the World Series?" SUMMARY The Royals have a fairly young core of talent that should allow them to make a run for a few years. In their regular lineup, Omar Infante is the only hitter over the age of 30. Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer are still under 25 while Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakus are all 28 or less. Yordano Ventura is 23, and Danny Duffy is 25. Meanwhile, James Shields becomes a free agent at the end of the year and the 32-year-old could bolt for big money. Jeremy Guthrie is 35 and Jason Vargas is 32. They’ll need to develop a couple more pitchers and possibly sign one or two to replace Shields. The bullpen is full of hard throwers, and they are quite young. The forgotten name might be 2009 first-round pick Aaron Crow who was very good the last couple of years before struggling a little bit in 2014. A reminder of the Royals first round picks in the last decade: · 2004 (14) – Billy Butler – High School · 2005 (2) – Alex Gordon – College – Nebraska · 2006 (1) – Luke Hochevar – College – Tennessee · 2007 (2) – Mike Moustakas – High School · 2008 (3) – Eric Hosmer – High School · 2009 (12) – Aaron Crow – College – Missouri · 2010 (4) – Christian Colon – College – Cal State Fullerton · 2011 (5) – Bubba Starling – High School · 2012 (5) – Kyle Zimmer – College – San Francisco · 2013 (8) – Hunter Dozier – College – Stephen F. Austin · 2013 (34) – Sean Manaea – College – Indiana State · 2014 (18) – Brandon Finnegan – College – TCU The Royals have had a boatload of very high draft picks and for the most part, they have made good on them. Hochevar was moved to the bullpen in 2013 and posted an ERA south of two. He had Tommy John surgery this spring. Colon made his MLB debut in 2014. Starling, Zimmer and Dozier are all participating in the Arizona Fall League. HOW DO THE TWINS COMPARE? Are the Twins doing any of the things that have made the Royals successful this year? The draft has been a struggle in the last decade, though they have had their successes as well: · 2004 – Trevor Plouffe (20), Glen Perkins (22) · 2005 – Matt Garza (25) · 2006 – Chris Parmelee (20) · 2007 – Ben Revere (28) · 2008 – Aaron Hicks (14) · 2009 – Kyle Gibson (22) · 2010 – Alex Wimmers (21) · 2011 – Levi Michael (30) · 2012 – Byron Buxton (2), Jose Berrios (32) · 2013 – Kohl Stewart (4) · 2014 – Nick Gordon (5) While the Royals were accumulating high first-round picks for a decade, the Twins were competing (and often winning) division titles. Only in the last three drafts (and the 2015 draft) have the Twins had high picks. It will be important for the Twins long-term success to have those guys hit. The Twins now have Kyle Gibson and Trevor May as young starters in their rotation. They have added free agents Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes last year. Hughes out-pitched all but a handful of starters in the American League in 2014 while Nolasco showed how hard free agent pitchers can be to judge with a rough first season. Obviously, for the Twins to compete in 2015 and 2016, Nolasco will have to return to at least mediocrity. The team also continues to have hope for Alex Meyer, hoping he can become a top-of-the-rotation starter. So will they add another high-priced free agent starter to the mix as the Royals have in recent years? The Royals bullpen is among the best in baseball, and they are a huge reason why the Royals have yet to lose a game in the playoffs. They are able to bring in hard-thrower after hard-thrower to dominate. They drafted Finnegan with the 17th overall pick this year. The Twins drafted Nick Burdi with the 46th overall pick and he has thrown a legitimate 102 mph fastball with a 90+ mph slider. Third round pick Michael Cederoth will get a chance to start, but he was clocked at 100 in college this year. Fifth round pick Jake Reed hit 98, and according to Jason Kanzler (in a Twins Hangouts interview on Tuesday night) he has just filthy movement on his pitches. He’s pitching in the AFL now, too. The Twins have about 10 guys in the system who reach 98 or better on their fastballs including Meyer, Zack Jones, JT Chagois and more. Each of these guys has a realistic chance to debut with the Twins in 2015. Joe Mauer was part of the core in the last decade and will be a big part of the team’s success the next few years. However, the core for the next winning team starts with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Hosmer and Moustakas were both among Baseball America’s top 10 prospects prior to the 2011 season. Buxton and Sano were both in BA's top 10 prospects list prior to this season. Though both missed significant time in 2014, they remain among baseball’s elite prospects. Beyond them, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario are guys who could come