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The Twins clearly need to trade for relief help before the upcoming August 2nd deadline arrives. And they're going to How much will it make a difference for the better? The past paints a checkered picture. For the sake of keeping things succinct and semi-relevant, we're going to limit this retrospective analysis to the Target Field years. Which of course means we begin with one of the most infamous deadline deals in franchise history. 2010 July 29: Twins Trade C Wilson Ramos to Nationals for RHP Matt Capps In a classic Minnesota Sports Twist of Fate™, legendary Twins closer Joe Nathan tore his UCL in spring training of 2010 – a season where the Twins would go on to field arguably the best team of their entire run under Ron Gardenhire. As the deadline approached, the team had one glaring need, at least in the eyes of a front office led by general manager Bill Smith: a proven veteran closer to offset the loss of Nathan. Sure, Jon Rauch – acquired in a post-deadline deal the previous season – had been doing a perfectly adequate job, but he didn't have all those precious saves on his résumé. In a display of the backwards thinking that would soon lead the franchise into a complete and sustained collapse, Smith's front office made the outrageous decision to trade away a highly touted, MLB-ready, slugging catcher in 22-year-old Wilson Ramos, to acquire Matt Capps from Washington. Capps was a pretty ordinary reliever who entranced the Twins with his good first half and experience as a closer (even though he'd been terrible the previous year). In fairness, he proved to be a successful acquisition for the 2010 season, posting a 2.00 ERA and converting 16 of 18 saves the rest of the way. But he was inconsequential in the playoffs, as the Twins never had a late lead against New York. Capps was bad the next season, hurt in 2012, and then done as a major-leaguer before turning 30. Ramos went on to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2011, and make two All-Star games in an impressive MLB career that isn't necessarily over yet. He's currently rehabbing from ACL surgery at age 34. His loss became especially painful when Joe Mauer had to move off catcher a year later and the Twins were left with an empty cupboard at catcher. One of the worst trades in Minnesota Twins history, bar none – in large part because it was so obviously a horrendous decision at the moment it was made. 2015 July 31: Twins Trade Pitching Prospects Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia to Rays for RHP Kevin Jepsen This move, like the previous one, was driven by the Twins realizing a need in the late innings due to injuries impacting their star closer. Glen Perkins did not experience a season-ending injury in 2015 -- in fact, he made his third straight All-Star Game -- but as the trade deadline approached, it became clear something was amiss. He blew two saves in the second half of July as his strikeouts evaporated and hitters began to tee off. Finding themselves on the fringe of postseason contention for the first time in five years, Terry Ryan and the Twins knew they needed to shore up the bullpen. They struck a deal on deadline day to acquire Kevin Jepsen from the Rays in exchange for a pair of lower-tier pitching prospects. The Twins actually deserve a lot of credit for this move, even if it didn't pay real dividends as they missed the playoffs by a longshot. Jepsen pitched very well -- much better than he had up to that point in Tampa, or really at any point in his eight-year career, spent mostly with the Angels. In 29 appearances for the Twins, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 28 innings, converting 10-of-11 saves. Much like with Capps, it was all downhill from there. Jepsen absolutely bombed for the 2016 Twins, posting a 6.16 ERA in 33 appearances before they cut him loose in July. From there, he was pretty much done as a big-leaguer, posting a 5.80 ERA in 35 ⅔ innings for the Rays and Rangers. Capps was 27 when the Twins acquired him; Jepsen had just turned 31. Both were performing well and at least somewhat highly regarded. And yet both were essentially out of baseball after short, doomed stints with the team. Really something. In any case, the return on this deal never hurt the Twins. Chih-Wei Hu appeared briefly in the majors but fizzled out after 23 innings. He's now pitching in China. Alexis Tapia never got past Single-A. 2019 July 27: Twins Trade 1B Lewin Diaz to Marlins for RHP Sergio Romo Of all trades in this category from the past couple of decades, this is probably the prototype for getting it right. The Twins gave up a decent but hardly indispensable prospect in Lewin Diaz, and got back a veteran rental reliever who was (almost) everything they wanted him to be. A 12-year MLB veteran and three-time World Series champ, Sergio Romo was flat-out excellent down the stretch, posting a 3.18 ERA and 27-to-4 K/BB ratio in 22 ⅔ innings to help stabilize the bullpen and lock up a division crown. They liked him enough that they re-signed him as a free agent in the offseason, although that proved to be perhaps not a great choice. Diaz still has a chance to haunt the Twins, I guess. He's only 25 and has hit well enough at Triple-A to get some chances with James Rowson's Marlins. But even if not for this trade, Minnesota would've likely moved on a while long ago. It should be noted that while this has to be viewed as one of the franchise's most successful trades for a reliever at the deadline, they still didn't really get what they wanted out of it. Part of Romo's appeal was in his postseason track record, but that paid no dividends for the Twins. He gave up two runs in two innings in the 2019 ALDS and then had a meltdown in his lone appearance against Houston in 2020. July 31: Twins Trade 3 Prospects to Giants for RHP Sam Dyson And we conclude with the prototype for getting it wrong. So very, very wrong. The ill-fated trade with the Giants for Sam Dyson went sour almost immediately, with the Twins front office seemingly taking an unfair share of criticism in a situation where they themselves were bamboozled. The announcement of a move for Dyson trickled in just as the 3:00 PM deadline elapsed on the 31st, with the Twins sending a package of three semi-interesting prospects (outfielder Jaylin Davis, pitchers Kai-Wei Tang and Prelander Berroa) to San Francisco in the deal. Dyson was enjoying a very good season, with a 2.47 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 51 innings. Upon arriving in Minnesota, he fell apart right away, coughing up six earned runs while recording two outs in his first two appearances. Demoted instantly to a middle-innings role, the right-hander sputtered through 10 more unimpressive appearances before being shut down and revealing that he'd been dealing with shoulder pain since well before the trade. The Twins, miffed by the transaction of damaged goods, launched an investigation into the Giants, who claimed to unaware of Dyson's non-disclosed injury. It didn't go anywhere, that I know of. To top it all off, Dyson was subsequently outed as an even worse person than pitcher. Allegations by his ex-girlfriend Alexis Blackburn that November led to the reliever receiving the longest-ever suspension under MLB's domestic violence policy. More recently, this past December, Blackburn filed in court for accusations of rape, battery, and infliction of emotional distress against Dyson. He's all but certainly done as a big-leaguer, joining Capps and Jepsen as relatively young and effective relievers (he was 31 when acquired) who came to the Twins and saw their careers end very quickly -- albeit under very different circumstances here. The Twins certainly couldn't have known anything about Dyson's off-field issues, and they also didn't know about his pre-existing injury. That's the nature of last-minute deadline deals ... you don't really have an opportunity to complete in-depth medical evaluations. But maybe that's the lesson that can be taken away from this unfortunate example: when you wait until literally the last moment before the deadline, you leave yourself in a situation where your options become limited and your decisions can become rushed. Maybe it's no surprise that the reliever they acquired four days earlier worked out much better. In other words, it would be good to see the Twins act a bit more quickly on their needs this time around. The trade deadline is 12 days away. View full article

