Search the Community

I was caught up in Dave Schoenfield's article about which teams have the best chance to return to the playoffs from those who were there last year. When I got to the section on the Indians, it read more like an article on the Twins.http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25870218/which-2018-playoff-team-most-likely-miss-year Schoenfield said, "Maybe the most frustrating comment from a front-office executive this offseason came over the weekend from Minnesota Twins general manager Thad Levine at the team's TwinsFest. Asked about Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, Levine answered: "My view ... for doing it is the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide-open. Not when you've got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat." So, don't sign a star ... unless you're already expected to win the division? Not that Machado and Harper want to sign with the Twins, but no team could benefit from adding a player of that magnitude more than the Twins, who are trying to chase down Cleveland. The Twins have some strong rebound candidates, and the other three teams in the division are bad. Minnesota did add Nelson Cruz and Jonathan Schoop, but imagine Machado or Harper anchoring its lineup." So when do you add a great player? My thought is that you add them when they are available. Do you see any 26 year old stars lining up for next years free agency? As the article states, they might not want to sign with the Twins, but among agents and Free Agents, I think our position is pretty obvious and not very inviting. I still see last years Darvish sweep stakes as more of a show than a real effort (and we are lucky that is all it was). Puckett's Pond rates Brian Harper the best we have ever done. https://puckettspond.com/2011/11/03/best-twins-free-agents-ever/ Twinkie Town gives a depressing recap of Free Agents and Trades https://www.twinkietown.com/2016/7/6/12101434/where-the-twins-have-gone-wrong-a-history Rett Bollinger says Molitor was the best Free Agent signing we have ever made; https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/paul-molitor-is-twins-best-free-agent-signing/c-214194398 I remember when Shannon Sharpe was traded for and made a big difference, when we brought in Chili Davis, and Torrii Hunter to push the other players. Maybe that is what we are doing with Cruz. But the real question is - would you sign Harper or Machado if they were willing to come here? Or would you tell them to hang out for a year or two until we are a better team?

As has been stated before there was a long thread on how the Bryon Buxton September callup was handled. This is to be a different look with regards to damage to the long term franchise. 1. Case 1 Texas and Profar. Texas did a service time saving manipulation of Profar's time. This worked out very badly for Texas. (Side note Profar's agent is Boras so not all of this may be relevant). The long term result was that went after 2017 or 2018 when Texas tried to get an extension with Profar, the Texas front office was told not to bother without paying market rate or above market rate (my guess based on what happened here). This led to the trade of Profar to the A's for not what I would consider a market rate deal for Texas. Profar is in the same category as Buxton as he was rated in the top 5 prospect list for 2 years running at one time. Without the extension given Texas's time line they were forced to take what they could get (given Profar would be a free agent before Texas became relevant again). How does this affect Buxton? The Twins do not look as if they are actively planning to compete without a bit of the luck factor in 2019. There are two possible outcomes here: Buxton plays OK this year breaks out next year and hits his maximum trade value about the time the Twins expect to become relevant (2020 - 2024). Twins are then faced with the issue of (do you trade a potential superstar when you are ready to compete or do you hold on to compete and lose Buxton in 2 years for a compensation draft pick). Then there is the issue of the FO talking about sustainability. That would mean looking at trading Buxton at this time when the best Twins talent is years is arriving and creating issues in the clubhouse and ongoing for the Twins keeping players who could be the face of the franchise. Kyle Gibson (the union rep), has already weighed in by commenting he thought Buxton should have been brought up. This leads to 2 more issues: 1. Having problems with keeping players who are getting good or watching them walk after 6 years. Or being forced to trade them (issue with this is you are dealing with other GM's who on the free spending teams will give you a number of their lessor 4 - 15 type prospects, but put there top prospects off limits in deals like this). This rational being that in 1 - 2 years they could sign them without giving up prospects. 2. Team reputation: Unless you pay more money than anyone else will offer, you will not get good FA's to come here. This leaves you with taking chances or having to sign players with warts (bad clubhouse personalites, lack of hustle, and me first types). You will never win big with these types. Option 2: If you want to play hardball and Buxton plays into your hands by having a bad spring you could send him to Rochester and leave him for the year. If you as the FO are convinced he is not going to stay here, this might be the winning option. It will now align Buxton with the new upcoming core and you could get 2 - 3 years from Buxton when the Twins might be really good. Downside: There is this pesky thing called the CBA, this would certainly be noted by the union (especially if Buxton did well in Rochester and was not called up). It would certainly complicate things and might lead to the union holding out for shortened club control be free agency as small and mid market clubs would take note and try to group talent into possible windows. Extreme case is that it might be litigated based on deliberate manipulations with the goal of bringing all sports into a much changed employee - employer relationship (this might be done by dissolving the sports unions). 2. The Kris Bryant - Chicago Cubs case. This is more of the common case where the Cubs sent Bryant down at the start of the season to gain an extra year of control over him (even though Kris Bryant was clearly major league ready). What this has done to the Cubs is that there is almost no chance he will resign with the Cubs unless they offer more than any other club. Cubs might, but are not guaranteed to do that. Or the relationship may be so far south Cubs would have to do a big overpay to keep him. Where does thing affect Buxton? 1. It means that the union will almost certainly want changes to the CBA in this area. This could be a big sticking point (if the union decides to exist). This could lead to a nasty strike(which might last for a long time into the season before being settled), or major changes to the length of team control (most of which I have seen is about 4 years). This would in the long run kill the small market teams from being competitive for any length or period of time). 2. Buxton could develop a bad or me first attitude (this would be very bad for clubhouse chemistry) and could try and force his way out early than the Twins would want.