up in the next year or two and compete. JO Berrios took a huge step forward in 2014 as a prospect. It's certainly far to early to know how Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon will fare over time, but both had good showings in 2014. Oswaldo Arcia made strides and continued to hit for big power as a 23-year-old in 2014. Danny Santana put up Rookie of the Year numbers this year, though White Sox 27-year-old Jose Abreu will win that award unanimously. Kennys Vargas showed great power in his surprise debut. Brian Dozier (eighth round, 2010) won’t turn 28 until mid-May. Trevor Plouffe will be 28 through the first half of 2015. The Twins need Aaron Hicks to step up in 2015 as well, but the Twins offense was actually pretty good in 2014. Free agent Kurt Suzuki played a role in that. Another trait of the Twins strong teams has been defense. The Royals defense all around the diamond has been incredible. There are web gems, yes, but there is also great positioning. This is an area where the Twins have fallen flat, squished, you could say. The Twins defense is dreadful, and in order to help their pitching staff save some runs, it will also have to be a focus. The Twins aren’t just suddenly going to compete in 2015 unless a lot of things go really well. However, it’s clear what the Twins are building. The next core of hitters and pitchers is just starting to arrive and will continue to do so over the next two years. They will have to take their lumps, no question, just like the Royals core did over the last several years. But there are certainly pieces in place for the Twins to contend within the next couple of seasons, and hopefully for an extended period of time again. As the Royals have shown this year, it’s about getting to the playoffs and peaking. They certainly aren’t the best team in baseball. They probably aren’t the best team in the American League. Frankly, they weren’t the best team in the American League Central Division this year. However, they have the right pieces in place, in the lineup, on defense and in that bullpen. And right now, Lady Luck is shining on the Royals and they are playing great. Hopefully it will continue through the World Series. Click here to view the article
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THE CORE I always write and talk about how important it is for the Twins to develop their core and then supplement it with free agents or through trades to find final pieces. Both the 1987 and 1991 World Series championship Minnesota Twins teams had strong cores. Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek and Greg Gagne were part of both cores. The 1987 team included Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti and Frank Viola who were on the team when they were losing a lot of games. Dan Gladden, Juan Berenguer and Jeff Reardon were added. Gladden became part of the core of the 1991 team. At the core of the Royals roster have been four first-round picks. Billy Butler was the 14th overall pick in the 2004 draft. Alex Gordon was the #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft. Mike Moustakas was the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, and Eric Hosmer was the #3 pick in the 2008 draft. All four of these players have certainly had their ups and downs in their big league career. Fans complain about the lack of power shown by Butler and Hosmer. Alex Gordon struggled early in his career and switched positions. Mike Moustakas has struggled with the bat, and in fact, he was sent down to AAA this year because he was playing so poorly. Other guys whom they have drafted and developed are around the roster. Closer Greg Holland was the team’s 10th round pick in 2007. Lefty Danny Duffy was their third round pick in 2008. Jarrod Dyson was the team’s 50th round pick in 2006. Yes, I meant to type 50th. In addition, the Royals signed some of their new, expanded core as international free agents. Flamethrower Yordano Ventura was signed from the Dominican Republic in 2008. Fellow triple-digit tosser Kelvin Herrera signed in 2006. Salvador Perez, who is one of the best catchers in baseball offensively and defensively, signed out of Venezuela in 2006. In addition, reliever Brandon Finnegan became the first person, ever, to play in the College World Series and the Major League World Series in the same year. The lefty pitched for TCU this spring, was selected with the 17th overall pick in June, and was up in September. He played a huge role in the Division Series. TRADES The Royals then made a few trades that have had a huge effect on their roster, and on this year’s results. There were a couple of completely opposite trades. When the Royals were struggling and had a terrific starting pitcher in Zach Greinke, they were able to trade him to Milwaukee. The Brewers