It's no secret that Minnesota's pitching was bad this season. They tied with Arizona for the worst ERA in baseball. Since the Twins last made the playoffs in 2010, every pitching staff has posted an ERA of 4.07 or higher. The only year the staff managed an ERA below 4.55 was the 2015 club. Pitching continues to be a giant hole for the Twins. The Twins Daily writers including minor league writers, voted for their top three pitcher of the year candidates. Three points were given for first place votes, two points for second place votes, and one point for third place votes. All seven ballots and point totals can be found below. In the end, Ervin Santana was the unanimous choice for the Twins Pitcher of the Year. Here is a quick reminder of our previous 2016 Twins Daily award winners: Most Improved- Brian Dozier Rookie of the Year- Max KeplerErvin Santana had something to prove during the 2016 season. This came a year after being suspended for 80 games for PED use, on the heels of a big off-season free agent deal. When he returned from suspension, he allowed four runs or more in six of his first ten games (6.05 ERA) including 11 home runs. He settled in from there, posting a 1.62 ERA and a 5-2 record over his last seven starts. Santana was able to build off of this strong finish in 2015 as the 2016 season began. Through his first seven starts, he had an ERA under 3.15 and a 32 to 14 strikeout to walk ratio. Even with these strong numbers, the Twins compiled a 1-6 record (Santana was 1-2). Over his next five starts, he allowed five runs or more in all but one of those games. His season ERA topped out at 5.10 and he had a rough 1-7 record. From June 19 through August 21 (11 starts), Santana saw his best stretch of the year and it's likely one of the main reasons he won this award. Across 75.1 innings pitched he limited opponents to 15 earned runs (1.79 ERA). Batters hit .202/.241/.285 against him. This stretch also included two complete games and one complete game shutout against Oakland. "I haven't had many decisions in a year-and-a-half of letting a guy go out there to get a shutout," Twins manager Paul Molitor said about his late-inning decision to keep Santana rolling. "But, he was dominant." Santana's dominance cooled down as the season wound to a close. In September, he averaged less than six innings per appearance while opponents got on base over 32% of the time against him. He struck out more than a batter an inning (36 SO in 34 IP) and posted a solid 2.65 ERA. However, there was only one start where he was given more than three runs of support and that was his final win of the year. While Santana was a lone bright spot in a struggling rotation, there were some other bullpen arms that compiled solid numbers. Minnesota went into the season thinking a back-end trio of Glen Perkins, Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen would be the key to winning games. Perkins missed almost the entire season, May tried to play through an injury, and Jepsen pitched terribly. This allowed other players to claim a role. Brandon Kintzler signed with the Twins in December from the Brewers organization. With the trio mentioned above, he likely was uncertain of his role in Minnesota. He wouldn't earn his first save until the beginning of June but he went on quite a stretch after taking over the job. Over his next 19 appearances, he allowed three earned runs (1.50 ERA) as opponents got on base less than 28% of the time. There were some rough appearances over the last month but he set career highs in saves and games finished. Other bullpen arms like Ryan Pressly and Fernando Abad were offered opportunities to prove they belonged at the big league level. Pressly set a career high in SO/9 and tossed over 75 innings for only the second time in his career. Abad signed on a minor league deal before the season. He posted a 2.65 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP before being dealt to the Red Sox at the trade deadline for RHP Pat Light. In a bad year that included plenty of poor pitching, Santana and part of the bullpen put together strong stretches. There was plenty of talk of trading Santana around this year's trade deadline. It will be interesting to see if the new regime keeps Santana around or uses him as a trade chip to build for the future. THE BALLOTS In an attempt to be transparent, here are the votes from our Twins Daily writers: Seth Stohs – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Brandon Kintzler, 3.) Ryan Pressly/Taylor RogersParker Hageman – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Brandon Kintzler, 3.) Fernando AbadNick Nelson – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Brandon Kintzler, 3.) Ryan PresslyJeremy Nygaard – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Brandon Kintzler, 3.) Ryan PresslyCody Christie – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Brandon Kintzler, 3.) Fernando AbadSteve Lien – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Brandon Kintzler, 3.) Ryan PresslyEric Pleiss – 1.) Ervin Santana, 2.) Ricky Nolasco, 3.) Buddy BoshersPOINTSErvin Santana- 21 Brandon Kintzler- 12 Ryan Pressly- 3.5 Ricky Nolasco- 2 Fernando Abad- 2 Buddy Boshers- 1 Taylor Rogers- 0.5 Feel free to discuss. How would your ballot look? Click here to view the article

Proven closer... In a baseball world full of analytics and new statistical analysis, what does the term "proven closer" even mean? Old-school baseball minds would tell you that a "proven closer" is the player a manager always turns to in the ninth inning of a close game. He has experience collecting saves and pitching in high leverage situations. It doesn't matter the match-ups for the final frame because the "proven closer" will be out there on the mound. However, not every team has a proven closer and every closer needs to start gaining experience somewhere to earn their "proven closer" badge of honor.Terry Ryan, the Twins recently fired GM, was no stranger to this adage. Entering the 2012 season, Glen Perkins had been dominant in relief the year before but he was hesitant to give him the closer role. "He doesn't have any experience in that role," said Ryan. "I think you're wise to ultimately see if you can find a guy with experience." Perkins would serve as closer that season and he has been a three-time All-Star since 2012. Flash-forward to the 2016 season and the Twins have shuffled through multiple players at the back-end of the bullpen. Glen Perkins began the year with the closer title but he was limited to two appearances before requiring season-ending shoulder surgery. Kevin Jepsen was fantastic at the end of 2015 so he stepped back into the closer role. However, he posted a 6.16 ERA and was recently released by the club. Enter Brandon Kintzler, a 31-year old who the Brewers organization didn't want in the off-season. Since earning his first save on June 8, Kintzler has posted a 1.69 ERA and a 10 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 appearances. Opponents are slashing .238/.262/.317 and he has yet to blow a save. There's been a shift with the former 40th-round draft pick this season. In previous season's he stayed in the low to mid 90's but this season he has hit over 95 multiple times. Another significant change in 2016 has been his use of his sinking fastball. For his career, he has used this pitch 52.8% of the time but this season he has bumped that total up to 83.4%. Kintzler's sinking fastball has also resulted in 15 strikeouts this season which is 75% of all of his strikeouts this season. Over the course of his career, this pitch has been the out pitch in 53.2% of his strikeouts. He ranks third in the American League in ground ball percentage. This pitch has also been effective because he has hit nearly 96 mph with it but he can also drop it all the way down to 87.6 mph. The myth of the "proven closer" might still be out there in some baseball organizations. Kintzler has been good and hopefully someone would like to pay for Kintzler and his new closer title as the trade deadline approaches. Because he seems to have "proven" himself. Click here to view the article

On Monday, the Twins officially released Kevin Jepsen following a miserable first half. The timing of the move is painful, coming one day after Chih-Wei Hu – the 22-year-old pitching prospect dealt for Jepsen last July – flashed outstanding stuff in the All Star Futures Game. Many will dwell on how bad the trade now looks. Few would have done so at the end of last September. But there is a valuable takeaway here, and it's one that this organization should already have taken away.Hu always had the makings of a nice young pitcher so it's no surprise to see him succeeding in Tampa's system. But Jepsen was also an accomplished veteran reliever with strong numbers, and you have to give up something to get something. It's not like Hu was an elite young talent by any stretch. Would Terry Ryan have needed to part with a prospect of even Hu's caliber, though, if he were merely acquiring a two-month rental of similar ability? Not a chance. The Twins had to step up their offer in order to bring in a player who remained under team control for an additional season. Jepsen's drastic drop-off, from sheer brilliance in 2015 to utter ineptitude in 2016, serves as a reminder that relief pitchers are extremely volatile assets. That is why it makes little sense to pay extra for added commitment. This misstep is made more frustrating because it's a lesson that the Twins have already learned the hard way, and also because it's completely inconsistent with the way Ryan operates otherwise. At the trade deadline in 2010, Minnesota was on the lookout for an established