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Welcome back to my ongoing little thread where my opinions come out to play. I hope to add to the conversation about the Twins. When last I wrote, the Twins were in first place and my attention in the division was the Chicago White Sox. That has changed. Cleveland has climbed into first place, winning three straight series on the road and sits atop the AL Central. I attended the matinee yesterday and saw Cleveland first-hand. They are a pretty good club and playing very well right now. They've da eveloped enough hitters that the top 2/3s of their lineup is good. Their bullpen looks much better than the Twins and they have an abundance of speed, which helps them in the field and on the base paths. Cleveland isn't very deep, but if they avoid injuries, they are a complete team that will have a winning record. Alex Kirilloff is back with the Twins. When I wrote about this team just before Opening Day, I opined that AK's floor was Mark Grace offense and Will Clark defense and his ceiling was Mark Grace defense and Will Clark offense. After his wrist woes, I was worried that he would never be the same player he could have been. Now, I'm back on the bus for Kirilloff. He's going to hit and he is going to be a fine first baseman (IMHO of course). Trevor Larnach meanwhile has hit the skids. Since June 1, his OPS is .429, and he's struck out 24 times in 68 plate appearances. He still looks like a better hitter and ballplayer than the guy who played last year, but he might soon be losing playing time or perhaps he'll be sent back to St. Paul. Speaking of demotion to St. Paul, if all the position players are healthy, the Twins have two too many on the major league roster. Miguel Sano will start his rehab probably in July and the Twins would have 20 days to wait before they have to bring him back to the majors. Most likely, there will be injuries to players that make the unpleasant decisions of demotion or DFA moot. That said, if all of the 15 players are healthy, it is still a tough call as to who should be sent down or DFAed. My vote would be Larnach and Nick Gordon, but my opinion could change. A third choice would be to DFA or trade Sano. I don't think that is out of the realm of possibility. I wish Ryan Jeffers could throw out a few runners. He is a good receiver and seems to synch well with the pitchers and I think the bat will come around. I am running pretty cold on Gary Sanchez these days. Yes, he has power, but he's hitting about .215 and watching him "run" down the first base line probably upsets me more than it should. Luis Arraez is having a great season, but he's not a lock for the batting title. In fact, right now he trails Tim Anderson of the White Sox in BA. Anderson had an injury and is below the plate appearance threshold, but he's hitting .354 to Arraez' .349. Arraez is a .216 hitter with a .534 OPS against lefties. He should get several days off when the Twins face southpaws. It appears that the pitching coach and the manager don't trust Tyler Duffey at all right now. If this is in fact the case, it might be time to bid him farewell. With current pitcher usage, every bullpen arm needs to contribute and currently Duffey isn't contributing. There are bullpen arms on the horizon (returning from injury) and if the Twins are saherious about contending they will pick up at least one late-inning reliever by the trade deadline. Devin Smeltzer has really done a nice job as a soft-tossing lefty in the starting rotation. I hold my breath every time he throws an 88 mph fastball over the plate, but he is getting the job done. He's also thrown more six inning or more starts than anyone on the team except Joe Ryan. I'll close with my continued confusion about Byron Buxton. I am not a doctor, so I don't know if putting him on the IL to work through his knee tendonitis is the right call. What the Twins are getting from Buxton is much, much less than what the Twins got from him in 2021 (in 60 games). He has only played 33 games in the outfield and he is not a threat to steal a base. His value is almost exclusively from hitting home runs. IMHO, the plan isn't working if this is what we will see the rest of the season. According to the Twins web site, Buxton's knee has not improved since suffering an injury in April.