sent to Kansas City Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and the ALCS MVP Lorenzo Cain in that deal. Odorizzi was on the other end of a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays two years ago. Instead of acquiring prospects, the Royals traded one of baseball’s top prospects, Wil Myers, along with Odorizzi and more in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. Shields had become an ace for the Rays and pitched in the playoffs and the World Series. Davis was a soft-throwing starter who was being moved to the bullpen. The Royals gave him a shot to start last year, but he became arguably baseball’s most dominant reliever in 2014. In addition, the Royals traded soft-tossing lefty reliever Will Smith to the Brewers last offseason for outfield Nori Aoki. They acquired reliever Jason Frasor at the trade deadline for a minor leaguer. They also got Josh Willingham from the Twins in mid-August. FREE AGENCY With that core having gained some experience and the Royals starting to show signs of life, they supplemented their team with some free agent signings. In July of 2012, the Royals traded lefty Jonathan Sanchez to the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie. Both pitchers had struggled immensely and maybe a change of scenery would help. Well, Guthrie pitched well down the stretch in 2012 and turned it into a three year deal worth $25.2 million deal with the Royals. Though he has been about league average in those 2 1/2 years, he has worked a combined 505.1 regular-season innings for the Royals. After letting Ervin Santana go elsewhere after the 2013 season, the Royals signed very soft-tossing left-hander Jason Vargas to a four-year, $32 million contract. The move was widely criticized at the time, but Vargas has pitched well in the first year. After trotting out guys like Johnny Giavotella and Chris Getz at second base in recent years, the Royals gave Omar Infante a four year, $30.25 million contract to be their second baseman. Granted, the 32-year-old hit just .252/.295/.337 (.632), but he has 13 years of big league experience which likely helped the club in some way. After getting released by the Angels in June, veteran Raul Ibanez signed with the Royals. He hit just .188 with six extra base hits in 90 plate appearances. Consider this: Had the Twins gone out and signed free agents like Guthrie, Vargas and Infante, would those moves have excited the Twins fan base? Do they scream "OK, now, we're heading to the World Series?" SUMMARY The Royals have a fairly young core of talent that should allow them to make a run for a few years. In their regular lineup, Omar Infante is the only hitter over the age of 30. Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer are still under 25 while Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakus are all 28 or less. Yordano Ventura is 23, and Danny Duffy is 25. Meanwhile, James Shields becomes a free agent at the end of the year and the 32-year-old could bolt for big money. Jeremy Guthrie is 35 and Jason Vargas is 32. They’ll need to develop a couple more pitchers and possibly sign one or two to replace Shields. The bullpen is full of hard throwers, and they are quite young. The forgotten name might be 2009 first-round pick Aaron Crow who was very good the last couple of years before struggling a little bit in 2014. A reminder of the Royals first round picks in the last decade: · 2004 (14) – Billy Butler – High School · 2005 (2) – Alex Gordon – College – Nebraska · 2006 (1) – Luke Hochevar – College – Tennessee · 2007 (2) – Mike Moustakas – High School · 2008 (3) – Eric Hosmer – High School · 2009 (12) – Aaron Crow – College – Missouri · 2010 (4) – Christian Colon – College – Cal State Fullerton · 2011 (5) – Bubba Starling – High School · 2012 (5) – Kyle Zimmer – College – San Francisco · 2013 (8) – Hunter Dozier – College – Stephen F. Austin · 2013 (34) – Sean Manaea – College – Indiana State · 2014 (18) – Brandon Finnegan – College – TCU The Royals have had a boatload of very high draft picks and for the most part, they have made good on them. Hochevar was moved to the bullpen in 2013 and posted an ERA south of two. He had Tommy John surgery this spring. Colon made his MLB debut in 2014. Starling, Zimmer and Dozier are all participating in the Arizona Fall League. HOW DO THE TWINS COMPARE? Are the Twins doing any of the things that have made the Royals successful this year? The draft has been a struggle in the last decade, though they have had their successes as well: · 2004 – Trevor Plouffe (20), Glen Perkins (22) · 2005 – Matt Garza (25) · 2006 – Chris Parmelee (20) · 2007 – Ben Revere (28) · 2008 – Aaron Hicks (14) · 2009 – Kyle Gibson (22) · 2010 – Alex Wimmers (21) · 2011 – Levi Michael (30) · 2012 – Byron Buxton (2), Jose Berrios (32) · 