closer as they geared up for a postseason run. Bill Smith infamously gave up catching prospect Wilson Ramos in exchange for Nationals reliever Matt Capps. Ramos was a prized prospect at a high-value position, and seemed like a high price to pay for a good-not-great closer. But the appeal of Capps, and the factor that undoubtedly swayed Smith to surrender Ramos, was the extra year of control. The Twins didn't really know what to expect from Joe Nathan in 2011, when he'd be freshly rehabbed from Tommy John surgery, so they sought added stability in the late innings. The way things played out was essentially a mirror image of what we just witnessed with Jepsen. Capps did his part down the stretch in 2010, filling a key role in the bullpen, but was an unreliable mess the following year. This kind of fluctuation isn't uncommon. Again, relief pitchers are volatile. That trade is now widely viewed as the worst in modern franchise history, since the Twins are bereft of long-term catching options whereas Ramos appeared in last night's All-Star Game. Now, Ryan has fallen into the same trap, albeit to a lesser degree. Clearly, Jepsen's extended control was attractive as the GM looked ahead at an uncertain 2016 bullpen picture. Ryan may have had some inklings about the issues that were beginning to plague Glen Perkins, as well. But the proper approach would have been to pick up a true rental, which would demand a lower return, and regroup in the offseason. There, the trade market is less driven by timing and leverage, while free agents are also available. This brings me to the part that is most irksome. Throughout his tenure, Ryan has consistently eschewed the high-end free agent reliever market, and the reason is always the same. It's not the money, it's the term. He doesn't like making multi-year contract commitments to relief pitchers, given their mercurial nature. Hey, it makes sense. But if that's the mindset, why are you willing to give up prospects – a far more valuable commodity than money – in exchange for that very same thing? This costly inconsistent thinking stands out as a major blemish for the Twins front office. Mistakes happen, but they shouldn't happen twice. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton's red hot return to the majors, Max Kepler subbing for an injured Miguel Sano, how long the Twins can stick with Kevin Jepsen at closer, choosing a Twins rep for the All-Star game, going to Wrigley Field during a long weekend in Chicago, why Brian Dozier is treated so carefully, why you should check out MNFarmTeam.com, and what to do with Phil Hughes. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

In the midst of a surprise playoff push last season, the Twins dealt two minor league players including one of the team's top-20 prospects for some relief help. Kevin Jepsen had playoff experience during his time in Los Angeles and he had been productive with Tampa Bay. There was an extra year of team control attached to Jepsen so Minnesota brought him into the fold. His first 29 appearances with the Twins were very good. He posted a 1.61 ERA and a 25 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up 10 saves. It might have been the best stretch of pitching in his big league career. More importantly, he was doing this at a time when the Twins were fighting for the playoffs and Glen Perkins was trying to pitch through an injury before being shut down for the year.The 2016 season has seen a very different Jepsen in a Twins uniform. His ERA is north of 5.00 and he's never posted a season ERA that high in any season where he's thrown more than 15 innings. He's already surrendered four home runs which is tied for the second most he has ever allowed in a season. It's clear that something isn't clicking for Mr. Jepsen. Over the last two seasons, Jepsen has been used a lot. From 2014 through 2015, the only AL pitcher with more than Jepsen's 149 appearances is Bryan Shaw (154 appearances). Jepsen lead AL pitchers in appearances in 2015. He will turn 32 later this summer so there could be a lethal combination of innings adding up with his age. One of the biggest changes this season might be Jepsen's ability use his fastball effectively. Opponents are hitting .300/.338/.583 off his fastball after posting a measly .546 OPS in 2015. His fastball velocity has also been declining over the last three seasons. During the 2014 campaign, his average velocity stay at 95 mph or higher for nearly every appearance. This season he's been limited to two outings where the average velocity on his fastball was 95 mph. Jepsen's curveball has been his most effective pitch for striking out batters throughout his career. However, this season there have been limited opportunities to use this pitch because he can't get ahead of batters early in the count. His SO/9 rate is 8.4 for his career and that number has dropped to 6.2 so far this year. Minnesota's bullpen needs help and the struggles are not limited to Jepsen. The plan was for Trevor May, Jepsen and Perkins to be a relief pitching trio which could bridge the gap from the starter to the end of the game. That plan hasn't worked yet and it isn't all Jepsen's fault. Closers get a lot of focus because of the big leverage outs they are asked to get. Jepsen has not been the same pitcher this season and Twins Territory is frustrated with the way this season has started. In the end, Jepsen is going to need to find what life is left in his right arm to show he can continue to be a late inning pitcher. Otherwise, he might become the fan's punching bag as the losses continue to mount. Click here to view the article

Prior to the season, I wrote that Trevor May's strikeout mentality was sorely needed in a bullpen that had fallen drastically behind the rest of the league in terms of missing bats. Sure enough, the right-hander has been a revelation in that regard, helping to lead a stunning trend reversal that suggests this unit is moving in the right direction even if the results thus far have disappointed.Last year, the Twins ranked dead last in the majors in strikeouts by relievers, with 392. In 2014 they ranked third to last. With bullpens across the league loading up on hard-throwers and strikeout pitchers, Minnesota was on the outside looking in, especially after an offseason that was devoid of aggressive action. The hope was that this issue would be resolved on its own, with Kevin Jepsen around for a full year, Ryan Pressly emerging, and May making a full-time transition to relief. That is exactly what has happened. Entering play on Tuesday, the Twins ranked second in all of baseball in bullpen strikeouts, trailing only the Boston Red Sox. That's a little misleading since the Twins have also accrued a relatively high number of relief innings. Their 24.5 percent strikeout rate is 11th in the majors, which is a bit less astonishing but still a massive jump from the dismal 17.9 percent rate they finished at last season. May has predictably been a K machine while throwing hard in short bursts. He has fanned 23 of the 65 batters he has faced thus far for a 35.4 percent K-rate that places him among the league's elite. One could certainly argue that he has been throwing a little too hard, since he also has eight walks and an MLB-leading five wild pitches, but he has reined things in after an erratic start. May joins Pressly, Michael Tonkin, Fernando Abad and Glen Perkins (who has only made two appearances) as Twins relievers with a K-rate that falls above the league average for relievers. Kevin Jepsen and Casey Fien have both been disappointing in this regard (neither has even come close to a league-average rate) but both might be in their last years with the Twins. Young power arms coming up to replace them eventually, most notably J.T. Chargois and Nick Burdi. Of course, it's not a simple matter of more strikeouts equalling more effectiveness. That's an oversimplification and no reasonable person is naive enough to believe it. But as I mentioned in my spring writeup on May, missing bats "effectively eliminates bad luck, bloopers and bleeders from the equation, which can be particularly critical in close late-game situations." Jepsen is the case in point for this. His inability to put away hitters on his own (Jepsen's 14.4 percent K-rate is the lowest of all Twins relievers) has left him vulnerable to the negative outcomes that have struck him again and again at the most inopportune times. Meanwhile, guys like May and Abad are plowing through the opposition and leaving them with few chances to make noise. While the bullpen has certainly been an overall weakness up to this point, one that has been magnified by the close nature of almost every game and the rarity of instances in which starters have handed over leads leads, there are plenty of positives to be found, especially when you consider which guys are the ones trending up. As for Jepsen, he's probably due for a demotion from the closer role unless his contact-heavy ways take a turn quickly. May, with his intimidating presence and imposing arsenal, looks much more suited for the job right now. With Perkins being an enormous question mark, it may not be a temporary assignment. Click here to view the article