This is not rebuilding - it is prolonged agony. A rebuild from what - an accidental year that got us blown out of the play offs, Since 2010 we have lost 90 or more 5 times. We have been above 500 twice. We have averaged being 22 games behind for the last 8 years. We have seen attendance go down 7 out of 8 years. We have been 4 or 5th place 5 times and second 3 times - does second in the Central count? We have been in limbo or purgatory. Some teams get better when they get worse because of their draft place, but we always have to wait two years - now it is for Lewis and Kiriloff. We rank number 16 in OBP, 19th in Slugging, 18 in OPS - we are 94 in OPS+ and 23rd in HRs, but only 16 in Ks! If you have lots of Ks I thought that the theory was you would have lots of HRs. What did I miss? Of course if you do not hit the long ball - there is always speed - we ranked 28 in SB. So pitching! Here the BP gives us position number 23 in saves. But good news we are up to 16 in Ks! And we rank #20 in ERA+. But maybe we can just keep them off base with ground balls and great fielding - nope. We are #24 in WHIP. Our starters gave us a +2 WAR ranking us 15 - middle of the pack - at least it is better than the rank of #25 in RP WAR (-4.5) In wins above average by position we rank #20 overall at - 6.3 WAR. #18 in total pitching WAR (-2.8) which is brought down by our Bullpem ranking #25 at (-4.7). NOTE THAT ALL THESE RANKINGS ARE FOR MLB, NOT JUST THE AL. In non-pitching we rank number 19. So go around the diamond: Catcher 16 (-0.6) 1st Base 24 (-1.6) who wanted to bring Mauer back? 2nd Base 21 (-0.7) SS 24 (0.0) Despite the fact that Eduardo Escobar played there half the year and had 2.2 WAR while he did. What does that say about Polanco? 3B 23 (-0.7) LF 7 (1.3) There is no minus! Way to go Rosario. CF 17 (-0.3) RF 10 (0.3) Not great, but no minus. DH 27 (-0.8) My god, we can't even get a plus from DH? All of those from Baseball Reference - https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018.shtml So what are we rebuilding? We have 40% of a rotation, one decent reliever, two OFs who hold their own and a catcher that is improving. Yes I am a skeptic. All our deals, our drafts, our promise has amounted to an 8 year purgatory. Tell the FO to call me when we have at least half of a really good team. In all of MLB we were in 19th place last year, 30 games behind the Red Sox, In AL only we were number 9 and five of the six teams behind us were tanking. Even in just our division we were 13 GB! And Cleveland ranked number 5 in the AL and you know how well they did in the playoffs.