2013 – Kohl Stewart (4) · 2014 – Nick Gordon (5) While the Royals were accumulating high first-round picks for a decade, the Twins were competing (and often winning) division titles. Only in the last three drafts (and the 2015 draft) have the Twins had high picks. It will be important for the Twins long-term success to have those guys hit. The Twins now have Kyle Gibson and Trevor May as young starters in their rotation. They have added free agents Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes last year. Hughes out-pitched all but a handful of starters in the American League in 2014 while Nolasco showed how hard free agent pitchers can be to judge with a rough first season. Obviously, for the Twins to compete in 2015 and 2016, Nolasco will have to return to at least mediocrity. The team also continues to have hope for Alex Meyer, hoping he can become a top-of-the-rotation starter. So will they add another high-priced free agent starter to the mix as the Royals have in recent years? The Royals bullpen is among the best in baseball, and they are a huge reason why the Royals have yet to lose a game in the playoffs. They are able to bring in hard-thrower after hard-thrower to dominate. They drafted Finnegan with the 17th overall pick this year. The Twins drafted Nick Burdi with the 46th overall pick and he has thrown a legitimate 102 mph fastball with a 90+ mph slider. Third round pick Michael Cederoth will get a chance to start, but he was clocked at 100 in college this year. Fifth round pick Jake Reed hit 98, and according to Jason Kanzler (in a Twins Hangouts interview on Tuesday night) he has just filthy movement on his pitches. He’s pitching in the AFL now, too. The Twins have about 10 guys in the system who reach 98 or better on their fastballs including Meyer, Zack Jones, JT Chagois and more. Each of these guys has a realistic chance to debut with the Twins in 2015. Joe Mauer was part of the core in the last decade and will be a big part of the team’s success the next few years. However, the core for the next winning team starts with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Hosmer and Moustakas were both among Baseball America’s top 10 prospects prior to the 2011 season. Buxton and Sano were both in BA's top 10 prospects list prior to this season. Though both missed significant time in 2014, they remain among baseball’s elite prospects. Beyond them, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario are guys who could come up in the next year or two and compete. JO Berrios took a huge step forward in 2014 as a prospect. It's certainly far to early to know how Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon will fare over time, but both had good showings in 2014. Oswaldo Arcia made strides and continued to hit for big power as a 23-year-old in 2014. Danny Santana put up Rookie of the Year numbers this year, though White Sox 27-year-old Jose Abreu will win that award unanimously. Kennys Vargas showed great power in his surprise debut. Brian Dozier (eighth round, 2010) won’t turn 28 until mid-May. Trevor Plouffe will be 28 through the first half of 2015. The Twins need Aaron Hicks to step up in 2015 as well, but the Twins offense was actually pretty good in 2014. Free agent Kurt Suzuki played a role in that. Another trait of the Twins strong teams has been defense. The Royals defense all around the diamond has been incredible. There are web gems, yes, but there is also great positioning. This is an area where the Twins have fallen flat, squished, you could say. The Twins defense is dreadful, and in order to help their pitching staff save some runs, it will also have to be a focus. The Twins aren’t just suddenly going to compete in 2015 unless a lot of things go really well. However, it’s clear what the Twins are building. The next core of hitters and pitchers is just starting to arrive and will continue to do so over the next two years. They will have to take their lumps, no question, just like the Royals core did over the last several years. But there are certainly pieces in place for the Twins to contend within the next couple of seasons, and hopefully for an extended period of time again. As the Royals have shown this year, it’s about getting to the playoffs and peaking. They certainly aren’t the best team in baseball. They probably aren’t the best team in the American League. Frankly, they weren’t the best team in the American League Central Division this year. However, they have the right pieces in place, in the lineup, on defense and in that bullpen. And right now, Lady Luck is shining on the Royals and they are playing great. Hopefully it will continue through the World Series.
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- alex gordon
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