May is upon us. While the Minnesota Twins lost again on Sunday, May 1, I would certainly assume that they are ready to be done with April. An 0-9 start and an overall record of 7-17 is something that the Twins would like to move past. The Twins’ bullpen wasn’t good in April. I think we can all agree with that, and the number of blown saves alone would illustrate it well. Obviously any time that a late-inning bullpen guy has a bad outing, it is likely to cost the team the game, or at least lessen the odds of the team winning. But one thing I wanted to know going into the season, something I’ve been curious about for years, is how often can the manager call to a guy in the bullpen and that reliever got the job done. In other words, how reliable is the pitcher? If Paul Molitor calls on Ryan Pressly in the 7th or 8th inning how often did Pressly leave the game having done his job?Every outing gets a “grade” of either Yes or No. Yes, he got the job done. No, he did not perform well for the situation he was called into. We have looked at this a couple of times already this month, so I thought a monthly recap would be important. It will also give us a basis for what happens in May, June and beyond. Here are the overall success rates of the relievers in April: Pitcher -- Yes-No (Success Rate) Casey Fien -- 8-4 (66.7%) Trevor May -- 7-5 (58.3%) Fernando Abad -- 11-0 (100.0%) Ryan Pressly -- 8-3 (72.7%) Michael Tonkin -- 7-3 (70.0%) Kevin Jepsen -- 5-5 (50.0%) Ryan O’Rourke -- 5-2 (71.4%) Glen Perkins - 0-2 (0.0%) Taylor Rogers -- 1-0 (100.0%) Alex Meyer -- 0-1 (0.0%) So, in the season’s first month, Paul Molitor has gone to his bullpen 76 times. 52 of those times, or 68.4%, have been successful. As I’ve acknowledged all along, this is subjective number based on my interpretation of what getting the job done is for a reliever. But it does give a good sense of where they are. I’m certain it will be of no surprise to read that Kevin Jepsen has struggled, and since he’s been the closer, his non-successful outings have cost leads and in some cases games. Likewise, if you’ve watched, you’re likely not surprised to see that Fernando Abad has been perfect to this point. In case you were wondering: Fernando Abad - 11 G, 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 5 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts.Tony Sipp - 11 G, 8.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts.Antonio Bastardo - 9 G, 10.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9 hits, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts.(Note - yes, I realize this is small sample size and could very well be flipped upside down in May which, of course, is the very nature of relief pitching.) I won’t pretend know where these numbers will go, or if 68% success rate is good. What it does show is that four of the seven relievers used most often are within four percent of the average. Trevor May is about 10% below, and Kevin Jepsen is almost 20% below the average. Fernando Abad is 32% above the average. I would not be shocked if the average each month stays in the 67-75% range, and within each month, there will be a couple of outliers. We shall find out. For good or ill. Click here to view the article

All losses are equal in the standings, this we all know, but there’s something extra galling about losing a game in the late innings, particularly with a blown save in the ninth inning. Everything else went right, then at the last second a supposed specialist comes in and fails to do the job he was on the roster to do. I have long been convinced this is why teams will overpay -- compared to the statistical value -- for reliable closers: They’re willing to give up some financial flexibility to decrease the likelihood of sending their fans home feeling like they were sucker- punched. (Speaking of closer-induced chest pains, long-time Twins fans may remember Ron Davis, the 1984 club’s ersatz closer who blew an MLB-record 14 saves for a team that finished 81-81, just three games out of a playoff spot.) Among the many things that have not gone according to plan for the Twins so far this season, one that is particularly unpleasant is that they’ve recorded seven wins and blown seven saves. The team’s current closer, Kevin Jepsen, leads the team in wins, which can be indicative of a number of things but not a single one of them is good. So here’s my bold prediction: Kevin Jepsen won’t be the Twins’ closer at the All-Star break.Ok, it’s not really that bold. Glen Perkins may not be throwing yet, but if he’s still out two months from now, his shoulder strain is worse than the team has indicated. By the All-Star break, he ought to be back, and if he’s healthy enough to pitch, he’ll resume his typical closing duties, Jepsen then settles back into his eighth-inning role, Trevor May gets the seventh and order is restored. That’s the stage that has to be set before any discussion of Jepsen’s future. He’s not Matt Capps, the Twins’ chosen closer who fell apart midway through his term, he’s a caretaker who will relinquish the job as soon as Perkins is ready. That doesn’t mean he should be implicitly trusted with the job for the time being, it’s worth investigating whether he’s suited for it or not, but it’s important to understand what’s at stake here: 25-30 more end-of-game appearances if things start going the Twins’ way and 20-25 if they don’t. The Twins do have some interesting arms in the minors that will be in the discussion to close for the team in the future. Tyler Jay, the team’s 2015 first-round pick, was one of the best college closers last year but the team believes he has a future as a starter. Even if they decide to push him back to the bullpen, it shouldn’t happen this season and it absolutely shouldn’t be in response to a need within the major league team. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but “Don’t aim for a reliever with the sixth overall pick” is a maxim most teams would probably agree with. If Jay ends up as a high-leverage reliever, so be it, but the ceiling on a reliever’s total career value is notably lower than a starter’s. After a stellar turn in the Arizona Fall League, Nick Burdi is positioning himself for a September call-up at the very minimum and could be up before then if the team continues to suffer pitcher injuries in the quantity they’ve had them in the season’s first month. Burdi has a live arm, but he’s still working on control issues with Double-A Chattanooga. If he starts to lock in his command, it’s not hard to see the team deciding to bypass Rochester and bring him all the way up, but his 1.69 WHIP last season means he’s going to need to show that he can limit base runners consistently before they start moving him aggressively. It’s hard to imagine that timetable being set by the team and met by Burdi before Perkins is ready to rejoin the team. J.T. Chargois is probably the most major league-ready of any reliever in the Twins’ system with solid future potential, but the team would almost certainly want to blend him in before handing him the ninth inning duties. At that point, he’d probably only get 10 appearances or so before Perkins was ready again and there’s no guarantee all 10 would be save opportunities. Even setting aside developmental issues, calling a non-essential player up to make eight appearances of any value makes absolutely no financial sense. That leaves three players already on the major league roster who could conceivably do the job: Jepsen, May and Alex Meyer. Though my feeling on Meyer haven’t changed since he was acquired for Denard Span (profiles as a reliever more than a starter and will struggle with consistency until he can repeat his delivery) the team is handling him as though they view him as a starter. As with Jay, this likely maximizes Meyer’s value, and he should be given every chance to prove he can do it, but with him already on the major league roster, a two-month stint in the bullpen isn’t likely to do any lasting damage. It would, however, stunt any development as a starter until next season. Another potential downside to the move is that there’s absolutely no guarantee that he’ll be an improvement on Jepsen. Terry Ryan has said multiple times over the last few months that the franchise’s long-term plan with May was to have him in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. If that were not the case, May could easily assume the closer role, and there would be a serious discussion about whether Perkins was going to automatically get his job back upon his return. May needs some refinement as a reliever -- he has over half as many wild pitches as a reliever (4) as he had as a starter (7) despite facing 362 fewer hitters -- but his strikeout rate has taken a huge leap forward since he moved to the bullpen last season, which is a good skill for a potential closer to have. Less good would be the aforementioned wild pitches and his walk rate, which has also risen substantially since he