Search the Community

At spring training, we were all excited about the Bomba Squad with Josh Donaldson. How many runs would the offense score? Instead, to all of our surprise, the Twins success in 2020 largely came as a result of very good pitching. The team has a Big Three going into the offseason, but how might they replace Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill in their starting rotation? Free Agent Starting Pitchers at a Glance The Need: The Twins have Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda at the top of their 2021 rotation board. Randy Dobnak had one of the best ERAs in baseball through the first five or six weeks of the season. While the likes of Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer are options for the team’s fifth starter job, and the Twins have some very intriguing, exciting prospects getting closer, there would appear to be a need for one, and maybe two, starting pitchers this offseason. The Market (This list is not comprehensive): Trevor BauerMasahiro TanakaMarcus StromanJames PaxtonJake OdorizziJose QuintanaRobbie RayKevin GausmanMike MinorAlex WoodJulio TeheranTyler ChatwoodGarrett RichardsRick PorcelloRich HillMike FiersJeff SamardzijaDrew SmylyBrett AndersonTaijuan WalkerMichael WachaBrad Peacock Our Targets: Mike Minor Age: 32 Former Team: Oakland 2020 Stats: 56.2 IP, 5.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Coming off of an All Star 2019 campaign with the Rangers, Minor struggled to a 1-6 record despite a career high in strikeout rate. The former first-round pick from Vanderbilt features four pitches. He saw his velocity dip a bit in 2020. Estimated 2021 Salary: $10 million Marcus Stroman Age: 29 Former Team: NY Mets 2019 Stats: 184.1 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 (opted out in 2020) Why He’s a Fit: Stroman stayed on the Mets roster (Injured List) just long enough so that he could opt out and still become a free agent. The former top pick from Duke debuted in 2014 has consistently put up solid numbers and, when healthy, he eats innings. His 7.8 K/9 in 2019 was easily the best of his career, but he gets good fastball movement and gets a lot of ground balls. Estimated 2021 Salary: $13 million Trevor Bauer Age: 29 Former Team: Cincinnati 2020 Stats: 73.0 IP, 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Because he is one of the Top 3-4 pitchers in baseball. Bauer should be the NL Cy Young winner for 2020 when he put up the remarkable stats for the Reds. He will still be just 30 years old in 2021. There is the perceived Derek Falvey connection as well. Basically, how would a rotation of Bauer-Maeda-Berrios-Pineda-Dobnak look? That said, could the Twins do anything else this offseason if they signed Bauer? Estimated 2021 Salary: $30 million Drew Smyly Age: 31 Former Team: San Francisco 2020 Stats: 26.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Smyly came up as a top prospect of the Tigers, got traded and then the injuries came. He missed the entire 2017 and 2018 seasons. He returned in 2019 with a 6.24 ERA over 114 innings, though he struck out 120 batters. He pitch adjust 26 1/3 innings in 2020, but he had an incredible 42 strikeouts. His fastball velocity was up nearly three mph compared to the rest of his career. Estimated 2021 Salary: $4 million Kevin Gausman Age: 29 Former Team: San Francisco 2020 Stats: 59.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Gausman was a top pitching prospect from LSU when he was the 4th overall pick in the 2012 draft. He spent years in Baltimore unable to take his talent to a next level. In his time with the O’s, he topped out at 8.7 K/9, a solid number. The last two years, that number has increased to 10.0 K/9 in 2019 and 11.9 K/9 in 2020. He’s always had good control and he still throws 95 mph with the fastball and throws four pitches. Estimated 2021 Salary: $10 million Robbie Ray Age: 29 Former Team: Toronto 2020 Stats: 51.2 IP, 6.62 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 7.8 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Ray had a rough 2020 season posting an ERA and a WHIP well worse than anything previously in his career. However, his K/9 rates since 2016 are 11.3, 12.1, 12.0, 12.1, and it was still 11.9 in 2020. Ray threw 93.7 mph fastballs, consistent with his entire career. He threw 31% sliders and 16% curveballs, so I am quite intrigued by what Wes Johnson and the Twins pitching gurus might be able to do with him. Estimated 2021 Salary: $10 million Brett Anderson Age: 32 Former Team: Milwaukee 2020 Stats: 47.0 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Anderson has always been an intriguing pitcher going way back, but he just was unable to stay healthy most years. In 2019, he made 31 starts. It was just the third season in which he had more than 19 starts since his debut season in 2009. And in 2020, he made ten starts. It sure sees he’s been around forever, but he’ll spend the entire 2021 season at age 33. He rarely hits 90 mph (though that’s not new) and his 6.1 K/9 was higher than all but one of his previous six seasons. Estimated 2021 Salary: $4 million Tyler Chatwood Age: 30 Former Team: Chicago Cubs 2020 Stats: 18.2 IP, 5.30 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: It’s fair to say that things didn’t go as he’d hoped when he signed a big, three-year contract with the Cubs. That first season, he walked way too many. The next season, he worked out of the bullpen. In 2020, he made just five starts before experiencing a forearm/elbow injury. So, why is he a fit? I mean, those strikeouts were nice. Estimated 2021 Salary: $6 million Mike Fiers Age: 35 Former Team: Oakland 2020 Stats: 59.0 IP, 4.58 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 Why He’s a Fit: Veteran of 10 big league seasons has gone 21-7 over the past two seasons, though his numbers in 2020 with the A’s were not great. He throws strikes, and he is a veteran. He could be a Homer Bailey type signing for veteran leadership, but will his “tattling” on his former Astros teammates hurt him in the industry now that he is a free agent? Could that bring down his asking price, and if so, he’s not a bad #5 starter for any team. Estimated 2021 Salary: $5 million Let us know in the comments who you like at these positions, or if you'd rather stick with Rosario and Cruz. In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming: Ep 1: (Thurs, 10/8)Ep 2: (Tues, 10/13)Ep 3: (Thurs, 10/15)Ep 4: (Tues, 10/20)Ep 5: (Thurs, 10/22)Ep 6: (Tues, 10/27)Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29)Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5)Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10)Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article