I guess I've felt the Twins were very prone to place players on the IL when they were unable to play for a day or two. I've also thought they were inclined to keep players on the IL perhaps longer than needed, such as with Sonny Gray, who was supposed to be on the Injured List for the minimum amount of time, and then he was out for an additional week plus. Now I am starting to really not know what is going on. Case in point--Byron Buxton. After the knee injury scare, he didn't play for over a week and then DHed and then sat out a game. So basically all Buxton did in a 10-day period was DH one game. Now Buxton was removed from a game and out of today's game with an off day to follow. It would be speculation to determine what is going on, but Tingler indicated his current injury is a hip problem (same as last year at this time?). Bremer and Morneau were speculating that Buxton's knee was still bothering him. We all know Buxton's extensive injury history and his immense value to the team when healthy, but is carrying him on the active roster with frequent DH days and days off better than placing him on the IL to get as right as he can be? I know it's not an easy decision, but I have to believe going in to every day with "will he or won't he" be in the lineup (and center field) really the way to go? Next case--Carlos Correa. I guess it was understood he wouldn't play at all in the series with the Athletics, but will he sit out more games after Monday? If he misses two series, wouldn't it make sense that he be put on the Injured List? If he can play against the Astros (and I'm sure he really wants to), it probably is a good move to avoid the IL for him and they got a look at Royce Lewis as a fringe benefit. Sonny Gray (and maybe Bailey Ober)--Both guys were originally diagnosed with minor injuries that would require no more than the minimum time on the IL. Gray spent 19 days on the IL and would have taken even more (scheduled rehab start in St. Paul) which changed to starting for the Twins. I haven't seen anything about Ober being activated and his 10 days are up before Tuesday's game against Houston. Alex Kirilloff--AK went from being in the preliminary lineup to the IL. He didn't stay on the list too long (three weeks) and he was sent on rehab to St. Paul and apparently recalled mostly because there wasn't anyone else on the 40-man roster. To me, this is a crazy quilt of decisions. There really isn't consistency in the decision-making process. One decision seems to prioritize long-term health of the player, another seems to prioritize winning today's game and a third seems to be about expediency. I don't have first-hand knowledge of any of these situations, but it's puzzling to me. Please comment and discuss.

With Buxton in center and Kepler in right, the Twins are set at two of the three outfield positions, Behind them, however, there is a notable gap, both offensively and defensively. Among the guys that manned the outfield last year are Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick, Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave and Trevor Larnach. Gordon is an infielder who was pressed into emergency service in the outfield. His defensive marks are so-so and offensively he was not great in about 200 plate appearances. Garlick logged about 100 plate appearances and did well against left handed pitching, his defense was satisfactory but uninspiring, and he even played center field a couple of games before going down with injury. Rooker got over 200 PAs and hit nine homers, but was brutal in the outfield and disappointing at the plate, although he did rake in AAA. Kirilloff was hampered by injury but showed enough to certainly be part of the Twins' plans for 2022, although his best defensive position is definitely first base. Larnach started well, got beat up and slumped at the plate. and finally was sent back to St. Paul. Cave is the most experienced of the candidates, but has struggled mightily the last two seasons after being a valuable fill-in and fourth outfielder in 2018-19. Cave also grades well in left field, but is stretched a bit in center.All but Garlick and Cave are high draft choices by the Twins. Gordon is out of options and Garlick and Cave are not on the 40-man roster. I really don't dislike Nick Gordon or Brent Rooker but I see no role for either of them on a 2022 Twins team that now looks like they want to wrest away the Central title from the White Sox or at least make the expanded playoffs. Among the right handed hitters, Garlick is a better fit for a contending team because he has favorable splits against left handed pitching and is acceptable as a corner outfielder. I'm pulling for Larnach to seize left field. He has good power and a hitting profile that suggests that he could develop into a solid hitter despite last year's slide. As a seldom-used fourth or fifth outfielder, Cave would be okay in that he has lots of center field experience and is a defensive asset in left and he runs better than average. Gordon has very good wheels, but hasn't hit much and additionally with all of the second basemen in the Twins' system, it looks like his chance to be an every day player is non-existent, especially if he's #4 on the depth chart at shortstop. My opinion is that Kirilloff should play first base a majority of the time. He should hit enough to get time in left, but moving him there hurts the team defense at both first and left field. What would be ideal is to have a player with good defense and good speed who hits right handed who can fill left field and cover center in Buxton's absence. The only possibility of that in the organization who could help the club this year is Austin Martin, who does seem a ways away yet and who has played as much shortstop as center field. I am looking for others' opinions on this and checking to see if I'm missing something. What is the opinion of the Twins Daily faithful? Let's hear from you.

#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss) | Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners. | #7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State) | Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career. | #6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS) | The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed. | #5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade) | The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool. | #4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS) | Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career. | #3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS) | The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day. | #2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington) | This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher. | #1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State) | I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content. || I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!