left the starting rotation. So, if the Twins are bereft of other obvious options, are they doomed to sink with Davis-esque millstone lashed to their collective necks? Hardly. Jepsen’s 2015 stint with the Twins was one of the best extended stretches of his entire career. A 30-game run from May to June in 2014 when he was still with the Angels was slightly better, but the Twins still got production from their midseason acquisition that the Rays never got and the Angels only saw in fits and starts. If there was any question about Jepsen’s role with the Twins after last year, it was only whether he might supplant Perkins as the closer even absent any injury consideration. In fact, as Perkins fatigued, Jepsen stepped in and gave the Twins a good option at the end of games as they stayed in the playoff chase until the end. His start to this season was obviously suboptimal, but Jepsen does have a history of improving as the year goes on. He has been something of a slow starter throughout his career, peaking in July, then typically fading a little bit down the stretch; he’s far from the only player to follow that type of pattern. It’s not hard to see why Jepsen is struggling: Too few first pitch strikes, too few hitters chasing his out-of-the-zone pitches they can’t hit, too much hard contact, too many home runs, all of which looks less like a systemic collapse and more like a pitcher who just isn’t quite sharp yet and is paying the price for it. Reliever numbers have a tendency to look outsized in either direction; Jepsen looked better than he probably was last year and now the pendulum has swung to the other direction. It’s unlikely that the Twins see the same Jepsen they saw last year, but betting on him to get better and at least return to being more of an asset than a liability isn’t a bad bet. The other reason to keep Jepsen in his current role is a value play. If the Twins continue to muddle well below the .500 mark, Jepsen becomes trade bait starting around Memorial Day. The worst thing to do for his value -- which admittedly isn’t even as high as it was when the Twins traded Chih-Wei Hu for him last season -- would be to let him tank his value the way he has so far this season, then bury him in the pecking order and only bring him back out in low-leverage situations. Even with Jepsen’s track record as a serviceable late-inning option, that would basically cripple whatever market for him would have formed otherwise. Even if Jepsen does make a run at Davis’ blown saves mark, Twins fans can take solace in two things. One, it’s unlikely that Jepsen can blow 11 more saves before Perkins returns, keeping Davis’ ignominy from spreading into the 21st century. And two, given the way the American League is shaping up, it’s fairly unlikely that the Twins are going to just barely miss the playoffs. Click here to view the article

Daniel and I are huge fans of the television show, “Community.” Outside of the former “Top Gear,” it’s the show we watch the most when we hang out. Since the current Minnesota Twins team is a bunch of underachieving misfits (sans Mauer, Park, and a few others), we decided to compare current and recent Twins players as some of your favorite faces at Greendale. Greendale’s school slogan is “E. Pluribus Anus,” which is fitting for the kind of baseball the Twins have played through the month of April. Britta Perry – Kevin Jepsen: This wasn’t much of a stretch. If you’ve ever watched the show, you know Britta is the butt end of most jokes, much the same way Jepsen has been the butt end of a bad bullpen. As someone who’s constantly blamed for ruining things, Jepsen has blown enough saves this year that he’s the teams Britta. We see flashes of Britta’s genius(?), kind of like Jepsen’s 2015 with the Twins. However, it happens infrequently, and it’s not enough to rely on either of them. He is human tennis elbow, he is the pizza burn on the roof of the world’s mouth, he is the opposite of Batman. Jeff Winger – Miguel Sano: While the lead role of Community would better fit someone like Plouffe, Mauer, or even Dozier; Miguel has shown he has the personality of one Mr. Winger. Maybe a bit full of himself after his debut last season, he’s still a young player looking to find his way. While Jeff has his goals and dreams, along with his selfishness, and many insecurities; Sano seems to be a big picture guy. Miguel wants what’s best for the team, while Jeff wants what’s best for him. Hopefully Sano will mature quickly, and find the swing that Twins fans grew to love in a few short months. Shirley Bennett – Brian Dozier: Dozier has a sweet, Southern likeability to him, much like Shirley has a sweet, Lord driven likeability to her. Most of the time they’re lovely, and even keeled... Most of the time. Sometimes they’ll fly off the handle when things aren’t going their way. Through it all both of them find ways to dig down and achieve their roles to the best of their abilities. While I enjoy watching these two have meltdowns (especially when Dozier is yelling about balls and strikes on his way back to the dugout), it’s the friendly smiles and laughter that keeps you coming back. Though sometimes at a distance. And let’s be honest; the Dozier’s Christmas card was the best thing you saw in 2015. Troy Barnes/Abed Nadir – Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Eddie Rosario: “Ed, Edd, and Eddy” would be a much better comparison, but these three are rarely brought up without one of the other two being named. Just like Troy and Abed, the Eddie’s seem bound to each other. While I don’t know if they have a sweet handshake, or if they’ve ever hosted a fake TV show together; the Eddies come up clutch. Just look at what Rosario and Escobar did throughout last season. Now Nunez is hitting like his job depends on it. Though if his job depended on how often his helmet stayed on his head, he’d be gone faster than his helmet falls off his head. Pierce Hawthorne – Ricky Nolasco: The elder statesman of the group, Pierce isn’t liked or respected by many of his peers. While his peers may like him, Twins Territory seems pretty hell bent on shipping Ricky Nolasco as soon as humanly possible. While doing just enough to stay productive and in the good graces of his Greendale classmates, Nolasco has seemingly done the same through 2016. Off to a better than his career average start, Nolasco has been rather dependable. Much like Pierce, Twins fans are waiting for the other shoe to drop, and see the not so nice side of Ricky. That is, the Ricky that looks very similar to Kevin Jepsen, A.K.A; Britta. Maybe Ricky’s in it for the long haul, or maybe Ricky’s in it for Ricky. Either way, Ricky hasn’t been the villain since spring training. Hopefully Ricky’s turned a new leaf in Minnesota. Hopefully… Annie Edison – Joe Mauer: I don’t think Joe has ever had a reliance on Adderall (possibly Kemps milk), but he’s definitely the goody-two-shoes of the Twins. Annie never wants conflict or to disappoint people, and is usually reliable. Sound familiar? Mauer’s had a rebirth in 2016 to the delight of some, and to the chagrin of those who wish he’d catch, hit 30+ dingers, and knock in 110+ RBIs in a season (psssst, #ItsNotHappening nerds). I guess the better comparison would be John Cena; a solid contributor who does what he can to help the team. While half of the fans are excited to see Joe healthy and hitting, others want their power first-baseman to do what Byung-Ho Park was brought in to do. Guess you can’t please everyone, no matter how good your career has been. Ben Chang – Oswaldo Arcia: Ken Joeng’s portrayal of the borderline insane Ben Chang seems to fit Arcia well. While not always the focal point, and not always helpful, Arcia is definitely an enigma. Teammates described Arcia earlier this year with the following; “Overreacts to everything, loves to be the center of attention, and the hair isn’t working.” I don’t think I ever questioned Ben Chang’s hair style, but that would describe him to a T. In the later seasons of Community, Chang became more of a frenemy (yes, I’m ashamed I used that too) and had some memorable episodes. Arcia’s April had some ups and downs, but he looked more like his 2014 self than 2015, which should give Twins fans hope that he can help the team this year, and in the future. “Dean” Craig Pelton – Torii Hunter: Yeah, Torii’s not around this season, but you can bet he’s not far away from what’s happening with this team. The Dean was a outrageous (Torii’s dance parties), a unifying force when things weren’t going well (2015), and a helpful mentor when need be. While The Dean was insecure in himself, and had some odd fetishes that turned some people off, Torii was very staunch in his beliefs, and wasn’t afraid to butt heads when he thought he was right (see: The Dean’s insane costumes, and Torii ripping his jersey off in April/May 2015). Torii was an advisor for a few weeks in spring training, helping to shape and mold the outfield to be the best they can be. I can’t imagine he won’t be a coach for the Twins in some capacity very soon. Torii breathes baseball, the same way The