I know it is popular to say Molitor is a poor manager. Today there is even a comparison with Lovullo. But maybe the problem rises to higher levels. Yes Lovullo lost his Ace and still succeeds. The Twins pitching lost its Ace and continued too. I here that the Twins are not running the bases like others. The problem is, you have to get on base. We have a collective 234 batting average and a 307 OBP. The old cliche is - you can't steal first. This team is not built for much of anything. So what has the Front Office done for Molitor - they brought in LaMarre, Cave, Morrison, and Motter. We lost our catcher and they brought in Bobby Wilson. Tell me how Mauer compares to Goldschmidt? Who are the leaders for the team. On the pitching side the analytical geniuses bring in Lynn and Odorizzi - its been a roller coaster, but I am not upset by those moves. On the other hand our aging bullpen additions do nothing for me. We have a 41 year old Rodney and 38 year old Belisle. Then we tell Molitor not to over use the one or two arms that are actually delivering. Reed and Duke - two more old vets are okay, but Reed failed as the eighth inning arm. The FO brought in more coaches, consultants, good old twins guys than I can count or remember, but we watched our two premier players for the future - Sano and Buxton fail and flounder. How many consultants can we assign to them. Fernando Romero looks like the real thing, but as he reached that point where some adjustments are needed we send him down - sorry calling all our consultants. We have had Adrianza and Petit at SS when we have Gordon in the minors. Gordon might be needing some more development, but can't he match these two or perhaps spell a struggling Dozier. Of course Molitor does not want a 224 lead-off hitter like Grossman, but we started with Dozier who is batting 218 and Mauer who is batting 254 and looks lost since his occurrence of concussion symptoms. So who else can bat first? We need the two Eddies to be in the top of the lineup, but do you move them to one and two and put powerless Mauer at number 3 with 191 batting Morrison and 218 batting Dozier in position to drive them in? Who does Molitor bring in from the pen - Hildenberger is doing great, Magill does not seem to have anyones confidence, Reed lost his position, Duke scares us, Rogers and Pressly have eras over 4 - terrible for a reliever. So FO guys, where is the help? How do you give your manager a roster he can actually work with?

Of all the things that I love about the MLB, the farm systems are near the top. Following baseball is so much fun because even in the lowest years there is that optimism that comes with building up a minor league program. Honestly, I would rather be at that bottom than treading water in the middle. Now, it goes without saying but I’ll say it anyways, a World Series every now and then would be nice. However, for much of the last decade Twins fans have been watching the pipeline grow. Speculating about Miguel Sano’s future production, salivating at the thought of Buxton roaming the Target Field grass, and always searching for the top pitching prospect has been and continues to be a challenging enjoyment. What got the Twins to this place, building from the bottom, however; was the lack of consistent growth in the farm system. Like most Twins fans, I have been pleased with the work of Thad Levine and Derek Falvey. Honestly, it is hard not to be impressed considering the improvements the club has made over their watch. However, what I’m most excited about has been their ability to put a winning club together at Target Field and not just keep their prospects, but build out the farm system. MLB.com just put out their 2018 Prospect Lists and I thought it would be fun to look at who of the Twins Top 30 Prospects are the results of Levine and Falvey moves. Let’s take a look… Player/Prospect Rank/Acquire Through Royce Lewis #1 Draft Brent Rooker #8 Draft Blayne Enlow #9 Draft Zack Littell #15 Trade Andrew Bechtold #20 Draft Tyler Watson #22 Trade Jacob Pearson #25 Trade Landon Leach #28 Draft Yunior Severino #29 International Signing David Banuelos #30 Trade Taking into account only the moves made to acquire minor league talent it is safe to safe this front office did well last year. Certainly drafting from the top gave them an advantage. However, they took full advantage of that draft slot and the money that came with it. With one draft class Falvey and Levine have stacked their farm system with five talented players. Three of whom are in the top ten. Beyond the draft class which has yielded great early results, they were smart with their International Signing Money. The Twins were able to jump on Severino, who was made available after the Braves scandal. In addition to the middle infielder, the Twins made two smart trades sending away money to bring in Jacob Pearson and David Banuelos. Obviously, all three players have their flaws, but they are also young and were acquired wisely. I believe that is the best way to sum up the early returns of this new front office; wise moves. The Twins really haven’t yet made a big splash, but they have made smart, calculated moves. Falvey and Levine seem perfectly content to continue to stock the selves with raw talent, watch it grow and strike when the timing is right. I must admit, it’s been fun to watch so far!