Dean breathes Greendale. If Torii starts to show up in questionable costumes with no reason, the comparison will be officially complete. Magnitude – Byung-Ho Park: “Magnetic Attitude,” or Magnitude, for short; he’s described as a one man party known for his catchphrase, “Pop, pop!” In fact, that’s about all Magnitude says during all six seasons of Community. Byung-Ho Park, known by his nickname, “#ParkBang,” is a one man wrecking crew. Park’s up to 6 home runs as of this writing, and has captured the hearts of Twins Territory with his smile, and monster home runs. Park’s English is getting better, but fans and teammates continue to call him by #ParkBang, and I’m not mad about that at all. Park’s shown that he’s learning on the fly, and his stat line continues to improve each week. He’d be a main player on offense and defense, if only we could get rid of that under-achieving Mauer guy… /sarcasm We obviously missed a good chunk of the roster, and that was by design. There just weren’t enough memorable characters to fill out this article. And as much as I’d like to keep making comparisons, this article is for a very specific audience. We did decide that Ron Gardenhire is the Leonard of the Twins, and Danny Santana is the Starburns, based on their questionable hair choices. What did you think? Did we miss some easy comparisons? Do you agree or disagree with our choices? Let us know in the comments section, and don’t forget to follow us on the Innanetz. Facebook: Twins And Losses Twitter: @TwinsAndLosses / @PandaPete21 www.twinsandlosses.com

The Twins lost again on Wednesday night to fall to 4-11 on the still-young season. After starting 0-9, the team rattled off four straight wins before losing the last two days to Milwaukee. Just over a week ago, I wrote about the Twins bullpen failure during the first week of the season. Today, I am going to update you on how things have been going. It’s unfortunate that I didn’t do it a day earlier probably. And let’s be honest, the bullpen is not the only reason that the Twins are struggling. The offense has at least started hitting for some power of late, but there have been many missed opportunities. Defensively, the team is a mess. Adding to that, the team’s closer, top utility man, and third baseman/clean-up hitter are injured. But let’s get back to the bullpen. I wrote that it was unfortunate that I didn’t write this a day sooner. Why? Because last night, four Twins relievers entered the game and none of them really threw well. They certainly weren’t helped by their defense, but the results for each just isn’t where we, or they, would want them.But let’s take a step back first. I went into last week’s article wanting a stat that would tell me how often a relief pitcher came in and did his job.A simple, yes or no. Yes, there are similar stats such as FanGraphs' Shutdowns and Meltdowns. There may need to be an accounting for leverage. So, this isn’t a perfect stat, but what it does is says that when Paul Molitor calls a guy’s name, he did what was needed in that situation for the team. In theory, it may tell Molitor whether or not the pitcher should be relied upon. THE FIRST SEVEN Let’s start by looking back at the results we showed through seven games. This is through games played April 11. Glen Perkins was 0/2 (0%). Kevin Jepsen was ⅓ (33%) Trevor May was 0/3 (0%). Casey Fien was ⅓ (33%). Ryan Pressly was ¾ (75%) Michael Tonkin was 0/1 (0%) Fernando Abad was 3/3 (100%) Through seven games, the Twins bullpen combined to be 8/19 (42%) successful. I don’t know what a good number is, but I’m certain that 42% is not. We also know that there is enough track record in the above group to know that it wouldn’t stay that bad forever. Even with Perkins going to the disabled list, it couldn’t stay that bad… Or could it? THE NEXT SEVEN So, let’s look at how the bullpen performed games eight through 14. Was it any better? Kevin Jepsen was ¾ (75%). Trevor May was ⅔ (67%) Casey Fien was 2/2 (100%) Ryan Pressly was 3/3 (100%) Michael Tonkin was 3/3 (100%) Fernando Abad was 3/3 (100%) Taylor Rogers was 1/1 (100%) Ryan O’Rourke was 2/2 (100%) That certainly looks a lot better. In the second set of seven games, the Twins bullpen members were successful in 19 out of 21 opportunities. That’s 90.5% which I have to assume is very good. Of course, as I mentioned above, four pitchers who were at 100% in the second week threw in last night’s game and went 0/4. So, here is an update of how the Twins bullpen members have performed through the team’s first 15 games (includes Wednesday’s game too). THROUGH 15 GAMES Glen Perkins is 0/2 (0%) Kevin Jepsen is 4/7 (57.1%) Trevor May is 2/6 (33.3%) Casey Fien is 3/6 (50.0%) Ryan Pressly is 6/8 (75.0%) Michael Tonkin is ⅗ (60.0%) Fernando Abad is 6/6 (100%) Taylor Rogers is 1/1 (100%) Ryan O’Rourke is ⅔ (66.7%) Overall, the team is now 27/44 (61.4%). Again, there is no real context to that number, though I still have to believe that a “good” number should be around 75%, but it may be higher. If you want to factor in for leverage, clearly Perkins, Jepsen and May are being placed in the highest leverage situations, though we have seen Abad, Pressly and Fien in some as well. Last night, Michael Tonkin was placed in a bases-loaded, one out situation and it didn’t go well, but he was very successful when the Twins needed him to get Mike Trout and Albert Pujols out over the weekend. Meanwhile, JT Chargois is sitting in Chattanooga, dominating AA hitters. He has faced 15 batters so far. He’s given up no hits, no walks, hasn’t hit a batter. No base runners through five outings. He’s also struck out nine batters. Nick Burdi is back in Chattanooga looking to get his season started off right. There are some options. Bullpens, and relief pitchers, do have a tendency to be a bit streaky. It is rare to find relievers who are consistently good from year to year. Even within a season, it's normal to have good and bad stretches. It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out over the season. Who will step up and be more consistent, and how long will Terry Ryan be patient with some of these pitchers? So, what do you think? Any further observations on the Twins bullpen? Do any of the numbers above surprise you? Click here to view the article

All losses are equal in the standings, this we all know, but there’s something extra galling about losing a game in the late innings, particularly with a blown save in the ninth inning. Everything else went right, then at the last second, a supposed specialist comes in and fails to do the job they were on the roster to do. I have long been convinced this is why teams will overpay -- compared to the statistical value -- for reliable closers: They’re willing to give up some financial flexibility to decrease the likelihood of sending their fans home feeling like they were sucker punched. (Speaking of closer-induced chest pains, long-time Twins fans may remember Ron Davis, the 1984 club’s ersatz closer who blew an MLB-record 14 saves for a team that finished 81-81, just three games out of a playoff spot.) Among the many things that have not gone according to plan for the Twins so far this season, one that is particularly unpleasant is that they’ve recorded seven wins and blown seven saves. The team’s current closer, Kevin Jepsen, leads the team in wins, which can be indicative of a number of things but not a single one of them is good. So here’s my bold prediction: Kevin Jepsen won’t be the Twins’ closer at the All-Star break. Ok, it’s not really that bold. Glen Perkins may not be throwing yet, but if he’s still out two months from now, his shoulder strain is worse than the team has indicated. By the All-Star break, he ought to be back, and if he’s healthy enough to pitch, he’ll resume his typical closing duties, Jepsen then settles back into his eighth-inning role, Trevor May gets the seventh and order is restored. That’s the stage that has to be set before any discussion of Jepsen’s future. He’s not Matt Capps, the Twins’ chosen closer who falls apart midway through his term, he’s a caretaker who will relinquish the job as soon as Perkins is ready. That doesn’t mean he should be implicitly trusted with the job for the time being, it’s worth investigating whether he’s suited for it or not, but it’s important to understand what’s at stake here: 25-30 more end-of-game appearances if things start going the Twins’ way and 20-25 if they don’t. The Twins do have some interesting arms in the minors that will be in the discussion to close for the team in the future. Tyler Jay, the team’s 2015 first round pick, was one of the best college closers last year but the team believes he has a future as a starter. Even if they decide to push him back to the bullpen, it shouldn’t happen this season and it absolutely shouldn’t be in response to a need within the major league team. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but “Don’t aim for a reliever with the sixth overall pick” is a maxim most teams would probably agree with. If Jay ends up as a high-leverage reliever, so be it, but the ceiling on a reliever’s total career value is notably lower than a starter’s. After a stellar turn in the Arizona Fall League, Nick Burdi is positioning himself for a September call-up at the very minimum and could be up before then if the team continues to suffer pitcher injuries in the quantity they’ve had them in the season’s first month. Burdi has a live arm, but he’s still working on control issues with Double-A Chattanooga. If he starts to lock in his command, it’s not hard to see the team deciding to bypass Rochester and bring him all the way up, but his 1.69 WHIP last season means he’s going to need to show that he can limit baserunners consistently before they start moving him aggressively. It’s hard to imagine that timetable being set by the team and met by Burdi before Perkins is ready to rejoin the team. J.T. Chargois is probably the most major league-ready of any reliever in the Twins’ system with solid future potential, but the team would almost certainly want to blood him in before handing him the ninth inning duties. At that point, he’d probably only get 10 appearances or so before Perkins was ready again and there’s no guarantee all 10 would be save opportunities. Even setting aside developmental issues, calling a non-essential player up to make eight appearances of any value makes absolutely no financial sense. That leaves three players already on the major league roster who could conceivably do the job: Jepsen, May, and Alex Meyer. Though my feeling on Meyer haven’t changed since he was acquired for Denard Span (profiles as a reliever more than a starter and will struggle with consistency until he can repeat his delivery) the team is handling him as though they view him as a starter. As with Jay, this likely maximizes Meyer’s value, and he should be given every chance to prove he can do it, but with him already on the major league roster, a two-month stint in the bullpen isn’t likely to do any lasting damage. It would, however, stunt any development as a starter until next season. Another potential downside to the move is that there’s absolutely no guarantee that he’ll be an improvement on Jepsen. Terry Ryan has said multiple times over the last few months that the franchise’s long-term plan with May was to have him in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. If that were not the case, May could easily assume the closer role, and there would be a serious discussion about whether Perkins was going to automatically get his job back upon his return. May needs some refinement as a reliever -- he has over half as many wild pitches as a reliever (4) as he had as a starter (7) despite facing 362 fewer hitters -- but his strikeout rate has taken a huge leap forward since he moved to the bullpen last season, which is a good skill for a potential closer to have. Less good would be the aforementioned wild pitches and his walk rate, which has also risen substantially since he left the starting rotation. So, if the Twins are bereft of other obvious options, are they doomed to sink with Davis-esque millstone lashed to their collective necks? Not hardly. Jepsen’s 2015 stint with the Twins was one of the best extended stretches of his entire career. A 30-game run from May to June in 2014 when he was still with the Angels was slightly better, but the Twins still got production from their midseason acquisition that the Rays never got and the Angels only saw in fits and starts. If there was any question about Jepsen’s role with the Twins after last year, it was only whether he might supplant Perkins as the closer even absent any injury consideration. In fact, as Perkins fatigued, Jepsen stepped in and gave the Twins a good option at the end of games as they stayed in the playoff chase until the end. His start to this season was obviously suboptimal, but Jepsen does have a history of improving as the year goes on. He has been something of a slow starter throughout his career, peaking in July, then typically fading a little bit down the stretch; he’s far from the only player to follow that type of pattern. It’s not hard to see why Jepsen is struggling: Too few first pitch strikes, too few hitters chasing his out-of-the-zone pitches they can’t hit, too much hard contact, too many home runs, all of which looks less like a systemic collapse and more like a pitcher who just isn’t quite sharp yet and is paying the price for it. Reliever numbers have a tendency to look outsized in either direction; Jepsen looked better than he probably was last year and now the pendulum has swung the other direction. It’s unlikely that the Twins see the same Jepsen they saw last year, but betting on him to get better and at least return to being more of an asset than a liability isn’t a bad bet. The other reason to keep Jepsen in his current role is a value play. If the Twins continue to muddle well below the .500 mark, Jepsen becomes trade bait starting around Memorial Day. The worst thing to do for his value -- which admittedly isn’t even as high as it was when the Twins traded Chih-Wei Hu for him last season -- would be to let him tank his value the way he has so far this season, then bury him in the pecking order and only bring him back out in low-leverage situations. Even with Jepsen’s track record as a serviceable late-inning option, that would basically cripple whatever market for him would have formed otherwise. Even if Jepsen does make a run at Davis’ blown saves mark, Twins fans can take solace in two things. One, it’s unlikely that Jepsen can blow 11 more saves before Perkins returns, keeping Davis’ ignominy from spreading into the 21st century. And two, given the way the American League is shaping up, it’s fairly unlikely that the Twins are going to just barely miss the playoffs.

2015 was a positive season for the Minnesota Twins. Yet, when the season ended, it was clear that there were needs in the organization that needed to be addressed. Foremost among them was the bullpen. In Parker’s interview for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, he asked Terry Ryan, “Where would you prioritize the bullpen in general this offseason?” Ryan responded with, “High.” Parker probed, “Highest priority?” Ryan said, “It’s pretty close up there. Pitching is always the most prioritized area of any team.” That interview was in October. The offseason came and went and the Twins signed exactly zero pitchers to major league contracts, starters or relievers.Granted, the Twins signed MLB veteran lefty reliever Fernando Abad to a minor league contract. There was never really any question that he would make the Opening Day roster. Abad was one of several pitchers signed to minor league deals. Besides Abad, the only pitcher who really had a chance at cracking the Opening Day roster was right-hander Brandon Kintzler, another veteran with several years of big league service time. Dan Runzler and Buddy Boshers were nice stories for spring training, and maybe one of them will perform at AAA and eventually get a promotion back to the big leagues. There were not many bullpen jobs available. Glen Perkins is signed for another year. Kevin Jepsen, after what he did for the Twins after last year’s trade deadline, was coming back, and that’s a good thing. We can debate bringing back Casey Fien, but once he was re-signed, he was a given. Trevor May got some opportunity this spring to start, but we all knew that he would go to the bullpen. Michael Tonkin was out of options. Ricky Nolasco was a possibility for a bullpen spot depending upon spring training performance. Again, there were only one or two jobs to be competed for. In my opinion, I was always comfortable with Twins not wanting to go beyond one year with any relief pitcher for a few reasons. First and foremost, there are very few relievers who are good for multiple years, especially free agent pitchers who are already 31 years old, or older. Most likely, during a two-year contract, the pitcher would be good one of the years. In a three-year contract, you could hope beyond hope that you get two decent years. Of course, we can follow the next three years of Tony Sipp and Antonio Bastardo to see how they pan out. Secondly, the Twins are loaded with relief pitching prospects, guys that we hope are ready sometime in 2016. Guys that we don’t want to see blocked by mediocre veterans. In the same Offseason Handbook Terry Ryan interview, Ryan was asked about the power arms in the system and if they could surface in 2016. He said, “Yeah, we do. I do. I would expect some of those guys to surface this year. I was hoping maybe last year but it was maybe one year premature. Some of those guys had a few struggles, and that’s not a bad thing. Alright, now you know what you’ve gone through. Now you can take a step back. A few of them are out in that Arizona Fall League which is good. I would think that some of those guys are going to surface this year which would be well received here. We can use some of that influx of people. I would like to see some of those relief pitchers there.” In 2016, the following pitchers could come up and contribute to the Minnesota Twins. (Note-That is not saying all of them will, just that they are at a point in their career and development that it is possible) 40-Man Roster Alex Meyer JR Graham JT Chargois Taylor Rogers Ryan O’Rourke Mason Melotakis Pat Dean Non-Roster Nick Burdi Jake Reed Logan Darnell Brandon Peterson Alex Wimmers Now that’s 12 names. Most likely no more than two to four will actually come up in 2016, but by the end of 2017 several more of them will and potentially other names like Luke Bard, Trevor Hildenberger and Yorman Landa will be ready. All of that is well and good, but for a team that expected to compete in 2016, performance matters. And through one week - a very small percentage of the season - the bullpen has been one of the biggest issues contributing to the Twins 0-7 loss. It’s not the only contributing factor. The complete lack of offense and run scoring has pushed the bullpen issues into the spotlight a lot this first week. They have had three one-run losses and two-two run losses. In a couple of the games, the Twins lost leads in the late innings. I’ve always wanted to establish a statistic of sorts to help measure the effectiveness of a relief pitcher. I think it’s fair to say that ERA and even WHIP are not the best statistics to measure the reliability of a reliever. Because relief pitchers generally pitch one, and maybe two, innings once or twice a week, one or two really bad outings can affect how the pitcher’s numbers look for much of the season. To me, I want to know how often a reliever came into a game, into a situation and got the job done. All pitchers are going to have a few clunkers, so I’m going to try something new this year. I’m going to look at each and every appearance by relief pitchers throughout this season and determine whether or not the pitcher did what he was brought in to do. Someone else can name this stat, if it’s worthwhile. Frankly, the reality is that this is subjective. Pitching well or getting the job done can mean different things to different people. For instance, if Trevor May comes in to a situation where there are runners on 1st and 3rd and nobody out and gets out of that inning with just one run scoring, I think he got the job done. If Michael Tonkin comes in with runners on and the Twins already down 8-0 in the 2nd inning, but he leaves the game with the Twins down 11-0 after the fifth or sixth inning, I think he did his job. If Glen Perkins comes in to a game with a 2-run lead and give up just one hit but no runs in the inning, he got the job done. If he comes in to a game with a three-run lead, gives up two runs on three hits and two walks but gets the save, I can’t say that he did his job. So using my opinion, along with box scores and often watching on TV, here are how the members of the 2016 Twins bullpen grade out by this method through the way-too-small-of-a-sample-size of seven games. This stat may be more valuable in six to eight weeks, but here is the introduction: Pitcher Y N Success Glen Perkins 0 2 0.0% Kevin Jepsen 1 2 33.3% Trevor May 0 3 0.0% Casey Fien 1 2 33.3% Ryan Pressly 3 1 75.0% Michael Tonkin 0 1 0.0% Fernando Abad 3 0 100.0% Y=Yes, they got the job done. N=No, they didn't Success = percentage Aside from Fernando Abad and Ryan Pressly, it’s been a tough go for the Twins bullpen so far this season. As I would say to everyone after a poor seven-game start to the season, it is a long season, and things will (most likely) normalize over the course of the next couple of months. I don’t know what is good or bad with these percentages. Is 85% good, or is 70% good? I think we can agree from the start that 50% and lower would not qualify as good. The bullpen was said to be a focus in the offseason. Little significant was done to address it in the offseason which has made it a large focus in the team’s slow start. It is certainly something that warrants monitoring throughout the season. Click here to view the article

The Twins lost their season opener to the Orioles, 3-2 on a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth yesterday by Matt Wieters, who up to that point had been 0-4 and left five stranded on base. The game featured a couple of very promising performances, a few discouraging ones, a play that baseball geeks love to debate and weather shenanigans.The Good Eduardo Escobar began the season where he left off last season, with two doubles, the second of which drove in a run and set the table for the Twins tying run. Escobar was both Aaron Gleeman’s and my pick in yesterday’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast to be the Twin who most surprises in a positive way this year. Escobar, you might recall, posted a .952(!) OPS in August and an 816 OPS in September last year, while showing considerably more plate discipline. Eduardo Escobar is for real. The other impressive outing belonged to Trevor May, who pitched two high-leverage innings out of the bullpen, striking out four of the eight batters he faced. May ended last season exactly the opposite of Escobar: struggling and hurt. Seeing him effective and strong enough to throw 31 pitches (with 22 strikes) is a good omen for the bullpen. The Bad And the bullpen could use some good news, because it had its share of bad news, some expected, some not so much. The expected bad news was that Casey Fien gave up two runs before he got an out, though he did stick around for 2/3 inning after. The Twins offered Fien arbitration this year because, in theory, he offers the upside they saw the in first four months of 2014, when he posted a 2.34 ERA and was a reliable eighth inning setup man. But he battled injuries at the end of 2014, battled them again in 2015 and has posted a 4.57 ERA since August 1st of 2014. A team can gamble on a reliever like that during the offseason, hoping that rest will heal what ails the previously reliable arm. But at some point, it doesn’t matter whether a reliever is ineffective because he’s injured or just because he is not that good. The point should be coming within the next month or so for Fien. He’ll need to find that magic again, because the Twins should have other options. The unexpected bad surprise was Kevin Jepsen giving up a walk and two singles to lose the game after getting two quick outs. I don’t know that we need to sound any alarms. It started because he fell behind 3-1 and ball four, which put the (eventually game-winning) runner on base, looked like a strike. The two singles were “diamond cutters,” well hit singles up the middle, but also the sort of hit that relievers just occasionally give up. Finally, it’s worth noting that the Twins lead-off candidates, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton, were 0-7 combined. Dozier got a couple of high fastballs that were to his liking, but popped them up instead of driving them into the left field seats. Buxton struck out all three times he came to the plate. Each was followed with lots of reassuring tweets that “Buxton WILL hit.” He will, but that isn’t the question. The question is whether or not he’ll require a trip to Rochester before he makes the needed adjustment. The Rest 1. The Twins tying run scored on a play that baseball geeks like to debate. With runners on 2nd and 3rd base and one out, Kurt Suzuki hit a deep fly ball to left field that was foul but in play. The Orioles left fielder, Joey Rickard, caught it in foul ground, which allowed Byung-Ho Park to tag up and score from third base. Had Rickard just let the ball drop, it would have been a 1-2 count on Suzuki but the one-run lead would have been maintained. I suspect the usual logic is that unless it is the game-winning run, that’s exactly how it should be played. But I checked out FanGraph’s Win Probability Play Log to see how that catch affected the game. The answer? It didn’t. With runners one 2nd and 3rd and one out, nursing a one run lead in the top of the seventh, the home team wins the game 52.4% of the time. And with a tie game, two outs and a runner on second, they win…. 52.6% of the time. It’s essentially a wash either way Rickard played it. 2. The other big story of the game was the rain delay, which just ended up weird. The Orioles had their Opening Day festivities, but then delayed the start of the game by one hour and 40 minutes, most of which was dry. Then they started the game which went two innings before it started to rain and the umpires delayed the game. That lasted one hour and 10 minutes, and then the game started again and was played straight through without the starting pitchers. The issue of a rain delay is a little complicated because the person who has the authority to delay the game changes when the first pitch is thrown. Before the first pitch, the home team gets to decide if the game should be delayed. After the first pitch, it’s solely in the umpires’ hands. So it isn’t too surprising that the Orioles, who likely were trying to make sure their fans got to see the game they paid for, didn’t turn it over to the umpires early. What’s weird is that they started it in between storm fronts, where they lost control anyway. Click here to view the article